ESPN Forecast: Spurs Have 3% Chance of Signing Jimmy Butler or Klay Thompson

No to Jimmy Butler, too injury prone. But I wouldn't mind Klay. We could use the defense and 3 point shooting for sure. Golden St. finds themselves in a very interesting scenario next year. With both Durant and Klay being free agents. They would have to choose between them right? Like the luxary tax would be ridiculous if they keep their core together?

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Originally Posted by Fusternino

Moving Bertans also makes it work. And I didn't realize his salary would be that high. Wolves really low-balled him on the contract extension in that case.

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There is also roster charges to deal with, that is $813,000 a pop, Spurs would have 7 players in the event that they are able to clear out Mill's, Beli, and Bertans, IIRC we would have to have 13 players under roster. Even If technically possible, it's super hard to maneuver.

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Originally Posted by cd021

There is also roster charges to deal with, that is $813,000 a pop, Spurs would have 7 players in the event that they are able to clear out Mill's, Beli, and Bertans, IIRC we would have to have 13 players under roster. Even If technically possible, it's super hard to maneuver.

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Yeah in my case the roster would be down to Aldridge/DDR/Murray/White/Walker/Poeltl (can re-sign Gay later with Early Bird rights). There's probably still well enough under the cap but I mean nothing more can be done other than getting Butler, re-signing Gay, signing the two first round picks, and then filling the rest of the roster using the MLE (can use part of this on Blossomgame/Metu to ensure they're under team control for 4 years) and minimum contracts.

So we are at Murray/DDR/Butler/Aldridge/Poeltl followed by White/Walker/Gay/Metu/minimum contract and then the two first round picks/Blossomgame/two minimum contracts. Maybe just play Aldridge at the 5 even moreso and move Poeltl to the bench.

Honestly, I was a big fan of trading for a package centered on Tobias Harris. Would he consider us in FA? Maybe we can get him for slightly less than 4/100. He's not a max player but I think he will continue to improve and get to keep Gasol and maybe even one more of Marco/Mills/Forbes/Bertans.

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Originally Posted by phxspurfan

lol most random odds ever

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:lol seriously. In the name of arbitrary and throwing shit so it can hopefully stick.

Really curious to see if Klay Thompson could carry a team.

With what cap? We got 108.9 mil committed next year on an anticipated 109mil cap.

We'd need to trade Mills + Gasol + 1 of Bertans or Beli + incentive for nothing and not resign Rudy gay to make a competitive offer. I love Jimmy, but realistically he'd need to be obviously gone and we'd have to trade with Minny to get him or do a sign and trade. Otherwise I just dont see it

Would love to have jimmy butler on the Spurs ... doubt it happens thou

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Originally Posted by Kobe'sAchilles

No to Jimmy Butler, too injury prone. But I wouldn't mind Klay. We could use the defense and 3 point shooting for sure. Golden St. finds themselves in a very interesting scenario next year. With both Durant and Klay being free agents. They would have to choose between them right? Like the luxary tax would be ridiculous if they keep their core together?

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Durant’s clearly a beta. He’d easily take less salary to remain with GSW. Benefits are obvious: rings, lighter load and favorable calls all the time.

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Originally Posted by SpursDynasty85

Your definition of alpha does not fit any of the Sours previous alphas. LMA did well in Portland but never got the shot to be alpha for the Spurs until last year. He overachieved. You're letting the media do the thinking for you.

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Also, there are many quiet alphas. Some include......
Timmy Duncan
Bill Russell
Arvydas Sabonis
Ramon "El Presidente" Fernandez
Hector Calma (teammare of Chip Engelland)
Ricardo Brown

Magnificent cagers, all of them

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Originally Posted by Realdeal1

Would love to have jimmy butler on the Spurs ... doubt it happens thou

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Plus the Manimal
,
,
,

Bogs Adornado is another quiet Alpha

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Originally Posted by Fusternino

Yeah in my case the roster would be down to Aldridge/DDR/Murray/White/Walker/Poeltl (can re-sign Gay later with Early Bird rights). There's probably still well enough under the cap but I mean nothing more can be done other than getting Butler, re-signing Gay, signing the two first round picks, and then filling the rest of the roster using the MLE (can use part of this on Blossomgame/Metu to ensure they're under team control for 4 years) and minimum contracts.

So we are at Murray/DDR/Butler/Aldridge/Poeltl followed by White/Walker/Gay/Metu/minimum contract and then the two first round picks/Blossomgame/two minimum contracts. Maybe just play Aldridge at the 5 even moreso and move Poeltl to the bench.

Honestly, I was a big fan of trading for a package centered on Tobias Harris. Would he consider us in FA? Maybe we can get him for slightly less than 4/100. He's not a max player but I think he will continue to improve and get to keep Gasol and maybe even one more of Marco/Mills/Forbes/Bertans.

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-Spurs would have to renounce Gay's rights in order to clear out his cap hold and use it towards signing a FA.

-Spurs cant go under the cap and then have access to the MLE. They would have the room exception but that is a fraction of the MLE.

