Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

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Originally Posted by FkLA

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a fuckload considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

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We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

ma niga Bum is onto something

they said 100,000 dead. they did not say when and they did not say that was the end of it

I already called for a wave #2 which might be more brutal than the first

even if that doesnt happen. how are we going to restart normal life if the moment we ho back out the cases jump again

this will be a cat and mouse game until some kind of immunity is achieved in hich could easily be 6 months to abyear from now

so Bums #s are actually conservative

whatever # the US government is fooating it will be at least 10X that

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Originally Posted by Thread

All 3, + Pence were evasive & just about equally so. The reporters were aghast at the reality of the information they were hearing.

[Even with mitigation] that is the number. It's graveling, sobering, frightening. Difficult to hear, even more difficult to accept. Almost a living nightmare.

ADDENDUM:::We are used to(as American)to hear such cataclysmic news with a built in out that is lit in sunshine. "But, if you do this---that won't happen." That's how we've lived all of our lives.

This wasn't that. It may be. They may be playing possum, but, they ain't giving it away like we're also used to. "Ah, he's just fucking around. It'll be okay."

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100 to 200 thousand dead americans with trump as president

without trump = 10k deaths TOPS

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Nah my issue is usually you take things out of context. Like when you say the imperial study was revised when it wasn't. You make improper inferences from the things experts say and then post them here. But honestly, if you think me saying the warm weather theory was bunk means that you should only follow the imperial model then I can see why you misinterpret other things too.

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Like what? How is me "directly quoting" what the experts say "taking things out of context?"

Expert: Our studies show that the amount of mild/asymptomatic cases have been vastly undercounted, and we estimate the CFR to be around .66 (some other experts have given a range from .125-.66.

Me: Well, experts feel that the CFR is probably less than 1. If we do the math, this makes the Imperial projection of 60million/3million dead implausible.

"Taking it out of context, bro."

Oh, I've already admitted to you in that discussion that "revised" was a bad choice of words. I should've articulated it as, "Imperial revised the projection based on changing circumstances." My issue with Lord Neil is he doesn't elaborate what new data points he's working with that would change those projections. From his own paper in the Lancet, the revised .66 CFR should give revision to the initial 2.4 million dead projection. That was working off the Wuhan CFR (meaning, yes, it did not consider overrun health care services as increasing the CFR).

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The team’s analysis presents estimates of the CFR for three bands of symptom severity. In Hubei province in China, only people with relatively severe symptoms are being prioritised for testing. Their central estimate of CFR for these cases is 18%, but with high uncertainty.

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Dr Ilaria Dorigatti, co-author of the report, said: “The estimates published in today’s report rely on limited data and the next few weeks will provide valuable information on the outcome of current infections, which will allow us to refine our estimates and fill our knowledge gaps on the severity of this new virus.”

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

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We're currently at 600ish a day, but we're still not at the peak. Assuming NYC has hit a turning point, the deaths will still rise for another week. So we'll hit 1k at least, but probably higher. Then you have other cities like New Orleans where the death rate is going to go up very soon. Chicago and Detroit too. So yeah, a daily average of 2k seems pretty inevitable by the end of April and it will probably be higher because places will see their health care system overrun. People think its already bad but you can clearly see the worst is yet to come.

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Originally Posted by Spurs Homer

100 to 200 thousand dead americans with trump as president

without trump = 10k deaths TOPS

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bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

We're currently at 600ish a day, but we're still not at the peak. Assuming NYC has hit a turning point, the deaths will still rise for another week. So we'll hit 1k at least, but probably higher. Then you have other cities like New Orleans where the death rate is going to go up very soon. Chicago and Detroit too. So yeah, a daily average of 2k seems pretty inevitable by the end of April and it will probably be higher because places will see their health care system overrun. People think its already bad but you can clearly see the worst is yet to come.

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Some models suow US peak at 3,500 deaths a day for 12 days

hopefully that does not happen

as I said before that would be a Sept 11 every day for weeks

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Originally Posted by hater

bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?

