Someone Convince Me The Grizzlies Shouldn't Be The Overwhelming Favorite

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

:lol

going in.

You missed Memphis in 4.

As a person who routinely bets on games, I'd have a hard time taking Grizzlies money line in any of the games, unless it was at least +200 and at home.

:lol

Forgot to replace Heat with Cavs tbh

:lmao

:bobo

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Originally Posted by Seventyniner

:lol

Forgot to replace Heat with Cavs tbh

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:lol

We have Kawhi and the Grizz struggle with him tbh.

Our threes have to fall, our bigs have to do enough to neutralize their bigs and Kawhi has to be Kawhi. If we cant be what our potential is, it doesnt matter who the team is.

we just have to see ,no point of being negative now when the playoffs haven't even started .

hopefully manu doesn't break his hand, elbow before the series starts.

:lmao OMG some of the posters in this thread :lmao

It's the fucking Grizzlies, tbh.

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...rollThread.jpg

:rollin

Didn't we swept them last year?

The Phoenix.

I know you are parodying Timvp's 2013 post but your prediction is absolutely right...We aren't beating Memphis...

Grizz will be a tough out. They don't get far in the playoffs, but for the most part, they rough you up and make you beat them; they always give energy.

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Originally Posted by mexicanjunior

I know you are parodying Timvp's 2013 post but your prediction is absolutely right...We aren't beating Memphis...

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I was banging my head trying to remember this. I thought it was referring to one of the Heat series or maybe OKC but yes it was Memphis.

Spurs are a slightly better version of the 2013 Grizzlies right now so it should be evenly matched.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.
.

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Spurs-
ORtg-111.4 (7th)
DRtg-103.3 (1st)
Memphis
ORtg-107.8 (17th)
DRtg-107.0 (6th)

Spurs starting lineup is scoring 102 points per 100 possessions (awful) but they are allowing 93.9 points per 100 possessions (fantastic)

It won't be pretty but I don't see how Memphis can score against our starting unit. Memphis' defense has been pretty poor post all star break but they do have Allen to throw on Leonard but I don't expect a repeat of '11

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Originally Posted by timtonymanu

Spurs are a slightly better version of the 2013 Grizzlies right now so it should be evenly matched.

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That Grizzles team didn't have a player of Leonard's magnitude, nor where they as good of an offensive team, or as talented,

Will Murray be cleared to play?

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Originally Posted by spursparker9

Didn't we swept them last year?

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Yeah but they were uhhhh missing a piece or two

I think we win in 6 at the most. I feel yea on Memphis though. It's gonna be a dog fight

Still have hope.
Kawhi is going to have to play like an MVP.
Lamarcus showed some things tonight.
The rest of the team is not sharp.
They need to get it together.
They are a veteran team and thus I would not dismiss them so lightly (in the first round), but they don't have it together right now and are not inspiring that much confidence.

Pop has also taken a very long time to find the identity of this team and it doesn't feel like they quite have it. One feels that there are deep bench guys that could help that will never see the floor bc it's not their time.

If Spurs beat MEM, I'm betting HOU ML on the series .. tbh

Spurs in 7 tbh

:cry Everyone should know every post on this forum
:cry If you respond you're an idiot
:cry because see the first :cry

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Originally Posted by Ron Swanson

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...rollThread.jpg

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:lol

Spurs in 4

Avoid. At. All. Costs.

Sibling rule - Pau won't let little brother beat him.

I think in a playoff stage, we can eliminate both Memphis and the Clippers in 6 games if we can count with our complete roster.

It seems to me that the Spurs are not playing the same way the were playing a few weeks ago when they were chasing the seeding, they are playing a "i won`t show you nothing" game.

how about if the grizz lose the series you have to ask me before you can post.

The Spurs COULD beat any of the teams out there, if things go right. Getting Memphis in the first round means that things would have to go right four series in a row.

The whole series with the Grizzlies comes down to the zebras, IMO. They play very physical, but they also do a LOT of grabbing and pushing that could (and should) draw whistles. It disrupts the shit out of the Spurs offense - especially the guards. Guys cut across the paint, and get held, and don't come out on the other side like they are supposed to. And our guards really struggle to create something on their own.

