Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

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03-19-2020
Mark Celibate

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by hater

yes

entitled little shits. but to be faur if I was 21 again, not sure what id do tbqh

tough times

I mean we're about to be locked inside for who the f*ck knows how long right as the weather starts to warm up outside so I can't really blame for trying to enjoy it while they can.
03-19-2020
vy65

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by boutons_deux

The Outbreak in New York and the Thunder Under the Waves

New York State has done 22,284 test and found 4,152 (19%) cases.

Washington State has done 17,105 tests and confirmed 1,187 cases (7%).

California has done 9,711 tests and confirmed 924 (10%) cases.

There are 12 deaths in New York, 66 in Washington State and 18 in California.

To put it in the most merciless terms, COVID-19 takes a while to kill many of its victims.

Florida has received results for 1,923 tests and confirmed 390 (20%) cases. 1,109 more are pending.

78% of New Jersey’s tests have come back positive for a total of 742 cases.

One mildly positive development is that testing at scale really does now seem to be underway.

https://cdn.talkingpointsmemo.com/wp...PM-804x575.png

. Florida has received results for 1,923 tests and confirmed 390 (20%) cases. 1,109 more are pending.

Texas has run 2,355 tests and confirmed 143 (6%) cases.

These are the 2nd and 4th largest states in the country.

They’ve done much less testing that the 1st and 3rd largest.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...+%28TPMNews%29

Those numbers are all over the place - between 6 and 78 percent is not very telling. You'd imagine they'll skew higher since the people being tested now are more likely to have it, and those numbers will slide down as testing at scale is further implemented.
03-19-2020
RandomGuy

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by baseline bum

Say X(t) = number of deaths at time t. Those are graphs of log X(t) which are nearly linear, eg log X(t) = at + b for some numbers a,b, so that X(t) = e^(at + b) = e^b e^(at). The US's "a" coefficient is larger than Italy's in that graph from deaths up until 3/12 in those those two graphs since a gives the slope of the graphs and the US's is steeper. Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down.

Got a bit more data now. what is the trend line looking like?
03-19-2020
boutons_deux

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by vy65

Those numbers are all over the place - between 6 and 78 percent is not very telling. You'd imagine they'll skew higher since the people being tested now are more likely to have it, and those numbers will slide down as testing at scale is further implemented.

the article said it was a very rough impression, and tests were against sick people (with various illnesses) so high positives.

a key point is that testing is finally, week late, being done but 100K tests so far is ridiculously low in 340M people. SK was doing 10K per day
03-19-2020
RandomGuy

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by vy65

Those numbers are all over the place - between 6 and 78 percent is not very telling. You'd imagine they'll skew higher since the people being tested now are more likely to have it, and those numbers will slide down as testing at scale is further implemented.

We will start catching more.

The fucked up thing is that if all the shelter in place works... the idiots will say there wasn't anything to worry about. :^/
03-19-2020
baseline bum

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Got a bit more data now. what is the trend line looking like?

Looks like it has gotten worse. The slope of the log of deaths seems to be increasing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Of course the deaths are a function of the policy of 2-3 weeks back and not what we're doing now.
03-19-2020
koriwhat

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blake

So you're gonna refuse to cash your socialist government handout? Simple yes or no, thanks.

But first settle down

Lol socialist check
03-19-2020
vy65

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by baseline bum

Looks like it has gotten worse. The slope of the log of deaths seems to be increasing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Of course the deaths are a function of the policy of 2-3 weeks back and not what we're doing now.

What about Italy and Spain?
03-19-2020
RandomGuy

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Celibate

I mean we're about to be locked inside for who the f*ck knows how long right as the weather starts to warm up outside so I can't really blame for trying to enjoy it while they can.

https://youtu.be/oRdxUFDoQe0

Porn hub goes down... we riot...

separated by 6 feet of course.
03-19-2020
Nathan89

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

China probably already experimented workable treatments in their concentration camps tbh
03-19-2020
baseline bum

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by vy65

What about Italy and Spain?

EDIT: Honestly, too few data points to make a meaningful extrapolation IMO
03-19-2020
boutons_deux

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Vacancies at the top of the Homeland Security Department threaten coronavirus response

DHS is currently led by its second acting secretary in a row, and its third head within a year.

“You are asking the folks on the front lines to implement a policy that

they have not yet been fully informed on or trained on, so of course you are going to have confusion,”

“You have these issues because, again, it seems like it was

implemented too quickly to allow the workforce to be able to properly implement it.”

