Kerr: Southwest Division Preview

Kerr: Only the Spurs' egos can prevent them from winning a second straight division title

Kerr - Yahoo Sports - SW Division Preview

NBA preview: Southwest
October 18, 2005

By Steve Kerr, Yahoo! Sports

The Spurs appear on the verge of a dynasty, having already won three titles in seven years and showing no signs of weakening. But if things go south for Gregg Popovich's team, he may find that his team isn't even the best in the state, never mind the NBA. The Rockets appear close to emerging as a real force now that Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady have played a season together, and Dallas is loaded as usual. Even the Grizzlies figure to be tough to beat in the Western Conference's toughest division. All four clubs will take turns beating up on the lowly Hornets, for whom it looks like another long season. Here's a look at the Southwest Division.

1. San Antonio Spurs
Best-case scenario: The Spurs pick up where they left off in June. Tim Duncan dominates the lane, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili slice up opponents with their penetration and Bruce Bowen shuts down the best perimeter players in the game. Nick Van Exel and Michael Finley add scoring off the bench, and San Antonio waltzes to the division title.

Worst-case scenario: The Spurs suddenly have too much talent, if that's possible, and the chemistry suffers. A crowded bench leads to unhappiness, and Van Exel and Finley don't fit in. The Spurs still win a lot of games, but they allow Houston to pass them for the Southwest crown.

Outlook: Popovich is a master at handling egos, and the winning culture is already in place in the Alamo City. If chemistry is an issue, Pop will fix it one way or another. The Spurs will win the division and be the favorites to win the NBA title.

2. Houston Rockets
Best-case scenario: Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady form the league's best inside-out combination, Stromile Swift gives the Rockets consistent defense and rebounding at power forward and the Houston backcourt complements the frontline with solid shooting and strong defense. The Rockets break through and win the division.

Worst-case scenario: Yao and T-Mac don't quite click and Swift displays the mercurial nature that made him expendable in Memphis. The backcourt defends poorly and Houston's defense slips. The Rockets fade toward the .500 mark.

Outlook: This is an emerging, well-coached team. The Big Two will be great, and Swift is the kind of athletic "four man" the Rockets desperately needed last season. If Houston gets solid play from newcomers Derek Anderson, Rafer Alston and Luther Head in the backcourt, watch out.

3. Dallas Mavericks
Best-case scenario: Dirk Nowitzki has an MVP-type season, and he is perfectly complemented by the wing corps of Josh Howard, Jerry Stackhouse and Marquis Daniels. Erick Dampier emerges as a defensive force and the Mavs shrug off the loss of Michael Finley to remain one of the West's best teams.

Worst-case scenario: Nowitzki's production suffers now that both Steve Nash and Finley are gone, and the team becomes too one-dimensional. Avery Johnson's efforts to make the club more defensive-minded don't pan out, as Dampier can't fit in with the up-tempo pace his teammates prefer. Dallas falls out of the playoffs for the first time in six years.

Outlook: The Mavericks have the potential to be very good – they just have to put the pieces together. Johnson's defensive approach will be helped by the arrival of Doug Christie, but Dampier is the key. He must fit in and be a force. Dallas will enjoy another 50-plus win season, which is no small feat in this division.

4. Memphis Grizzlies
Best-case scenario: The addition by subtraction theory works. Without Bonzi Wells and Jason Williams, the Grizzlies have great chemistry and defend the way Mike Fratello likes. Also, Pau Gasol emerges as a star working the low post. Memphis finds a way back to the playoffs for the third straight season.

Worst-case scenario: Gasol still displays inconsistency, rookie Hakim Warrick isn't ready to produce, and the new acquisitions – Eddie Jones, Damon Stoudamire and Bobby Jackson – begin to show signs of age. Memphis fades quickly and misses the postseason.

Outlook: Rumor has it that Jerry West really likes this club. The Grizzlies will be very competitive under Fratello, and if Warrick is ready to play they could surprise some people. Still, it's tough to see Memphis making the playoffs in a ridiculously deep Western Conference.

5. New Orleans Hornets
Best-case scenario: Chris Paul is the second coming of Isiah Thomas, J.R. Smith is the next Joe Dumars, and the Hornets become the Bad Boys of the new millennium and storm to the division title. (Just checking to see if you were paying attention). Actually, if all goes perfectly, they might win 22 games. Anything more than that would be a miracle.

Worst-case scenario: The front line breaks down and P.J. Brown and Jamaal Magloire get hurt, leaving the Hornets defenseless. Paul isn't ready to start, and the lack of talent on the roster is exposed. The Hornets barely avoid the all-time NBA record for losses – 73 – while playing their home games in Oklahoma City and Baton Rouge.

