Advanced analytics say otherwise. He's overall the best option they have at the point guard position and it's really not close. He's actually been on of the only bright spots during this recent descend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinook
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Advanced analytics say otherwise. He's overall the best option they have at the point guard position and it's really not close. He's actually been on of the only bright spots during this recent descend.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinook
If Kyle Anderson is still on this team next season, it means we're still tanking, tbh
:lol At least I won’t see you around much more. That’s a win win by me. :downspin:Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono
You're leaving with Kyle? :tuQuote:
Originally Posted by SAGirl
The takeaway I get from this season is the Kawhi-Uncle-Injury drama. If Kawhi ends up leaving the Spurs look for ESPN to have a 30 for 30 on this saga 10-15 years from now.
Lol Nice comeback!Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono
Aside from his uncle, the whole thing has given me worry with that tendon. I hope my worries are nothing and that it’s mental or something. If it isn’t though...Quote:
Originally Posted by daslicer
If Kawhi doesn't comeback this season we won't find out what's really going on until the off-season. We are going to find out the truth soon within the next few months.Quote:
Originally Posted by SAGirl
I know there’s a whole lot of rumors going on between the uncle (he’s definitely having input in that shoe deal too), so you and others who have discussed it have good points. I have chosen to give Kiwi the benefit of the doubt that his body is really acting up. It’s just very weird and I do wonder if this is something that will plague him the rest of his career which is really my worry. We shall see. I might be worried over nothing and all this acting up is mental, the uncle, or something else.Quote:
Originally Posted by daslicer
This is the problem: You say that as if it's an empirical reality (that Murray should continue starting because over this year, the team has outscored their opponents with Murray on the and controlling for pace), and it's not. Advanced stats are just numbers without inference. Having a higher result after an equation is not the same thing as saying "this guy should be starting". It just doesn't. It's a logical problem that people just getting into analytics and advanced stats don't seem to get.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaNu4Tres
Yes, I understand that on-offs (which aren't really advanced stats) are less reliant on author's input and thusly don't have the same issues that stats like RPM, BPM and VORP do. Instead, they share the same weaknesses that box-score stats have: They don't have argumentative power. They just are what they are and are only useful when cut and contextualized. How that cutting and contextualizing is done is NOT fact and can be refuted.
EDIT: It also doesn't help that Murray's on-offs have been falling for a while now. Dude was plus-14 just a couple of weeks ago. Now he's plus-eight.
wow, I really agree here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinook
The problem is you simply have an issue with Murray for some reason. Maybe go back and read some of the things his teammates and coaches have said about him. He is a special talent and the eye test shows that. He needs to play more not less and he definitely has star potential. You will just look foolish again when he reaches that level just like your flawed takes on Kawhi’s development.Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinook
I really want Murray to do well, but he needs to start putting more pressure on those PnR. He's not even trying to turn a corner. That is why he's not creating for teammates and why his skills as a PG need development. He doesn't have to turn the corner for himself if the result is a tough shot that he's not comfortable with, but his quickness will either let him get there for a shot he can make or he can pass to someone bc he drew help. He's had better games than the one against the Grizzlies, lack of aggression running a PnR is the kiss of death as a PG... even Danny is either making a nice pocket pass to the big or turning a corner.... Kyle turns a corner and he's slow... perhaps Dijon doesn't have good enough ballhandling to turn the corner, or he's not strong enough and he gets pushed if the defender makes contact with his body. I don't know what it is.
You had me until the “Danny I can’t dribble turn the corner”. Lol
But I do agree with you he can create more pressure on defense by looking to take it to the rim when there is daylight. He should do that maybe do that two times a quarter.
You are right.. Danny doesn't turn corners, but bc he's a good shooter, he gets closed out hard which allows him to make plays off the dribble lately and get to the rim (more than previously)... Defenders also play really into his body to prevent the shot off, which also forces him to make plays off the dribble. They the do have different games but Danny right now is a better offensive player... still not an advantageous comparison to Dijon.Quote:
Originally Posted by BackHome
The problem with your theory when assessing the situation of Murray starting is that it holds little weight -- because it's just your subjective opinion w/ no statistical evidence to support your theory. There's no secret power behind your take that overrides facts such as statistical evidence. You want to point to Ws and Ls when Murray starts, but there's so many other factors that actually have to do with that-- which I already alluded to. You're really overthinking this and it seems like you're just trying to find anything to hold on to regarding Murray. It wasn't even 2 months ago when you said, he wasn't close to being ready or he "couldn't even dribble in practice".Quote:
Originally Posted by Chinook
By the way, I want to make this very clear. I'm not blindly just using advanced stats. My eyes watching this game for 25 years, help me form this opinion as well. Murray impacts the game in more ways than any ordinary traditional "point guard". Most fans can't see the small important things he does on both ends of the floor and just look at how he can't shoot ( which he's improved on in recent weeks btw). Parker was an super elite offensive point guard, but never really had an impactful overall game. If Murray keeps developing his offensive game, he has the potential to overcome Tony Parker as the best point guard the Spurs ever had.
FWIW... there's obviously some sarcasm to be applied here, and it isn't saying much when the team has been in a horrendous losing streak.
But let it be known Pop is prone to bench Kyle in 4th Q.. and did so against the Lakers. He only played 57 seconds in the 4th Q, to basically inbound a ball and play a couple of defensive possessions, after the team was already behind and thus the team lost that game. His minutes are always inconsistent past the 3rd Q. He only had one opportunity to close out a game against Denver and confidence in him was withdrawn after that blunder.. but sure veterans can lose game after game after game... playing 37 minutes etc.
