good post here
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this is who i thought would be the greatest threat to signing Simmons.
Zaza fucked us pretty good. Robs us of a ring and makes us overpay for Simmons.
Simmons lacks a consistent 3 point shot. And even his midrange looks rather ugly at times. I wouldn't mind keeping him; but I feel like the hype machine is in full swing. Disney Network needs to sell something with no Kawhi.
We know Danny's a streaky shooter and a great defender. Have to take the good with the bad. If Simmons were as good a defender, that would be one thing. Maybe he has the potential to be. He and Bertans often look lost on rotations. That should come with experience, one would hope.
If i'm the Spurs I'd give him the first two years 5-8 mill then raise it to like 10 mil for one or two years.
I know Marks' primary concern should be the Nets obviously, but let's be real: he wouldn't have that job if not for his Spurs affiliation. Even though Simmons and possibly Dedmon are the types of players I could see them targeting, if it doesn't move the needle and hurts the Spurs, then it shouldn't be worth it to him.
Simmons isn't even a small forward. Sure, he can play some, but not full time. I know they moved Hollis-Jefferson to power forward, but they should move him back to his natural small forward and target a stretch four instead.
Right, but team offering him a contract needs to have cap space equal to the average annual value. I need to go team by team to figure out where the risks are / add in rookie holds which can be quite large. And wouldn't take into account any maneuvering to get further under the cap. But:
- Midlevel will be about $8mm. Assume cap around $101mm
- Teams with max cap space (not saying he'd get max, but remember there are max FAs out there that could take up space instead of Simmons) in order of risk:
- Philly is biggest risk. Henderson's deal is non-guaranteed and they could have $55mm of cap space even taking into account the third pick
- Brooklyn will have $30-$35mm or so and is a risk to sign Simmons. I'd look for them, though, to possibly try to pick up assets in the draft by taking on bad contracts. The Lakers should bang on their door and offer the HOU pick to dump Mozgov or Deng. Still, he'd be a nice player for them and a risk.
- Sacramento has just under $30mm of space but could have $45mm as Afflalo and Toliver aren't guaranteed. Possibly even more if Gay opts out. If they think he can play next to Hield, they could go hard after him.
- Phoenix will have around max space assuming they give a qualifying offer to Len and could let go of Barbosa. No way in hell would they add Simmons to Bledsoe/Knight
- Minnesota could add to cap space if able to get Pekovic's contract off books as he remains injured. With LaVine out most of next year, Simmons could be an interesting fit. Like a lot of these other teams, they need shooting badly though.
- Boston (assuming guys are renounced and Zeller non-guaranteed) could have $35mm but has a packed roster so will be looking to add max guys or bust. Doubt they look at Simmons.
- GS technically has the second lowest active salaries for next year but obviously will be maneuvering around Durant/Curry extensions. Will need every penny and probably only have room exception.
- Close to max cap space:
- NY will have about $20mm but potentially a ton more if Melo is moved. Could offer Simmons a massive deal but can he run the triangle?
- Denver likely gets rid of Mike Miller's salary and will have over $20mm of cap room. Another team with too many middling players without any standouts other than Jokic. One of most intriguing teams to see what they do with their cap space. Gallo is opting out for a longer term deal most likely.
- Orlando could push $20mm of cap room by renouncing Meeks/Jeff Green and taking a $1mm buyout of CJ Watson. Going after Simmons would totally depend on if they see Hezonja and Ross in future plans. Don't remember Simmons name on their whiteboard though.
- LAL will have $15mm or so but could add to that by dumping Tarik Black. Crowded backcourt with Russell, Clarkson and 2nd pick. Probably will try to add shooting (a Redick type)
- Chicago probably keeps Rondo instead of a $3mm buyout so will be in the sub-$20mm range. Not sure Simmons fits here. What a weird roster. They need a PG badly.
Barely above MLE:
- Houston can play just above the MLE but not sure Simmons fits Moreyball. Pretty sure Spurs match whatever they'd offer him as it won't be through the roof.
Depends on free agents:
- Atlanta - Millsap probably opts out so they'll have plenty of cap room if he signs elsewhere and others are renounced. If he resigns, then they won't have any. He'd be a solid fit on a team lacking much in the way of wings/guards beyond Bazemore and Schroeder.
- Utah - Hayward will opt out. Similar situation to Atlanta.
- Toronto could have $20mm of cap space if Lowry, Ibaka and Tucker all walk. Doubt they all walk though and probably pushes them closer to the cap - not likely to pursue Simmons at all
- New Orleans will have about $10mm if Jrue signs elsewhere
Others:
- Indiana will give qualifying offer to Teague so won't have much cap room. Stranger things have happened though and they could let him walk if someone offers an insane deal.
- Everyone else has no cap space or below the MLE.
So what kind of player is he? I've heard nothing about him. Basically, my expectations of him are at LJC levels.
It was mostly fouling too much early on and not getting around screens. He showed flashes on defense early in the year but got better and better as the season has gone on.
As for his offense, the major problem I had with him was him passing up wide open shots. I can't believe he's now taking those shots towards the end of the season and the playoffs. He's showing real mental toughness. Instead of driving into the defense trying to force it, he's now taking the open shots, or driving in a little bit and taking a midrange jumpshot.
It seems he's constantly worked on his game. Maybe when he fell out of the rotation towards the end of the season he worked on these things. I think he spent time working on his shot and also incorporating a midrange jumpshot. I'm now OK with him on offense, still got improvements he can make, but he's getting there. He's taking the shots that are there and shooting with confidence. If he makes or misses, I'm OK with that as long as he's not breaking the offense and shooting the ball with confidence when he does take a shot. That's what I look for in a shooter.
Basically he's a good athlete and an elite defender in Europe. He had already had a good season last year too. Was 3rd for defensive player and won it this season. He's a 30% 3 pt shooter in Europe though and this team already lacks in shooting. I actually thought he was a good candidate to just substitute the minutes from regular season Simmons whose impact was mostly defensive bc he also shot just below 30% from 3 and passes up shots as we all know. Offensively he's not like this Simmons from the playoffs if he can sustain that and they are the same age.
just time to see how mature the league really is. He has no business getting maxed. A value get for him would be the about 6 mill the first two years,(most he can get) and then like 8 mill partially guaranteed and then like a raise for a team option that's non guaranteed.
Year 1 : up to MLE
Year 2 : MLE +/- 4.5%
Year 3 : 3rd year $ up to the max
Year 4 : Year 3 +/- 4.1%
Edit : This is the structure only if he signs an offer sheet and the Spurs match it. Not sure but the new CBA might have included the option for the matching team to make the cap hit flat throughout the contract.
I wouldn't give Simmons 4m a year. Those guys are a dime a dozen in the D-league. He looked good against Houston, a run a shoot team. He's not bad, but he's not worth holding on to. I hope he gets paid though, just not here. I remember all the James Anderson love as well. You guys need to recognize a scrub when you see one.
In his current form he's not a scrub... the question is whether he can maintain that or this is a one hit wonder. Plenty of guys get hot in the playoffs but can't maintain that through the season. He's very streaky. Anyways due to that he shouldn't get overpriced. There's risk. But as a roleplayer in a moderate contract he would be fine.