What To Watch For In Game 5: Spurs @ Nuggets

-In the first four games of this series, San Antonio's bench has struggled mightily. While all of the bench players are at least partially to blame, the player the Spurs most desperately need to have find his rhythm track is Rudy Gay. The Nuggets are blitzing and switching whenever the Spurs go to their bench, which usually results in Gay facing a mismatch against either a plodding bigman or an undersized guard. That's typically the exact outcome that the Spurs want because Gay has been the best player on the team at exploiting mismatches all season long. However, that hasn't been the case this series, as Gay has missed 20 of his last 24 shots from the field dating back to the third quarter of Game 1. If the Spurs are going to win Game 5, they need Gay to come alive and provide the bench with the focal point on offense they desperately need.

-The reliance on Gay is nothing new for the 2018-19 Spurs. In games in which he has scored ten or fewer points, the Spurs were only 16-15 in the regular season. In games he scored more than ten points, the Spurs were 32-19. In this series, that pattern has held true: the Spurs are 2-0 when Gay scores more than ten points, 0-2 when he scores ten or fewer. With how this roster is constructed, Gay's role of busting mismatches is not only vital, it's essentially mandatory because no one else on the team is capable of filling that role.

-Prior to the start of the series, I pointed at San Antonio's three-point shooting as being an area to watch, as the Spurs were the best three-point shooting team percentage-wise in the regular season and the Nuggets boasted the best defense against three-pointers percentage-wise. Thus far, the Nuggets are handily winning that battle of bests. The Spurs are only hitting six threes per game this series (down from 9.9 per game in the regular season) on 35.3% shooting (down from 39.2%).

-How can the Spurs generate more open threes? Gay taking advantage of mismatches would help immensely, particularly since the success of the bench relies so heavily on made three-pointers (the Spurs led the league in bench three-pointers, despite what you hear about Pop not liking threes). LaMarcus Aldridge and DeMar DeRozan being more aggressive when facing single-coverage would also help, as the Nuggets would eventually send double-team help. Aldridge, especially, didn't attack much in Game 4, which allowed the Nuggets to stay home on shooters.

-Another area of interest I pointed to prior to the start of the series was Denver being the best offensive rebounding team in the league and the Spurs being one of the best defensive rebounding teams. The hope was that the Spurs could slow the Nuggets on the offensive boards by playing Jakob Poeltl next to Aldridge more often. The good news so far in the series is that the Spurs have successfully stopped the Nuggets from feasting on offensive rebounds. In fact, Denver's offensive rebounding percentage in the series is way, way down (below league average -- last place among Western Conference teams in the playoffs). Surprisingly, the Spurs are actually pulling down more offensive boards than the Nuggets through four games. That said, things could change quickly if Pop decides to roll with smaller lineups in Game 5 or if Aldridge or Poeltl gets in foul trouble.

-Speaking of Poeltl, he's had a really strong series so far. Just based on the eye-test, he's more assertive and more active than he was during the regular season. He definitely looks like he belongs and doesn't show any signs of being a postseason shrinking violet. Perhaps the best news of all: the offense has been elite with Poeltl on the court. The Spurs are scoring 118.6 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl is on the court, which is by far the best mark on the team (Derrick White is second at 113.9). The worry with pairing Poeltl and Aldridge in 2019 is the lack of spacing on the offensive end would mute the offensive attack, particularly in the playoffs. So far, that hasn't happened. It's actually been the opposite.

-The Spurs really need Poeltl to stay out of foul trouble going forward. It won't be possible to stop Nikola Jokic but Poeltl has done a good job of guarding him out to the three-point line, cutting off driving lanes and contesting shots. The Spurs are also rebounding at a fantastic clip when Poeltl is on the court, which is no accident.

-Honestly, I'm a bit worried about the adjustments Pop has in store for Game 5. In the past, we've seen Pop adjust too much in Game 5s in which the series is tied 2-2 (examples: dropping Danny Green from starter to out of the rotation against Thunder in 2012, inserting Matt Bonner into the starting lineup, putting Manu Ginobili into the starting lineup for the first time all season). I don't think the Spurs need to do anything much different than they have been doing in this series. In fact, it can be successfully argued that the Spurs have outplayed the Nuggets thus far. What the Spurs need most is improved individual play -- not wholesale changes by Pop. The gameplan is working. Don't panic.

