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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
Latinos work more frontline jobs, live in smaller spaces with more family members, are more multigenerational. I would guess the average Latino in Texas is fatter than the average white. Yep:
https://i.imgur.com/v2TYezi.png
I'm agnostic on the Vitamin D theory until we test that theory.
:lol fat ass Mexicans
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ChumpDumper
Right? I don't see how that isn't the biggest factor in almost every instance of flattening from big numbers.
I think Darrin desperately wants a magic bullet solution that will enable us to ramp up back to normal ASAP. For him it's herd immunity obviously since in that situation, you don't need to worry about social distancing anymore, wearing masks, etc. The virus is effectively snuffed out. Herd immunity is the quick and dirty fix, while mitigation actually takes collective effort.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
He hem haws around with nothing much but if there's a significant asymptomatic response to COVID from certain demographics, that should be explored, and if they are simply immune that is extremely important. I wouldn't call it magic, if it exists there's a reason and should be investigated.
That's different than being immune. This guy was suggesting some people will never get infected due to a natural immunity. Do I think some might have natural immunity? Sure. Do I think enough have it where the virus will die out at 20 percent prevalence without mitigation? No.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
That's different than being immune. This guy was suggesting some people will never get infected due to a natural immunity. Do I think some might have natural immunity? Sure. Do I think enough have it where the virus will die out at 20 percent prevalence without mitigation? No.
I said that in the very next sentence that you quoted.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
I think Darrin desperately wants a magic bullet solution that will enable us to ramp up back to normal ASAP. For him it's herd immunity obviously since in that situation, you don't need to worry about social distancing anymore, wearing masks, etc. The virus is effectively snuffed out. Herd immunity is the quick and dirty fix, while mitigation actually takes collective effort.
Without a vaccine there is no mitigation, just delaying the inevitable. The ifr isn't going to go away because you waited longer to get it.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Without a vaccine there is no mitigation, just delaying the inevitable. The ifr isn't going to go away because you waited longer to get it.
No, you can lower the herd immunity threshold with mitigation.
Quote:
But on a larger scale, heterogeneity typically lowers the herd immunity threshold. At first the virus infects people who are more susceptible and spreads quickly. But to keep spreading, the virus has to move on to people who are less susceptible. This makes it harder for the virus to spread, so the epidemic grows more slowly than you might have anticipated based on its initial rate of growth.
How do you make yourself or a community less susceptible (in getting infected not in experiencing critical outcomes)? Mitigation. Mask wearing, social distancing, avoid crowded indoor spaces, etc. If the virus can't find you, it can't infect you.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
No, you can lower the herd immunity threshold with mitigation.
How do you make yourself or a community less susceptible (in getting infected not in experiencing critical outcomes)? Mitigation. Mask wearing, social distancing, avoid crowded indoor spaces, etc. If the virus can't find you, it can't infect you.
not with lockdowns
Welp you argued into oblivion again
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tholdren
not with lockdowns
Welp you argued into oblivion again
If the population is responsible and isn't fat, I agree that you can do it without lockdowns. The US population, however, is irresponsible and very, very, very fat.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
No, you can lower the herd immunity threshold with mitigation.
How do you make yourself or a community less susceptible (in getting infected not in experiencing critical outcomes)? Mitigation. Mask wearing, social distancing, avoid crowded indoor spaces, etc. If the virus can't find you, it can't infect you.
Herd immunity means kill everyone who cannot make it through the filter. Is that what you call mitigation? Maybe ask them. Do you think the virus is leaving? To you expect eternal lockdown? How do you get herd immunity without people being infected?
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
If the population is responsible and isn't fat, I agree that you can do it without lockdowns. The US population, however, is irresponsible and very, very, very fat.
So then what you are saying is that many Americans have chosen to live a lifestyle of obesity and therefore the ones who did not live that way should have their lives ruined to allow those people to continue living their lifestyle?
Or that covid is only dangerous to a certain demo?
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Herd immunity means kill everyone who cannot make it through the filter. Is that what you call mitigation? Maybe ask them. Do you think the virus is leaving? To you expect eternal lockdown? How do you get herd immunity without people being infected?
It's about lowering the threshold and the R0 factor. If the virus burns through, say, 20 percent of the pop, but if the remaining 80 percent wearing masks, stay within their social circles, avoid crowded spaces, and social distance, the virus will find fewer and fewer people to infect and die out. Sure, it can be reintroduced by an outsider, but a comprehensive testing and tracing program can nip that in the bud. This happened with SARS-1. You didn't need herd immunity. It just died out because it had trouble finding new hosts due to the mitigation efforts in those countries (SARS-1 is what prompted Asian countries to wear masks all the time outside).
No eternal lockdown. There's much progress being made on a vaccine.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
It's about lowering the threshold and the R0 factor. If the virus burns through, say, 20 percent of the pop, but if the remaining 80 percent wearing masks, stay within their social circles, avoid crowded spaces, and social distance, the virus will find fewer and fewer people to infect and die out. Sure, it can be reintroduced by an outsider, but a comprehensive testing and tracing program can nip that in the bud. This happened with SARS-1. You didn't need herd immunity. It just died out because it had trouble finding new hosts due to the mitigation efforts in those countries (SARS-1 is what prompted Asian countries to wear masks all the time outside).
No eternal lockdown. There's much progress being made on a vaccine.
why did it die out in nordic countries with no masks in all and no lockdown in Sweden
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tholdren
So then what you are saying is that many Americans have chosen to live a lifestyle of obesity and therefore the ones who did not live that way should have their lives ruined to allow those people to continue living their lifestyle?