Outlook: Paul will help, as will Lithuanian rookie Arvydas Macjiauskas. But without a true scorer, the Hornets will have a difficult time putting points on the board. And in the toughest division in the West, that's a problem. Finishing anywhere but fifth is out of the question.

I still don't think Yao and Urkle form a good tandem.

Either they're giving it to Yao and doing a duncan-esque type offense, or they're letting mcgrady tear it up anywhere he wants.

I did not see any good yao-tmac plays in the postseason

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Originally Posted by Cant_Be_Faded

I still don't think Yao and Urkle form a good tandem.

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:lmao :lmao

There is just as much of a rumble in Houston as in Miami.

Houston just needs to find a click on offense, and play team defense better.

TMac needs to finally step up and physically show through his play this year that mentally he has matured into an experienced as well as respectful and dominant leader. He needs to take one step up like MJ and Magic did. Play some defense.

TMac and Leader is an equation that is inane.

It figures Kerr would put Dallas third. He doesn't give them any credit. Houston is unproven with Swift not being able to hit outside shots and Dallas is only getting more athletic because Finley was slowing down their fast pace game. Daniels and Christie definitely fit better for Dallas. I think Dallas will win 60 games this year. Howard and Terry continue to get better. Diop is an improvement over Bradley.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

It figures Kerr would put Dallas third. He doesn't give them any credit. Houston is unproven with Swift not being able to hit outside shots and Dallas is only getting more athletic because Finley was slowing down their fast pace game. Daniels and Christie definitely fit better for Dallas. I think Dallas will win 60 games this year. Howard and Terry continue to get better. Diop is an improvement over Bradley.

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No he put them there because that's where they deserve to be.


Do you ever STFU and wait to prove everyone wrong? As it is today we're right, why? Everyone with basketball credibility has been judged by you because they didn't pick Dallas to be second after San Antonio.... let them prove everyone wrong.

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Originally Posted by Cant_Be_Faded

I still don't think Yao and Urkle form a good tandem.

Either they're giving it to Yao and doing a duncan-esque type offense, or they're letting mcgrady tear it up anywhere he wants.

I did not see any good yao-tmac plays in the postseason

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You weren't watching them destroy Dallas with the pick and roll? Yao flashing to the front of the rim and catching that lob pass sure looked unstoppable. The only reason they stopped doing it is because Yao couldn't stay out of foul trouble.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

It figures Kerr would put Dallas third. He doesn't give them any credit. Houston is unproven with Swift not being able to hit outside shots and Dallas is only getting more athletic because Finley was slowing down their fast pace game. Daniels and Christie definitely fit better for Dallas. I think Dallas will win 60 games this year. Howard and Terry continue to get better. Diop is an improvement over Bradley.

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The Suns played incredibly well last year, started 31-4, won 62 games and you think the Mavs are suddenly going to win 60? In this division? In this conference? Seriously, dude, how do you expect anyone to take you seriously when you say things that are so silly? I think the Spurs are far and away the best team in the league, and I wouldn't just expect to see 60 wins given the incredible depth of the western conference. Picking the Mavs to come in third behind Houston and San Antonio isn't exactly a slap in the face.

It is Dallas's incredible deep bench that will get them the 60 wins. A bench with Devin Harris, Marquis Daniels, Jerry Stackhouse, Van Horn and Diop is as deep as you get. I don't see why they can't win 60 games because the starters should stay fresh unlike some teams that have to overplay their starters due to a lack of bench.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

It figures Kerr would put Dallas third. He doesn't give them any credit. Houston is unproven with Swift not being able to hit outside shots and Dallas is only getting more athletic because Finley was slowing down their fast pace game. Daniels and Christie definitely fit better for Dallas. I think Dallas will win 60 games this year. Howard and Terry continue to get better. Diop is an improvement over Bradley.

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60 games? Are you kidding me? The Spurs have only won 60 games or better twice in the entire history of the franchise (94-95, 02-03). The Mavs have only done it once (02-03). And that Mavs team was absolutely stacked. Nowitzki, Finley, and Nash averaged 25.1, 19.3, and 17.7 points per game respectively. I can see Nowitzki putting up comparable (or better) numbers, but who's going to score like Finley and Nash? Who's going to come in off the bench and hit big shots like Van Exel? Who's going to construct a high-powered offensive attack like Don Nelson?

