Realistically, what is the Spurs' ceiling for regular season wins this year?

We're 37–6 right now, equaling our best start with the 2011 season thru 45 games (we lost game 46 in 2011, falling to 37–7 that year). Given we have a road-heavy and tougher schedule in front of us (all 4 left against GSW, the @Cleveland game, 3 left against OKC and LAC) we're not going to sniff 70 wins. But do we have a chance to break our all-time record of 63 wins in the ill-fated 2006 season? I think we can maybe get 64, but it's not going to be easy. The main thing is we need to stay in the hunt with the Dubs and see how the chips fall. Also, maintaining HCA over the Thunder and Cavs should be a top priority.


I'm going to go with 62–20

Ceiling is 70 . Realistically we will get 65 or so. Warriors will lock up the west by the last few weeks of regular season and we will likely have 2nd seed locked up

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Originally Posted by steeledl

Ceiling is 70 . Realistically we will get 65 or so. Warriors will lock up the west by the last few weeks of regular season and we will likely have 2nd seed locked up

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But will we have the 2nd overall seed locked up? We've seen how not having HCA in the Finals has turned out for us sadly.

68

38. 38 game losing streak coming up on Monday.

70.

I might be an hopeful but I would predict anywhere between 65-70.

They'll get 70

72

I said before the season they would break the franchise mark by a game and I still think its a good prediction. Maybe one more. 65-17 is pretty realistic

65-69.

64-65..

I think we will slightly taper off because OF schedule/Pop resting guys ....Barring injuries 60 win is a lock (we'll have to go 23-16 rest of the way)..

This team is deep and have the top-heaviest talent since 2007 and it has already won quite few "scheduled losses"..7-0 on B2B, because we blew out opponent on first night, thus allowing even Big 3 to play the night after..

63:19 because of Pop resting the boys. But if GS blows some games over the next few weeks and we sniff the top seed, it could very well be about 69:13.

So far it's been good in that the Spurs are able to keep the record and rest.

IF this tendency holds I'd say 67-70.

I don't buy the rest excuse. Pop is scheduling rest on games we can clearly win and we have the best/deepest bench in the league even when Manu only plays 5 mins (against Phoenix last night, by the way, he was nothing special, missed his 2 shots, and we cruised with the youngling that is Slow Mo, the Bobinator, and the Juice in the 4th Q). Our bench is going to swing many "scheduled" rests in our favor, provided Kawhi/LMA are healthy and playing of course. We will also be able to withstand a few non critical bumps and bruises to guys.

I will say 65 wins or higher TBH (unless something catastrophic, that cannot be predicted)

Depends on how GS plays honestly, if hey lose a few games, Pop will push for 1st seed, so we could see 65-70 wins. But if they catch fire again, Pop will focus on health over record and we'll end up around 61-65. Pretty damn good really.

I do not know about the record, but we will not catch the Warriors.

Now, I'm basing this on your game-thread commentary, I'm also going with 37. You've convinced me they're done. Blow it up. Who's the number one pick in the draft this year?

We might not catch the Warriors but we should have an eye on HC vs Cleveland. Spurs already 5 games up in the loss column..

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Originally Posted by Fireball

I do not know about the record, but we will not catch the Warriors.

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It's a long season... everything is possible. As to the ceiling, I'd say 65.

Literally, it's 76.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Literally, it's 76.

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This guy understand English

Barring major injury, I say 70-72. It's like a race, draft the leader all the way to the final stretch, then make your move, and then pass them at the wire.

can the season start already?

I'm guessing both the Spurs and Warriors are going to end up around 66-68 wins.

I think low end 63, upper limit 68. They win tonight, go between 5-6 and 7-4 against GS, OKC, LAC, and Cavs. Go between 20-7 and 23-4 against the rest. I don't think there will be a big drop off (except for a major injury, of course) since Pop has been resting guys pretty steadily already and there has not been much of a drop off with the remainder of the group. When you talk drop off for an elite team it doesn't mean all of a sudden they are giving up 105 points to the Lakers.

celing 1st place, floor 2nd place.

Ceiling is 70. I'm gonna say 67-15

Kerr is back on the bench..He's a Pop disciple in one way..Expect more rest for the Dubs key players especially if Curry shin acts up again.

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Originally Posted by PrimeMinister

Ceiling is 70. I'm gonna say 67-15

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What is the highest all-time record for a second seed? :lol

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Originally Posted by UNT Eagles 2016

But will we have the 2nd overall seed locked up? We've seen how not having HCA in the Finals has turned out for us sadly.

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That was under the 2-3-2 format. Playing 6 and 7 on the road was a tall task, even with a 3-2 lead.

Cleveland's not catching the Spurs. They'll sniff 55-60 wins but the Spurs will be anywhere from 10-15 games better, barring collapse. This team could win 70, but they likely won't simply because it isn't necessary.

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

I'm guessing both the Spurs and Warriors are going to end up around 66-68 wins.

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47 wins gets to playoffs.

55 gets a top 4 spot.

Sitting at 37-6, 39 games left 20-19 gives us a top 4. Win 75 % of remaining games, gives us 29 more wins.

66-16 would be a perfect record for the Spurs. 50-50 chance of #1 seed.

:lol They're not going to lose 20 games.

They're on pace to lose just a few more, 10-13 overall.

There would have to be a huge drop in performance for them to drop 20 games after being so consistent all year long.

It would take a 2011 Red Sox type collapse for them to lose that many games.

76-6 in the regular season. 16-0 in the playoffs. That is the ceiling and it is not debatable.

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Originally Posted by Reck

:lol They're not going to lose 20 games.

