Flynn in major trouble for speaking to Russia about sanctions

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

"friendly avatar bet. Winner chooses losers avatar, you determine the length of the terms."

I am not really interested in that as a bet.

I would vastly prefer that you apply the principles of critical thinking to an op-ed piece, or something you post, correctly identifying any potential logical fallacies. I am interested much less in embarrassing you, than in your well being and self-improvement. FWIW.

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I'm much more interested in embarrassing you. Take or leave the original bet.

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Originally Posted by TSA

Time to move on Blake, you've even got RandomGuy confused.

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Right. ..it's RG that's confused.

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Originally Posted by djohn2oo8

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they really really want Trash gone ASAP

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Originally Posted by TSA

I didn't type any of that lol

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hmm.

So someone else observed you engaging in deeply flawed reasoning and ignoring simple requests for information.

At least I am not the only one who noticed.

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Originally Posted by TSA

I'm much more interested in embarrassing you. Take or leave the original bet.

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You would be.

Leave. I am not a gambler, sorry.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

If your theory were concrete, testable, and straightforward, it would be a simple matter to outline it, including how it could be falsified.

I have done exactly this. I do not want to believe in anything false, so I make sure what I believe can be tested. If it can't be tested, I do not hold it as true, and if it is actively falsified, I abandon the proposition. If you cared about the truth, you should be able to do the same.

Search functions on this board do not lend themselves easily to find such information, even were one to want to see what your actual opinion is.

You could, quite easily, have re-typed that theory in the time/effort you have spent typing posts that say "I have already posted that, so I am not answering it".

This suggests the hypothesis:

You have no concrete, testable, straightforward theory.

Continued failure to state a clear, coherent is fully consistant with this hypothesis. It can easily be falsified by you typing up a clear, concrete, testable theory. All you really have to do is type something up in a few minutes, then copy and paste that if someone asks in the future. Easy.

I would recommend including an unusual word, such as xylophone, or something similar, to help with any future search in case you want to find it again.

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-Obama administration was trying to help Clinton secure the Presidency
-plan was to get dirt on Trump through intelligence agencies
-Obama loosened rules for unmasking to make dissemination easier
-first attempt for FISA warrant denied
-second attempt using Dem paid for Fusion GPS unverified dossier successful
-Trump team now under surveillance
-ability to monitor and leak to press as needed
-DNC "hacked"
-DNC hires Crowdstrike
-Crowdstrike sees it was an inside leak, not a hack
-creates Russian templates/fingerprints to mimic a hack
-Fusion GPS sets up meeting with their Russian lawyer and Trump Jr
-DNC denies FBI/CIA/DHS access to servers to hide Crowdstrike "hack" manipulation
-FBI forced to use Crowdstrike report
-Russia blamed for hack
-Trump accused of colluding with Russia
-Trump Jr meeting used as proof of collusion
-Trump winning fucks up everything
-now all of the surveillance/unmasking/dissemination that was supposed to be swept under the rug after Hillary won is out in the open
-everyone involved from Lynch, Rice, Wasserman Schultz, Comey, Podesta, Mook, etc trying to cover their own ass

My theory is being tested as we speak. The focus of both intelligence committees has shifted after the testimony by Browder linking Fusion GPS directly to Russian agents. Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson testimony will further test my theory.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

You would be.

Leave. I am not a gambler, sorry.

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So be it.

I still look forward to embarrassing you.

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Originally Posted by TSA

-Obama administration was trying to help Clinton secure the Presidency
-plan was to get dirt on Trump through intelligence agencies
-Obama loosened rules for unmasking to make dissemination easier
-first attempt for FISA warrant denied
-second attempt using Dem paid for Fusion GPS unverified dossier successful
-Trump team now under surveillance
-ability to monitor and leak to press as needed
-DNC "hacked"
-DNC hires Crowdstrike
-Crowdstrike sees it was an inside leak, not a hack
-creates Russian templates/fingerprints to mimic a hack
-Fusion GPS sets up meeting with their Russian lawyer and Trump Jr
-DNC denies FBI/CIA/DHS access to servers to hide Crowdstrike "hack" manipulation
-FBI forced to use Crowdstrike report
-Russia blamed for hack
-Trump accused of colluding with Russia
-Trump Jr meeting used as proof of collusion
-Trump winning fucks up everything
-now all of the surveillance/unmasking/dissemination that was supposed to be swept under the rug after Hillary won is out in the open
-everyone involved from Lynch, Rice, Wasserman Schultz, Comey, Podesta, Mook, etc trying to cover their own ass

My theory is being tested as we speak. The focus of both intelligence committees has shifted after the testimony by Browder linking Fusion GPS directly to Russian agents. Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson testimony will further test my theory.