-The one natural adjustment I'd like to see is more minutes for the starters. Pop played Aldridge big minutes during the regular season so there's no reason not to play him 40 minutes now. (DeRozan would be averaging near 40 minutes already if he didn't get in foul trouble two minutes into Game 2 and didn't get ejected in Game 4, so I think 40 minutes is a given heading into Game 5 for him). Pop appears to be playing Poeltl as many minutes as possible -- if he hasn't been in foul trouble, he's been in the game. That needs to continue. The other player who needs a boost in minutes is Bryn Forbes. He's been averaging right around 30 minutes but I'd like to see that increased to around 36 minutes, as he's the biggest three-point threat right now and likely the team's best perimeter defender outside of White (scary, I know).

-Should Pop increase White's minutes? White has had an outstanding series. There's no doubt about that. However, I don't know if I could co-sign a plan for him to play much more than 32 or 33 minutes. This is a second-year guard who has suffered overuse injuries on both feet this season and who has said after games that he was exhausted on the court. With as bright as White's future is and how he has already played way more minutes this season than he ever has in his basketball life, do you roll the dice and push his minutes up to 40? Personally, I wouldn't. I'd keep him at 32 to 33 minutes, especially because the Spurs need him to be spry to close out a tight game late in the fourth quarter.

-Patty Mills needs to show up in Game 5. He's oscillated between bad and decent so far in the first round. Most importantly, he needs to space the court on offense by knocking down a couple three-pointers (he has one made three in the first four games) and be an energetic pest on defense (in other words, flop to draw a couple offensive fouls). Marco Belinelli has been right there with Gay in terms of being the most disappointing player on the team. He's reminding us all why he had to be removed from the rotation back in 2014: terrible defense and dumb, momentum-halting shots. A hot shooting night from Belinelli would be appreciated, although I'd settle for him paying attention on defense and smart shot attempts.

-If Pop is fed up with Belinelli like it's 2014 all over again, there's an outside chance he could turn to Lonnie Walker IV to try to get more athleticism on the court. Remember, Pop did something similar with a rookie George Hill back in 2009, when Hill went from out of the rotation to a main cog in the first round against the Mavericks. I think it's more likely that DeRozan and Forbes will simply play extended minutes but if Belinelli remains a liability, I wouldn't be too surprised to see Walker hit the floor. And while he wasn't overly impressive in the G-League (I wouldn't say he was disappointing but nothing he did on that level made it look like he was ready for NBA action) and is probably too green to be more than a live body, he's a player who could at least hang with Denver's athletes.

Stealing from some ST poster in another thread, but I'd like to see Motiejunas in full rotation against Plumlee.

40 min for DDR, 32 for White, and 36 for Forbes leaves 36 total for Mills, Beli, and whatever SF minutes Gay or Bertans play. I'm gonna go ahead and say that's a good thing.

I expect the starters to pull their weight. Need at least 2 of the 3 rotation wings to light it up. If this happens and Gay can make a lay up all’s good.

things really come down to defense. Spurs have a lay up line available to them on the other end. They just need to prevent Denver from getting hot and defend them well. Let's hope Pop adjusts his rotations and throws in some Motiejunas/Walker if the bench doesn't show up

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Originally Posted by Drom John

Stealing from some ST poster in another thread, but I'd like to see Motiejunas in full rotation against Plumlee.

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Yuck. At least when Gasol failed to play defense, he didn't foul in the process. DM is terrible on that end, and if playing in the rotation, likely won't be fed the ball on offense. Just play Poeltl more.

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Originally Posted by Strategic

I expect the starters to pull their weight. Need at least 2 of the 3 rotation wings to light it up. If this happens and Gay can make a lay up all’s good.

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I would settle for him securing the fucking rebounds, and remembering what an outlet pass is. They're stripping him of rebounds, and swiping it when he tries to bring the ball up the court.

Nice article Timvp. :tu

I agree that Pop doesn't need to tweak much. We need Rudy to break out and start playing like he can. The problem with older players is that they can run out of gas late in a season, and it almost appears that Rudy is running on fumes at times.