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probably would have taken action sooner (social distancing measures, etc) and not tried to downplay it as "just a flu that would go away like a miracle" until mid march

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

We're currently at 600ish a day, but we're still not at the peak. Assuming NYC has hit a turning point, the deaths will still rise for another week. So we'll hit 1k at least, but probably higher. Then you have other cities like New Orleans where the death rate is going to go up very soon. Chicago and Detroit too. So yeah, a daily average of 2k seems pretty inevitable by the end of April and it will probably be higher because places will see their health care system overrun. People think its already bad but you can clearly see the worst is yet to come.

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We're already over 700 just today. :depressed

Cases and deaths increasing everywhere

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

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Originally Posted by hater

bullshit

where would Shitler pull the ventilators from? her pussy?

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any fucking lab monkey would have kept the pandemic team together
and kept personnel/experts in china

then

in DECEMBER

the lab monkey would have closed washington state- allowed the experts to take over
and

STEP ASIDE and let the experts quarantine washington and maybe new york

by JANUARY 10th-15th - and no later


we would be watching nba action right now

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Originally Posted by spurraider21

probably would have taken action sooner (social distancing measures, etc) and not tried to downplay it as "just a flu that would go away like a miracle" until mid march

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you are talking about the same person that blamed Benghazi to a youtube video and got our ambassador killed?

NYC would be burning down right now tbqh

thank God Trump won tbqh

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Originally Posted by hater

you are talking about the same person that blamed Benghazi to a youtube video and got our ambassador killed?

NYC would be burning down right now tbqh

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cmon bro

thought you were better than that

btw- trying to figure out why you call boris “porton”

cant figure it out?

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

So now I also told you population density didn't matter? I literally said the opposite.

Florida is looking pretty bad to be honest. California isn't warm weather. Australia I honestly have no idea because I have no idea what they're more functional government is doing to prevent the spread. Haven't kept up with them. Mexico is looking pretty bad though, and they have warm weather too. Spain isn't exactly cold and they're not doing well. And of course, Louisiana.

But anyway, its obvious to me that I've hurt your feelings somewhere along the way. I'm sorry for that, MP. Just don't take my words out of context and we'll be fine.

Also, you want to know what slows the spread down? Social distancing and government mandated actions of the like. Thats why the curve bends. Not because of some warm air.

Here's a hint, if you can't go back and find a place where I said something you think i said, I didn't say. I don't need to imply things, I'm pretty direct in what I mean. If you don't understand, ask me to clarify. But don't ascribe your bullshit to me, thanks.

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"Warm" in this case is about 60 degrees. From the study which you obviously haven't read:

https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/...to-Thrive.html

Aside from Northern California, California is pretty much Spring and Summer all year around with constant sunshine. Florida projects to be under hospital capacity over the peak:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

And yes, that projection can quickly shift with a couple of inflection points, but Florida didn't spike anywhere near Michigan levels, despite having a larger population. Louisiana had this thing called Mardi Gras. I take it you think I believe that warm weather will just kill the virus. No. And even warm weather regions can have things working against them, like population density, health of the population, health care efficacy etc, but if "bad" means New York, I don't see Florida, Texas, California being anywhere near that bad.

Why do you think Mexico is looking bad? (in any event, it's hard to get reliable data from places like Mexico, India, and such, which is why I reference Australia). And Australia was crowding Bondi Beach like two weeks ago.

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Originally Posted by FkLA

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a fuckload considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

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Damn my dude! Arent you watching the news? What state you hiding out in fkla?

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Originally Posted by DarrinS

https://covid19.healthdata.org

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need to stop smoking asap d

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Originally Posted by Spurs Homer

cmon bro

thought you were better than that

btw- trying to figure out why you call boris “porton”

cant figure it out?

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She swung and missed w Benghazi. She would have gotten us all killed

facts

Porton Downs is where they have a lab where they had Novichok which is the poison that was allegedly used by Russia to poison Skrippal and daughter

BTW where are they???