Hey, I love the Mavs, but 60 wins is a pretty big milestone for a team, and it took the Mavs the best group it's ever had to achieve that. You can't make a compelling argument that this year's Mavs are better than 02-03 (or maybe you can...I'd like to hear it). Depth only takes you so far. Those JailBlazers teams of the early naughts were as deep as the Pacific and couldn't even approach 60 wins. And they actually had talent that had been tested and found to be good. Dallas has a lot of potentional, but they can't win 60. Not in the West. Not with only one star. No way.

The Suns won 62 games without a bench, and didn't seem to lose any steam. They weren't burdened by having to play defense, so maybe Dallas can win a few more by playing D.

I didn't know you had to have multiple stars to be effective. I guess Detroit has no chance since they don't have a star. If you look through Dallas's lineup 1-10 they don't have a weakness in any position. Dampier is not liked alot on this board but he is a serviceable center and Diop is a decent backup. Dallas has multiple players that are very efficient in shooting. They just don't score a ton.
They did this last year and won 58 games. They even had alot of injuries last year and still achieved that. I think the key to the mavs winning 60 games is Marquis Daniels. So far this preseason he is shooting 51% from the field and clearly is a better athlete than Finley. The mavs 0of 02-03 had very weak interior defense and don't have the athleticism of the mavs now.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

I didn't know you had to have multiple stars to be effective. I guess Detroit has no chance since they don't have a star. If you look through Dallas's lineup 1-10 they don't have a weakness in any position. Dampier is not liked alot on this board but he is a serviceable center and Diop is a decent backup. Dallas has multiple players that are very efficient in shooting. They just don't score a ton.
They did this last year and won 58 games. They even had alot of injuries last year and still achieved that. I think the key to the mavs winning 60 games is Marquis Daniels. So far this preseason he is shooting 51% from the field and clearly is a better athlete than Finley. The mavs 0of 02-03 had very weak interior defense and don't have the athleticism of the mavs now.

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It's not that the Pistons "don't have a chance." But look at their records over the last three years: 54-28, 54-28, and 50-32. Apparently, getting 60 wins is hard, even for an NBA Champion. But let's look through their roster.

Stackhouse: 30 years old, injury prone, damaged goods. Not one of those players that is "very efficient at shooting"

Howard: Improved a lot last year, but is it reasonable to think he'll improve as much this year? Galloway doesn't think so (but then again, Galloway is kind of an idiot)

Dirk: amazing...MVP candidate...will he be as good this year? Will he taper off a little like Duncan has? Who knows...

Dampier: doesn't rebound enough...foul prone...good defender. Hollinger's player profile says that the most similar player at his age was Will Perdue, so that should tell you something. Could have a good year, could have a shitty one.

Terry: not the best passer...doesn't turn the ball over...offensive threat

Does that really sound like the starting lineup for a team that wins 60 games? Let's go on to the reserves.

Diop: absolutely no offense...not a great rebounder. Even if he is better than Bradley, that's not saying much, because I'm better than Bradley. Thank God that guy retired.

Van Horn: overrated his entire career...severely injury prone...can't D up bigger, stronger PFs...probably overachieved last year, but even if he can keep up 12 points in 23 minutes per game, he's still sucks a defense. Can hit the three.

Daniels: solid backup, but can't rebound to save his life...good shooter though

Christie: used to be a great defender, but he's 35, and can't really provide much offense

Armstrong: slow fat and ugly...he's old too (37)

So that's the Mavs, 1-10. I'd say back up PG, backup and starting SG, and backup C are all weak positions. Defense is better now than it was the last time they won 60 games, but offense is MUCH worse. And even though I love the Little General, we still don't know if he's a good coach. Can he weather an entire season with these guys? Will they listen to him? His history as a player says yes, but what happens when the Mavs go on a 5 game losing streak in December as some of these bitches on the Maverick roster start complaining? We all know he can give a great motivational speech, but can he tweak the X's and O's and make the on-the-fly adjustments that a 60-win team NEEDS from their coach? I guess time will tell...