-Unless they work out an S&T for Butler, its probably less than 3% that he is a Spur. PATFO would have to shed a bunch of salary, which isn't easily done and likely to cost multiple picks.

-Tobias at 4/$100 is way too much for him, at least for the Spurs and their assumed timeline (DeRozen can hit FA in two seasons, same year as Aldridge). They'd be better off drafting a 3 and pursing a vet stop gap until they figure out something more permanent.

-Spurs should absolutely stretch and waive Pau and move on with LMA, Poeltl, Milutinov, Bertans and Metu as the big man core.

-Mentioned this several times before, but Spurs should consider trading Gasol and a 2021 2nd for DeMarre Carrol around the deadline. It would save the Spurs having to pay Gasols' $6.7 million in guaranteed money for his last year, and give them a starting caliber 3 who is young enough (32) to be a stopgap starter for a couple of seasons. The Spurs would have bird rights to bring him back, without having to dip into the MLE. He ranked highly in DRPM and is a good 3pt shooter, on a high volume of attempts last season. With a rotation of;

Murray, DDR, Carrol, Bertans, Aldridge
Mills, Beli, Manu, Gay, and Poeltl

That rotation has better spacing and a higher ceiling, defensively.

-I think next off season will be fairly quiet for PATFO, they'll stretch and waive Gasol and save $13.7 million. They'd have about 10 million in cap if they move on from Gay and use their pick on a domestic player, plus two roster charges. In that case, they'd probably be better off keeping Gay (meaning no cap space), not stretching Gasol and taking all $6.7 million of his cap hit instead of spreading it over the 19-20, 20-21, and 21-22 season. They could use the MLE to bring over Milutinov, sign Metu to a cheap 3 year deal, that might leave the Spurs around $4 million of the $9 million MLE, plus $3.5 million of the BAE.

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Originally Posted by cd021

-Spurs would have to renounce Gay's rights in order to clear out his cap hold and use it towards signing a FA.

-Spurs are unlikely to get that Toronto pick, if it did, then it would be for the 2020 draft not 2019's.

-Spurs cant go under the cap and then have access to the MLE. They would have the room exception but that is a fraction of the MLE.

-Unless they work out an S&T for Butler, its probably less than 3% that he is a Spur. PATFO would have to shed a bunch of salary, which isn't easily done and likely to cost multiple picks.

-Tobias at 4/$100 is way too much for him, at least for the Spurs and their assumed timeline (DeRozen can hit FA in two seasons, same year as Aldridge). They'd be better off drafting a 3 and pursing a vet stop gap until they figure out something more permanent.

-Spurs should absolutely stretch and waive Pau and move on with LMA, Poeltl, Milutinov, Bertans and Metu as the big man core.

-Mentioned this several times before, but Spurs should consider trading Gasol and a 2021 2nd for DeMarre Carrol around the deadline. It would save the Spurs having to pay Gasols' $6.7 million in guaranteed money for his last year, and give them a starting caliber 3 who is young enough (32) to be a stopgap starter for a couple of seasons. The Spurs would have bird rights to bring him back, without having to dip into the MLE. He ranked highly in DRPM and is a good 3pt shooter, on a high volume of attempts last season. With a rotation of;

Murray, DDR, Carrol, Bertans, Aldridge
Mills, White, Manu, Gay, and Poeltl

That rotation has better spacing and a higher ceiling, defensively.

-I think next off season will be fairly quiet for PATFO, they'll stretch and waive Gasol and save $13.7 million. They'd have about 10 million in cap if they move on from Gay and use their pick on a domestic player, plus two roster charges. In that case, they'd probably be better off keeping Gay (meaning no cap space), not stretching Gasol and taking all $6.7 million of his cap hit instead of spreading it over the 19-20, 20-21, and 21-22 season. They could use the MLE to bring over Milutinov, sign Metu to a cheap 3 year deal, that might leave the Spurs around $4 million of the $9 million MLE, plus $3.5 million of the BAE.

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OK yeah I was just way off on the CBA rules.

And the Raptors pick will almost certainly remain a first-they only need to finish top 10. Is the 2019 draft even any good? Those two picks (ours, Raptors) might be useless in a trade unless some team really wants to trade down and lower risks.

So looking back to this year what's the plan if we don't sign someone outright for the last slot? I basically think it's delusional to count on Ariza or Carroll being bought out and coming here. They would go to a better team. We can send out like 3-4 camp invites and the salary is so small that even that plus a final minimum contract keeps us under the tax line, right?

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Originally Posted by Fusternino

OK yeah I was just way off on the CBA rules.

And the Raptors pick will almost certainly remain a first-they only need to finish top 10. Is the 2019 draft even any good? Those two picks (ours, Raptors) might be useless in a trade unless some team really wants to trade down and lower risks.

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The Raptors pick is top 21 protected, meaning that they would have to have one of the 8 best records to have to convey that pick. If Kawhi leaves then they likely won't be anywhere near that or possibly the playoffs-if they tear it down.

I highly doubt that pick conveys, so it'll be 2 second round picks instead.

