538: Spurs with 28 percent shot at winning the title

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Originally Posted by Spurs 4 The Win

I may be in the minority but I think the Clippers have a decent shot of knocking them off and if not, at least hobbling them. There is a lot of bad blood in that rivalry and the two teams have been trending opposite directions since the last 10 games of the season.

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I agree with you. Clips could be pretty physical with GSW.

The Spurs are winning it all this year. Book it. I'd put that at 100%.

I think the numbers consider the potential of upsets on the other side of the bracket also. So while we might be at 98%->65%->30%->75% against the Grizzlies, Thunder, Warriors, and Cavs, those numbers have to be adjusted to account for those 4 teams losing. I'm not going to run the numbers but let's say it's a 90% chance we play OKC (aka they beat Dallas) and a 85% chance that GS beats BOTH Houston and LAC, those percentages need to be included in the estimates, as do the odds we beat the teams that upset them.

It's 75% until we face Eliancito. Then it drops to 2.8%

I'd go:

100%
65%
20%
75%

that puts us roughly at 10%. Ew.

Anyone have the payout for Spurs winning the grizzly series at start of series? I have to think it was -5000 or more. My local sports book didn't take bets on our series but I'm sure someone has a line.