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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
The same polls that suggested Hillary had a 98% chance of winning in 2016?
No, not the same polls actually (fivethirtyeight also gave Hillary a 71.8% chance).
Prior to 2016, there wasn't a substantial delta between how educated whites and uneducated whites voted, it was roughly the same percentage Republican and Democrat. Trump changed that, but the polls didn't factor it in. College educated whites are more likely to respond to polls than non-college educated whites, so the 2016 polls overrepresented the group that favored Clinton and underrepresented the group that favored Trump. The pollsters this year are now weighing education when they select a sample, so they have more uneducated white voter representation than the 2016 polls did.
The other difference is that Shillary might have been winning in the polls by a plurality, but she was always below 50% in the key states and didn't consider the possibility that undecided voters would coalesce around Trump which is what happened. For example, at this time in 2016, her polling average in Wisconsin was 47.6% vs. 44.3% for Trump. Biden's polling average is at 49.7% in PA vs. 45.2% for Trump. It's also 49.9% in Michigan and 50.1% in Wisconsin. Not only are the polls this year weighing demographics more accurately than they did in 2016, but Biden is much closer to the magic 50% number than Hillary ever was.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Will Hunting
No, not the same polls actually (fivethirtyeight also gave Hillary a 71.8% chance).
Prior to 2016, there wasn't a substantial delta between how educated whites and uneducated whites voted, it was roughly the same percentage Republican and Democrat. Trump changed that, but the polls didn't factor it in. College educated whites are more likely to respond to polls than non-college educated whites, so the 2016 polls overrepresented the group that favored Clinton and underrepresented the group that favored Trump. The pollsters this year are now weighing education when they select a sample, so they have more uneducated white voter representation than the 2016 polls did.
The other difference is that Shillary might have been winning in the polls by a plurality, but she was always below 50% in the key states and didn't consider the possibility that undecided voters would coalesce around Trump which is what happened. For example, at this time in 2016, her polling average in Wisconsin was 47.6% vs. 44.3% for Trump. Biden's polling average is at 49.7% in PA vs. 45.2% for Trump. It's also 49.9% in Michigan and 50.1% in Wisconsin. Not only are the polls this year weighing demographics more accurately than they did in 2016, but Biden is much closer to the magic 50% number than Hillary ever was.
Aren't you using circular reasoning to say the polls are more accurate? What are you using as a standard other than the polls themselves? I can understand they are being more specific, but how does specificity equate to accuracy?
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Aren't you using circular reasoning to say the polls are more accurate? What are you using as a standard other than the polls themselves? I can understand they are being more specific, but how does specificity equate to accuracy?
They're not just being more "specific". It's not like they're just sampling the same voter set and including a question about education. Their sample now includes a different, more Trump friendly demographic representation weighted by education.
There's no way we're going to know how accurate/inaccurate the polls are until election day, but you asked if these were the "same polls" and they're not. They include a modified demographic set with more uneducated whites and less educated whites than the 2016 polls had.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
DMC's advice to Biden is to pretend he went to an Ivy League school.:tu
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Will Hunting
They're not just being more "specific". It's not like they're just sampling the same voter set and including a question about education. Their sample now includes a different, more Trump friendly demographic representation weighted by education.
There's no way we're going to know how accurate/inaccurate the polls are until election day, but you asked if these were the "same polls" and they're not. They include a modified demographic set with more uneducated whites and less educated whites than the 2016 polls had.
I agree we won't know until after the election.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ChumpDumper
DMC's advice to Biden is to pretend he went to an Ivy League school.:tu
Only a retard would surmise that from my comments, thus your response.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
pgardn
It’s still would have been disastrous
but purposely trying to set people against each other for something as simple as a mask?
that’s one fucked up leader. UNITED STATES
what do you wish to replace the word united with?
I'm not a fan of Trump's handling of the virus. The mask issue makes sense when you look at the science behind it.
But this is America...mask mandates and lockdowns were never going to go over very well here, tbqh. Drive around during the holidays and you find huge house parties with DJ's and all the trimmings during the height of the pandemic :lol people just don't give a sh1t here :lol
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Only a retard would surmise that from my comments, thus your response.
What is your advice then regarding Biden's upbringing and education compared to Trump's?
Spell it out.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ChumpDumper
What is your advice then regarding Biden's upbringing and education compared to Trump's?
Spell it out.
Snuggle up with your false narrative (lie). Masturbate to it.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Snuggle up with your false narrative (lie). Masturbate to it.
DMC folds.
You got caught talking out of your ass again and it infuriates you.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Dirks_Finale
Joe gets triggered easily (C'mon man!) And Trump is king troll. The key for Joe is to prep with the best troll/Trump impersonator they can find.
That’s what I’m kinda worried about. Joe gets triggered really easily.
Trump pretty much had Jeb Bush in tears after he trolled the living crap out of him during the debates. Biden just needs to stay on topic and hammer away at Trump on the issues. Trump will destroy him if Biden try’s to get into a back and forth with him
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
Yeah English isn't your native language.
Jokes on you then. :lol I don’t put as much efforts into posts here on whether they are grammatically correct or not.
And oddly enough, you didn’t seem to have a problem with ducks the other day. :lol DMC taking a pounding as of late.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
florige
That’s what I’m kinda worried about. Joe gets triggered really easily.