If the refs are calling some of those things, the Grizz will have to back off a little, and it will leave the Spurs some room to operate. If the refs are "letting them play", there's a real chance the Spurs go fishing early. The problem - and I've been saying it since the pre-season - is that the playoffs are played under a different set of rules, and the refs are much more likely to swallow their whistles than blow them.

:lol

spurs won't lose to them. but if they did... i have to imagine the silver lining would be that the parker situation would finally be addressed.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

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The main problem. Kills energy and the team.

I think Leonard is playing at a level to will the Spurs to victory. Of course they need to make some shots, and Gasol will have to play well.

Spurs problem is consistency. They will have games will ball moves great, energy is high and team is playing very well. But other times it's like we forgot how to even play simple basketball. Will go 10 straight possession with terrible shots and will have dry spells where it allows other teams to either get back in the game or create a big lead.

but we've been inconsistent and gotten far in the playoffs before. Just gotta play well for 4 games each series. We'll see what happens.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

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1. Good thing LMA plays PF. Plus his shot has been much much better since the heart issue. Then of course there is his defense where he has really stepped it up on the perimeter and as a rim protector.

2. Parker has taken a back seat for three years now. C'mon, man. Even for a troll thread this is weak shit.

3. Ginobili is a bench player whereas Allen starts. If Tisdale wants to play him 45 mpg so he can cover Kawhi and Manu then yes please. Gino has shown the ability to take over quarters and that is all we need from him at this point.

4. People have been trying to push Gasol around and then he alternates between finishing in the post in their face and dropping threes. His rebounding has been outstanding that last few games as well. He looks like he has really settled in.

5. The only serious post player is ZBo and he is not what he once was. You can still collapse on him on the double and deny him the ball quite easily. Spurs have been owning him for years. Their offense is mostly through Conley whose penetration game they sure as hell can cover and Gasol who is more perimeter oriented. That plays into our hands. :lol Jamychal Green.

6. ::lol Jamychal Green and the near corpse of Vince Carter. Dedmon is inconsequential on offense but on defense he can cover all of their frontline players. Anthony is just plain inconsequential as the 15th man. LMA and Gasol's ability to play both inside and out is going to cause all kinds of issues with the Grizzlies lack of mobility. And Brendan Wright vs Gasol? Yes please.

7. Patty is fine. His shot is streaky but overall is a 41% from 3. His Assist:To is at 3. Meanwhile the Grizzlies backup PG is hitting under a third of his shots playing 20 mpg.

8. Simmons and SloMO will be dealing with James Ennis and Troy Daniels. The Grizzlies bench is shit outside of ZBo since Parsons shit the bed.

9. The Spurs have the best defensive rating in the league and the beautiful game disappeared two years ago with the exodus of shitter and the elevation of LMA and Kawhi. We actually saw the closest approximation if it we have seen in a long time when we eviscerated Cleveland. Meanwhile the Grizz are pretty mediocre offensively with :lol Jamychal Green pusing 30 mpg in that lineup.

10. So we should ignore that the Spurs have been dominating the elite teams. As attempts to poison the well that is a pretty shitty one.

This is actually not the worst take on why the Grizzlies might win I have seen. DPG's "grit and grind" marketing regurgitation takes from past years are by far the shittiest so at least you have that.

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Originally Posted by Ron Swanson

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/...rollThread.jpg

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one of my favorite meme's ever

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Originally Posted by Seventyniner

:lol

Forgot to replace Heat with Cavs tbh

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He also put "LMA" when he should have replaced Splitter's name with "Gasol" in paragraph #6, and paragraph #10 doesn't really mesh well this time because we're not going to have another playoff opponent before the Grizzlies this year like the 6th seeded Warriors in 2013.

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Originally Posted by UNT Eagles 2016

He also put "LMA" when he should have replaced Splitter's name with "Gasol" in paragraph #6, and paragraph #10 doesn't really mesh well this time because we're not going to have another playoff opponent before the Grizzlies this year like the 6th seeded Warriors in 2013.

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:lol I tried to do TD = LMA, and Tiago = Gasol, but the latter makes no sense, tbh... they're opposite players. Tiago was stronger but limited offensively, Pau has length but is more of a finesse player, with bigger offense.

I thought some things did stood with time, like the Grizz are going to try to make this a physical dogfight, and I don't know we're well equipped for that. I suppose if we're knocking down shots, it won't matter...

