Realistically, what is the Spurs' ceiling for regular season wins this year?

celing 1st place, floor 2nd place.

Ceiling is 70. I'm gonna say 67-15

Kerr is back on the bench..He's a Pop disciple in one way..Expect more rest for the Dubs key players especially if Curry shin acts up again.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by PrimeMinister

Ceiling is 70. I'm gonna say 67-15

---

What is the highest all-time record for a second seed? :lol

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by UNT Eagles 2016

But will we have the 2nd overall seed locked up? We've seen how not having HCA in the Finals has turned out for us sadly.

---

That was under the 2-3-2 format. Playing 6 and 7 on the road was a tall task, even with a 3-2 lead.

Cleveland's not catching the Spurs. They'll sniff 55-60 wins but the Spurs will be anywhere from 10-15 games better, barring collapse. This team could win 70, but they likely won't simply because it isn't necessary.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by baseline bum

I'm guessing both the Spurs and Warriors are going to end up around 66-68 wins.

---

47 wins gets to playoffs.

55 gets a top 4 spot.

Sitting at 37-6, 39 games left 20-19 gives us a top 4. Win 75 % of remaining games, gives us 29 more wins.

66-16 would be a perfect record for the Spurs. 50-50 chance of #1 seed.

:lol They're not going to lose 20 games.

They're on pace to lose just a few more, 10-13 overall.

There would have to be a huge drop in performance for them to drop 20 games after being so consistent all year long.

It would take a 2011 Red Sox type collapse for them to lose that many games.

76-6 in the regular season. 16-0 in the playoffs. That is the ceiling and it is not debatable.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Reck

:lol They're not going to lose 20 games.

They're on pace to lose just a few more, 10-13 overall.

There would have to be a huge drop in performance for them to drop 20 games after being so consistent all year long.

It would take a 2011 Red Sox type collapse for them to lose that many games.

---

Right. That's why I said 65-69.

The 2010-2011 squad started 37-6, fell apart due to injuries, lost 6 in a row and 8 of 12 to end the season, and finished 61-21. Barring major injuries, the 2016 Spurs aren't going to finish 24-15. This team is much better and deeper and 2011.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Reck

:lol They're not going to lose 20 games.

They're on pace to lose just a few more, 10-13 overall.

There would have to be a huge drop in performance for them to drop 20 games after being so consistent all year long.

It would take a 2011 Red Sox type collapse for them to lose that many games.

---

This. It's already pass half the season, if you're saying they'll lose 20 then they sure are not going to look good coming into the playoffs.

They will probably go 68-14. They'e played 44 games already. If they finish the 60 game mark with only 8 loses. They will win 70.

65-67 range is where I expect (or at least hope) them to finish up assuming they remain healthy. I'd say 70 wins is their absolute ceiling, but that's not remotely realistic. Would require them to essentially maintain their current winning percentage while playing a far tougher schedule.

With 38 games remaining, over a quarter of those (10) are against GS/OKC/Cleveland/LAC. They also play Houston twice, Dallas twice, Toronto, and a few other decent teams. Only dropping 6 games in that span would be pretty insane.

*Knock on wood* I realistically can't see us losing more than 10 more games at most, especially if we are chasing the Warriors until the final week of the season for the best record.. 5-10 more losses would be more like it. 71-11 to 66-16 would be nice. Of course the meltdowns will continue even after some meaning less losses.

Between 64-68 wins, not enough to catch the Dubs which might reach 70 wins record, but more than good enough to have home court advantage against any other team outside them.

Rest of season Simulation*:

January:

Mon. 25 at Golden State L
Wed. 27 vs. Houston W
Sat. 30 at Cleveland L

February:

Mon. 1 vs. Orlando W
Wed. 3 vs. New Orleans W
Fri. 5 at Dallas W
Sat. 6 vs. LA Lakers W
Tue. 9 at Miami W
Wed. 10 at Orlando W
Thu. 18 at LA Clippers L
Fri. 19 at LA Lakers W
Sun. 21 at Phoenix W
Wed. 24 at Sacramento W
Thu. 25 at Utah L
Sat. 27 at Houston W

March

Wed. 2 vs. Detroit W
Thu. 3 at New Orleans L
Sat. 5 vs. Sacramento W
Mon. 7 at Indiana W
Tue. 8 at Minnesota W
Thu. 10 vs. Chicago W
Sat. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Tue. 15 vs. LA Clippers W
Thu. 17 vs. Portland W
Sat. 19 vs. Golden State W
Mon. 21 at Charlotte W
Wed. 23 vs. Miami W
Fri. 25 vs. Memphis W
Sat. 26 at Oklahoma City L
Mon. 28 at Memphis W
Wed. 30 vs. New Orleans W

April

Sat. 2 vs. Toronto W
Tue. 5 at Utah L
Thu. 7 at Golden State L
Fri. 8 at Denver W
Sun. 10 vs. Golden State W
Tue. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Wed. 13 at Dallas L

Record last 38 Games: 29-9 ==> 67-15 W-L..

*Assuming similar health record of the first 44 games

I looked at the rest of our schedule, compared back to backs and figured we would lose another 8 games including Monday.

I'd put the over at 70 wins and the under at 66 wins. Realistically I expect us to finish the season 68-14.

My projection is 67, my expectation 64 or 65..

Some of you are confidently saying we won't catch the Warriors. Good thing you guys don't actually play for the team with that loser mentality.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by spursistan

Rest of season Simulation*:

January:

Mon. 25 at Golden State L
Wed. 27 vs. Houston W
Sat. 30 at Cleveland L

February:

Mon. 1 vs. Orlando W
Wed. 3 vs. New Orleans W
Fri. 5 at Dallas W
Sat. 6 vs. LA Lakers W
Tue. 9 at Miami W
Wed. 10 at Orlando W
Thu. 18 at LA Clippers L
Fri. 19 at LA Lakers W
Sun. 21 at Phoenix W
Wed. 24 at Sacramento W
Thu. 25 at Utah L
Sat. 27 at Houston W

March

Wed. 2 vs. Detroit W
Thu. 3 at New Orleans L
Sat. 5 vs. Sacramento W
Mon. 7 at Indiana W
Tue. 8 at Minnesota W
Thu. 10 vs. Chicago W
Sat. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Tue. 15 vs. LA Clippers W
Thu. 17 vs. Portland W
Sat. 19 vs. Golden State W
Mon. 21 at Charlotte W
Wed. 23 vs. Miami W
Fri. 25 vs. Memphis W
Sat. 26 at Oklahoma City L
Mon. 28 at Memphis W
Wed. 30 vs. New Orleans W

April

Sat. 2 vs. Toronto W
Tue. 5 at Utah L
Thu. 7 at Golden State L
Fri. 8 at Denver W
Sun. 10 vs. Golden State W
Tue. 12 vs. Oklahoma City W
Wed. 13 at Dallas L

Record last 38 Games: 29-9 ==> 67-15 W-L..

*Assuming similar health record of the first 44 games

---

You think we're gonna lose BOTH game at Utah? A bit pessimistic imo...

The last 3 games will depend on the ranking at that time, if the 1st or 2nd in a guaranty, Pop will rest the main guys and I don't think we can win if OKC and Dallas are fighting for their ranking.