Playoff Preview: Spurs vs. Nuggets - 2019 First Round Series

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Originally Posted by timvp

Alright. So if Manu got thrown under the bus to the media more often, he would have been motivated to play smarter. Got it.

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Spurs would have at least 6 or 7 rings (probably a back to back somewhere in there) if Phil coaches instead of Pop.

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Originally Posted by HWoodNixon

Spurs would have at least 6 or 7 rings (probably a back to back somewhere in there) if Phil coaches instead of Pop.

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K.

Thank you TIMVP! Your analysis the most reasonable! I agree with you, not those ESPN 19 "experts" who picked against spurs. Playoff experience does mater. Recent play does mater. The spurs are a better team. Spurs in 6 or less is a no brainer.

I hope the Spurs were rushed off the court after the Mavs game and onto a plane headed for Denver to acclimate.

I don't think the Spurs are going to be doubling jokic. Make him take 25+ shots a game. That's not what he likes to do. Maybe start doubling in crunch time and watch these first-timers fold down the stretch

Nuggets in 5

Too many bad defenders who lose their guys all the time, and even when they stay with them, can be driven on right to the rim. Denver is made for bucket after bucket followed by Marco, Mills and Forbes just shaking their heads and shrugging their shoulders

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Originally Posted by timvp

I'd be genuinely interested in what coaching mistakes you think were made in that series, tbh. The way I remember it, the Spurs lost because: Kawhi suffered some shriveling and allowed Matt Barnes to shut him down in key moments; Parker, Ginobili and Green were all bad (looking back, Parker hit only 36.3% of his shots and Ginobili and Green were even worse -- tough to win when three key cogs shoot bricks, tbh); Splitter was injured per usual and sucked, Baynes replaced the injured Splitter and sucked even more and Diaw went from big boned to chunky and got destroyed by Blake Griffin. Going player-by-player, only Duncan and Belinelli played at or above their expected level for the Spurs. For the Clippers, Griffin, CP3, Redick, Jordan and Barnes all played well.

I think Doc Rivers is an underrated coach and deserves credit for coaching well that series but I don't remember Pop being "horrible, absolutely horrible," tbh. What am I misremembering? I know there was some second-guessing his sitting of Kawhi for a stretch in Game 7 but other than that, I don't remember anything too blatant. Judging by the poor performances Pop had to work with, it looks miraculous that the series even went seven games -- much less to the buzzer of the seventh game.

All that said, I don't think the Spurs have too much of a notable coaching advantage against the Nuggets. Malone's a good coach and runs smart schemes. I'd give Pop a slight edge due to experience but coaching is overblown in the postseason. IMO, coaches can't really win or lose series in the NBA other than extremely rare circumstances.

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I can't speak for you you're asking, but the Hack-a-player in that series was beyond stupid and cost them big. It only ever made sense against a team like the Nash-Suns by disrupting their rhythm and slowing them down. Against the Clippers was awful.

Pop had giant errors in clutch that whole season. What did they lose, 2 or 3 games on final possession inbound plays by making Duncan the inbounder? I seem to remember they had 2 3OT losses that had wtf coaching moments.

Great analysis. I really hope Pop plays DeRozan with the bench a lot. Our bench doesn't function well with Mills as a playmaker, he makes the wrong read almost every time. Add Belinelli at SG and that's a recipe for disaster on defense. DeMar playing point for the bench unit raises their efficiency because they get better looks through his drive and kick game. One of White and DeRozan should be out there all the time and also one of Aldridge and DeRozan should be out there all the time. And maybe Pop can pull a rabbit out the hat like he did against Houston in 2017

One problem with White is, that because he was sat all last year despite obviously being one of the 4 best guards on the team, is that the referees treat him like a rookie despite being a second year player.

He gets zero respect and worst damn calls. Because these refs didn't ref him a bunch last year.

And it'll happen with Lonnie next year. He'll get shit fouls called on him, and bad no-calls on drives.