:cry its gonna hurt :cry

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Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol I tried to do TD = LMA, and Tiago = Gasol, but the latter makes no sense, tbh... they're opposite players. Tiago was stronger but limited offensively, Pau has length but is more of a finesse player, with bigger offense.

I thought some things did stood with time, like the Grizz are going to try to make this a physical dogfight, and I don't know we're well equipped for that. I suppose if we're knocking down shots, it won't matter...

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Tiago wasn't strong, I don't know who you were watching. He was very soft on defense even though his length did force some errant shots at the rim. Splitter was definitely a finesse player at the rim, maybe even more so than Pau -- his ratio of reverse layups to dunks was like 20 : 1 or something like that.

Splitter = Gasol is an easy comparison, but TD = LMA is significantly worse even though it's obviously the best we can do, LMA spends too much time in the high post compared to TD down low and is a far inferior shot blocker/alterer.

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Originally Posted by Uriel

:lmao OMG some of the posters in this thread :lmao

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:lmao

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Originally Posted by UNT Eagles 2016

Tiago wasn't strong, I don't know who you were watching. He was very soft on defense even though his length did force some errant shots at the rim. Splitter was definitely a finesse player at the rim, maybe even more so than Pau -- his ratio of reverse layups to dunks was like 20 : 1 or something like that.

Splitter = Gasol is an easy comparison, but TD = LMA is significantly worse even though it's obviously the best we can do, LMA spends too much time in the high post compared to TD down low and is a far inferior shot blocker/alterer.

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Tiago was a banger on defense. I don't know who you were watching.

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Originally Posted by Brazil

:cry its gonna hurt :cry

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:cry and it will still hurt four years later :cry

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Originally Posted by 313

:cry and it will still hurt four years later :cry

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:lol

Conley will put the Grizz on his back and show everyone why he is paid them big bucks. And...and Marc Gasol...

What a(nother) dumb fucking thread.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Tiago was a banger on defense. I don't know who you were watching.

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Dude was great in that Memphis series especially. I'd give the Spurs a much better chance if they had prime Tiago over Lee and Dedmon.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Tiago was a banger on defense. I don't know who you were watching.

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How about this. He was "inconsistent". Deal?

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Dude was great in that Memphis series especially. I'd give the Spurs a much better chance if they had prime Tiago over Lee and Dedmon.

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Tiago hasn't been healthy in what, 3 years?

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Originally Posted by UNT Eagles 2016

Tiago hasn't been healthy in what, 3 years?

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Yep, but who cares?

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Dude was great in that Memphis series especially. I'd give the Spurs a much better chance if they had prime Tiago over Lee and Dedmon.

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That hell? Better chance? Over Memphis? SA will beat MEM no matter what.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

That hell? Better chance? Over Memphis? SA will beat MEM no matter what.

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I don't care about them against Memphis. I mean in general.

This team reminds me a lot of the one that list to the grizzlies in the first round a few years ago. I'm not feeling good about this team at all. A waste of a superstar season by Kawhi.

Spurs gonna take a 3 game losing streak into the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by itzsoweezee

This team reminds me a lot of the one that list to the grizzlies in the first round a few years ago. I'm not feeling good about this team at all. A waste of a superstar season by Kawhi.

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First of all it wasn't a few years ago it was 6 years ago the Spurs lost to the Grizzlies. Second of all I see zero similarities between those two teams. The best player on 2011 team was a 34 year old Manu. The best player on the current team is a young 25 year old Kawhi. Secondly Manu broke his arm before that series started which tilted that series heavily in the Grizzlies favor. Tim also suffered a major ankle injury during game 1 of that series which limited his effectiveness. 2 out of the spurs top 3 players were banged up in that series. Thirdly the Spurs bigs were complete crap in that series it was a combination of Bonner,Blair,Dice, hobbling Duncan vs prime Zbo and Marc. Also RJ another key contributor choked like he always did in that series. That Spurs team roster wise was very flawed. I don't see that being the case with the current Spurs team.

The Grizzlies are not athletic enough, or have enough shooters to bother the Spurs. We should be fine if Kawhi is healthy.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

That hell? Better chance? Over Memphis? SA will beat MEM no matter what.

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Yeah... I'd step lightly with the "no matter what". Memphis is going to pound the shit out of the middle. If the Spurs don't/can't step up and play physical, it's not a guaranteed win by any stretch.