That is a very pessimistic view of the mavs. I will show you my top of the roster and what I think of them.
C Dampier. Clogs up the middle well. Stuggles with holding on to the ball but has lost a little weight this year and much more active
PF Nowitzki. Unbelievable. He should keep getting better with starting to develop his post game. He will continue to light up the scoring along with rebounding, steals, and blocks
SF Josh Howard. Very good inside game along with improved outside shooting.
Very athletic and gets to alot of loose balls. Could become a great defender and a perfect compliment to Dirk
SG Doug Christie (for now). Has lost some of his speed but not is expected to play alot of minutes anyway due to a deep bench. A good chemistry player to have. Can take the ball down the court which can use Terry as more of a scorer.
PG Jason Terry is one of the top 5 shooters in the league. He plays average defense and doesn't turn it over much. Shoots an unbelievable percentage as a guard and with Howard and Christie taking the ball up alot will help him.
backup Center. Diop. A great shotblocker but struggles with rebounding and positioning. Not an offensive player but with so many scorers wasn't brought here for that reason. Lost 35 lbs.
backup PF Van Horn Not much of a defender but under Avery has shown alot of effort. Van Horn at the pf seems to be a better defender than the SF. What Van Horn struggles with are players that can shoot outside well . Not a good passer but spreads out the floor well because he can shoot the 3 well. Can also slash a little.
Backup SF Stackhouse Not an efficient player but gets to the line alot. Not much of a defender either. Also turns it over alot.
Backup SG Marquis Daniels Great slasher and can rebound. He also is very good at getting steals. Very poor outside shooter but other than that a great all around player. He is very athletic like Howard and gets alot of loose balls.
Backup PG Devin Harris He is the real backup. DA is old. Harris is very streaky. Sometimes plays out of control but very fast. He also gets alot of steals but can get overpowered by strong guards.

Overall Dallas's talent is over the roof. The question is if they can maximize all this talent into success.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

SG Doug Christie (for now). A good chemistry player to have.
PG Jason Terry is one of the top 5 shooters in the league.

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Omg, I dont know about Christie's chemistry but last I heard his wife was a bitch. Pardon me.

As for Jason Terry, have I been missing something? Jason Terry one of the top 5 shooters in the league? omg u guys up in the big D are really big on D for Delusional that is. :spin :spin :spin

Dallas will win games if they stay healthy but I dont see them challenging for the title. And I dont know about their bench. Marquis Daniels may be starting and if he doesnt, is he going to be the energy guy off the bench? Whos going to give them consistent scoring off the bench besides Stackhouse assuming he doesnt tail off?

One word.

DELUSIONAL

Until Yao impresses me more..I'm not worried about Houston.

Yao is overrated.

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Originally Posted by Dalamar_the_Dark

Omg, I dont know about Christie's chemistry but last I heard his wife was a bitch. Pardon me.

As for Jason Terry, have I been missing something? Jason Terry one of the top 5 shooters in the league? omg u guys up in the big D are really big on D for Delusional that is. :spin :spin :spin

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Christie is a very unselfish player on the offense. He definitely sees the open guy and shoots ok. Terry shot last 50.1% FG, 42.1% 3PT, and 84.4% from free throws. That is as efficient as you can get.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Christie is a very unselfish player on the offense. He definitely sees the open guy and shoots ok. Terry shot last 50.1% FG, 42.1% 3PT, and 84.4% from free throws. That is as efficient as you can get.

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That 50.1% was almost 10%age points better than his career average up to that point. It's unlikely that he will be able to shoot that well for an entire season ever again. Even though he's getting more open looks in Dallas than he was in Atlanta, you can't see a spike like that an think anything other than "fluke." Similar point with the three-pointers. He had a lights-out year last season, but I don't think it's realistic to expect the same unconscious performance two years in a row. I still like Terry though, and it will be fun to watch him this year.

He actually shot better in the playoffs than the regular season and he is shooting 57% from 3's so far in the preseason. He is just an unbelievable shooter and I feel every time he shoots it is going in. Josh Howard will improve his outside shooting I feel. He can still get alot better and maybe become a Pippen to Dirk.

Apparently Kerr hasn’t seen the Spurs pre season record.... :smokin

Howard = Pippen so Dirk = Jordan?

Jason Terry = 100% FG so Mavericks = 82-0

Wow. I'm starting to see the logic.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

Howard = Pippen so Dirk = Jordan?

Jason Terry = 100% FG so Mavericks = 82-0

Wow. I'm starting to see the logic.

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I'm saying Terry's shot looks so smooth it is not surprising he shoots so well from the field. I thought you would come up with better ideas why Dallas can't win 60 but I guess you can't.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

I'm saying Terry's shot looks so smooth it is not surprising he shoots so well from the field. I thought you would come up with better ideas why Dallas can't win 60 but I guess you can't.

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So Terry's shot "looking" smooth coupled with my not providing yet more logic for you to ignore then that must mean that the Mavs are going to win 60. We can just put it in the bank right now.

See? I'm right with ya on the logic. No wonder people up here are so happy. I'm feeling the euphoria of denial sweep over me.

Everything has to go right for Dallas to win 60 but I feel it can be done. I feel if the spurs can talk about winning 70 than the mavs can talk about winning 60.

