ESPN Summer Forecast: Spurs projected to miss playoffs

I credit these predictions more to overhyping of the Jazz, Nuggets, and Pels. Not to say they won’t do well, but I bet at least one of those teams goes fishing when 8 other teams are hitting the postseason

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Originally Posted by sananspursfan21

I credit these predictions more to overhyping of the Jazz, Nuggets, and Pels. Not to say they won’t do well, but I bet at least one of those teams goes fishing when 8 other teams are hitting the postseason

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exactly. I predict the Jazz make it, and the Lakers will also be a new team to make it (just bc of LeBron). One (every year) injury to AD and the Pels slide to 9th. And the Nugz I will never believe in.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

The models also suggest that guys like LMA and DeRozan are neutral or negative in terms of impact on winning. It's fallacious. Maybe they aren't efficient enough to be an elite team or to dominate in the playoffs consistently, but in terms of getting the team up to a baseline in talent, they're about as good as anyone. We all saw how critical Aldridge was to winning last season, but most models predicted and continue to predict that he was putting up empty stats.

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true. a prediction is only as accurate as the model it is based on.

I can understand why they have our guys rated the way they do. I hope they prove all the doubters wrong though.

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Originally Posted by rjv

true. a prediction is only as accurate as the model it is based on.

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I'd go the other way. Models are only as good as the predictions they make. A model that only describes the present has almost no value. That goes double for models that allow folks to believe guys like Kyle Anderson and Robert Covington are more impactful than guys like DeRozan and Aldridge. Mind you, the stats that are used for the basis of that comparison are fine when contextualized appropriately, but the model used here fails to do that.

I think they'll make the playoffs and challenge 50 wins if everything goes right, but it's not outrageous to predict that they'll miss the playoffs..the difference between the Spurs/Nuggets/Wolves/Pelicans/Lakers/Blazers and even Utah/OKC is negligible..it'll probably be determined by injuries and luck..

This team is very difficult to predict, though..last year's team won 47 without anything from Kawhi, but they also beat up on the easiest schedule in the NBA to inflate their record early on(easier to do at that point while other teams don't have continuity yet)..OTOH, they lost like 10 games by 4th quarter meltdowns/blown double-digit leads directly attributed to the lack of a go-to perimeter option..

It's natural to assume that Aldridge won't be as good as last year, I'd bet anything against it..the defense will never be bad under Pop, but it's going to be significantly worse with DeRozan starting and Belinelli in the rotation(along with Bertans playing more)..

The shooting improved on the bench, but they're going to be using Murray/DeRozan/Aldridge/Gay as the highest usage players in 2018..disgusting.

Also have to consider the free bleeding that will come from DeRozan and Aldridge, never know how they'll feel at any point of the season:lol

No one believes in him anymore except me but Forbes will come up big this season. Book it.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Eh, the Spurs' Pythagorean win-loss record was 49-33 last season -- they actually underperformed record-wise.

The issue is more that advanced statistical models had Kyle Anderson as the best or second best player on the team. The models say that losing him will be a huge blow.

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For sure this is swaying things along with I saw it looks like point differential played a role.

I think SA wins at least 47 like last year but I do think they have more downside than most teams they are jumbled up with due to lack of defense and awkward fit.

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Originally Posted by Stabula

No one believes in him anymore except me but Forbes will come up big this season. Book it.

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I've always been on Team Forbes, tbh.

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Originally Posted by HarlemHeat37

I think they'll make the playoffs and challenge 50 wins if everything goes right, but it's not outrageous to predict that they'll miss the playoffs..the difference between the Spurs/Nuggets/Wolves/Pelicans/Lakers/Blazers and even Utah/OKC is negligible..it'll probably be determined by injuries and luck..

This team is very difficult to predict, though..last year's team won 47 without anything from Kawhi, but they also beat up on the easiest schedule in the NBA to inflate their record early on(easier to do at that point while other teams don't have continuity yet)..OTOH, they lost like 10 games by 4th quarter meltdowns/blown double-digit leads directly attributed to the lack of a go-to perimeter option..

It's natural to assume that Aldridge won't be as good as last year, I'd bet anything against it..the defense will never be bad under Pop, but it's going to be significantly worse with DeRozan starting and Belinelli in the rotation(along with Bertans playing more)..

The shooting improved on the bench, but they're going to be using Murray/DeRozan/Aldridge/Gay as the highest usage players in 2018..disgusting.

