Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

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Originally Posted by Chris

At the time of the post it wasn't the crisis it has become now.Still waiting on the hoax quote. Just look for it tomorrow or something I guess :lol

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thanks for admitting you were wrong. :tu

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Originally Posted by Nathan89

"This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps like Italy and in countries that have not had closures like Taiwan or Singapore. In such and such countries there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter moderation until during the eighth week it disappears."

"This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response. The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline," he said, adding that his observations are based entirely on past data without attempting to guess what will happen in the future.

"It's clear to us how the epidemic is starting and what is causing the increase. What is causing the moderation is unclear. Therefore, I propose that we end the closures immediately after the current week. We will start increasing the workforce from 15 percent to fifty percent and in two weeks we will reach 100 percent."

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Terrible fuckin' "analysis."

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Prof. Ben-Israel is the chairman of the Israeli Space Agency and the National Council for Research and Development, the head of the Security Studies program at Tel Aviv University, and a former MK for the Kadima party. He holds a PhD in Philosophy and a BSc in Physics and Mathematics from Tel Aviv University.

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So, not an epidemiologist. But I won't appeal to authority here. Let's look at the problems with his argument.

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Prof. Ben-Israel explained his position, pointing out that when measuring the rate of additional patients to existing patients, the trend can be clearly identified and adjusted in all countries. If, at the beginning of the epidemic, the rate of hospitalization was increasing at a rapid rate every day, this reality has since changed radically.

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Yes, this is how bell curves work. Most events in nature follow some kind of bell curve and don't exponentially increase forever. Everyone already knows this, so he's saying nothing new. The entire point of our social distancing and stay-at-home measures is to reduce the bell's peak.

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"This is how it is all over the world. Both in countries where they have taken closure steps like Italy and in countries that have not had closures like Taiwan or Singapore. In such and such countries there is an increase until the fourth to sixth week, and immediately thereafter moderation until during the eighth week it disappears."

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HUGE handwave here. These examples are not analogous, even if the overall trends were similar in acceleration and decline. He's basically implying that the outcome would be the same everywhere regardless of the steps taken to reduce spread. That's not the case, as Italy's had a much more severe outcome than those countries. And those countries had the luxury of not having to implement a total lockdown because they tested, traced, and quarantined early.

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"This is happening both in countries that have closed down like us and in those that have not closed until today like Sweden, every country no matter its response. The decline and rise occur according to the same timeline," he said, adding that his observations are based entirely on past data without attempting to guess what will happen in the future.

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Same handwave as above. "Eh, Sweden and the US are basically the same, even though one country had locked down and the other hasn't. This proves lockdowns are correlational at best. Open up the country!" No, it doesn't.

California has five times the population density as Sweden, 4 times as many people, more frequent international travel, had their first confirmed cases like a month and a week earlier, and yet their deaths per 1 million is 16 vs. Sweden's 91. Sweden's approach has been a case study in what not to do in a pandemic. Their Nordic neighbors are seeing fewer deaths, and other countries that are trying the herd immunity approach are getting hammered.

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However, Prof. Ben-Israel added that he "recommends that we take all the hygienic steps like wearing masks and keeping our distance from person to person and banning crowds because it does not cost the economy.

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Lol. This is basically what we're doing already. Reason we've closed down bars, restaurants, clubs, theaters, churches, beaches, etc is because those places draw crowds. An office space with 200 workers in close proximity is a "crowd."

100 percent workforce in 2 weeks :lol.

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

Terrible fuckin' "analysis."

100 percent workforce in 2 weeks :lol.

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Not to mention that China (whom i would agree still serves up misleading numbers), Singapore, etc, had recurrence after they thought it was under control. Also, the disparity in testing coverage and how that changed the outlook in different countries is also MIA from this 'study'.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Not to mention that China (whom i would agree still serves up misleading numbers), Singapore, etc, had recurrence after they thought it was under control. Also, the disparity in testing coverage and how that changed the outlook in different countries is also MIA from this 'study'.

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Libertarian twitter has lost their minds. 100 percent workforce in two weeks. I find it quite intellectually dishonest when they label this virus an "old people problem," and if we just isolate those most at risk and let the "young people" get back to work, we'll save the economy!

65 percent of people ages 55-64 are still in the workforce.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civil...ation-rate.htm

Shit, almost 30 percent of people ages 65-74 are still working. And 80 percent of 45-54 year olds work. All at risk groups, especially considering the preexisting conditions prevalent in these age groups. Those groups still make up a decent chunk of food service employees, over 2 million https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11b.htm. Yeah, I'm sure they'll just be itching to get back to work.

