Spurs Draft Discussion: 2019 NBA Draft

I only put in Forbes because when Murray comes back and Walker gets better his time is going to decrease which is not good in a contract year. And yeah Philly could really use help with outside shooting so I think they would bite. But to be honest I think this draft is going to be the craziest one we have seen in a awhile lots of trades are going to happen. Big Time

Sorry have to disagree with you if Mills and Forbes start or get more minutes then White and Murray well that would be 4 players who asked to be traded in 3 years. Cause if I was there agent I would tell White and Murray to pack their bags

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Originally Posted by BG_Spurs_Fan

I don't think Clarke could make it as a forward in today's NBA, unless it's a very specific team setup. I see him as a Jordan Bell type of undersized center, which diminishes his value.

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I see no reason at all he can't play next to LMA. Today's NBA fours are not just SFs. They tend to still be bigger and slower than their counterparts at the three. Just like how PATFO sees Metu as a forward and not a center, I think they'd see the same from Clarke. Like would he play the five in certain lineups and in something like the summer league? Yeah, probably. But he's excelling now despite playing with a PF with significantly less range than Aldridge. Yeah, playing with Murray, White and DeRozan seems like a no-go for now with his lack of range. But get him a corner three, and by the time DeMar sloughs off the roster, you've got your new defensive anchor.

Not that I don't hope that everyone views Clarke like you do. He's projected as a comfortable top-20 pick, but him falling to 29 really feels possible given his age and current skill-set. I'd love to catch a small-forward with the team's natural pick and then have my pick of PFs with 29. Lawson and Roby are guys that really interest me anyway. Adding him Clarke just makes it that much better.

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Originally Posted by BackHome

I only put in Forbes because when Murray comes back and Walker gets better his time is going to decrease which is not good in a contract year. And yeah Philly could really use help with outside shooting so I think they would bite. But to be honest I think this draft is going to be the craziest one we have seen in a awhile lots of trades are going to happen. Big Time

Sorry have to disagree with you if Mills and Forbes start or get more minutes then White and Murray well that would be 4 players who asked to be traded in 3 years.

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Why? First, I never said that both Mills and Forbes would start or that they'd get more minutes. But Murray/White/DeRozan may not work for a lot of reasons. I expect that Pop will want to make it work, just like he wanted to make Gay/Aldridge/Gasol work this season. But there's a really good chance White or Murray end up benched just because they can't play together. And Murray's still a really unstable asset. It won't be hard to bench him because he's "coming back from injury". I don't expect Walker to get minutes with Beli on the club anyway, so I'm not even factoring him in. I also don't think this will be a problem after next year, since Murray, Beli and DeRozan could all be gone. So could Poeltl, Gay, Bertans and Aldridge, which is why drafting multiple bigs shouldn't be off the table.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Being able to shoot is that important. It's just as important as playing defense. It's just as important as having size. The Spurs are playing Bryn because they want to, not because they have to.

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I was with everything else you said in this thread until that. Shooting is important, but it can't overcome a total lack of defense. Just like defense is important, but it can't overcome a total lack of shooting. On nights when shots aren't falling, a team can still keep a game close by playing solid D. And they can wind up "winning ugly" a lot of the time, if they are mentally tough. Forbes is a net negative. Having him on the floor is like saying you can sell a product below cost, but make up for it in volume.

I agree that Pop is playing him because he wants to. He tried to shoehorn him into a PG role and that was a disaster. So now he's a very undersized SG who does damn near nothing but move around the 3P line. When he's in, especially with DeRozan, the Spurs are trading buckets - if they're lucky. And that's not just me saying so - the numbers say so too. The only 2-man combo worse than Forbes/DeRozan is Beli/DeRozan. And that's in a whole bunch of categories - whether it's NetRtg, AST/TO, EFG%, etc.

