Texas Covid actuals. What's "really" happening. Don't believe the numbers.

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

I wrote those in a vain effort to help you understand the graph.

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Fucking chowder head. I even listed what it is according to the CDC and you fucking stomped your feet and cried out nuh uh and went to the trouble
of trying to make an image that supposes to validate your failure.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

Excess deaths are calculated by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/potent...ess_deaths.htm

So that red line is not actual deaths, it's how much their projection was off.

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TheGreatYacht

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

No one is lying. Some states have policies that will only count confirmed covid deaths via a test. Is there perhaps some political reason for this? Maybe. Itll make governors look as if they've done a better job containing the outbreak than they really did. Not red/blue thing either. California seems to be following the same process

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Sick and dying people aren't just data, they end up in hospitals and are cared for by real people. Before this spike those people said they weren't seeing tons of covid cases/deaths. Now that there is a spike those same people are publicly saying they are seeing a spike.

This conspiracy requires them to have been lying or something. It definitely needs more beef. If ya'll can't think of anything you can always fall back on numerology as the cause. It always works as a reason for the conspiracy.

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

Sick and dying people aren't just data, they end up in hospitals and are cared for by real people. Before this spike those people said they weren't seeing tons of covid cases/deaths. Now that there is a spike those same people are publicly saying they are seeing a spike.

This conspiracy requires them to have been lying or something. It definitely needs more beef. If ya'll can't think of anything you can always fall back on numerology as the cause. It always works as a reason for the conspiracy.

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Translation:

"Your data is not as good as my anecdotes".

Explain the spike.

https://i.imgur.com/bMOZpLw.png

"I do believe that many people died without "reaching out" for healthcare."

In March/April when NYC was overwhelmed, it was suggested that the many 1000s of "excess deaths" were people dying at home, esp poor non-whites with no insurance, and then no coroners, themselves overwhelmed, tested the cadavers for C19.

I will say that I mis-assessed the scope of the gray line. It is average excess deaths 2017-2019 for the various time points of 2020.
But that mistake is ultimately inconsequential.

Now ask yourself @midnightgulp why they're referring to excess deaths and not simply actual deaths if they're trying to make a case that the death rate is way up as the result of COVID?

It's pretty lame on its face.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

Fucking chowder head. I even listed what it is according to the CDC and you fucking stomped your feet and cried out nuh uh and went to the trouble
of trying to make an image that supposes to validate your failure.


TheGreatYacht

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Yes you fucking idiot and that difference is represented in the red line. And it's not by how much their projection was off.

Observed deaths: 56000
Expected deaths: 50000

Difference +6000. Which is what the graph shows.

Why is this so fucking difficult for you?

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

All those liberals are dying to make Trump and Republicans look bad. That is his conspiracy theory. ???

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I haven't been calling this like a game thread. I leave that to the rest of you.

I've been saying all along the game isn't over until everyone loses and the game has only just begun.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Explain the spike.

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I'm asking you to explain the spike. It's your conspiracy theory. A boring one since you refuse to give any details about it.

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

I haven't been calling this like a game thread. I leave that to the rest of you.

I've been saying all along the game isn't over until everyone loses and the game has only just begun.

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Translation:

"Your data is not as good as my anecdotes".

Explain the spike, stupid motherfucker.

https://i.imgur.com/bMOZpLw.png

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

I'm asking you to explain the spike. It's your conspiracy theory. A boring one since you refuse to give any details about it.

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We have provided an explanation. Unreported, and unconfirmed COVID cases. No conspiracy required. No one is faking any evidence, they are simply not affirming something they don't know to be true.

Now, provide an alternative explanation that you think is more plausible, stupid motherfucker.

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

I'm asking you to explain the spike. It's your conspiracy theory. A boring one since you refuse to give any details about it.

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They were pneumonia deaths. On the phone, so I dont feel like linking the data. You're free to speculate what caused an unusual spike in pneumonia deaths all you want. Logic says it's covid. Do you have a counter theory as to what caused these extra pneumonia deaths?

It's a totally useless graph designed to trick the mind into thinking stuff.

1. The red line is not actual deaths. Midnight Gulp says it is even after I showed him that it's not. TheGreatYacht (:lol Cult members)

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Excess deaths are calculated by subtracting the expected number of deaths from the observed number of deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/potent...ess_deaths.htm

So that red line is not actual deaths, it's how much their projection was off.