I am hoping his showing against the Grizz restores some confidence in him.. but who knows? :pop:
I'm hoping the monumental effect shows up in the 3 point shooting. Mills, Bertans, and Green should all be shooting better, and a little extra confidence (from having Kawhi back) could really start to snowball.Quote:
Originally Posted by spurraider21
Spurs would have like 10 more wins right now if these "good 3 point shooters" just hit their wide open shots
the eye test? I've seen him get to the rim maybe once per game against a set defense, he can't get to the rim and he can't shoot. very few people in the world have the work ethic and dedication necessary to develop a shot and an unguardable move from scratch after reaching the pros like Kawhi did.Quote:
Originally Posted by acoelho1
Fuck off with your ad homenims. I've never once said Murray can't develop into a good player or whatever. Don't be missed at me just because I pointed out the obviously undercurrent to the agnostic stats. You can shill Murray all you want, but get your attacks right.Quote:
Originally Posted by acoelho1
As far as Kawhi, nothing I said was unreasonable at the time. I thought Leonard was going to be a top-10 small-forward when asked in his second season. There was nothing wrong in not thinking he was going to hit four straight power-ups to become a superstar. That was absurd. Any who says they predicted that is either lying or what a homer who likely has a history full of shitty takes that no one remembers. Being conservative or cynical doesn't make me a Murray-hater, and it doesn't make be a Kawhi-hater.
No, 14-16 is more powerful evidence than his general on-offs. One is actually a stat related to him starting; the other includes every minute he's played this season. You keep trying to explain that away, but then when someone even deigns to challenge his on-offs, you're all like "These are facts". They're both facts. One just has more relevance than the other, and it's not the on-offs. You're not even trying to actually cut the data to get to your conclusion; you're instead just misrepresenting what the number was capturing to make your point and then not feeling like you have to defend it.Quote:
Originally Posted by MaNu4Tres
You let the edit flow over, but Murray's on-off fell another half-point after last night's game. It's been trending down for a while now. That's just one of many reasons why you can't just look something up on a Web site and think it will carry the day with no more effort on your part.
Shitty ad homenim is shitty. You're making it sound like I wasn't happy about the pick as soon as it was made. Or that I didn't say that when Murray plays well that it is almost like a movement for the team. I can like him just fine and understand when he doesn't play well, what he needs to work on and how him starting affects the team.Quote:
You're really overthinking this and it seems like you're just trying to find anything to hold on to regarding Murray. It wasn't even 2 months ago when you said, he wasn't close to being ready or he "couldn't even dribble in practice".
btb, that "dribble" comment sounds much more like TGY's work. He used to say that all the time about Danny Green. I doubt I'd say that, since I haven't seen him practice. But I likely did criticize his dribbling toward the beginning of the season when he was legit dribbling poorly. He used to pretty much turn it over if he dribbled near the D at all. He's gotten somewhat better in his handles and significantly better at not trying to dribble at defenders without a clear purpose.
When I talk about the problems with advanced stats, I'm not talking about them in contrast to the mythical "eye-test". I'm talking about the fundamental problems in how the data is taken, formulated and cut. I don't advocate shirking them just to rely more on what you see on the court. I advocate taking more data and either making better formulae and cutting it more finely, or better yet releasing the raw data and tools to manipulate it ourselves so we can isolate the particular elements we want. Right now, we either have to look for a specific tweet where someone had done that, or we just have to look at what we can see and make some theories on how it translates over.Quote:
By the way, I want to make this very clear. I'm not blindly just using advanced stats. My eyes watching this game for 25 years, help me form this opinion as well. Murray impacts the game in more ways than any ordinary traditional "point guard". Most fans can't see the small important things he does on both ends of the floor and just look at how he can't shoot ( which he's improved on in recent weeks btw). Parker was an super elite offensive point guard, but never really had an impactful overall game. If Murray keeps developing his offensive game, he has the potential to overcome Tony Parker as the best point guard the Spurs ever had.
Murray needs to take a big offensive leap to get anywhere near Parker. To suggest Tony wasn't an impactful player in his prime is absurd, honestly. Regardless of what you want to say about his individual scoring, the whole team was built around him. The team has yet to find an offensive system to synergize with Kawhi the way it did with Tony. I have no idea how good Murray will end up being, but there's no amount of defense and rebounding that can equal being the HOTS for an elite offense during a title era.
yeah... for all of Parker's shortcomings, his 11-12 and 12-13 regular seasons were incredible, and he was getting MVP votes both years
I also thought he was great in '08-'09.Quote:
Originally Posted by spurraider21
We could also use a true rim protector.
A major problem when using RPM or BPM or any on/off metric(even when it's adjusted and accounts for teammates/competition) is evaluating a scenario like Murray's, where his role and level of competition suddenly changed in the middle of a season(in a major way, where he went from inconsistent minute allocation to a key starter)..
The biggest problem I have when looking at those particular numbers is that the total season number isn't reflective of current impact..unless you're actively tracking them, which would take an eternity and be a waste of time if you aren't getting paid for it, the overall number is misleading to an extent..
For example, if you looked at the overall numbers, it would appear that Pau Gasol is having a very good season..however, if you consistently follow the numbers and their progression(which I do), you would know that all of Pau's on/off metrics have dropped DRAMATICALLY since his great start to the season..he's still going to finish with a nice overall impact number, but the reality is that he's been horrendous for the past 2 months or so(unfortunately, nobody is going to take the time to track the entire league's numbers for a baseline and break those numbers down into monthly or bi-weekly figures)..
I'm fine with Murray's progression as a starter, though..I've been highly critical of him and I still don't think he knows how to play the PG position, but the alternatives are scarce..when Parker is rolling like he was last night, I'm straight with him getting those minutes, but you can't rely on him to do that consistently(it helps a ton that he's playing against bench defenses, too)..