Your comment about Walker getting some run was interesting. My hope (guess) is that Pop also sees that the team doesn't need to do too much differently, and perhaps using Walker over Belli early in the game would be a worthwhile experiment. Patty and Marco are the team's two worst defenders, and when they're both playing badly the second unit looks horrible. Add Rudy to that mix and it's been a bad combination. Walker might breathe a little life into the second unit, and so I wouldn't be surprised (and I'm actually a bit hopeful) to see that happen.

I also wonder if we'll see the team try to ride LMA to victory in a game. He can overpower these guys, and seeing him get on a roll in the playoffs would be awesome. I could see him have a big game tonight, and if can do that successfully, it should also free up the three point shooters to be a little more free from the outside.

A Spurs victory tonight would give them a great opportunity to win the series, perhaps on their home floor. A Denver victory might propel the confidence of their young guys and this series could maybe end in San Antonio for them as well. I feel this thing ending in six games, one way or another.


It's been a good series, I'm hopeful the good guys can win out from here. Thanks for the write-up!

Watch a great Denver win tbqh

That's all :lol

Question is how long will it hurt? :lmao

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Originally Posted by hater

Watch a great Denver win tbqh

That's all :lol

Question is how long will it hurt? :lmao

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Not long at all. Spurs won this year's championship, beating Toronto in SA. Spurs don't belong tied 2-2 with the 2 seed in this year's stacked West, with the mistakes the FO has made with this abortion of a roster. Any win is gravy and very much undeserved.

Some other wins from this year:

- White has emerged to be yet another draft day steal for the Spurs. Keep developing him and his conditioning for when the Spurs (hopefully) return to contention.
- Murray seems like he has not quit on the team (like certain jerks of the past when injured) and seems ready to play come training camp and come in. He still hongry
- My ninja Bert looks like also a steal from years back. Keep developing him after a strong season this year. Poeltl also looks like a steal in the Kawhi trade
- DeMar had a decent season and will likely play better with another year and training camp in Pop's system
- LMA still playing a high level, let's hope that continues while he's still in silver and black. Very good year for him, thanks for keeping this team in the playoffs
- Pop didn't quit yet. Yay
- Forbes looks like an NBA player, best fit for a small microwave role. That much is known as his ceiling now.
- Mills and Belinelli, while decent, can be replaced but Mills probably won't be knowing PATFO
- Everyone else is replacement level and should not be on next year's roster (QPon, Cunningham, DM)
- Walker isn't a total bust (I guess?) We shall see. Neither + or -

- If Gay finishes the year poorly, not sure he should be on the team coming into next season. There are better, younger options to fill that role, especially with the logjam at PG we will have, we will need a better SF to keep Pop from trotting out midget lineups all next regular season.

timvp - would you take issue with removing Beli from the rotation entirely and giving SF minutes to Bertans instead? Bertans is not only a better shooter, but I think he could definitely defend the guys Beli has been “defending” better than Beli.

Bertans can’t guard Millsap, but I think on smaller guys? His size and ability to compete would fare much better than Beli has.

Beyond that, I would like to see LMA more as a diver. Not sure if it’s something DEN is doing, but he’s screening and popping out a ton. Jokic is not a deft defender in space. If Lma can lure him out and the dive toward the rim more I don’t think Jokic will keep up

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Originally Posted by phxspurfan

Not long at all. Spurs won this year's championship, beating Toronto in SA. Spurs don't belong tied 2-2 with the 2 seed in this year's stacked West, with the mistakes the FO has made with this abortion of a roster. Any win is gravy and very much undeserved.

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Don't disagree but kinda on the "mistakes the FO has made"

We had a mute cancer that hijacked the team for all last season. Most teams would have never made the playoffs after such hijack by their superstar.

I agree about us overachieving and almost calling it a ship after Dat win over the Mute Cancer

But IMO the season won't be a success until mute cancer knee explodes or at least loses out of the playoffs. Hopefully the former and his career is over

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Originally Posted by hater

Don't disagree but kinda on the "mistakes the FO has made"

We had a mute cancer that hijacked the team for all last season. Most teams would have never made the playoffs after such hijack by their superstar.