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2. It's showing the US excess deaths (a measurement of CDC error) vs. COVID deaths in Texas. What is a person even to take from that? (jaguar fan dot gif)

3. That all said, the red line sure AF ain't a measure of actual deaths. And if Midnight Gulp and fellow chumpettes bothered to even understand this ultimately useless graph, then they'd know that this number of excess deaths doesn't even give real guidance on actual death counts anyhow.

And let's put this another way. If that red line is somehow "actual deaths", then what you're telling me is half of COVID deaths in Texas is half of the US total? Obviously, a quick check would show that's bull shit.

And let's put this still yet another way. COVID deaths on 3/4/20 were somehow higher than actual deaths! How's that work?

....

You still gonna go with your lame contention that the red line is actual deaths, @Midnightgulp?

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

I will say that I mis-assessed the scope of the gray line. It is average excess deaths 2017-2019 for the various time points of 2020.
But that mistake is ultimately inconsequential.

Now ask yourself @midnightgulp why they're referring to excess deaths and not simply actual deaths if they're trying to make a case that the death rate is way up as the result of COVID?

It's pretty lame on its face.

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You mis-assessed just about everything.

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Originally Posted by midnightpulp

You mis-assessed just about everything.

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You just got bombed out of the water, bro.

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post10194455

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

It's a totally useless graph designed to trick the mind into thinking stuff.

1. The red line is not actual deaths. Midnight Gulp says it is even after I showed him that it's not. TheGreatYacht (:lol Cult members)

2. It's showing the US excess deaths (a measurement of CDC error) vs. COVID deaths in Texas. What is a person even to take from that? (jaguar fan dot gif)

3. That all said, the red line sure AF ain't a measure of actual deaths. And if Midnight Gulp and fellow chumpettes bothered to even understand this ultimately useless graph, then they'd know that this number of excess death doesn't even give real guidance on actual death counts anyhow.

And let's put this another way. If that red line is somehow "actual deaths", then what you're telling me is half of COVID deaths in Texas is half of the US total? Obviously, a quick check would show that's bull shit.

And let's put this still yet another way. COVID deaths on 3/4/20 were somehow higher than actual deaths! How's that work?

....

You still gonna go with your lame contention that the red line is actual deaths, @Midnightgulp?

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"filtered for Texas".

You do know that you can use Excel to filter data columns to get subtotals? "show only data for Texas"

:rollin

you are making snakeboy look like a geenyus.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

3. That all said, the red line sure AF ain't a measure of actual deaths. And if Midnight Gulp and fellow chumpettes bothered to even understand this ultimately useless graph, then they'd know that this number of excess deaths doesn't even give real guidance on actual death counts anyhow.

And let's put this another way. If that red line is somehow "actual deaths", then what you're telling me is half of COVID deaths in Texas is half of the US total? Obviously, a quick check would show that's bull shit.

And let's put this still yet another way. COVID deaths on 3/4/20 were somehow higher than actual deaths! How's that work?

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SMH These Chumpettes. TheGreatYacht

Now watch them somehow hold to their falsehoods and/or level their defensive scorn.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

We have provided an explanation. Unreported, and unconfirmed COVID cases. No conspiracy required. No one is faking any evidence, they are simply not affirming something they don't know to be true.

Now, provide an alternative explanation that you think is more plausible, stupid motherfucker.

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All you have provided is a theory that there are vastly more covid deaths than being reported but you have discovered a piece of data on the internet that blows the whole cover up open.

Now explain the cover up. Conspiracy theories are no good if you don't reveal the cover up.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

It's a totally useless graph designed to trick the mind into thinking stuff.

1. The red line is not actual deaths. Midnight Gulp says it is even after I showed him that it's not. TheGreatYacht (:lol Cult members)



2. It's showing the US excess deaths (a measurement of CDC error) vs. COVID deaths in Texas. What is a person even to take from that? (jaguar fan dot gif)

3. That all said, the red line sure AF ain't a measure of actual deaths. And if Midnight Gulp and fellow chumpettes bothered to even understand this ultimately useless graph, then they'd know that this number of excess deaths doesn't even give real guidance on actual death counts anyhow.