The Spurs need both of those guys now. Next year I think they would be able to make roster adjustments and be better off without Forbes. But I totally agree that nobody is going to give the Spurs anything for him, so it's sort of a moot point. But if we're daydreaming? I'd trade him for a chance to move up in a heartbeat.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

The obsession with trading Forbes is weird to me. Folks simultaneously think he has late-first value and that he NEEDS to be dealt away. No. Bryn is as useful if not more to the Spurs than he is to any other team. If SA doesn't need him, no one else is going to give up anything for him. Obviously, getting his shooting in a bigger player would be cool. But failing that, Pop is going to keep playing him, and Mills, and they will take minutes from Murray and White. Being able to shoot is that important. It's just as important as playing defense. It's just as important as having size. The Spurs are playing Bryn because they want to, not because they have to. Regardless, dude's going to be an expiring role-player who's skill-set is the most common to find. Nobody is paying much for him when guys like Napier and Seth Curry float from team to team each year.

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Think Bryn HAS value and because he does he might add some value to #29, if say the guys the Spurs want is at #20.

It’s been a challenging season as a fan, and for me one of the transitions in my fandom is realizing that the current roster as constructed cant really go that far. Where there was a deep attachment to players in the past, it’s cold to have to see them (even ones you think are great humans/have great stories of overcoming odds) as assets. Forbes is one of those great stories, but his “value” will probably never be higher.

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Originally Posted by CGD

Think Bryn HAS value and because he does he might add some value to #29, if say the guys the Spurs want is at #20.

It’s been a challenging season as a fan, and for me one of the transitions in my fandom is realizing that the current roster as constructed cant really go that far. Where there was a deep attachment to players in the past, it’s cold to have to see them (even ones you think are great humans/have great stories of overcoming odds) as assets. Forbes is one of those great stories, but his “value” will probably never be higher.

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I doubt Bryn could move you up more than 2-3 spots. Thinking 9 spots is a pipe dream...like a crack pipe.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Why? First, I never said that both Mills and Forbes would start or that they'd get more minutes. But Murray/White/DeRozan may not work for a lot of reasons. I expect that Pop will want to make it work, just like he wanted to make Gay/Aldridge/Gasol work this season. But there's a really good chance White or Murray end up benched just because they can't play together. And Murray's still a really unstable asset. It won't be hard to bench him because he's "coming back from injury". I don't expect Walker to get minutes with Beli on the club anyway, so I'm not even factoring him in. I also don't think this will be a problem after next year, since Murray, Beli and DeRozan could all be gone. So could Poeltl, Gay, Bertans and Aldridge, which is why drafting multiple bigs shouldn't be off the table.

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Reading between the lines, gay signs a 3 year deal. DD signs an extension similar to LMA. One of Beli, Mills, bertans, Forbes goes. Poeltl and Murray sign extensions. Spurs use full MLE. Spurs draft best available and not position of need.

Spurs usually retain their players.

We traded Sean Freaking Elliott so do not tell me why can’t trade Forbes, and Mills. I personally think we can use Forbes and Raptors pick to move up 3 or 4 spots and if we not bringing Nikola then don’t waste him try to use him to move up in draft he was a first round should help.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

I doubt Bryn could move you up more than 2-3 spots. Thinking 9 spots is a pipe dream...like a crack pipe.

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Maybe 9 slots is too aggressive but 4-5 maybe not. I can see a spacing challenged team like the Thunder drafting in the early 20s who might have interest in moving back.

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Originally Posted by ZeusWillJudge

I was with everything else you said in this thread until that. Shooting is important, but it can't overcome a total lack of defense. Just like defense is important, but it can't overcome a total lack of shooting. On nights when shots aren't falling, a team can still keep a game close by playing solid D. And they can wind up "winning ugly" a lot of the time, if they are mentally tough. Forbes is a net negative. Having him on the floor is like saying you can sell a product below cost, but make up for it in volume.

I agree that Pop is playing him because he wants to. He tried to shoehorn him into a PG role and that was a disaster. So now he's a very undersized SG who does damn near nothing but move around the 3P line. When he's in, especially with DeRozan, the Spurs are trading buckets - if they're lucky. And that's not just me saying so - the numbers say so too. The only 2-man combo worse than Forbes/DeRozan is Beli/DeRozan. And that's in a whole bunch of categories - whether it's NetRtg, AST/TO, EFG%, etc.