Look man, though I liked the Mavs more when Nash and Finley where around, (that was a hell of a team) I do like them still. That said, I am 100% positive they won't win 60+ games.
Let's do this: (Kori, maybe you can help out here)

I bet you $500 vbookies (that is all you have) that Dallas will not win 60+ games. Plain and simple. Put your vmoney where your vmouth is. :smokin

Ok. That is very optomistic that the mavs win 60 games. I can at least say they are better than Houston. Avery might be new to being a coach but he has alot of experience with good and great coaches. He learned alot from Popovich's great defense as a player and Don Nelson's offense. Combine that with his leadership of motivating players should prove to be a winning formula.
He also has the advantage of having a training camp this year to do what he wants done on the floor. I would say anywhere from 55-60 games is their range. Houston anywhere from 50-55 wins.

:smokin yeah, that's what I thought...

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Originally Posted by vanvannen

Look man, though I liked the Mavs more when Nash and Finley where around, (that was a hell of a team) I do like them still. That said, I am 100% positive they won't win 60+ games.
Let's do this: (Kori, maybe you can help out here)

I bet you $500 vbookies (that is all you have) that Dallas will not win 60+ games. Plain and simple. Put your vmoney where your vmouth is. :smokin

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I want some of that action. I'd bet my whole virtual pie that Dallas won't win 60.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

So Terry's shot "looking" smooth coupled with my not providing yet more logic for you to ignore then that must mean that the Mavs are going to win 60. We can just put it in the bank right now.

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Wow...harsh. But funny. I love Duncan's fro in your avatar.

Kerr also predicted a year ago that the mavs wouldn't even make the playoffs. He lost all credibility after saying that.

I believe Kerr said it right.

1. San Antonio
2. Houston
3. Dallas
4. Memphis
5. New Orleans/Oklahoma City

The key for the Spurs is staying healthy. If they can, they should easily win 60+ games this season. Houston should win between 55 and 59 games. Dallas should come in with 50-54. This should be an interesting season for all three Texas teams.

Dallas will win at least 55 games. What have they don't lose 5 games in the standings. Finley flat out sucked last year. His injury really limited him.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

I can at least say they are better than Houston.

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You can say it, but it won't make it so. :blah

You basically swapped Finley for Christie. That and "a whole year now under AJ's defensive emphasis" are your big offseason changes from last year. I'll go ahead and give you continued reasonable development of Howard, Daniels, and Harris.

You came back to beat the Rockets because you changed the gameplan and ran them into the ground, especially game seven. You exposed their severe lack of athleticism. But, even then, you never were able to stop TMac or Yao. You showed no power game and Yao owned Dampier while rail thin TMac's defense made Dirk look like a CBA'er. They had NO power forward during the whole series and Dirk still disappeared.

How did Houston improve and deal with their weaknesses that you exposed? They added athleticism at the starting 1 and 4 spots with Alston and Swift, more athleticism at backup 2 and 3 with Anderson, and Head(rookie may or may not contribute much) at the 1 and 2. They also have Howard back and healthy at the 4.

They only finished 5 games or so behind you last year when they got off to a horrible start and finished hot when TMac found his niche on the team, plus the addtions of Wesley, Sura and Barry. So after a 7 game series with them, an offseason of virtually no change by the Mavs, an offseason of targeted improvement by an upcoming Rocket team, and you seriously expect that the Rockets won't be able to make up those 5 games on you? :lol

PS...don't forget, they're already as good defensively as you only HOPE AJ can get make the Mavs. Big difference, being and hoping.

If Dirk develops his post up game he should be able dominate Mcgrady. Swift has no offense so I'm not worried about him. Alston is a headcase and poor on defense. Wesley, Barry, and Sura are getting older and these players are the reason for the big improvement for Houston from earlier in the season. Houston going small was a good strategy against Dallas. It forced Dampier out of the game because Dirk couldn't guard Mcgrady or Jon Barry so he had to guard Yao. Mcgrady at the 4 is a nightmare matchup for Dallas but putting Swift out there gives Dirk somebody that he can guard. Houston did what Phoenix did by going small. Going back to normal will take away the mismatch that highly favored Houston.

Swift's offense will come off of Yao and TMac. He was brought in for his hops around the basket on both ends of the court. The lack of a tall with hops was a shortcoming against the Mavs. It should be a nice rotation of Yao, Deke, Swift, and Howard in combos of offense and defense, depending on game situations.