I think the poster by name of Chris called Bojo Porton Johnson :lmao

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Originally Posted by MannyIsGod

Uh, we're going to have 100k dead more than likely by the end of April. So yeah, not hitting that mark by the end of the year would be an amazing miracle.

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I recall reading that Italy would reach those numbers by the end of June, but that's extremely unlikely considering we haven't seen an increase in new cases and deaths the last 5-8 days. It's been hovering around 600-900 deaths with cases in Italy dropping in the last couple of days. I can't think of any other city with a similar density as NY that's experiencing a massive outbreak and even if two or three states start to break out out similar to NYC and NJ..It won't be enough to pass 100k death by end of April. That's sounds like a worst case scenario.

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Originally Posted by hater

Some models suow US peak at 3,500 deaths a day for 12 days

hopefully that does not happen

as I said before that would be a Sept 11 every day for weeks

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Nigg, you calling that or what? :lol

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

We're already over 700 just today. :depressed

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Yeah, exponential growth is a bitch. The doubling time for deaths right now is less than 3 days. I'm assuming this flattens out within a couple of weeks, but even if you assume a conservative 4 doublings in 2 weeks that puts at over 5k a day! Lets hope it bends before then because JFC thats horrendous.

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Originally Posted by hater

She swung and missed w Benghazi. She would have gotten us all killed

facts

Porton Downs is where they have a lab where they had Novichok which is the poison that was allegedly used by Russia to poison Skrippal and daughter

BTW where are they???

I think the poster by name of Chris called Bojo Porton Johnson :lmao

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lol


nah

years and years of benghazi hearings and STILL could NOT nail her on shit

so either she was semi-clean

or

repukes are really stupid

neither of which makes her worse than this idiot traitor you defend

- but i hope you are starting to see the light

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

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Yeah, I guess not. That figure seems really scary on it's own. Then you realize the flu kills 24,000-62,000 Americans per year. The regular flu would seem a lot scarier to most of us too if CNN covered it non-stop and had a death count ticker.

I'm not trying to downplay COVID or compare the common flu to a novel virus, obviously. Just saying that the amount/type of coverage makes it seem a lot scarier than what it already is.

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Originally Posted by apalisoc_9

I recall reading that Italy would reach those numbers by the end of June, but that's extremely unlikely considering we haven't seen an increase in new cases and deaths the last 5-8 days. It's been hovering around 600-900 deaths with cases in Italy dropping in the last couple of days. I can't think of any other city with a similar density as NY that's experiencing a massive outbreak and even if two or three states start to break out out similar to NYC and NJ..It won't be enough to pass 100k death by end of April. That's sounds like a worst case scenario.

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NYC deaths haven't peaked yet. We're at least a week away from that and that's if the current level of cases doesn't rise much more. If the system collapses, the death rate will go up even more as well.

None of this is worst case scenario. This is with our current distancing, but even with the current situation the worst case is that the healthcare system just collapses. You have a lot of doctors and nurses at elevated risk and once they start going down then how do you even put people on ventilators without the people capable of doing it? These people are already working insane hours under insane work loads. Its already bad, but the room for it to get much much much worse is there.

Honestly, its upsetting to me when I see the videos of the heatlhcare workers online and that the entire nation isn't mad as hell about this. You guys up in Canada are handling it way better, but down here everyone should be mad AF because we've completely failed the healthcare workers.

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Originally Posted by FkLA

Yeah, I guess not. That figure seems really scary on it's own. Then you realize the flu kills 24,000-62,000 Americans per year. The regular flu would seem a lot scarier to most of us too if CNN covered it non-stop and had a death count ticker.

I'm not trying to downplay COVID or compare the common flu to a novel virus, obviously. Just saying that the amount/type of coverage makes it seem a lot scarier than what it already is.

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I mean, if it kills that many with us undertaking all these measures then imagine if we just went about our business like we do with the flu? If anything people should be more worried about the flu each year. At least enough to get a fucking vaccine. You can usually get them for free at a lot of places.