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Originally Posted by Fusternino

So looking back to this year what's the plan if we don't sign someone outright for the last slot? I basically think it's delusional to count on Ariza or Carroll being bought out and coming here. They would go to a better team. We can send out like 3-4 camp invites and the salary is so small that even that plus a final minimum contract keeps us under the tax line, right?

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Ariza is probably not getting brought out, but Carroll and Dudley might. Houston has the tax payer MLE, so they would certainly be in line to sign him, that is why I want the Spurs to trade for him.

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Originally Posted by cd021

The Raptors pick is top 21 protected, meaning that they would have to have one of the 8 best records to have to convey that pick. If Kawhi leaves then they likely won't be anywhere near that or possibly the playoffs-if they tear it down.

I highly doubt that pick conveys, so it'll be 2 second round picks instead.

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You really think Raptors trade him before the deadline?

Thompson is an underrated piece of GS, tbh. Having a guy that can give you 20+ with barely having the ball on his hands for more than a second per touch is huge.

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Originally Posted by Fusternino

You really think Raptors trade him before the deadline?

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I meant that I think that Kawhi will likely head to L.A., if he decides to re-sign then there is a chance that that pick conveys but it seems unlikely. Toronto probably keeps him for the entire year, there is always a chance-even if its a small one, that he stays.

https://tenor.com/y18F.gifhttps://tenor.com/y18F.gif

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Originally Posted by cd021

The Raptors pick is top 21 protected, meaning that they would have to have one of the 8 best records to have to convey that pick. If Kawhi leaves then they likely won't be anywhere near that or possibly the playoffs-if they tear it down.

I highly doubt that pick conveys, so it'll be 2 second round picks instead.

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Raps pick is top 20 protected, and it’s for 2019, so Kawhi factors into it. Raps will almost certainly be a top 10 team.

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Originally Posted by Fusternino

And the Raptors pick will almost certainly remain a first-they only need to finish top 10. Is the 2019 draft even any good? Those two picks (ours, Raptors) might be useless in a trade unless some team really wants to trade down and lower risks.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

Raps pick is top 20 protected, and it’s for 2019, so Kawhi factors into it. Raps will almost certainly be a top 10 team.

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Both you are right, that pick will likely convey. IDK why I thought that pick was for the 2020 draft, its 2019 draft.

That pick should be around 25, the pick only needs to fall between 21-30 with GSW, Houston, Boston, and Philly probably being ahead of them a with a fairly open field after those five teams.

I like that deal a little bit better now.

Philly won't be better than the Raptors.

Spurs are one all-star caliber player and some injury luck from the Warriors away from competing for championship in the next two years. We need an upgrade at Center and backup SF. I thing a deal with Miami could solve this issue. We could trade Gasol, Mills, and Toronto 2019 1st to Miami for Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow. Salaries match. Whiteside adds rebounding, shot blocking, and inside scoring. He and Aldridge would be huge inside. Winslow is a terrific SF defender and 3 point specialist (a la Bruce Bowen). I actually think Winslow could start at SF and Gay would be 6th man of the year anchoring the second unit. We would miss Mills, but we have White and Forbes who are ready for more minutes at backup PG. Ginobili can also play PG if needed. Whiteside supposedly has an attitude problem, but he is mad because they benched him in favor of Bam Adabayo in the playoffs after he struggled with injuries last season. Ok, Miami likes Adabayo, that only makes Whiteside expendable. Good for us. Whiteside loves playing for Messina, he could be key to getting him to buy into the Spurs way. This deal would make the Spurs set for two years. We would move ahead of Houston and in range of GS. A key injury at the right time to GS and we are hoisting the trophy.

Another option for the Spurs to upgrade the roster would be to stay the course in 2018 and upgrade during 2019 free agency. In order to even play in this ensuing bloodbath the Spurs will have to get cap space they currently don't have. Getting rid of Gasol and Mills would be required, maybe others like Belinelli, Gay, and Bertans as well. This is not easy since many teams are signing up for the bloodbath and don't want to take on existing contracts, so trading these players before free agency will not be easy.

In looking at the 2019 free agent class, I only see two realistic possibilities who could help the Spurs and might choose SA. Jimmy Butler and Tobias Harris. Klay will stay with GS. The others play positions we are set at or will not choose the Spurs. Butler will be very expensive. We would have to gut the roster to keep our core and sign him. Is anyone really worth $35mm per year? OK, maybe LeBron, KD, and Leonard (ouch). Harris on the other hand is nearly an all-star and plays SF/PF. He is a proven scorer and might be able to be had for around $20-25 mm per. We could probably keep Gay, Marco, and Bertans, losing only Gasol and Mills. Adding Harris would make the Spurs a strong contender as Poeltl could replace Gasol and White/Forbes could replace Mills. We also have Mulitinov coming in in 2019 or 20020. The downside to this strategy is that the market for good 2019 free agents will be crazy and some team may offer even Harris a max contract. Hello Kings, Grizzlies, Clippers (if they lose out on Kawhi).