Also have to consider the free bleeding that will come from DeRozan and Aldridge, never know how they'll feel at any point of the season:lol

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:tu

Stat based models are one thing, but to opine that they'll miss, though not outrageous, is still disrespectful to the organization and specifically Aldridge/DeRozan. To paraphrase Riley, what about the residue of winning?

It's easy to criticize their archaic styles, but Aldridge has been the best or 2nd best player on essentially 5 straight 50+ win teams, in the West (I'm counting last season, since they easily eclipse it with relative health). DeRozan has been the 2nd best player on 3 straight 50+ win teams and the 2 seasons prior, they won 49 and 48. (I realize in the East and their best lineup has generally been Lowry + the 2nd unit, but still). They've also both been durable.

y’all trippin. a demar derozan led team out west is a lottery team tbh :lol

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Originally Posted by Kawhi’s_Conscience

y’all trippin. a demar derozan led team out west is a lottery team tbh :lol

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Good thing its a LaMarcus led team which we’ve seen get to the playoffs.

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Originally Posted by Kawhi’s_Conscience

y’all trippin. a demar derozan led team out west is a lottery team tbh :lol

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Bahahaha. Welcome to Spurstalk.

This is my thought initially since we lost Danny and KA without bringing any wings back that can defend well. Hopefully derozan isn't a faggot and tries to play some D

Last season was filled with easily spilled leads.

Another closer next to LMA was missing.

They've got it now + White & Murray's development. Also, 2nd unit will be beastly again.

Mind you, all that gets you by in the regular season. The playoffs are a different beast. The dissecting of the teams flaws can then rightfully begin.

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Originally Posted by pad300

ESPN ain't the only ones projecting the Spurs to miss the playoffs:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...t-next-season/

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538 is abc is espn

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Originally Posted by Holden_Caulfield

This is my thought initially since we lost Danny and KA without bringing any wings back that can defend well. Hopefully derozan isn't a faggot and tries to play some D

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Dejounte and White will improve our defense a little but the defensive deficit will still be great unless DeMar surprises us.

Offensively, a better Dejounte, White, Belli, and DeRozan should easily cover plus more with the offense a d spacing that we will get.

The argument that they snuck into the playoffs last year by 1 game is countered by the fact they missed the Top 4 & home court by 1 game. Spurs could very well have made the 2nd round last year if they'd faced the Blazers, Thunder or anyone else bar HOU/GS in 1st.

Stats models aren't good enough to predict seasons yet. Advanced stats are useful to analyze what has happened and can help to predict what will happen on a single game but still aren't complex enough to predict in the long term.

I think the low class of the league will improve respect past season. GSW is the only real contender and the followers are HOU and BOS if they are healthy and their pieces fit well. Behind them, there is a big group of playoff teams where the Spurs are. Injuries, in-season movements in the roster, team play, roles adaptation and chemistry will make the differences. I don't think Spurs has more or fewer chances of making the playoffs than any other team in that group. Variables are the same to all of them.

Can Spurs play good defense? can they make their offense work with the lack of 3pt shooters? will everybody find a role where can be helpful to the team and be happy? will the new adapt and the young progress? will the team be able of closing the games (this is a real concern to me)? Answers will set the winning record for the season, there are no stats that can answer yet.

I’m hoping Barkley picks the Spurs to finish last in Division! That would guarantee us a high seed.

Whatever.... They just assured we end up top 4.....ESPN= Every,Stupid,Predictable,Nobrainer!!

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Originally Posted by Holden_Caulfield

This is my thought initially since we lost Danny and KA without bringing any wings back that can defend well. Hopefully derozan isn't a faggot and tries to play some D

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Dejounte and White will improve our defense a little but the defensive deficit will still be great unless DeMar surprises us.

Offensively, a better Dejounte, White, Belli, and DeRozan should easily cover plus more with the offense and spacing that we will get.

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Originally Posted by SpursDynasty85

Dejounte and White will improve our defense a little but the defensive deficit will still be great unless DeMar surprises us.

Offensively, a better Dejounte, White, Belli, and DeRozan should easily cover plus more with the offense and spacing that we will get.

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white wont start. dude barely played last year. we wont be that much better offensively because Derozan is a ballhog and cant shoot 3s and beli is not a starter. we need a 3&D player really bad.

So adding a 25 point scorer will mame the Spurs worse than last year? These dudes get paid to spit shit. Im jelly.