Trash gives the employers cover,

they order people back to work,

employees become diseased, injured for life, or killed, will there be any accountability?

What about employees who refuse to work? will they be fired? evicted? homeless?

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

Libertarian twitter has lost their minds. 100 percent workforce in two weeks. I find it quite intellectually dishonest when they label this virus an "old people problem," and if we just isolate those most at risk and let the "young people" get back to work, we'll save the economy!

65 percent of people ages 55-64 are still in the workforce.

https://www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civil...ation-rate.htm

Shit, almost 30 percent of people ages 65-74 are still working. And 80 percent of 45-54 year olds work. All at risk groups, especially considering the preexisting conditions prevalent in these age groups. Those groups still make up a decent chunk of food service employees, over 2 million https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11b.htm. Yeah, I'm sure they'll just be itching to get back to work.

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Even if we argue we don't give a shit about old people dying, the contagion rate of this thing is brutal. This is what seemingly still escapes some people. And the only reasonable way to gauge is with actual testing.

Both of these are plausible scenarios (due to the lack of solid testing):
- 60% of the US population already has/had the virus (~200 million). That leaves ~150 million as potential new cases. 1% of those fall ill within the same week and need hospitalization (1.5 million), 5% of those need concurrent ICU visits/ventilators (75,000).
- 10% of the US population already has/had the virus (~35 million). That leaves ~315 million as potential new cases. 1% of those fall ill within the same week and need hospitalization (3 million), 5% of those need concurrent ICU visits/ventilators (150,000).

I think I'm being extremely conservative with the percentages, but feel free to correct me. In addition, hospital capacity varies from city to city and state to state.

But planning for one or the other is very different. In the first case, our system would be pretty much at the limit, but perhaps with some juggling we can make it. The second case is collapse everywhere. That's roughly 3 times our capacity.

Without testing you're flying blind, and it's really irresponsible to make such decisions without the actual data.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I think I'm being extremely conservative with the percentages

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The 2009 H1N1 FLU pandemic continued into 2010

60M infected

12500 dead

C19 CORONAVIRUS (is not a flu) is much MORE transmissible and much MORE fatal,

while survivors of advanced infections have been damaged permanently in their lungs and heart, and maybe the brain, resulting in permanent disability.

One young guy who came off several days in a coma on a ventilator says he had to put a stool in his shower because he got exhausted from standing that long. His lungs are permanently damaged.

“We Are Constantly Warned Not to Speak Negatively”: Hospitals Crack Down on COVID-19 Complaints

Health care workers on the front lines are desperate for resources, but those who speak out are being muzzled.

“The reason they fired me was to conceal my voice,” says one Mississippi doctor.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020..._term=VYF_Hive

For-profit hospitals and/or taxpayer/county hospitals?

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

Terrible fuckin' "analysis."



So, not an epidemiologist. But I won't appeal to authority here. Let's look at the problems with his argument.
Yes, this is how bell curves work. Most events in nature follow some kind of bell curve and don't exponentially increase forever. Everyone already knows this, so he's saying nothing new. The entire point of our social distancing and stay-at-home measures is to reduce the bell's peak.



HUGE handwave here. These examples are not analogous, even if the overall trends were similar in acceleration and decline. He's basically implying that the outcome would be the same everywhere regardless of the steps taken to reduce spread. That's not the case, as Italy's had a much more severe outcome than those countries. And those countries had the luxury of not having to implement a total lockdown because they tested, traced, and quarantined early.



Same handwave as above. "Eh, Sweden and the US are basically the same, even though one country had locked down and the other hasn't. This proves lockdowns are correlational at best. Open up the country!" No, it doesn't.

California has five times the population density as Sweden, 4 times as many people, more frequent international travel, had their first confirmed cases like a month and a week earlier, and yet their deaths per 1 million is 16 vs. Sweden's 91. Sweden's approach has been a case study in what not to do in a pandemic. Their Nordic neighbors are seeing fewer deaths, and other countries that are trying the herd immunity approach are getting hammered.



Lol. This is basically what we're doing already. Reason we've closed down bars, restaurants, clubs, theaters, churches, beaches, etc is because those places draw crowds. An office space with 200 workers in close proximity is a "crowd."

100 percent workforce in 2 weeks :lol.

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Well done. That is officially a pwn. Nathan89 glommed on to something that fit his confirmation bias, and did not apply critical thinking skills to what he read.