Because playing him as a rookie wouldn't be fair to the team, this year is not for Walker.

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Originally Posted by timvp

I'd be genuinely interested in what coaching mistakes you think were made in that series, tbh. The way I remember it, the Spurs lost because: Kawhi suffered some shriveling and allowed Matt Barnes to shut him down in key moments; Parker, Ginobili and Green were all bad (looking back, Parker hit only 36.3% of his shots and Ginobili and Green were even worse -- tough to win when three key cogs shoot bricks, tbh); Splitter was injured per usual and sucked, Baynes replaced the injured Splitter and sucked even more and Diaw went from big boned to chunky and got destroyed by Blake Griffin. Going player-by-player, only Duncan and Belinelli played at or above their expected level for the Spurs. For the Clippers, Griffin, CP3, Redick, Jordan and Barnes all played well.

I think Doc Rivers is an underrated coach and deserves credit for coaching well that series but I don't remember Pop being "horrible, absolutely horrible," tbh. What am I misremembering? I know there was some second-guessing his sitting of Kawhi for a stretch in Game 7 but other than that, I don't remember anything too blatant. Judging by the poor performances Pop had to work with, it looks miraculous that the series even went seven games -- much less to the buzzer of the seventh game.

All that said, I don't think the Spurs have too much of a notable coaching advantage against the Nuggets. Malone's a good coach and runs smart schemes. I'd give Pop a slight edge due to experience but coaching is overblown in the posted son. IMO, coaches can't really win or lose series in the NBA other than extremely rare circumstances.

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While I agree with your points there were some coaching mistakes in that series. Like going to hack-a-Jordan when the Spurs were hot or not being able to defend the double screen pick and roll that the Clippers ran to death that series. Parker while injured got overplayed. Mills was the one hitting shots that series and should've clearly played more minutes, but Pop was riding with Tony. They are basically equal on defense so it would've made a difference.

Denver is a year away (in player development, coaching and becoming battle tested) from being a perennial powerhouse. But right now, I'd say Aldridge and DeRozan are better than Jokic and Murray. If White, Forbes and Gay can match Harris, Millsap and Barton (or whoever is their 6th man these days), Spurs will be in good shape to steal a game in Denver and hold serve at home. If White shits the bed, Gay gets hurt (again), or Denver's kids go supernova, we're toast.


Don't double Jokic. Make him beat you 1 on 1 and limit his assists totals (similar to how teams are playing Houston with Harden). Also, work through LMA ball and make Jokic work every possession on defense to tire his fat ass out. Slow down the game to prevent Murray and Harris from destroying Mills/Forbes more than most teams destroy Mills and Forbes. Try and hold their starting backcourt to under 40.

It’s all about playing defense.

Great thread! Looking forward to this series! Spurs in 6 will work!
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Beautifully written!! The thread starter should be working for a sports channel.

I think our guys can make a series out of this if they can slow down the pace of the games. I also feel that we should single cover Jokic mostly. He is so good of and a willing passer that doubling him helps jump start a lot of their other players offensive game.

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Originally Posted by timvp

I'd be genuinely interested in what coaching mistakes you think were made in that series, tbh. The way I remember it, the Spurs lost because: Kawhi suffered some shriveling and allowed Matt Barnes to shut him down in key moments; Parker, Ginobili and Green were all bad (looking back, Parker hit only 36.3% of his shots and Ginobili and Green were even worse -- tough to win when three key cogs shoot bricks, tbh); Splitter was injured per usual and sucked, Baynes replaced the injured Splitter and sucked even more and Diaw went from big boned to chunky and got destroyed by Blake Griffin. Going player-by-player, only Duncan and Belinelli played at or above their expected level for the Spurs. For the Clippers, Griffin, CP3, Redick, Jordan and Barnes all played well.