I wouldn't dismiss Alston so easily. He was acquired days after JVG promised his team he wouldn't be bringing in any knuckleheads who wouldn't buy into the team. Would JVG really not do enough homework on the guy? Consider the situation in Toronto, compare that to Houston(JVG, TMac, Yao), and it's hard to believe he won't know his place and how lucky he is to have it. I've heard people claim he's a shoot first point, but I've heard just as many say he's a pure, pass first point. Both sides say they're right, so we'll just have to see which one Alston turns out to be. :lol

The key for Dallas was making Houston go small to give them whatever athleticism they could muster(not much). If they're able to stay big with Yao, athletic with Swift and TMac, and a more athletic,deeper backcourt that can only be better for Houston, not worse.

Alston hasn't impressed me at all. I saw he is undersized and Terry should be able to post him up or Daniels. Swift might be athletic but he has no jump shot which is very important to Houston for spacing reasons. Mike James leaving takes away their strongest guard who gave Dallas's guards some trouble. He also was a good defender so replacing him with Alston is not an improvement. If Howard does play he couldn't guard Dirk or Josh Howard. There are mismatches there. Wesley continues to get older so Houston has quantity guards but not quality. I expect Dampier to have a better showing now that he is in shape. Diop also can guard Yao. Dallas is a very young team and all these players are going to develop more. Harris, Daniels, Howard, Diop, Dirk, and Van Horn being healthy is key. Terry playing off the ball more because Christie and Howard have point guard skills. It is worthless talking about it but seeing Dallas in the preseason I have been impressed with their athleticism.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

If Dirk develops his post up game he should be able dominate Mcgrady. Swift has no offense so I'm not worried about him.

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If Dirk develops a post up game? He's 27 years old. This is his eighth year as a pro. He's 7 feet tall. Don't you think that he would have a post game by now if he was ever going to have one?

I don't want to rail too hard on dirk because that motherfucker can score, but he will never be an MVP if he can't use his size to his advantage down low. He's just too limited. You put a big 3 on him who can play D and his effectiveness is severely hampered.

And I was at that Houston-San Antonio preseason game (and yes I know it's just the preseason, but...) Swift looked like a baller. He was blocking Timmy's shots and hitting jumpers from all over the floor. He was streaky in Memphis, but saying that he has "no offense" is just an incorrect statement. I mean, the guy averaged 10 points in 20 minutes per game last year. That's pretty decent offense for a part that doesn't fit.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Wesley, Barry, and Sura are getting older and these players are the reason for the big improvement for Houston from earlier in the season.

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Stackhouse, Christie and Armstrong are actually older than that trio you named.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Mcgrady at the 4 is a nightmare matchup for Dallas but putting Swift out there gives Dirk somebody that he can guard.

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Dirk? Defense? What?!? And who guards McGrady? Howard? I think he already demonstrated that he can't handle that task in the first round last year.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Going back to normal will take away the mismatch that highly favored Houston.

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Don't short Van Gundy...that guy is a helluva coach and will find a way to exploit the defensive short-comings of the Mavs while feeding them a steady dose of TMac and Yao. Yao will mangle Dampier like a rag doll.

Houston is clearly the better team. They might finish within 2 or 3 games of each other depending on injuries and such, but neither has a shot at 60 games. That's written in stone. And in 7 games, right now before the start of the season, I'd pick Houston.

I'd like to hear why you'd pick Dallas

Dirk never developed a post game because he didn't have to. It was Nash that did all the work for Dirk taking outside jump shots. When Nash left Dirk worked mainly on his ball handling. Also Armstrong is the 12th man on Dallas and doesn't matter. The main guards Dallas will be playing are Harris, Daniels, Stackhouse, Christie, and Terry. That is clearly younger than Houston's backcourt of Wesley, J. Barry, Sura, and R. Alston. You are greatly underrating Dallas's upcoming players that will continue to get better. Dallas started getting the athletes last year to play defense but now it is completed and I see Dallas being a pretty good defensive team. Maybe a top 10. Listening to your ideas of the mavs you haven't seen Dirk in a while. He is actually a good defender now. He does it all for Dallas. Score, rebound, steals, and blocks. So Van Gundy made Jon Barry and Mcgrady a tough matchup for Dirk. :rolleyes
I don't think a coach can have that much influence in the game. He made a good decision with that lineup but having Swift would force him to play bigger.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Dirk never developed a post game because he didn't have to. It was Nash that did all the work for Dirk taking outside jump shots. When Nash left Dirk worked mainly on his ball handling. Also Armstrong is the 12th man on Dallas and doesn't matter. The main guards Dallas will be playing are Harris, Daniels, Stackhouse, Christie, and Terry. That is clearly younger than Houston's backcourt of Wesley, J. Barry, Sura, and R. Alston. You are greatly underrating Dallas's upcoming players that will continue to get better. Dallas started getting the athletes last year to play defense but now it is completed and I see Dallas being a pretty good defensive team. Maybe a top 10. Listening to your ideas of the mavs you haven't seen Dirk in a while. He is actually a good defender now. He does it all for Dallas. Score, rebound, steals, and blocks. So Van Gundy made Jon Barry and Mcgrady a tough matchup for Dirk. :rolleyes
I don't think a coach can have that much influence in the game. He made a good decision with that lineup but having Swift would force him to play bigger.