I agree about us overachieving and almost calling it a ship after Dat win over the Mute Cancer

But IMO the season won't be a success until mute cancer knee explodes or at least loses out of the playoffs. Hopefully the former and his career is over

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Don't worry, the Bucks will destroy that team. The Celtics probably would too, they seem to have turnt that shit way up now that the real season is here

BTW not saying this team didn't do something incredible by playing this competitively and showing out this way in the playoffs so far this year. It is incredible. Just saying no more proof is needed this year, they did us fans well. Pop navigated a poorly constructed roster to a great year.

:lol 6-8 extra minutes a game for a young guy like DWhite isn't a huge issue, he'd be absolutely fine. Take the f'n kid gloves off, it's the playoffs and the Spurs other options are literally trash.

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Originally Posted by timvp

-Should Pop increase White's minutes? White has had an outstanding series. There's no doubt about that. However, I don't know if I could co-sign a plan for him to play much more than 32 or 33 minutes. This is a second-year guard who has suffered overuse injuries on both feet this season and who has said after games that he was exhausted on the court. With as bright as White's future is and how he has already played way more minutes this season than he ever has in his basketball life, do you roll the dice and push his minutes up to 40? Personally, I wouldn't. I'd keep him at 32 to 33 minutes, especially because the Spurs need him to be spry to close out a tight game late in the fourth quarter.

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There's always some excuse why a young, emerging Spurs player supposedly can't or shouldn't play the minutes we all know they'd be playing anywhere else. I'm sick of it. There was no point of making an insane win now trade if, during a season where the bracket broke perfectly, they're not going to put their best foot forward.

You don't know that another 4-7 minutes (over a 2-3 game stretch; at least for now) is going to exacerbate an injury that he had months ago. Overuse based on what? Like damn near every player on this team, he's been handled with kid gloves, so of course he's exhausted when they can't do it to the same extent. That's why he should have been gradually built up down the stretch.

It's funny, I don't hear about the exhaustion from the Nuggets top players, who are also mostly going through this for the first time and have logged way more minutes on the season (and the best one is not even in proper shape). I didn't hear it out of the likes of Simmons, Tatum and Mitchell last season either.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

timvp

- would you take issue with removing Beli from the rotation entirely and giving SF minutes to Bertans instead? Bertans is not only a better shooter, but I think he could definitely defend the guys Beli has been “defending” better than Beli.

Bertans can’t guard Millsap, but I think on smaller guys? His size and ability to compete would fare much better than Beli has.

Beyond that, I would like to see LMA more as a diver. Not sure if it’s something DEN is doing, but he’s screening and popping out a ton. Jokic is not a deft defender in space. If Lma can lure him out and the dive toward the rim more I don’t think Jokic will keep up

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Originally Posted by TD 21

Bertans, as I said going in, can only really play against Craig in this series. If progression to the mean ever kicks in for him (biggest drop in the league in 3-point % pre and post All-Star break), maybe you chance it and have him chase Barton or if they go with Beasley down the stretch. Short of that, it's going to have to be Aldridge, Gay, DeRozan, White and whichever of the 3 defensive liabilities is shooting it straightest and making the best decisions.

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The ONLY chance the Spurs have the rest of this series is if the Nuggets lose their way again. They are fully expected to maintain HCA now that they recaptured it in Game 4. If by some chance (and its a possibility) they come out thinking a victory will just happen..they may drop their guard and lose a close game. It will have to be them forcing shots again and dealing with nervous energy.

The Spurs will also have to make shots. They are a deplorable defensive team and play with little to no passion. The good part is, they don't seem to get emotionally high or low. They just play. They don't raise or change their intensity or game. Its pointless. I'm convinced not one person on that team, including Pop, believes they will win a championship or go very far this year. It's been a complete waste of time. That's what the eye test tells me anyways.

I predicted in Kori's thread that they will get crushed by about 26 or 27 points. What's strange is that I wouldn't be entirely surprised if they win. Win or Lose tonight, I also wouldn't be surprised if they come home and lose game 6.

I agree that nothing beyond fine tuning is needed for game 5. Individual play has killed far more than strategy. And Patty’s effort has been there all along. Missing shots and just physical incapability on defense is killing the team. Mills and Belli hit at a better clip and our guys are up 3-1 whether they took game 2 or 4

This is a great thread
Thanks to the contributors

We rely on Gay to be the scoring punch of the bench but what he gives offensively he takes back on the other end and then some and when he doesn't give you much offensively you're fucked.
I should've stopped my point at: We rely on Gay.