One thing is for sure. Forbes can't get any minutes, even to give the other two a few minutes extra rest. He's worse than a deer in the headlights. I watched him damn near pick up a backcourt violation tonight - he got one foot across the line, and a defender made a move toward him, and he froze. Almost picked up his back foot. He was lucky to find someone to make a desperation pass to.

Simmons loves to drive, but he also loves to run into the trees and cough it up. Manu is likely to have a couple of good games, and a couple of absolute shit games. And Danny couldn't hit water if he fell out of a fucking boat.

David Lee has been a badass this year - but not against those monster bigs on Memphis. Kyle Anderson? I'm not even touching that. That puts the rest of the guys in must-step-up mode.

And that brings us to Tony and Patty. They're your "no matter what".

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Originally Posted by Ditty

The Grizzlies are not athletic enough, or have enough shooters to bother the Spurs. We should be fine if Kawhi is healthy.

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This tbh
:toast
Nothing else need to be said.
:claw

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Originally Posted by GSH

Yeah... I'd step lightly with the "no matter what". Memphis is going to pound the shit out of the middle. If the Spurs don't/can't step up and play physical, it's not a guaranteed win by any stretch.

One thing is for sure. Forbes can't get any minutes, even to give the other two a few minutes extra rest. He's worse than a deer in the headlights. I watched him damn near pick up a backcourt violation tonight - he got one foot across the line, and a defender made a move toward him, and he froze. Almost picked up his back foot. He was lucky to find someone to make a desperation pass to.

Simmons loves to drive, but he also loves to run into the trees and cough it up. Manu is likely to have a couple of good games, and a couple of absolute shit games. And Danny couldn't hit water if he fell out of a fucking boat.

David Lee has been a badass this year - but not against those monster bigs on Memphis. Kyle Anderson? I'm not even touching that. That puts the rest of the guys in must-step-up mode.

And that brings us to Tony and Patty. They're your "no matter what".

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I don't need to step lightly at all with MEM. SA will beat them.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

I don't need to step lightly at all with MEM. SA will beat them.

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agreed

Spurs win, 4-0

I think Im the only one who predicts a 4-0 win for us.......!

If Kawhi is as good as we think he is and as good as he thinks he is this will be a sweep. They simply have no answer for the Kawhi we have seen for most of the season. If Kawhi continues his post season shrinkage as he has in recent years then this will be a dogfight that could go either way.

Spurs in 4, you guys are bitches.

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Originally Posted by daslicer

First of all it wasn't a few years ago it was 6 years ago the Spurs lost to the Grizzlies. Second of all I see zero similarities between those two teams. The best player on 2011 team was a 34 year old Manu. The best player on the current team is a young 25 year old Kawhi. Secondly Manu broke his arm before that series started which tilted that series heavily in the Grizzlies favor. Tim also suffered a major ankle injury during game 1 of that series which limited his effectiveness. 2 out of the spurs top 3 players were banged up in that series. Thirdly the Spurs bigs were complete crap in that series it was a combination of Bonner,Blair,Dice, hobbling Duncan vs prime Zbo and Marc. Also RJ another key contributor choked like he always did in that series. That Spurs team roster wise was very flawed. I don't see that being the case with the current Spurs team.

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I fully expect the current Spurs bigs to be complete crap this year. Hopefully, I'm wrong.

They will be fine. But I could see them squeaking by game 1 then losing game 2 before they wakeup and pound the grizz.

Park and GNob will average 20 per and Spurs will sweep. I'm sure you know this.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

I don't need to step lightly at all with MEM. SA will beat them.

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Well, I like your confidence. You haven't wavered since pre-season. :toast

I'm betting my 401K now. If they lose, I'm coming to live at your place. :lol

If we fail to win both home games we will lose to Memphis.

It all depends if they will be able to lock us up bigtime.

IMO they will eventually get the formula to lock us up but hopefully it will be late in
The series when its too late

If they get the formula in game 1 or 2 we are toast

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Originally Posted by GSH

Well, I like your confidence. You haven't wavered since pre-season. :toast

I'm betting my 401K now. If they lose, I'm coming to live at your place. :lol

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:lol I always have a room open. You can just PM me your favorite snacks/drinks as well and I will be sure to have them fully stocked in your room :tu

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Originally Posted by GSH

Memphis is going to pound the shit out of the middle.