Trump pretty much had Jeb Bush in tears after he trolled the living crap out of him during the debates. Biden just needs to stay on topic and hammer away at Trump on the issues. Trump will destroy him if Biden try’s to get into a back and forth with him
There's no way Biden's staff hasn't done one mock debate after another so he's prepared for whatever personal insults or nicknames get thrown his way. He's probably even prepped for a scenario where Trump makes fun of Beau, which is definitely not outside the realm of possibilities.
Trump hasn't had to debate anyone since 2016, and he looked rusty as hell fielding difficult questions in his last town hall. He couldn't even manage an interview with Laura Ingraham where she was trying as hard as she could to lob him softballs. Trump just doesn't know how to run as an incumbent or how to debate as an incumbent.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Will Hunting
There's no way Biden's staff hasn't done one mock debate after another so he's prepared for whatever personal insults or nicknames get thrown his way. He's probably even prepped for a scenario where Trump makes fun of Beau, which is definitely not outside the realm of possibilities.
Trump hasn't had to debate anyone since 2016, and he looked rusty as hell fielding difficult questions in his last town hall. He couldn't even manage an interview with Laura Ingraham where she was trying as hard as she could to lob him softballs. Trump just doesn't know how to run as an incumbent or how to debate as an incumbent.
We’ll see i guess. I was confident that Hillary was going to mop the floor with him and he surprised the crap out of me how well he did against her.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Let him get triggered then. I’d take a visibly angry Biden than the vanilla version.
Did ya’lll not watch his town hall? :lol being angry works best for him.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Reck
Let him get triggered then. I’d take a visibly angry Biden than the vanilla version.
Did ya’lll not watch his town hall? :lol being angry works best for him.
Exactly, I'm fine with a scenario where Trump makes some low blow comment about Beau or his family and Biden gets angry. Uneducated whites love angry, just look at the last candidate they supported.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Filmmaker Michael Moore warned that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden could be running a "worse" campaign in Michigan than 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who lost the state by less than half a percentage point four years ago.
Moore, a Michigan native, pointed to a Detroit Free Press poll released Friday that showed Biden 8 points ahead of President Trump in the state, down from 16 points in June.
"The fact that Trump has narrowed the lead by 50 percent since June should have everybody screaming bloody murder," Moore said. "We don't have a minute to lose on this."
Moore, who has been supporting Democrats in the 2020 elections, said the Biden campaign should work on engaging Black voters in Michigan instead of trying to win over Republicans.
"It's actually worse than Hillary," Moore said. "At least there was a ground game, even though she didn't show up. There were Hillary offices in many towns, there were door-to-door campaigns."
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hater
Filmmaker Michael Moore warned that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden could be running a "worse" campaign in Michigan than 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, who lost the state by less than half a percentage point four years ago.
Moore, a Michigan native, pointed to a Detroit Free Press poll released Friday that showed Biden 8 points ahead of President Trump in the state, down from 16 points in June.
"The fact that Trump has narrowed the lead by 50 percent since June should have everybody screaming bloody murder," Moore said. "We don't have a minute to lose on this."
Moore, who has been supporting Democrats in the 2020 elections, said the Biden campaign should work on engaging Black voters in Michigan instead of trying to win over Republicans.
"It's actually worse than Hillary," Moore said. "At least there was a ground game, even though she didn't show up. There were Hillary offices in many towns, there were door-to-door campaigns."
Biden’s made several trips to Michigan this month alone.
Imagine thinking Hillary had a better campaign. :lol
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
The polls are interesting. I just finished driving 4000+ miles though Colorado and New Mexico over the last two weeks. Political signs are up. The bigger towns (Telluride, Crested Butte, Ouray, Grand Lake, Estes Park, Taos, etc.) seemed to be mostly Biden but the countryside and small towns everywhere I went were solidly Trump. This election may be closer than it seems now.
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
hater
look at how things have gone to shit with him being out of government for just 4 years. maybe he was the glue holding it all together!
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DMC
The same polls that suggested Hillary had a 98% chance of winning in 2016?
The media was treating coinflip races as independent events when they weren't. Why is this so hard for Trump's base to understand?
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Will Hunting
Exactly, I'm fine with a scenario where Trump makes some low blow comment about Beau or his family and Biden gets angry. Uneducated whites love angry, just look at the last candidate they supported.
I'd be shocked if Trump went that low and attacked Biden's dead son. That would be a new low even for Trump lol
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CosmicCowboy
The polls are interesting. I just finished driving 4000+ miles though Colorado and New Mexico over the last two weeks. Political signs are up. The bigger towns (Telluride, Crested Butte, Ouray, Grand Lake, Estes Park, Taos, etc.) seemed to be mostly Biden but the countryside and small towns everywhere I went were solidly Trump. This election may be closer than it seems now.
I see that as a plus right there for Biden, iirc their were little to no signs anywhere for Hillary in 2016. I do think the polls are going to tighten before the election
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Re: Another day, another blooper from dementia Joe
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Reck
Biden’s made several trips to Michigan this month alone.
Imagine thinking Hillary had a better campaign. :lol
Biden is playing safe. His campaign are playing as if they are behind. Hillary took those slim leads in those battleground states for granted and didn't get people there until it was to late