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Is this supposed to be Mavs talk or Spurs talk? No matter how you slice it, Mavs will get their asses waxed in the playoffs - by either the Spurs or someone else.

The only reason why Dirk never developed a post up game is because hes a whoossy! He hated the contact. He has improved in this aspect no doubt but when the going gets tough, he wont go in and bang it. He will just revert to his outside shot. If it falls good for him. If it doesnt then Dallas is dead meat.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

Dirk never developed a post game because he didn't have to.

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If that were true, do you realize how absolutely stupid that would make Dirk and the Mavs? What kind of superstar doesn't do everything they can in the offseasons to improve and round out their games? And what kind of team wouldn't want their franchise player to develop an all around game to make himself more unstoppable?

Can you imagine Duncan saying, "my bank shot is awesome, that's good enough for me, no need to work on post moves"? Or Hakeem, "my college reputation is defense, so I'm never going to use my hops and quickness to develop an offensive arsenal that'll make me unstoppable."

What franchise player in their right mind doesn't do everything possible to use their gifts and develop as much as possible?

I'm sure Dirk worked on it before. Probably as much as Duncan works on 3's. He never used it before because Nash was the playmaker. Dirk's role was revolved Nash and a post game wasn't used before. Now is solo purpose during the season is his post game. That is a big deal now for Avery's offense.

The Mavs suck.

They have a better chance of missing the playoffs than they do of winning 60 games.

:lmao

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Originally Posted by 50 cent

The Mavs suck.

They have a better chance of missing the playoffs than they do of winning 60 games.

:lmao

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There is no way the mavs will miss the playoffs. They are at least a 55 win team. Of course haters just say shit because they haven't watched them to know how good they are. I'm waiting for another blowout against the spurs. I loved Kerr kept making excuses like if Duncan was there it wouldn't be a blowout. After that the spurs start winning without Duncan so that excuse from Kerr is off. They still had Horry and Mohammad to play pf. The mavs just owned them than. I doubt that same mavs team would all of a sudden struggle to make the playoffs.

Ok folks, give the guy a break. He is just supporting his team, and that's just fine. The Mavs will not win 60+ games, but they will for sure make it to the playoffs.
On the other hand Mavsfan, don't start the trash talk against the Spurs, in a Spurs forum, cause you're just looking for trouble.
If you really think last year's Mavs where better than the Spurs and back it up with a Duncanless win, then you are delusional.
Don't forget you are talking about the WORLD CHAPIONS.

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Originally Posted by Spurs16212

I believe Kerr said it right.

1. San Antonio
2. Houston
3. Dallas
4. Memphis
5. New Orleans/Oklahoma City

The key for the Spurs is staying healthy. If they can, they should easily win 60+ games this season. Houston should win between 55 and 59 games. Dallas should come in with 50-54. This should be an interesting season for all three Texas teams.

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I agree Kerr's got it right.

It's a good thing that you are not putting your vbookie money where your mouth is or you would be broke for sure!

Seriously! Look, we didn't win 60 games last year and we were much, much better last year than Dallas is.

You gotta be careful with that stuff you're smokin! Must be strong. Watch out or some of these posters will ask if you got any more to go around!

I hope that you remembered to set your alarm clock! No matter, we'll wake you up right on time, Nov 1.

Without a serious low post scoring threat, you don't make it to the elite.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by 50 cent

The Mavs suck.

They have a better chance of missing the playoffs than they do of winning 60 games.

:lmao

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I won't say the Mavs suck. I'll leave that to others cuz they depends on how you define suck, but the man has a point when he says they have a better chance of missing the playoffs than they do of winning 60 games. That part is true.

We all know that every seriously good team has a great low post scorer/ post player.
I call this the high low rule: to be high at the top of the list you gotta have someone who can score down low

Spurs: Duncan
Pacers: Jermaine
Heat: Shaq
Pistons: Rasheed (whatever else we say about him, he's got tons of talent and I don't particularly care for him)
Houston: Yao (he only has two basic problems: foul trouble and stamina), but most of you all know he's got skillz
Phoenix: Stoudamire

Or look at the great teams in the past:
recent Lakers: Shaq
Lakers: Kareem
Celtics: McHale and Parrish

There is, of course, an exception if you have the best player to ever play the game in Michael Jordan combined with a top 50 in Pippen. Dallas doesn't have Michael so the Michael exception to the rule does not apply.