That is what critical thinking looks like.

Nathan, the stuff you post here routinely gets shredded like this.

What does that say to you about the things you think are real or valid?

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Even if we argue we don't give a shit about old people dying, the contagion rate of this thing is brutal. This is what seemingly still escapes some people. And the only reasonable way to gauge is with actual testing.

Both of these are plausible scenarios (due to the lack of solid testing):
- 60% of the US population already has/had the virus (~200 million). That leaves ~150 million as potential new cases. 1% of those fall ill within the same week and need hospitalization (1.5 million), 5% of those need concurrent ICU visits/ventilators (75,000).
- 10% of the US population already has/had the virus (~35 million). That leaves ~315 million as potential new cases. 1% of those fall ill within the same week and need hospitalization (3 million), 5% of those need concurrent ICU visits/ventilators (150,000).

I think I'm being extremely conservative with the percentages, but feel free to correct me. In addition, hospital capacity varies from city to city and state to state.

But planning for one or the other is very different. In the first case, our system would be pretty much at the limit, but perhaps with some juggling we can make it. The second case is collapse everywhere. That's roughly 3 times our capacity.

Without testing you're flying blind, and it's really irresponsible to make such decisions without the actual data.

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Again, we can get a rough estimation as to the penetration so far by backtracking infections from known deaths which are a more complete data set.

Death toll of a total of 21,000 implies about 3.1M people have had the disease, as of about two weeks ago, as it takes about two weeks to kill you. (based on the best available evidence where total populations of people have been tested-cruise ships etc). R-naught of 1.3 means that about 4M have it right now, a large percentage of which are asymptomatic. Very probably more, because of death undercounting, which is probably substantial at this point.

Each thousand people dead implies an additional 151,515 people have caught the disease, regardless of the number of confirmed tests.

By the time we reach 100,000 fatalities that would imply that only 15M people have had this. That is only 5% of the population.

:(

sure they can have a everything open in 2 weeks but the ERs will again get flooded and bodies will pile up

the cat is out of the bag. they would have to institute a federal body removal service similar to garbage pickups that would pick up bodies from curbs on a weekly basis.

our healthcare system is 3rd world. need to face that fact and donwhat 3rd world countries do and shut down
for much longer than 1st world countries

its like in NBA when you have a shitty team. you cannot compete like the bigs boys and have to tank to get better players. same thing here

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Well done. That is officially a pwn. Nathan89 glommed on to something that fit his confirmation bias, and did not apply critical thinking skills to what he read.

That is what critical thinking looks like.

Nathan, the stuff you post here routinely gets shredded like this.

What does that say to you about the things you think are real or valid?

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Nathan, ducks, etc are fucking stupid, ignorant, indoctrinated/brainwashed cultists, just like religionists

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...statements.png

FBI DISCOVERS PROMISED STOCKPILE OF 39 MILLION MEDICAL MASKS WAS A SCAM
https://www.newsweek.com/fbi-discove...s-scam-1497489


Not too surprised. My scamdar pinged that one as "too good to be true", and the more you think about it, the less plausible it sounds. "entity with 39 million valuable masks promises to make some rando union somewhere the sole distributor for them, instead of selling them to desperate governments that will almost certainly pay more".

What this Yahoo report and the other media reports totally leave out is Fauchis later response where he says in response to one questioner: “not once did the President not follow my recommendations as soon as I asked him to do so. Fauchi said the President always followed his immediate recommendations and requests. The media, including Yahoo, leaves that out that was asked and discussed in Monday’s Task Force briefing of April 13, 2020. Start telling the truth and maybe the Nation will start reading and listening to the media.
Less

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Originally Posted by Trill Clinton

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3f...statements.png

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if DNC can somehow successfully use this on election season Orangegutan is toast

my prediction is DNC will somehow drop the ball on this soft ball and lose anyway :lmao

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Originally Posted by hater

if DNC can somehow successfully use this on election season Orangegutan is toast

my prediction is DNC will somehow drop the ball on this soft ball and lose anyway :lmao

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I have absolutely no confidence in the DNC, confirmed by DNC/Dem establishment finding Biden as the best they can do.

Hillary proved running against Trash, and there's a LOT more shit to throw at Trash now, rather articulating Big Idea policies that poll to be popular, and with plenty of implementation details like Warren does.

Trash will have by far the largest war chest since the oligarchy he enriched with the tax cut scam, and again with the C19 bailouts, give $Bs to beat the Dems.

no-enthusiasm Biden was badly outraised by Bernie

I think Biden will benefit, like Obama did after war loser dumb fuck dubya, from the ANYBODY but Trash vote, that could be decisive.

