Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
San Antonio Slayer
-Aldridge would score +20 with those constant pickandpops but I can't imagine a go-to scorer in Pop's team especially with such a roster.
-I think Pop's usual idea is developing new players, not sitting them out. Austin Daye was a nightmare even when he got reasonable minutes, Baynes and Ayers got their minutes too despite healthy Splitter. I am sure new youngsters will play a lot and Green's and Kawhi's playing time would be the same.
-There is no way Aldridge would play 35 minutes at PF in regular season games with healthy West, Bonner, Diaw. All the new "old" guys can play and pass, so mixed with Diaw, Patty and Manu the bench and team will increase the pace even more than we could imagine.
This TBH. Bench will play. Pop always plays the long game: keeping guys healthy and bouncy for the playoffs, not running guys into the ground who will then flameout. You could argue a number of play-off teams have flamed out in recent years because of lack of bench support, injuries or some guys having had too much of a burden. Regular season is when you find out who among the new kids is going to give you some energy when the team needs it.
Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seventyniner
Much of this thread is an exercise in futility. Here are the Spurs' per-game averages from last season:
http://i58.tinypic.com/2hplpg5.png
That last column adds up to 129.9. Just think about that for a second.
Forecasting individual per-game averages is fine. Trying to make them add up to a "reasonable" number like 103 or 106 doesn't work unless you assume that every player will play every game. We all know that isn't going to happen.
I thought of that when I was considering doing a forecast. I was considering doing averages whether the player DNP'd or not. But I figured that and my predictions might not go over too well, so I just took a pass. :lol
Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
cd021
Its going to be interesting to see the bigs minutes distribution between LMA, TD, BD, and DW
Aldridge will probably play center for stretches with Diaw or West at the 4.
I'm expecting about 33 mpg for Aldridge. 28 mpg at the 4 and 5 at the 5.
PF
LMA-28
West-20
C
Duncan-27
LMA-5
Diaw-16(With rest games Diaw would average more than 16 mpg.)
This is what I'm curious about as well..:toast
Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Spurtacular
I thought of that when I was considering doing a forecast. I was considering doing averages whether the player DNP'd or not. But I figured that and my predictions might not go over too well, so I just took a pass. :lol
You would have to predict how many points the team will average (let's say 105), multiply by 82 (8610), decide how many points to assign to each player and how many games they'll each play, and then divide to get their averages. Unless you assume every player plays all 82, the averages will add up to more than 105.
Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seventyniner
You would have to predict how many points the team will average (let's say 105), multiply by 82 (8610), decide how many points to assign to each player and how many games they'll each play, and then divide to get their averages. Unless you assume every player plays all 82, the averages will add up to more than 105.
No, I was saying counting a DNP as a zero and game played. So, players with high DNPs would have significantly reduced averages.
Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Spurtacular
No, I was saying counting a DNP as a zero and game played. So, players with high DNPs would have significantly reduced averages.
Yes, that would work. But if a key player misses a bunch of games due to injury, his average would be skewed. Example: a 20 PPG scorer misses half the season, this method gives him an average of 10, which drastically understates his importance to the offense.
Re: Point distribution next year..IMO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Seventyniner
Yes, that would work. But if a key player misses a bunch of games due to injury, his average would be skewed. Example: a 20 PPG scorer misses half the season, this method gives him an average of 10, which drastically understates his importance to the offense.
That's what makes it kind of fun. Guessing production and durability. Would want to put KL for 78 games or more or guess that he has another freak injury? Will The Big Three have a record amount of DNPs? Will Jimmer play 10 game or 65? Etc.
