Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
GSH
If Duncan had opted not to play his senior year, another team would have gotten him. In the fucking lottery.
Even if you win a lottery pick, your chances of getting a franchise player are very small. Smaller than what people seem to think. The draft lottery is just playing for a small chance to have a small chance at a great player. Duncan is the rare exception to tanking-for-the-lottery working out. In that single season, they knew Duncan would be available, so they tanked for him. He was a rare player who everyone knew would be a Hall of Famer. Over a longer time window, a player like that is so rare that it's hardly worth "blindly tanking" in the hopes of landing one.
Maybe you'll agree with a more moderate statement: the draft isn't as reliable as people believe because it's difficult to predict how players will develop over the course of 10-20 years. I'm not even criticizing GMs here; it's inherently a difficult job.
Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arcadian
Even if you win a lottery pick, your chances of getting a franchise player are very small. Smaller than what people seem to think. The draft lottery is just playing for a small chance to have a small chance at a great player. I'm sure you know how probability works. p(A+B) = p(A)*p(B). Duncan is the rare exception to tanking-for-the-lottery working out. In that single season, they knew Duncan would be available, so they tanked for him. And he was a rare player who everyone knew would be a Hall of Famer. Over a longer time window, a player like that is so rare that it's hardly worth "blindly tanking" in the hopes of landing one.
I'm frankly surprised that more people aren't agreeing with this. Maybe you'll be more likely to agree if I make a more moderate statement: the draft isn't as reliable as people believe because it's difficult to predict how players will develop over the course of 10-20 years. I'm not even criticizing GMs here; it's inherently a difficult job.
Lebron Blake KD Wade AD(overrated) are all franchise players
Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arcadian
Even if you win a lottery pick, your chances of getting a franchise player are very small. Smaller than what people seem to think. The draft lottery is just playing for a small chance to have a small chance at a great player. I'm sure you know how probability works. p(A+B) = p(A)*p(B). Duncan is the rare exception to tanking-for-the-lottery working out. In that single season, they knew Duncan would be available, so they tanked for him. And he was a rare player who everyone knew would be a Hall of Famer. Over a longer time window, a player like that is so rare that it's hardly worth "blindly tanking" in the hopes of landing one.
I'm frankly surprised that more people aren't agreeing with this. Maybe you'll be more likely to agree if I make a more moderate statement: the draft isn't as reliable as people believe because it's difficult to predict how players will develop over the course of 10-20 years. I'm not even criticizing GMs here; it's inherently a difficult job.
Lebron Blake KD Wade AD(overrated) are all franchise players
Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
100%duncan
Lebron Blake KD Wade AD(overrated) are all franchise players
Of those, only Lebron is on Duncan's level. Wade only won titles as a sidekick. The rest haven't.
Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arcadian
Of those, only Lebron is on Duncan's level. Wade only won titles as a sidekick. The rest haven't.
Never said they were. Just refuting what you said that the chances of getting a franchise player in the draft is very small which is imho untrue since there have been a handful although not all are that successful yet.
Also, wade won as alpha in 06, wouldve been fmvp in 2011 if lebron stopped choking. But thats beyond my point
Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Arcadian
Even if you win a lottery pick, your chances of getting a franchise player are very small. Smaller than what people seem to think. The draft lottery is just playing for a small chance to have a small chance at a great player. Duncan is the rare exception to tanking-for-the-lottery working out. In that single season, they knew Duncan would be available, so they tanked for him. He was a rare player who everyone knew would be a Hall of Famer. Over a longer time window, a player like that is so rare that it's hardly worth "blindly tanking" in the hopes of landing one.
Maybe you'll agree with a more moderate statement: the draft isn't as reliable as people believe because it's difficult to predict how players will develop over the course of 10-20 years. I'm not even criticizing GMs here; it's inherently a difficult job.
Duncan was an obvious choice because he had stayed for 4 years in college and everyone knew exactly how good he was, what he could do and that it would translate to the NBA level easily right away. It was very different and much less risky than with the one and done players that usually get picked more on potential.
Re: Is building a winning and competitive "habit" more important than realism?
I think the competitive habit is always important, especially to the NBA at large. Mediocre teams with a good culture can start to build into contenders and attract some decent players in free agency.
Buildinv a good culture focussed on success will attract more talent. Then because your culture is good, it means when you get your talent, you can turn that into playoff runs.
That culture is important for the long-term. Talent can't sustain itself forever. That's why no team gets good and stays good on talent alone - it's what that idiot Morey has been doing in Houston for ages now and it won't ever work. McDonough started the trend in Phoenix now too.
Morey/McDonough just sells out whoever he can to get the biggest names and then tries to get as many people on the roster who parse well on an analytics spreadsheet. The result is always the same: a bunch of underachieving (relative to talent and potential) NBA misfits. Prospects aren't treated with respect to room for growth - they're just trading chips.
Teams like Charlotte, Boston, Indiana, Toronto, Pistons have been building their philosophies for the long haul. They're doing well now and while they're not world-beaters just yet, they've all got some real futures ahead because they've stayed focussed on good winning habits for the last few years and it's paying off.