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Originally Posted by GreekSpursfan

We rely on Gay to be the scoring punch of the bench but what he gives offensively he takes back on the other end and then some and when he doesn't give you much offensively you're fucked.
I should've stopped my point at: We rely on Gay.

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I mean,it's to be expected.Gay was a SF turned small ball 4 after injury.He can guard other small ball PFs like Siakam,Galinari,Morris twins etc.But against a dude like Millsap or an actual Center he has problems.Lots of them.

The fact he can't find his touch and points on offense though is hurting the Spurs massively.

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Originally Posted by GusT15

I mean,it's to be expected.Gay was a SF turned small ball 4 after injury.He can guard other small ball PFs like Siakam,Galinari,Morris twins etc.But against a dude like Millsap or an actual Center he has problems.Lots of them.

The fact he can't find his touch and points on offense though is hurting the Spurs massively.

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I agree but the guys you mentioned that he can guard i don't think he can do it in the post season. In the regular season he could because a lot of other parameters come in to play, 82 games, back to back, not much defense played in those games.
Gay has lost athleticism, he's slow as fuck now especially his lateral movement. He's a liability in the post season when the intensity goes up but his stays the same. He's slow on offense as well, thats why the ball gets stripped from him more often

I'm excited to add "Dante seeing minutes tonight" to my callouts when I bump the series preview thread tbh :lol

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Originally Posted by exstatic

Yuck. At least when Gasol failed to play defense, he didn't foul in the process. DM is terrible on that end, and if playing in the rotation, likely won't be fed the ball on offense. Just play Poeltl more.

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Plumlee is a foul machine. If you challenge him, he WILL get whistles. My reason for having D-Mo on the floor with him is to draw those fouls and get him back off the floor. Force fatass Jokic to play more minutes and be gassed in the fourth. The other reason is to save Poeltl's fouls for Jokic. His minutes defending Jokic have been surprisingly effective, and if he gets an extra foul or two defending Plumlee, it's a serious waste.

When D-Mo showed up here, he tried to do too much and picked up a bunch of stupid fouls. But over his career, he hasn't been that foul prone. High, but not outrageous.

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Originally Posted by TD 21

There's always some excuse why a young, emerging Spurs player supposedly can't or shouldn't play the minutes we all know they'd be playing anywhere else. I'm sick of it.

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Eh, this is what we all said about Nephew. We wondered why Pop never played him 40+ minutes. Eventually, we found out why: Nephew can't play big minutes due to degenerative condition.

So, yeah, difficult to blame Pop retrospect for that. You have any other examples of young, emerging players that Pop didn't allow to play big minutes that went on to play big minutes elsewhere that are comparable to Nephew then and White now?

White missed time during two different points of the season for two separate injuries, both of the overuse variety. He returned each time with a minute restriction. He has claimed to be exhausted during playoff games. And on top of that, don't you want him fresh when it's time to close out the game? Fatiguing him would be a great way to guarantee a DeRozan Iso Show down the stretch.

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Originally Posted by TD 21

You don't know that another 4-7 minutes (over a 2-3 game stretch; at least for now) is going to exacerbate an injury that he had months ago.

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You don't know that it won't. Unless you believe a championship is a realistic outcome to this season, is it worth it to put his health in jeopardy?

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Originally Posted by TD 21

Overuse based on what?

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Science.

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Originally Posted by TD 21

Like damn near every player on this team, he's been handled with kid gloves, so of course he's exhausted when they can't do it to the same extent. That's why he should have been gradually built up down the stretch.

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Who else on this team has played too few minutes? Aldridge and DeRozan played too many minutes in the regular season, if anything. Homers may point to Lonnie Walker IV but considering he wasn't doing anything special in the G-League, that'd be a hard sell.

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Originally Posted by DPG21920

timvp - would you take issue with removing Beli from the rotation entirely and giving SF minutes to Bertans instead?

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That's fine as long as there is enough ballhandling on the court. Mills doesn't dribble well enough to be out there by himself without a legit guard next to him. That's partly why Walker might be the easier plug-and-play option since he adds ball-handling and a live body to match Denver's athletes.