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With what? 25 mpg of Zbo? Conley drives sure but his game is based on quickness not power. Gasol is a jump shooter on offense operating out of the high post mostly. He get a few postups but it is not his mainstay.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Dude was great in that Memphis series especially. I'd give the Spurs a much better chance if they had prime Tiago over Lee and Dedmon.

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you're gay

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Originally Posted by FuzzyLumpkins

With what? 25 mpg of Zbo? Conley drives sure but his game is based on quickness not power. Gasol is a jump shooter on offense operating out of the high post mostly. He get a few postups but it is not his mainstay.

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You know... that was a bad choice of words. I was really thinking and talking about the defensive end. That really was just a shit choice of words.

I've learned to be cautious of trusting memory over stats and video. But the way I remember it, Marc Gasol was pretty damned effective posting up against the Spurs. More to the point, I remember thinking about how the Grizz were scoring lots of easy buckets, while the Spurs were making (and missing) too many difficult mid-range and long-range shots. When one team is getting lots of easy buckets, and the other is struggling on most possessions? It's a recipe for a loss.

It's Memphis' physical, grabbing, defense that worries me about this series. I could write a long story about it, but you've either seen it the way I have, or you haven't. Pau has been freaking deadly since he started coming off the bench, and that's a big plus. I'm still worried about the Spurs' guard play - especially the PG's. They are going to HAVE to take a step up. I think they are capable. But I also think that if they don't, the Spurs could lose this series. Maybe there really is a CIA Pop. All I know is what I've seen during the regular season.

Did I mention that I made a really bad choice of words?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

:lol I always have a room open. You can just PM me your favorite snacks/drinks as well and I will be sure to have them fully stocked in your room :tu

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Rudy T said, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion". I have a lot of respect/belief in Tony and Manu, and what they have done in basketball. And I still believe that they CAN come up big one more time. But I still can't help thinking that Memphis is going to keep them out of the paint, and force the Spurs to take harder, longer-range shots. It's hard to win a 7-game series, when you're taking harder shots than the other team. Not impossible, but hard.

I've got a lot of respect for your perspective. But if I like Crown Royal and good beef, and I'm not getting any younger. If I lose my 401K, you're gonna have to quit posting so much and take a second job.

I'll bet your 401k for my 401k that the grizzlies will take at least 1 game

Grizzlies are arguably the worst team in the playoffs, that includes both conferences. :lol

This team has an eerily similar feel to it.

See: 2010-2011 61 win Spur team.

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Originally Posted by ViceCity86

Grizzlies are arguably the worst team in the playoffs, that includes both conferences. :lol

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:lmao
What a massive fail of a post

Memphis posseses a top 5 best defense in the league and a legit superstar

No other team can say that besides golden state and san antonio

:lol

This is another one of those Nono 50/50 threads.

Spurs win = I was trolling.
Spurs lose = I told you.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by UZER

:lol

This is another one of those Nono 50/50 threads.

Spurs win = I was trolling.
Spurs lose = I told you.

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http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=214458

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

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Only issue will be the grizzebras and even they can't make the Spurs lose to Memphis.

A small part of me worries we'll see 2011 Part II. But 2016 Part II is more likely, tbh.

grizz have been absolute trash in the past 2 months, even more than the spurs.

El Nono with the throwback troll post.

We miss you Timvp.

Wow Nono you outdid yourself
:bobo

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I apologize in advance but my first reaction when thinking about the Spurs vs. Grizzlies is Memphis should be considered a heavy favorite. Right now, I'm thinking the Grizzlies in 5 or 6 is a pretty damn safe bet. I hate to be this pessimistic but I just don't see how the Spurs are going to win this series. Maybe someone can convince me otherwise but ...

1. LaMarcus isn't playing that well. He had trouble with DeAndre and Marc Gasol is just a better version than DeAndre. LMA has had a great season but it's asking a ton for him to shine against the former DPOY.

2. Parker is hurting. He had trouble scoring with iffy defensive guards and limited bigs. What's going to happen against Conley -- arguably the best Parker defender in the league -- and a team with legit bigmen and other players with agile length? On paper, this looks like it'll be a disastrous series for TP unless he miraculously returns to health.