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This is in somewhat of a chronological order

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Originally Posted by djohn2oo8

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Brilliant idea. Let's jump start a nuclear arms race.

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Originally Posted by TSA

How about you start with ANY evidence he's been compromised.

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Circumstantial evidence is evidence that relies on an inference to connect it to a conclusion of fact—like a fingerprint at the scene of a crime. By contrast, direct evidence supports the truth of an assertion directly—i.e., without need for any additional evidence or inference.

On its own, circumstantial evidence allows for more than one explanation. Different pieces of circumstantial evidence may be required, so that each corroborates the conclusions drawn from the others. Together, they may more strongly support one particular inference over another. An explanation involving circumstantial evidence becomes more likely once alternative explanations have been ruled out[citation needed].

Circumstantial evidence allows a trier of fact to infer that a fact exists.[1] In criminal law, the inference is made by the trier of fact in order to support the truth of an assertion (of guilt or absence of guilt).

Testimony can be direct evidence or it can be circumstantial. For instance, a witness saying that she saw a defendant stab a victim is providing direct evidence. By contrast, a witness who says that she saw the defendant enter a house, that she heard screaming, and that she saw the defendant leave with a bloody knife gives circumstantial evidence. It is the necessity for inference, and not the obviousness of a conclusion, that determines whether evidence is circumstantial.

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SEE FACTS BELOW:

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Originally Posted by djohn2oo8

Your move, Putin'spet.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

But then, predicting what Trump will, or won't do is sort of a mugs game. He never fails to do the stupidest shit possible, just when you think he can't be dumber.

The thing about a good theory though, it that it both explains facts, and you can make testable predictions.

Fact 1:
Russia attempted to hack our electoral process through a multi-pronged attack.

Fact 2:
Donald "look how big my inauguration crowd was" Trump has done nothing but deny this even happened. He has shown no willingness whatsoever to hold Russia to account for anything.

Fact 3:
Donald Trump has a pattern of criticizing anyone, and everyone at the drop of a hat. Allies, enemies, courts, free press, nothing has escaped his remarks and twitter feed, except for ONE/(two) thing(s), and that is Russia/Putin

Fact 4:
Russian efforts appeared designed to support Trump

Fact 5:
Trump directly called on Russia publicly to support his efforts to get elected.

Fact 6:
Donald Trump has gone out of his way to meet and talk with Putin privately in person, with no American witnesses. This is the only leader with which he has acted in this manner.

Theory:
Donald Trump has been compromised in some way. Either he directly owes them money, or they have evidence of some kind of him breaking the law or doing something he does not want others to know about.

This theory explains those facts, and is fully consistent with observed reality.

Prediction:
Donald Trump will take no action personally, nor will he criticize Russia or Putin in any way in regards to the Russian attack on our elections. He may allow his underlings to do some minor, inconsequential stuff, and if forced to do anything by Congress will drag his feet, if not outright attempt to veto any sanctions.


The way to falsify the theory:
1) Trump criticizes Putin/Russia (good)
2) Trump orders/takes action that materially harms Russian interests (definitive)

Bullshit conspiracy theories fail very often because either: they cannot be falsified, or they directly conflict with observed reality. This theory can be falsified, and does not conflict with what we know as fact.

Donald Trump is unpredictable except for Russia.

He may be stupid enough to fire Mueller if Mueller starts asking questions that will expose how he has been compromised.

If he does so, he will be impeached. The Republican party will have almost no choice at that point. Congress will find their spine, because they want to be re-elected, and Trump will have gone too far for all but the most jaded hacks.

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"Trump warns of 'dangerous low' in Russia relations"

See Fact #3

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/03/po...tin-sanctions/

I find the use of the term "dangerous" to be somewhat telling.

He has repeatedly shown the only thing he is ever genuinely concerned about is himself.

At some point, if the Russians do have compromising material, they might decide to release it. From Trump's selfish perspective, bad relations would vastly increase the danger of that material being made public.

One also has to wonder that after Trump is no longer useful to Russia, when that material will find its way into the light of day.

Once Trump is no longer useful to Putin, then it would be in Russia's interests to release it, since the ensuing scandal would presumably damage US democracy, a chief Russian aim.

If the material were personal in nature, i.e. tapes with prostitutes, it would be pretty easy for them to release it at no cost to themselves.

If the material implicated Russians, such as money laundering that would less likely to be released, unless of course the Russian involved were already disgraced or removed from power.