The Spurs need both of those guys now. Next year I think they would be able to make roster adjustments and be better off without Forbes. But I totally agree that nobody is going to give the Spurs anything for him, so it's sort of a moot point. But if we're daydreaming? I'd trade him for a chance to move up in a heartbeat.

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Forbes isn't that negative. He actually grades out as a borderline starting guard in terms of impact stats. RPM has him as a negative on D, but almost every guard is a negative there. Spurs fans have a strange need to hate their own players, but Bryn really isn't failing to do things he's supposed to do. His D looks particularly bad until you realize that everyone's D looks bad. What's more true in the NBA than anything with modern defenses is that spacing and shooting are king. Small-ball still isn't a better defensive option than playing two bigs. The only time the scales tip is when there are four shooters to contend with. When you play a bunch of guys who can't or won't shoot together, you let opposing coaches play big. If Murray has figured out how to shoot threes, and if White gets his stroke back, maybe they can eventually scheme a way to work together. But the reality is you don't NEED an elite D, and especially an elite defensive unit, to win. It's really easy to imagine a Murray/White/DeRozan combo losing more matchups than the current one does. In the very least, it could be a lineup prone to slow offensive starts. Benching Murray or maybe White for Forbes or Mills may just end up being something Pop tries and sticks with.

My issue with Forbes and now Mills is their size. Contesting 3s is important. Players are now rising above them and shooting clean shots. Because you cannot crowd shooters, length is a must. Also both are poor offball stealers. Again length helps here. Both don't add to that.

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Originally Posted by CGD

Maybe 9 slots is too aggressive but 4-5 maybe not. I can see a spacing challenged team like the Thunder drafting in the early 20s who might have interest in moving back.

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Spur fans over rating their players. No one is making a trade for Forbes by moving down in the draft for any slots.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Forbes isn't that negative. He actually grades out as a borderline starting guard in terms of impact stats. RPM has him as a negative on D, but almost every guard is a negative there. Spurs fans have a strange need to hate their own players, but Bryn really isn't failing to do things he's supposed to do. His D looks particularly bad until you realize that everyone's D looks bad. What's more true in the NBA than anything with modern defenses is that spacing and shooting are king. Small-ball still isn't a better defensive option than playing two bigs. The only time the scales tip is when there are four shooters to contend with. When you play a bunch of guys who can't or won't shoot together, you let opposing coaches play big. If Murray has figured out how to shoot threes, and if White gets his stroke back, maybe they can eventually scheme a way to work together. But the reality is you don't NEED an elite D, and especially an elite defensive unit, to win. It's really easy to imagine a Murray/White/DeRozan combo losing more matchups than the current one does. In the very least, it could be a lineup prone to slow offensive starts. Benching Murray or maybe White for Forbes or Mills may just end up being something Pop tries and sticks with.

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I think people makes forbes tradable because his D is bad( something everybody will agree) and he could have a little value With his shooting. One thing about him is that if his shoot is not falling he is useless , that’s the case for weeks as he is shooting under 40% last 30 days... plus you can find players who can shot the ball with more size, ballhandling skills, IQ...

Spurs need a SF who can contribute right away with defense and 3-point shooting. If there's somebody in the draft around 12-18th pick they should definitely try to move up/package both picks. That should be the main focus. If they can get who they want then draft whoever else is on the radar with the Raptors pick. But more than anything they need an SF who can get minutes ASAP and has potential

I think Forbes has turned himself into an NBA player and is probably worth a late first/ early 2nd rounder in terms of value. That being said, he isn't essential to this team. Next years team could still use him but probably wouldn't be worse off without him.