They're on pace to lose just a few more, 10-13 overall.

There would have to be a huge drop in performance for them to drop 20 games after being so consistent all year long.

It would take a 2011 Red Sox type collapse for them to lose that many games.

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Right. That's why I said 65-69.

The 2010-2011 squad started 37-6, fell apart due to injuries, lost 6 in a row and 8 of 12 to end the season, and finished 61-21. Barring major injuries, the 2016 Spurs aren't going to finish 24-15. This team is much better and deeper and 2011.

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Originally Posted by Reck

:lol They're not going to lose 20 games.

They're on pace to lose just a few more, 10-13 overall.

There would have to be a huge drop in performance for them to drop 20 games after being so consistent all year long.

It would take a 2011 Red Sox type collapse for them to lose that many games.

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This. It's already pass half the season, if you're saying they'll lose 20 then they sure are not going to look good coming into the playoffs.

They will probably go 68-14. They'e played 44 games already. If they finish the 60 game mark with only 8 loses. They will win 70.

65-67 range is where I expect (or at least hope) them to finish up assuming they remain healthy. I'd say 70 wins is their absolute ceiling, but that's not remotely realistic. Would require them to essentially maintain their current winning percentage while playing a far tougher schedule.

With 38 games remaining, over a quarter of those (10) are against GS/OKC/Cleveland/LAC. They also play Houston twice, Dallas twice, Toronto, and a few other decent teams. Only dropping 6 games in that span would be pretty insane.

*Knock on wood* I realistically can't see us losing more than 10 more games at most, especially if we are chasing the Warriors until the final week of the season for the best record.. 5-10 more losses would be more like it. 71-11 to 66-16 would be nice. Of course the meltdowns will continue even after some meaning less losses.

Between 64-68 wins, not enough to catch the Dubs which might reach 70 wins record, but more than good enough to have home court advantage against any other team outside them.

Rest of season Simulation*:

January:

Mon. 25 at Golden State L
Wed. 27 vs. Houston W
Sat. 30 at Cleveland L

February:

Mon. 1 vs. Orlando W
Wed. 3 vs. New Orleans W
Fri. 5 at Dallas W
Sat. 6 vs. LA Lakers W
Tue. 9 at Miami W
Wed. 10 at Orlando W
Thu. 18 at LA Clippers L
Fri. 19 at LA Lakers W
Sun. 21 at Phoenix W
Wed. 24 at Sacramento W
Thu. 25 at Utah L
Sat. 27 at Houston W

March

Wed. 2 vs. Detroit W
Thu. 3 at New Orleans L
Sat. 5 vs. Sacramento W
Mon. 7 at Indiana W
Tue. 8 at Minnesota W
Thu. 10 vs. Chicago W
Sat. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Tue. 15 vs. LA Clippers W
Thu. 17 vs. Portland W
Sat. 19 vs. Golden State W
Mon. 21 at Charlotte W
Wed. 23 vs. Miami W
Fri. 25 vs. Memphis W
Sat. 26 at Oklahoma City L
Mon. 28 at Memphis W
Wed. 30 vs. New Orleans W

April

Sat. 2 vs. Toronto W
Tue. 5 at Utah L
Thu. 7 at Golden State L
Fri. 8 at Denver W
Sun. 10 vs. Golden State W
Tue. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Wed. 13 at Dallas L

Record last 38 Games: 29-9 ==> 67-15 W-L..

*Assuming similar health record of the first 44 games

I looked at the rest of our schedule, compared back to backs and figured we would lose another 8 games including Monday.

I'd put the over at 70 wins and the under at 66 wins. Realistically I expect us to finish the season 68-14.

My projection is 67, my expectation 64 or 65..

Some of you are confidently saying we won't catch the Warriors. Good thing you guys don't actually play for the team with that loser mentality.

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Originally Posted by spursistan

Rest of season Simulation*:

January:

Mon. 25 at Golden State L
Wed. 27 vs. Houston W
Sat. 30 at Cleveland L

February:

Mon. 1 vs. Orlando W
Wed. 3 vs. New Orleans W
Fri. 5 at Dallas W
Sat. 6 vs. LA Lakers W
Tue. 9 at Miami W
Wed. 10 at Orlando W
Thu. 18 at LA Clippers L
Fri. 19 at LA Lakers W
Sun. 21 at Phoenix W
Wed. 24 at Sacramento W
Thu. 25 at Utah L
Sat. 27 at Houston W

March

Wed. 2 vs. Detroit W
Thu. 3 at New Orleans L
Sat. 5 vs. Sacramento W
Mon. 7 at Indiana W
Tue. 8 at Minnesota W
Thu. 10 vs. Chicago W
Sat. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Tue. 15 vs. LA Clippers W
Thu. 17 vs. Portland W
Sat. 19 vs. Golden State W
Mon. 21 at Charlotte W
Wed. 23 vs. Miami W
Fri. 25 vs. Memphis W
Sat. 26 at Oklahoma City L
Mon. 28 at Memphis W
Wed. 30 vs. New Orleans W

April

Sat. 2 vs. Toronto W
Tue. 5 at Utah L
Thu. 7 at Golden State L
Fri. 8 at Denver W
Sun. 10 vs. Golden State W
Tue. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Wed. 13 at Dallas L

Record last 38 Games: 29-9 ==> 67-15 W-L..

*Assuming similar health record of the first 44 games

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You think we're gonna lose BOTH game at Utah? A bit pessimistic imo...

The last 3 games will depend on the ranking at that time, if the 1st or 2nd in a guaranty, Pop will rest the main guys and I don't think we can win if OKC and Dallas are fighting for their ranking.