Back on July 1, I posted this:
So 10% into the season, what has happened so far in this small but disturbing sample size?
Well, statistically, this is by far the worst season of his career (qualifying minimum of 40 minutes total in a season, cutting out his briefly played rookie year).
career low fg% of 31%
career low 3pt % of 26.7%
career low 2pt % of 35.5%
career low rebounds per 36 of 1.8, same per 100 possessions at 2.4. I would argue this reflects his fatness and loss of speed hurting his hustle to grab and go. His career high unsurprisingly was 13-14.
tied for career low in steals per 36 in 1.2, and per 100 possessions career low by itself at 1.6 Same with the rebounds I suspect, and again his career high was in 13-14.
career low in points per 36, BY FAR, with 9.5.. Next lowest was 14.9 in 15-16. Also lowest by far by 100 possessions
career lows in
PER (4.4),
true shooting (39.3%),
win shares (-0.2), and
BPM box plus minus (-6.4)
But don't worry, he says
"There’s no pressure to perform".
League wide he's doing awful things. Going by
ESPN's Hollinger advanced stats:
12th worst of 315 qualified players in PER
3rd worst of 315 qualified players in VALUE ADDED
Tied for 3rd worst of 315 qualified players in ESTIMATED WINS ADDED
Does that sound like a player who should be made what might be the highest paid back-up point guard in the league for 4 years?
And I don't have much hope that he'll get much better. Sure, he might raise his shooting percentages. Hell, against the Warriors he shot 2-6 from 3 and raised his yearly average.
But the reason I fear he won't improve in a meaningful way, besides his weight, attitude, bad defensive tools and age, is the reason I outlined in my post from July.
And that is Manu Ginobili.
Manu is also having the worst year of his career, and in some categories only worse in his rookie year.
Worst PER, Worst True Shooting, Worst win share, Worst BPM, Worst VORP.
Worst 3pt %, Worst 2pt %, Worst rebounds/36, 2nd Worst after rookie in Assists per 36, 2nd Worst after rookie points per 36, 2nd Worst steals per 36
Manu, understandably, is just about done. He'll have some ups, lots of downs, but he's not really a good impact player anymore, not like he was even 3 years ago. He's not a 6th man candidate. He can't do Patty's job anymore, not well enough to help anyway. He's coming off a playoff run that he began with four straight scoreless games and shot a Mills-esque 22% from 3 for the postseason.
Manu won't be doing much better the rest of the way, he's on his way out. And Simmons could have been that guy. He's been that guy for Orlando, they run through him on second units. He showed with the Spurs that he could beat his own man off the dribble, get to the rim, finish, pass, use a pick, pass, penetrate, pull up, shoot ... Not as well as 6th man Manu, but better than any other Spur currently playing.
Without that player next to him, Mills is ... well ... a highly paid 6 foot fat aging shooting guard who can't run an offense, can't penetrate, can't defend, can't make plays, and now can't shoot.
Good news though. His contract reportedly had 2 million in unlikely incentives. So his 4/50 deal is probably only 4/48.