Does anybody else find it strange that the guy leading the charge against fighting the pandemic (Dr. Fauci) is supposedly sleeping 4 hours a night? You'd think such a high profile public official like this, who spends all this time warning us and preaching about preventative measures, would prioritize getting quality sleep. Sleep deprivation is known to wreck your immune system

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Originally Posted by Chad.

Does anybody else find it strange that the guy leading the charge against fighting the pandemic (Dr. Fauci) is supposedly sleeping 4 hours a night? You'd think such a high profile public official like this, who spends all this time warning us and preaching about preventative measures, would prioritize getting quality sleep. Sleep deprivation is known to wreck your immune system

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hes been looking like a corpse for the last month tbqh

I called it

a regular flu would take this poor bastard to the ER

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

I was waiting for "muh Sweden." A favorite example of Libertarian twitter everywhere. First of all, his graph showing Sweden's precipitous decline isn't convincing of much anything. Deaths lag, reporting slows down over the weekend, and Sweden just reported their peak in daily cases 4 days ago. It stands to the reason they will be experiencing a few more death peaks over the next month. And why is Sweden an example of anything? Norway and Denmark have about the same population as Sweden, but the death count is 919 vs. 419. Sweden is also a much smaller country with a healthier population. Easier to apply the herd immunity strategy there than it would be here. The Netherlands also went for the herd immunity strategy and has gotten hammered. So did the UK in the early days. Also hammered.

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And Sweden just tied their highest daily death toll.

shitbag Repugs shitting up shithole TX with shitty medical advice from shitbag Trash

Texas sends doses of unproven coronavirus treatment hydroxychloroquine to D-FW hospitals

At least 70 hospitals across Texas have received shipments of hydroxychloroquine from the Department of State Health Services.


https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/04/10/texas-sends-doses-of-unproven-drug-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-coronavirus-to-d-fw-hospitals/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_conten t=Dallas+County+judge+s+fight+to+stop+coronavirus% 2C+Gov++Abbott+to+unveil+strategy+for++restoring+l ivelihoods+%2C+fight+over+mail-in+voting&utm_campaign=Politics_04142020

recent HCQ study was STOPPED due to heart risks

one of the most dumberest of TX Repug shitbags

East Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert slammed by opponent after urging use of nonexistent powder for COVID-19

The Tyler Republican claims mystery powder used in Germany keeps surfaces coronavirus-free for 14 days.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/04/10/east-texas-rep-louie-gohmert-slammed-by-opponent-after-urging-use-of-nonexistent-powder-for-covid-19/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_conten t=Dallas+County+judge+s+fight+to+stop+coronavirus% 2C+Gov++Abbott+to+unveil+strategy+for++restoring+l ivelihoods+%2C+fight+over+mail-in+voting&utm_campaign=Politics_04142020

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

And Sweden just tied their highest daily death toll.

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besides stockholm, sweden is very sparsely populated and abut 50% of its population already work from hom

it does not take too much to understand why they tried their strategy

not to mention they have 1st world healthcare

we have none of those 3 aspects I described above

still I believe Sweden is inadvertently killing off its old an poor

...

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Originally Posted by boutons_deux

The 2009 H1N1 FLU pandemic continued into 2010

60M infected

12500 dead

C19 CORONAVIRUS (is not a flu) is much MORE transmissible and much MORE fatal,

while survivors of advanced infections have been damaged permanently in their lungs and heart, and maybe the brain, resulting in permanent disability.

One young guy who came off several days in a coma on a ventilator says he had to put a stool in his shower because he got exhausted from standing that long. His lungs are permanently damaged.

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And this illustrates another problem.

The 60 million number is a number from an epidemiological model based more on symptoms. It is the rare person that actually gets tested for the flu in general.

We will have to have a very large number of reliable tests ready if we want to reopen things piecemeal. This is going to require big cooperation from a federal government led by a WH that’s best message has always been divisive. States acquiring tests individually without some sort of plan will be a mess. We don’t need competition between states for testing.

Orange guy again is in over his head. Better have your testing and distribution gurus ready. That’s not Kushner or Pence. Hopefully they can find people who actually have the expertise (I know this word, expertise, scares the hell out of the all knowing grandiose orange man) Expertise AND WILLING TO PRAISE him like a naughty spoiled child. Pretend like the president figured it all out if you have to.