“65 percent of top jobs in the department are vacant or filled by acting appointees, more than in any other federal agency

That lack of leadership trickles down, with other jobs going unfilled and with inadequate management.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is also part of DHS, by the way, and its number two job is unfilled.

And that is while we’re talking about ways DHS might be involved in coronavirus response.

More than one in four of the top jobs at Health and Human Services and

one in three at the Defense Department are unfilled.

This is not an administration remotely ready for a public health crisis,

even if the guy at the top hadn’t spent nearly two months seemingly determined to make it worse.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1928619
03-19-2020
boutons_deux

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Second GOP senator caught dumping stocking — after receiving coronavirus briefing

Two Republican senators have

admitted in public filings to having sold stock just before the crash of the stock market.

The first was Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). Hours later, The Daily Beast reported interim Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA).

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/busted-second-gop-senator-caught-dumping-stocking-after-receiving-coronavirus-briefing/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaig n=Feed%3A+TheRawStory+%28The+Raw+Story%29

Any more?
03-19-2020
vy65

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by baseline bum

EDIT: Honestly, too few data points to make a meaningful extrapolation IMO

Italy went into lockdown on the 13th, so 6 days ago
03-19-2020
Blake

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by koriwhat

Lol socialist check

Yup. See this is why nobody can discuss anything with you. You're an idiot and you're angry all the time.
03-19-2020
RandomGuy

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan89

China probably already experimented workable treatments in their concentration camps tbh

I wouldn't put it past them. (shudders)
03-19-2020
Nathan89

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nathan89

What's the end game for a full shutdown? Grind the virus to a halt only for it to bloom up later? So periodic full shutdown until a vaccine? No.

This is actually one of the strategies being discussed by MIT now.
03-19-2020
RandomGuy

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by boutons_deux

Vacancies at the top of the Homeland Security Department threaten coronavirus response

DHS is currently led by its second acting secretary in a row, and its third head within a year.

“You are asking the folks on the front lines to implement a policy that

they have not yet been fully informed on or trained on, so of course you are going to have confusion,”

“You have these issues because, again, it seems like it was

implemented too quickly to allow the workforce to be able to properly implement it.”

“65 percent of top jobs in the department are vacant or filled by acting appointees, more than in any other federal agency

That lack of leadership trickles down, with other jobs going unfilled and with inadequate management.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is also part of DHS, by the way, and its number two job is unfilled.

And that is while we’re talking about ways DHS might be involved in coronavirus response.

More than one in four of the top jobs at Health and Human Services and

one in three at the Defense Department are unfilled.

This is not an administration remotely ready for a public health crisis,

even if the guy at the top hadn’t spent nearly two months seemingly determined to make it worse.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/1928619

Eyup.

Firing the pandemic team at the white house is the tip of the shitberg.
03-19-2020
Blake

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Should be required watching for all spring breakers and mall shoppers right now
03-19-2020
baseline bum

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by vy65

Italy went into lockdown on the 13th, so 6 days ago

The graph looks a little convex now so maybe a bit of slowdown vs the exponential growth had it stayed constant. But you're probably looking at a longer time delay before we'll really see how well the lockdown has worked. I don't think many people who died today were infected in the last six days when the lockdown took place based on the long incubation period reported.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy
03-19-2020
Mark Celibate

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blake

And then the media stopped saying Wuhan because it sank in. It's not gonna sink in for Evertrumpers

Spanish Flu, German Measles, West Nile Virus, Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever (Named after a river in Zaire), Marburg Virus (Named after a town in Germany), Lassa Fever (Named after a town in Nigeria), Lyme Disease (Named after a town in Connecticut, US).
Why are the Chinese so sensitive about where it came from...?
03-19-2020
ChumpDumper

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mark Celibate

Spanish Flu

SW Kansas
03-19-2020
baseline bum

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by Blake

Should be required watching for all spring breakers and mall shoppers right now

Sad they said 1000 deaths and four days after the video was published the death toll is 3400 there.
03-19-2020
RandomGuy

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by baseline bum

Looks like it has gotten worse. The slope of the log of deaths seems to be increasing.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Of course the deaths are a function of the policy of 2-3 weeks back and not what we're doing now.

Eyup.

I shudder to think what this is going to do to the UK with Boris Whifflefarts Johnson literally doing nothing.
03-19-2020
Mark Celibate

Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

SW Kansas

Not that it changes the point, but many assumed it came from the Iberian Peninsula although it was later debunked

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