DeRozan playing one or two extra minutes to get up to 40 and bumping Forbes up to ~36 is probably the easiest solution, though.

If we’re playing Forges 36 minutes, I weep for our team.

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Originally Posted by timvp

That's fine as long as there is enough ballhandling on the court. Mills doesn't dribble well enough to be out there by himself without a legit guard next to him. That's partly why Walker might be the easier plug-and-play option since he adds ball-handling and a live body to match Denver's athletes.

DeRozan playing one or two extra minutes to get up to 40 and bumping Forbes up to ~36 is probably the easiest solution, though.

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True - I was kind of assuming that Pop was not going to have both White/DeRozan off the court at the same time. They start, White comes out, Derozan plays extended minutes and White comes back in.

The White minutes thing is ridiculous.

He played 35:30 AT DENVER in March? about 4-5 games after his second stretch of missed games.

So he was on such a minutes restriction after coming back that within days he played more minutes in a meaningless regular season game than he has all playoffs.

makes sense.

Good stuff.

I think it comes down to hitting about 12-15 threes. If the Spurs can hit 12-15 threes then they win.

How many travel calls will not be called on Denver?

At halftime it's safe to say they've stayed the course, staggered some minutes to avoid the terrible bench line-up, rebounded well enough, taken care of the ball and all that, but if they can't shoot 3s and have no spacing there's no way to score enough.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Eh, this is what we all said about Nephew. We wondered why Pop never played him 40+ minutes. Eventually, we found out why: Nephew can't play big minutes due to degenerative condition.

So, yeah, difficult to blame Pop retrospect for that. You have any other examples of young, emerging players that Pop didn't allow to play big minutes that went on to play big minutes elsewhere that are comparable to Nephew then and White now?

White missed time during two different points of the season for two separate injuries, both of the overuse variety. He returned each time with a minute restriction. He has claimed to be exhausted during playoff games. And on top of that, don't you want him fresh when it's time to close out the game? Fatiguing him would be a great way to guarantee a DeRozan Iso Show down the stretch.

You don't know that it won't. Unless you believe a championship is a realistic outcome to this season, is it worth it to put his health in jeopardy?

Science.

Who else on this team has played too few minutes? Aldridge and DeRozan played too many minutes in the regular season, if anything. Homers may point to Lonnie Walker IV but considering he wasn't doing anything special in the G-League, that'd be a hard sell.

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They knew years ago he had a degenerative condition? If not, I don't want to hear that and I don't even really care if he did (since there's nothing that could have been done about it anyway). They thought they were a contender from '15-'17 and he was the best and by far youngest core player, yet he was being babied.

Yeah, basically every prominent or semi prominent one not named Duncan.

So can anyone ever play major minutes on this team or is there always going to be an excuse? I don't mean mpg either.

The burden of proof is on you. I'm merely suggesting that there's no definitive proof that he can't and that your god and the infamous medical staff clearly collaborated and arbitrarily settled on a certain range that you conveniently agreed with. Either way, I don't see how his health would be in jeopardy. It's not like he's back way ahead of schedule from a torn Achilles, ACL, MCL, etc.

I meant in general over the years.

Man, if only the Spurs hadn't blown two 19 point leads in game 2, they'd be on their way to being the first team in NBA history to blow a 3-0 series lead!

Really surprised the Spurs have made NO Adjustments since blowing game 2 and are down 20 midway thru the third. I always feel Pondexter and Cunningham play their heart out when given a chance, sure they might not be the most talented but Spurs are getting beat on 50/50 balls. That is all hustle...that's on the players not Popovich

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Originally Posted by hater

Watch a great Denver win tbqh

That's all :lol

Question is how long will it hurt? :lmao

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Called it :tu

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Originally Posted by Truth4sale$

Really surprised the Spurs have made NO Adjustments since blowing game 2 and are down 20 midway thru the third. I always feel Pondexter and Cunningham play their heart out when given a chance, sure they might not be the most talented but Spurs are getting beat on 50/50 balls. That is all hustle...that's on the players not Popovich

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so if you can't motivate your players to play hard in a playoff game it's not the coaches fault?

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Originally Posted by RC_Drunkford

so if you can't motivate your players to play hard in a playoff game it's not the coaches fault?

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You shouldnt have to motivate them.

its the playoffs!