I think Doc Rivers is an underrated coach and deserves credit for coaching well that series but I don't remember Pop being "horrible, absolutely horrible," tbh. What am I misremembering? I know there was some second-guessing his sitting of Kawhi for a stretch in Game 7 but other than that, I don't remember anything too blatant. Judging by the poor performances Pop had to work with, it looks miraculous that the series even went seven games -- much less to the buzzer of the seventh game.

All that said, I don't think the Spurs have too much of a notable coaching advantage against the Nuggets. Malone's a good coach and runs smart schemes. I'd give Pop a slight edge due to experience but coaching is overblown in the postseason. IMO, coaches can't really win or lose series in the NBA other than extremely rare circumstances.

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Your forgetting a few things.
-Pop hacking deandre jordan unnecessarily in game 6 when the spurs were on a run and about to blow the game open, killing their own momentum.
And pop ultimately not having the guts to bench Tony Parker who had one of the worst playoff series of any starting point guard in NBA history. If pop just plays Corey Joseph or any other guard for that series the spurs win it going away.

Lowry played awful today!!!

Lmao If Spurs go deeper than Raptors

Feels like the game 1 winner takes the series. Spurs need to pounce on this reeling team. Given their lone star, lack of pedigree, regression to the mean post All-Star break and their organization blatantly tanking down the stretch, deep down they have to be questioning just how good they are right now. If that's not exploited/capitalized on, it's difficult to envision the Spurs winning this series.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Offensive Rebounding Rebuffed

One area where the Nuggets thrive is on the offensive boards. They led the league by grabbing 30.8% of available offensive rebounds. Denver also led the league in second-chance points at 15.5 points per game; their per 100 possessions rate was far and away the best mark in the league in that category.

The Spurs, however, are equipped to deal with this potential problem. They grabbed 74.4% of available defensive rebounds, which was tied for fifth in the league. They were also one of the better teams in the NBA at limiting second-chance points.

Things look even rosier for San Antonio when you factor in that Jakob Poeltl is very likely to start next to LaMarcus Aldridge. When those two were on the court together this season, the Spurs pulled down 76.4% of defensive rebounds -- a mark that would have led the league.

With much of the NBA going small, the Nuggets have made a living out of utilizing big lineups featuring two of Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap and Mason Plumlee. That type of size and strength overwhelms a lot of teams these days. But the Spurs, using the Poeltl and Aldridge combination, can counter from the opening tip and hopefully minimize what is typically one of Denver's areas of dominance.

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I'm actually concerned about this. Reminds me some of the '11 Grizzlies. Jokic and Millsap in particular, are bulky types, capable of physically overpowering Spurs bigs.

Gay is crucial in this series. They won't score enough by leaning heavily on 2 big lineups and Bertans can probably only get by as a 4 the brief moments they either play Craig at it or dust off, Lyles/Hernangomez. Gay has to be able to do the job on the defensive board against Millsap/Plumlee, as well as defend the former on the block.

Just put 50 down at Sportsbook in WV - to win 110 - not a big play but think might win this one

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Originally Posted by D-Robinson 50 fan

Beautifully written!! The thread starter should be working for a sports channel.
...

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Hey. Whatchu talkin' bout. SpursTalk is a sports channel.

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Originally Posted by timvp

I'd be genuinely interested in what coaching mistakes you think were made in that series, tbh. The way I remember it, the Spurs lost because: Kawhi suffered some shriveling and allowed Matt Barnes to shut him down in key moments; Parker, Ginobili and Green were all bad (looking back, Parker hit only 36.3% of his shots and Ginobili and Green were even worse -- tough to win when three key cogs shoot bricks, tbh); Splitter was injured per usual and sucked, Baynes replaced the injured Splitter and sucked even more and Diaw went from big boned to chunky and got destroyed by Blake Griffin. Going player-by-player, only Duncan and Belinelli played at or above their expected level for the Spurs. For the Clippers, Griffin, CP3, Redick, Jordan and Barnes all played well.