Pop may end up going with six guards in the rotation so it's probably not a big deal;

Murray, Forbes, DeRozan, Gay, Aldridge
White, Mills, Beli, Bertans, Poeltl


Spurs still would be good to draft a wing and a big to keep in the wings for beyond next season. Filling out the rest of the roster with young players with upside is better than the Cunningham, Pondexter types.
Walker, 1st rounder, Metu, 1st rounder.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

Forbes isn't that negative. He actually grades out as a borderline starting guard in terms of impact stats. RPM has him as a negative on D, but almost every guard is a negative there. Spurs fans have a strange need to hate their own players, but Bryn really isn't failing to do things he's supposed to do. His D looks particularly bad until you realize that everyone's D looks bad. What's more true in the NBA than anything with modern defenses is that spacing and shooting are king. Small-ball still isn't a better defensive option than playing two bigs. The only time the scales tip is when there are four shooters to contend with. When you play a bunch of guys who can't or won't shoot together, you let opposing coaches play big. If Murray has figured out how to shoot threes, and if White gets his stroke back, maybe they can eventually scheme a way to work together. But the reality is you don't NEED an elite D, and especially an elite defensive unit, to win. It's really easy to imagine a Murray/White/DeRozan combo losing more matchups than the current one does. In the very least, it could be a lineup prone to slow offensive starts. Benching Murray or maybe White for Forbes or Mills may just end up being something Pop tries and sticks with.

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You stayed away from the fact that Forbes/DeRozan together is a disaster, which is the meat of what I said. And you KNOW that DeRozan is going to be starting next season. So what does that leave?

I don't hate Forbes, and I don't have a problem with the Murray/White/DeRozan combo you mentioned. What I said, and what I still say, is that Forbes/DeRozan together is a disaster. The numbers are undeniable, but you don't have to pull stats to see it.

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Originally Posted by cd021

I think Forbes has turned himself into an NBA player and is probably worth a late first/ early 2nd rounder in terms of value. That being said, he isn't essential to this team. Next years team could still use him but probably wouldn't be worse off without him.

Pop may end up going with six guards in the rotation so it's probably not a big deal;

Murray, Forbes, DeRozan, Gay, Aldridge
White, Mills, Beli, Bertans, Poeltl


Spurs still would be good to draft a wing and a big to keep in the wings for beyond next season. Filling out the rest of the roster with young players with upside is better than the Cunningham, Pondexter types.
Walker, 1st rounder, Metu, 1st rounder.

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Like you, I think Forbes has decent value - at least early 2nd round. I really have a hard time believing that Pop - even Pop - will hang on to as many backcourt players as we would have next season without a move. It might be a small (even inconsequential) move, but I do expect Pop to trade one of our backcourt guys before next season begins.

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Originally Posted by ZeusWillJudge

You stayed away from the fact that Forbes/DeRozan together is a disaster, which is the meat of what I said.

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It's not a disaster. It's slightly negative. You're talking about a duo who's started 61 games together and are 33-28 in that span. Forbes and DeRozan are an inextricable combo, and I didn't comment on that in the same way I didn't comment on the Forbes/Aldridge combo. It's been a rock-core part of the team the whole year, not some random experiment like Bertans or Poeltl starting. Both the bad and the good has come with that duo in the first unit. The times they figured out how to play really good defense, Bryn was right there too. I know you're find with Murray/White/DeRozan, but my point was that that may easily not work as well as Forbes/White or Murray/DeRozan. Defense is schematic way more than it's personnel-based. Having a solid year with the same starting unit could make more of a difference than any forward or Murray returning.

Or it may not. But everyone thinks they have this clear-cut solution, and that involves trading away an important offensive player and hoping that three guards with shooting problems, a post big and a forward whose shooting has already fallen back down to his career levels can somehow make a modern offense work.

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Originally Posted by ZeusWillJudge

I don't hate Forbes, and I don't have a problem with the Murray/White/DeRozan combo you mentioned.

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I am actually worried about that specific lineup a bit. If Murray still can't shoot, and DeRozan is a still an absolute non-factor without the ball then it means that White probably won't be able to play on ball as he should. DeRozan would probably be the primary ball handler, White may is hitting about 35% on 3's but he's a relatively low volume 3pt shooter. Murray will have figure out how to fit in the half court. Gay would probably have to start just to maintain spacing.