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Originally Posted by TSA

-Obama administration was trying to help Clinton secure the Presidency
-plan was to get dirt on Trump through intelligence agencies
-Obama loosened rules for unmasking to make dissemination easier
-first attempt for FISA warrant denied
-second attempt using Dem paid for Fusion GPS unverified dossier successful
-Trump team now under surveillance
-ability to monitor and leak to press as needed
-DNC "hacked"
-DNC hires Crowdstrike
-Crowdstrike sees it was an inside leak, not a hack
-creates Russian templates/fingerprints to mimic a hack
-Fusion GPS sets up meeting with their Russian lawyer and Trump Jr
-DNC denies FBI/CIA/DHS access to servers to hide Crowdstrike "hack" manipulation
-FBI forced to use Crowdstrike report
-Russia blamed for hack
-Trump accused of colluding with Russia
-Trump Jr meeting used as proof of collusion
-Trump winning fucks up everything
-now all of the surveillance/unmasking/dissemination that was supposed to be swept under the rug after Hillary won is out in the open
-everyone involved from Lynch, Rice, Wasserman Schultz, Comey, Podesta, Mook, etc trying to cover their own ass

My theory is being tested as we speak. The focus of both intelligence committees has shifted after the testimony by Browder linking Fusion GPS directly to Russian agents. Fusion GPS co-founder Glenn Simpson testimony will further test my theory.

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I can see why you wanted pre-approval.

Who are you saying the FISA targets were in the warrant applications of June and October 2016?

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Originally Posted by TSA

So be it.

I still look forward to embarrassing you.

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How exactly would you go about doing that?

Asking for evidence of Trump campaign people looking to collude with the Russian government? :lmao

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-Trump accused of colluding with Russia
-Trump Jr meeting used as proof of collusion
-Trump winning fucks up everything

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That timeline is way off.

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Originally Posted by TSA

-Obama administration was trying to help Clinton secure the Presidency
-plan was to get dirt on Trump through intelligence agencies.

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Please provide evidence of this plan.

You have stated something as fact.

Or is this your operating theory?

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Originally Posted by TSA

This is in somewhat of a chronological order

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Except for the relaxing of unmasking rules was done in 2011 and 2013. Unless you refer to something more specific.

And seriously, IMO its silly to think Obama had to order everyone to investigate the Trump-Russia connection when Uday was setting up secret meetings with Russian government agents in early June. If the Trumps have nothing to hide, they have spent an inordinate amount of time and effort and political capital trying to hide nothing.

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Originally Posted by Adam Lambert

:cry losing his friends

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Dickless obese wimpy whiner

And General McMaster is so terrified of Susan Rice and her dangerous unmasking and leaking that he continues to give her free access to NSA information.

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Almost one month after it was disclosed that former President Obama's National Security Adviser Susan Rice was unmasking members of President Trump’s team and other Americans, Trump’s own national security adviser, H.R. McMaster, sent an official letter giving her unfettered and continuing access to classified information and waiving her “need-to-know” requirement on anything she viewed or received during her tenure, Circa has confirmed.

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https://www.circa.com/story/2017/08/...er-letter-says

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Originally Posted by Pavlov

That timeline is way off.

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Jesus, I tried to help by putting the thing into MS Word, and doing a good faith effort to sift "hypothesis" from proven facts, and it was a total hash.

There is more than one "theory" here, and the entire thing is a jumble. A good brainstorming first draft, but at least an effort to shape something out.

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Originally Posted by TSA

Dem paid for Fusion GPS unverified dossier

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Please provide proof that Democratic party paid for dossier.

A canceled check would be ideal. Verifiable statements or admissions that the dossier was paid for by people in the position to know about it, would also be acceptable.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Jesus, I tried to help by putting the thing into MS Word, and doing a good faith effort to sift "hypothesis" from proven facts, and it was a total hash.

There is more than one "theory" here, and the entire thing is a jumble. A good brainstorming first draft, but at least an effort to shape something out.

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It's not a timeline. And you asked for my theory so of course there are hypothesis in there.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Please provide proof that Democratic party paid for dossier.

A canceled check would be ideal. Verifiable statements or admissions that the dossier was paid for by people in the position to know about it, would also be acceptable.

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I never said the Democratic party paid for it.

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Originally Posted by Pavlov

And seriously, IMO its silly to think Obama had to order everyone to investigate the Trump-Russia connection when Uday was setting up secret meetings with Russian government agents in early June. If the Trumps have nothing to hide, they have spent an inordinate amount of time and effort and political capital trying to hide nothing.

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Uday was setting up meetings or Fusion GPS was setting up meetings?