I think Doc Rivers is an underrated coach and deserves credit for coaching well that series but I don't remember Pop being "horrible, absolutely horrible," tbh. What am I misremembering? I know there was some second-guessing his sitting of Kawhi for a stretch in Game 7 but other than that, I don't remember anything too blatant. Judging by the poor performances Pop had to work with, it looks miraculous that the series even went seven games -- much less to the buzzer of the seventh game.

All that said, I don't think the Spurs have too much of a notable coaching advantage against the Nuggets. Malone's a good coach and runs smart schemes. I'd give Pop a slight edge due to experience but coaching is overblown in the postseason. IMO, coaches can't really win or lose series in the NBA other than extremely rare circumstances.

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Pop never figuring out how to defend the Clippers high double screen with DJ and Blake. It was free points for them. Pop overplaying TP when he didn't have it. He lucked out with TP's injury in game 2 because that allowed them to win it. With Splitter injured DG was the best Blake defender. I think Pop could've used that matchup more.

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Originally Posted by TD 21

Feels like the game 1 winner takes the series. Spurs need to pounce on this reeling team. Given their lone star, lack of pedigree, regression to the mean post All-Star break and their organization blatantly tanking down the stretch, deep down they have to be questioning just how good they are right now. If that's not exploited/capitalized on, it's difficult to envision the Spurs winning this series.

I'm actually concerned about this. Reminds me some of the '11 Grizzlies. Jokic and Millsap in particular, are bulky types, capable of physically overpowering Spurs bigs.

Gay is crucial in this series. They won't score enough by leaning heavily on 2 big lineups and Bertans can probably only get by as a 4 the brief moments they either play Craig at it or dust off, Lyles/Hernangomez. Gay has to be able to do the job on the defensive board against Millsap/Plumlee, as well as defend the former on the block.

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'11 Grizzlies was easily avoidable if Pop had committed to playing Splitter instead of Turd Towers. It wasn't till Bynum grabbed 30+ rebounds the next season he finally figured that out.

So with Poetl and Aldridge it's less of an issue although Aldridge should be a much better rebounder for his size.

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Originally Posted by Mugen

The terrible road performance combined with numerous choke jobs in the clutch this season are more indicative of how good this team really is IMO.....

Those (road play and clutch play) are a measure of mental toughness, execution, great coaching, etc.....that become significantly more important come playoff time.

The Nuggets frankly have more of a cushion due to their superior talent and athleticism (I get your point about Harris v Forbes but it's not close, not even close especially with GH coming on stronger this last month). They have the leeway to survive some coaching mistakes and youthful mistakes in a series where they have HCA....

Again, to be even more frank, I really don't trust Pop (haven't since 2014) to push the right buttons in-game when the Nuggets have adjusted to his gameplan. There will be very obvious instances (to anybody besides him) where Patty, Bryn, Marco should be subbed out and he leaves him in a few minutes too long. The superstars who can play extended minutes won't come into play because Pop won't give them a chance (we know Dante will see some time when the Spurs are down 3-1) Those minutes turn in to 6-0 runs and those are the difference in playoff games.

The "rookie wall" thing is very much a Pop(Sucker) cop-out IMO. First of all, he's a second-year guy and we've seen many, many rookies buck that narrative...the fact is he'll probably be relegated to somewhere around 30-33 mpg this series by the old man when he should easily be getting 36-40 but those extra minutes will go to who he trusts...Patty.

I've been saying Nuggets in 6 since Wed but remembering back on Pops' last several playoff series outside of the Rockets makes me want to go Nuggs in 5.

Do you know the last time Pop has coached the Spurs to a series win when they didn't have HCA? 2010. It's been almost 10 years and frankly Pop has been VERY mediocre in the playoffs outside of 2014.

To ask an absolutely terrible road team like this year's Spurs to win against literally the best home team all year is a tall order IMO.

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:lmao

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Originally Posted by Mugen

:lmao

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Like clockwork :lol..

Calling it: the Nuggets will win this series now...They let them off and will only grow in confidence from here..

:lmao my dude. Such an easy call with Pop