Houston: Olajuwon


Plus, you also have the two man rule:

Jordan and Pippen, Shaq and Kobe,
Majic and Kareem, Bird and McHale,
Duncan and Robinson, Duncan and Ginobili!
Nash and Stoudamire, Yao and TMac,
Stockton and Malone,

Most of the time you need two awesome players to become the best or one of the best.

So you've got the two rules: the high low rule and the two man rule.
The Mavs violate both of these rules and so what the man said is right on the money, more likely to miss the playoffs than win 60 games.

The Detroit Pistons didn't have much for a low post threat. Howard and Daniels are good postup players. They just aren't big men. Anyways I'm tired of arguing my point because it gets repetitive. I would bet vbookie that Dallas will win at least 55 games or be ahead of Houston.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

The Detroit Pistons didn't have much for a low post threat. Howard and Daniels are good postup players. They just aren't big men. Anyways I'm tired of arguing my point because it gets repetitive. I would bet vbookie that Dallas will win at least 55 games or be ahead of Houston.

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All right, let's see if they can set it up and put some vbookie money on the table and I don't want to hear any excuses at the end of the season about injuries or anything else. There may be a lot of takers on this bet.

I do think Rasheed posting up is a serious offensive threat and he did to us a lot in the Finals on important games. He basically kept the Pistons close to us in game 7. Then you add Ben for defense as defensive player of the year and Rasheed is long and athletic and Prince who is long. It's tough to score inside of them which is why they shut Parker down when he overpenetrated.

The Pistons have Rasheed and McDyess. They seem to have no low post threat to you cause they dont just go to anyone guy. Any of the starting lineup can light it up and they spread the points around.

And as for Dallas making the playoffs, On paper they should be able to make it. But anything can happen. Injuries could set in. If Dirk is out for the season would they make the playoffs? They would then struggle.

The Mavs won 55 or more games 4 times in their history (2005, 2003, 2002 and 1987), notice that 3 of those can be directly attributed to the Dirk era. They have been a very good offensive team, which helps them win a lot of games in the regular season, and they also rely on awkward lineups by Nellie to confuse the heck out of the other team. But as we have seen in the playoffs, in a 7 game series, the reliance on awkward sets doesn't work that well, because the other team will not be confused after one game and some tape, and lack of defense and an outside game rarely finds success in the postseason.
This year, the Mavs have Avery Johnson, pretty much a rookie coach, less offensive weapons, and they still lack the talent to play top-notch defense. They might do worse in the regular season, and better in the playoffs. 55 is certainly a possibility, but it's definitely not a guarantee. 60 games? Not likely.

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Originally Posted by conqueso

60 games? Are you kidding me? The Spurs have only won 60 games or better twice in the entire history of the franchise (94-95, 02-03). The Mavs have only done it once (02-03). And that Mavs team was absolutely stacked. Nowitzki, Finley, and Nash averaged 25.1, 19.3, and 17.7 points per game respectively. I can see Nowitzki putting up comparable (or better) numbers, but who's going to score like Finley and Nash? Who's going to come in off the bench and hit big shots like Van Exel? Who's going to construct a high-powered offensive attack like Don Nelson?

Hey, I love the Mavs, but 60 wins is a pretty big milestone for a team, and it took the Mavs the best group it's ever had to achieve that. You can't make a compelling argument that this year's Mavs are better than 02-03 (or maybe you can...I'd like to hear it). Depth only takes you so far. Those JailBlazers teams of the early naughts were as deep as the Pacific and couldn't even approach 60 wins. And they actually had talent that had been tested and found to be good. Dallas has a lot of potentional, but they can't win 60. Not in the West. Not with only one star. No way.

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:lol

Noone here, or in the media denies that the Mavs have been much better than we thought they would be, and don't forget, they're not at 60 wins yet, still a long way to go.

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Originally Posted by mavsfan1000

:lol

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About the Mavs winning 60...I'll take my crow with salt and a big glass of iced tea please! :lol

About the Mavs being better than Houston...the way the Mavs are playing, Houston's staggering injury list likely wouldn't have mattered. If they finish the season with an Astros-like push to the postseason, we'll see what they can do, but...a second helping of crow please!

You were right mavsfan1000. :king Enjoy the moment. :lol

The slow and soft Yao will actually become a cancer for the Rockets. Many teams know how to steal the ball easily from Yao.

The Rockets won't pass the first round, even if get a playoff spot.

:elephant