And let's put this another way. If that red line is somehow "actual deaths", then what you're telling me is half of COVID deaths in Texas is half of the US total? Obviously, a quick check would show that's bull shit.

And let's put this still yet another way. COVID deaths on 3/4/20 were somehow higher than actual deaths! How's that work?

....

You still gonna go with your lame contention that the red line is actual deaths, @Midnightgulp?

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Jesus fuckin Christ. And I bet he had a real smug look on his face when he finished writing that too. You're hopeless my man. I never called you deep, but I understand why they do.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

"filtered for Texas".

You do know that you can use Excel to filter data columns to get subtotals? "show only data for Texas"

:rollin

you are making snakeboy look like a geenyus.

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I didn't see that. But why would they need to "filter it for TX"?
Surely a simple access program would list the actual number.
In any event, the red line still isn't actual deaths.

Pretty much. Most people have concluded that arguing with Derptacular is pointless. He is so far down on the Dunning Kruger scale of reasoning ability that it is not unlike yelling at a houseplant.

Thanks for the graph though. It was nice, I did appreciate it.

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Originally Posted by Spurtacular

I will say that I mis-assessed the scope of the gray line. It is average excess deaths 2017-2019 for the various time points of 2020.
But that mistake is ultimately inconsequential.

Now ask yourself @midnightgulp why they're referring to excess deaths and not simply actual deaths if they're trying to make a case that the death rate is way up as the result of COVID?

It's pretty lame on its face.

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You posted the definition from the CDC yourself. The graph doesn't have any line labeled expected deaths, it only shows actual deaths, actual reported covid death, and actual average death of the previous 3 years - looking at these shows there are many more actual deaths over this time than the previous 3 years, and that actual covid deaths doesn't cover that difference- the conclusion is that covid deaths are being underreported.

You could argue that the data is flawed a la tholdren and probably have decent enough of an argument. But your arguments only show you don't even understand the graph, even with the expanded legend midnight added.

This graph shows two things.

1. That the CDC predicted really high death counts for COVID that did not come to fruition.

So much so that they (or whoever made this chart) couched the high number in excess deaths.

2. That they're just making up COVID deaths. 6/4/20 it shows TX COVID deaths at approximately 1700.

There were 33 according to the numbers.

https://www.google.com/search?sxsrf=...4dUDCAg&uact=5

Seriously, who even made this piece of shit graph, midnightpulp?

The original you posted makes it appear to just be some reddit shit and not even from CDC's own website.

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Now, provide an alternative explanation that you think is more plausible, stupid motherfucker.

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Originally Posted by SnakeBoy

All you have provided is a theory that there are vastly more covid deaths than being reported but you have discovered a piece of data on the internet that blows the whole cover up open.

Now explain the cover up. Conspiracy theories are no good if you don't reveal the cover up.

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That isn't an explanation stupid motherfucker.

Rates like that do not vary greatly from averages without an explanation. That guiding principle is the foundation of statistics and a whole lot of finance, economics, and actuarial estimates are based on that.

There was no deviation until this disease started spreading in communities.

Explain the spike, stupid motherfucker.

As disappointing as this lame conspiracy theory is I am pleased to see chumpettes joining together with tholdren in saying don't believe the numbers.

It's good to see some unity on this board.

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Originally Posted by diego

You posted the definition from the CDC yourself. The graph doesn't have any line labeled expected deaths, it only shows actual deaths, actual reported covid death, and actual average death of the previous 3 years - looking at these shows there are many more actual deaths over this time than the previous 3 years, and that actual covid deaths doesn't cover that difference- the conclusion is that covid deaths are being underreported.

You could argue that the data is flawed a la tholdren and probably have decent enough of an argument. But your arguments only show you don't even understand the graph, even with the expanded legend midnight added.

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It says actual deaths nowhere on the original that Midnight Gulp posted from Reddit (apparently).

The actual deaths you're reading is Midnight Gulp falsely editorializing on a secondary image he created.

And yea, you basically came to same conclusion that he came to under that false premise.
And you came to the same conclusion that every non-discerning idiot is supposed to come to without giving it much thought.
The guy who posted this on reddit did a serious troll job and/or false information campaign. :lol TheGreatYacht