Or that covid is only dangerous to a certain demo?
What you are saying is you want people to have their lives ruined by people choosing to be irresponsible at the expense of the responsible. We could have your open economy but too many people don't want to wear masks or social distance, so the responsible mask wearing people who observe social distancing have the chance of getting infected by the irresponsible. An open economy can't function with this disorder. Everyone has to be on board.
As for the fat people, like 40 percent of the country is obese. They are your business owners, workers, etc, so if we just shelter them, there won't be much of an "economy" to return to. They'll all be at home and not at work or out consuming.
And yes, while they might be fat, they're your fellow countrymen. You should want to protect them. In your precious Sweden, only 13 percent of the country is obese, and they're responsible, which is why they get to have a somewhat open economy (not everything was allowed or open during their peak). This country is filled with children and deserves to be treated as such.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tholdren
why did it die out in nordic countries with no masks in all and no lockdown in Sweden
Denmark and Norway locked down. Sweden reduced their mobility by 35%, and they have some things locked down. Nordic countries also have more single person households and they are just simply more responsible.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
Denmark and Norway locked down. Sweden reduced their mobility by 35%, and they have some things locked down. Nordic countries also have more single person households and they are just simply more responsible.
Lolololol
No masks.
Sweden did not lock down
You forgot about South Dakota
And you're just rambling.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tholdren
Lolololol
No masks.
Sweden did not lock down
You forgot about South Dakota
And you're just rambling.
https://i.imgur.com/o1dMhGn.png
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
Lolololol font worry about lives ruined or lockdown deaths. You logic be bad
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
tholdren
Lolololol font worry about lives ruined or lockdown deaths. You logic be bad
Stats on the ruined lives in Hawaii? Post them.
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
I read from the Book of Job.
The LORD GOD had a bet with the devil. *Do anything you want to my servant Job, only don't kill him. He will not renounce me.*
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Without a vaccine there is no mitigation, just delaying the inevitable. The ifr isn't going to go away because you waited longer to get it.
Well if all these deaths are inevitable let's open 'er all back up and get it over with!
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Quote:
Originally Posted by
midnightpulp
It's about lowering the threshold and the R0 factor. If the virus burns through, say, 20 percent of the pop, but if the remaining 80 percent wearing masks, stay within their social circles, avoid crowded spaces, and social distance, the virus will find fewer and fewer people to infect and die out. Sure, it can be reintroduced by an outsider, but a comprehensive testing and tracing program can nip that in the bud. This happened with SARS-1. You didn't need herd immunity. It just died out because it had trouble finding new hosts due to the mitigation efforts in those countries (SARS-1 is what prompted Asian countries to wear masks all the time outside).
No eternal lockdown. There's much progress being made on a vaccine.
You also don't crash the hospital system
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
With 10Ms of Americans not wearing masks, not social distancing,
the pandemic will continue indefinitely, not "die out"
Dr Birx' "embers"? G M A F B
===============
A Coronavirus Vaccine Won’t Work if People Don’t Take It
We need to start convincing skeptics now.
half to three-quarters of Americans intend to get the vaccine if one becomes available —
woefully short of what we’ll need to protect our communities.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/o...kepticism.html
... meaning 1/4 to 1/2 of Americans refuse to be vaccinated
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Full Text of US State Department Cables Finally Released, Showing Safety In Chinese Lab
On April 7th, a Trump campaign advisor told the Los Angeles Times "One way we still win this election is by turning it into a referendum on China." Within weeks the Washington Post noted "reports that the Trump administration has sought to pressure U.S. intelligence agencies to search for proof of a link between the Wuhan lab and the covid-19 outbreak." And that same month selected portions of two diplomatic cables from 2018 were leaked to the Washington Post, and published in a controversial "opinion piece."
The Post requested "expedited processing" for the release of the complete text of both cables — a routine request which was nevertheless denied. (Though a virologist at Columbia University shared a rebuttal in memes.) The complete text of the cables has now been released — and the additional information undercuts the story line that the lab — which was located a full nine miles from the market at the center of the outbreak — was anything less than safe. Though the Post's opinion piece had highlighted a clause about "a serious shortage of appropriately trained technicians and investigators needed to safely operate this high-containment laboratory" — the diplomats had actually been concerned instead that the shortage would interfere with the lab's productivity and utilization — and not it's safety.
And there was apparently more information in the cable which was withheld. CNN reports:
The January 2018 cable, obtained by the Washington Post after a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, noted that ties between the WIV and the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston could help alleviate the shortage and that, reportedly, the US-based institution was training technicians to work at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). A second cable about the WIV from April 2018 cited a French official who said that "French experts have provided guidance and biosafety training to the lab, which will continue...."
Back in April a senior policy fellow at the Center for Global Development surmised the misleading excerpts from the cables had come from "an administration official with an obvious axe to grind." And this weekend the Columbia University virologist reacted to what the cable's full text revealed about the high safety standards at the Wuhan Institute of Virology:
"This cable says NOTHING about concerns with the work that was being done at WIV. The supposedly worrisome work was actually presented as a success story in a lab that was coming online more slowly than everyone — including the US authors of the cable — expected or hoped."
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Repugs LIED the USA into Iraq
and
Repugs ARE lying about the pandemic
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Re: Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions
Growing evidence of covid antibodies waning in the blood quickly. More studies showing by 2-3 months they are gone.