I think Forbes would have some value on next years team, even if it's just starting and playing the first 7 minutes of each half. He is a better shooter than White and wouldn't require the ball. White would better suited as primary ball handler of the second unit while still playing starter-level minutes off the bench it would also allow for the Spurs to have an above average defensive guard on the floor at all times.

A

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Originally Posted by cd021

I am actually worried about that specific lineup a bit. If Murray still can't shoot, and DeRozan is a still an absolute non-factor without the ball then it means that White probably won't be able to play on ball as he should. DeRozan would probably be the primary ball handler, White may is hitting about 35% on 3's but he's a relatively low volume 3pt shooter. Murray will have figure out how to fit in the half court. Gay would probably have to start just to maintain spacing.

I think Forbes would have some value on next years team, even if it's just starting and playing the first 7 minutes of each half. He is a better shooter than White and wouldn't require the ball. White would better suited as primary ball handler of the second unit while still playing starter-level minutes off the bench it would also allow for the Spurs to have an above average defensive guard on the floor at all times.

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Your thinking is too linear. Start White, have him play off the ball with the starters, then run the show when DD sits down.

With Murray back and hopefully Walker figuring it out Forbes playing time will dramatically decline. It would be best for all parties if we could package him in a trade to another team.

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Originally Posted by Chinook

It's not a disaster. It's slightly negative. You're talking about a duo who's started 61 games together and are 33-28 in that span. Forbes and DeRozan are an inextricable combo, and I didn't comment on that in the same way I didn't comment on the Forbes/Aldridge combo. It's been a rock-core part of the team the whole year, not some random experiment like Bertans or Poeltl starting. Both the bad and the good has come with that duo in the first unit. The times they figured out how to play really good defense, Bryn was right there too. I know you're find with Murray/White/DeRozan, but my point was that that may easily not work as well as Forbes/White or Murray/DeRozan. Defense is schematic way more than it's personnel-based. Having a solid year with the same starting unit could make more of a difference than any forward or Murray returning.

Or it may not. But everyone thinks they have this clear-cut solution, and that involves trading away an important offensive player and hoping that three guards with shooting problems, a post big and a forward whose shooting has already fallen back down to his career levels can somehow make a modern offense work.

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https://stats.nba.com/lineups/advanc...mID=1610612759

Forbes/DeRozan have played 1349 minutes together, and have the worst NetRtg of any two player combo other than Beli/DeRozan.

You can't get around that.(I'm not counting fringe combos with Cunningham or Pondexter that don't belong in a discussion of starters.)

Forbes/DeRozan have a shameful AST/TO ratio as a combo - that's because they both cough up the ball when pressured. When they are both on the floor at the same time, the Spurs also lose too many possessions as a result.

Forbes/DeRozan also have the worst TS%, and third worst EFG%, which doesn't exactly support the idea that those two need to be on the floor because of their shooting.

Forbes/White and DeRozan/White both have positive NetRtg, better EFG% and TS%.

I'll say it again: Forbes and DeRozan on the floor together is a losing proposition. They both have their good points, but we KNOW that DeRozan is going to be starting, which means that Forbes needs to not be starting - or on the floor with DeRozan at all, if it can be avoided. I think that makes him expendable. I know the Spurs aren't going to trade him, and couldn't get much if they tried. But any team that has Forbes and DeRozan starting together will be mediocre, because there is just too big of a defensive hole to consistently make up for on the offensive end.

White/Forbes and White/DeRozan both have positive NetRtg, much better EFG% and TS%, better AST/TO, etc.

Forbes is fools gold. Call me when he doesn't get thrashed in a playoff series and is a net positive for this team.

Lol the logic in this thread. “Forbes sucks. Let’s use him as trade-bait to move up multiple spots in the draft!”

One guy who could be avalaible at 17-20. People may not like him as he’s a foreign player, young( just turn 18) and not ready yet but he could be interesting and playing in french League is not easy for a young guy.

https://twitter.com/mike_schmitz/sta...175489026?s=12