3. Ginobili is no longer in the stage of his career where he can carry a team. And besides, going up against Tony Allen would be a tall task no matter his age.

4. Gasol played a bit better today but he's still playing without physicality. He has trouble grabbing contested boards. He still has issues finishing in crowds. Those three faults play perfectly into the Grizzlies hands.

5. Leonard and Green just came off of a GREAT defensive season -- but Memphis does their damage on the inside. There really won't be anyone for those two to shut down. Thus, it'll be much more difficult to impact the series.

6. LMA, Dedmon, and Joel Anthony are all poor matchups against a physical frontline.

7. Patty ballhandling and decision-making against that pressure defense? Yikes.

8. Does Simmons or Kyle have the experience to play in what is going to be a glorified back alley dogfight?

9. The Grizzlies are at the very least as good defensively as the Spurs. Most likely, they're better. San Antonio was superior offensively for the majority of this season -- but they've fallen off a cliff in the last couple months. That ball-movement that made this team special is mostly gone. They don't have much in terms of individual creators. The Grizzlies offense isn't awesome but their scoring, on paper at least, will be more reliable since it'll come on the inside. Add in the points they'll create by forcing turnovers and hitting the offensive glass -- and I can't make a strong case for the Spurs having a better offense or defense right now.

10. We still really don't know how good the Spurs are at the moment. Should we take anything from beating most of the good teams? Probably not. Is struggling with a Thunder team that was mediocre in the regular season a bad sign? Yeah, probably. Add in the poor way the Spurs ended the regular season -- and this team is still riddled with question marks. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, know exactly what they are and what they aren't.


I hope beyond hope that I'm dead wrong. I really, really, really want the Spurs to win this series. (In fact, just making it to the Finals would make my year; I wouldn't even care if the Spurs lost to the Heat -- I just want this team to make the Finals one last time.)

Hopefully there are a few pieces to the puzzle that I'm missing. Maybe one of you can give me some hope. Maybe when I crunch the numbers, I'll see it differently.

I want to believe -- but as I'm sitting here right now, I just can't do it by any logical means. I'm sorry.

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Hahahahaha Conley is the best Parker-defender in the league?

Parker averaged 25/10 on 52% on him in a 4 game sweep last time they met in the playoffs. If that's the best Parker-defender, that speaks to how dominant a player he really is.

Grizz in 7

I think the Spurs should be a slight favorite based upon HCA and experience.

But if you want evidence that the Grizzlies should not be a favorite, check out this ESPN predictor model. I think they are way too optimistic about the Spurs chances of winning the series -- 90%.

In fact, the Spurs are favored more than any Eastern Conference team and, of the other eight favorite teams in their series, only GSW is favored by more over Portland.

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/page...inals-coverage

The Grizz should be the overwhelming favorites tbh.

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Originally Posted by GSH

The whole series with the Grizzlies comes down to the zebras, IMO. They play very physical, but they also do a LOT of grabbing and pushing that could (and should) draw whistles. It disrupts the shit out of the Spurs offense - especially the guards. Guys cut across the paint, and get held, and don't come out on the other side like they are supposed to. And our guards really struggle to create something on their own.

If the refs are calling some of those things, the Grizz will have to back off a little, and it will leave the Spurs some room to operate. If the refs are "letting them play", there's a real chance the Spurs go fishing early. The problem - and I've been saying it since the pre-season - is that the playoffs are played under a different set of rules, and the refs are much more likely to swallow their whistles than blow them.

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The Grizz played physical as hell. When the refs blew whistles, the Spurs were obviously better. When they didn't, Memphis was able to ugly up the games and make it close.

Houston is going to be a challenge. But nobody benefits as much from the different calls in the playoffs as Memphis.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GSH

The Grizz played physical as hell. When the refs blew whistles, the Spurs were obviously better. When they didn't, Memphis was able to ugly up the games and make it close.

Houston is going to be a challenge. But nobody benefits as much from the different calls in the playoffs as Memphis.

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This.

Not saying there was bias toward either team but the refs swallowed their whistles for blatant pushing, holding and shoving at the rim, yet called the most minimal contact on the perimeter, which is horrible. Either let them play hard and not gift 3FTs for breathing on a perimeter player or call the pushing in the low block too ( in which case Gasol and Randolph would have fouled out by the 2nd quarter of each game tbh).