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Yang is probably still going to be ahead of his time, even 4 years from now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Hunting
there always has to be a first, and he is it. I agree the idea of ubi and healthcare for all will ultimately have to be adopted if America wants to stop the devolution into modern feudalism.
but the ideas are going to have mountains to overcome, not sure if 4 years is enough time.
IMO where the polls are clearly getting it wrong is with 1) rural voters and 2) "undecided" voters. People who say they're undecided voters are lying 95% of the time. The pollsters need to get creative in figuring out how to weigh this - imo one way to do that is prod with more general questions (i.e., if an undecided voter says he's better off now than he was 4 years ago and thinks the Hunter Biden laptop story is a major issue, probably just assume he's voting Republican up and down the ballot).
Voter turnout completed related to the polarizing response by voters to Trump. Biden obviously not more popular than Barack. But it’s extremely rare not to have an opinion of Trump. You either love him or hate him. And that led all these people to vote, for or against him. I voted for Biden only to vote against Trump. Has nothing to do with policy or political issues. I hate the fact that this country has been led by this piece of shit the last four years. I need him to be gone.
Regardless of any good things Trump did, and even his harshest critics can acknowledge there were some good policy things, they’ve all been completely eclipsed by how much of an egomaniacal, megalomaniacal, racist, sexist, overall bigoted jackass he’s been who not only fucked up this covid response but set the stage up for an all out racial civil war with his stupid fucking call to arms tweets and comments stoking the flames of that racial divide. He’s made it ok to be unapologetically and even openly racist. He fucking destroyed simple common decency in this country. And the fact that he still got as many votes as he did is an absolutely scary thing to realize.
"his harshest critics can acknowledge there were some good policy things"
:lol let's see you list of things
Look I’m anti-Trump. And I realize Trump haters don’t want to credit him with anything. And anything he did that could be viewed as even remotely good can be spun in a way to either not give him credit at all or as a self-serving thing that also turned out good. So whatever I list I’m sure will be challenged. And I’m not saying there’s a lot.Quote:
Originally Posted by boutons_deux
But just a few, his criminal justice reform, initiating Space Force, lowering unemployment, pressuring NATO allies to cough up their share of money, and getting Abu Baker al-Baghdadi.
You can spin those things if you want. That’s fine. I’m not in business to defend Trump. So go ahead. And again, all the bad things about Trump overshadows anything good anyway.
Yep, heck, I could see Perez might be spared now if Biden rings, which would be a colossal mistake.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Hunting
The problem isn’t just Perez but he’d be a great start. Democratic leaders don’t understand how state and local elections are won. Raising money and running TV ads is one element but if you want to flip a senate seat in Iowa or North Carolina you need a candidate visiting the rural counties and doing voter townhalls.Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono
Agreed, but Perez' head is the signal that this is serious, and it starts at the top.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Hunting
Looks like Trump is going to beat Obama's popular vote count too :lol
voter fraud at its finest... lol joe had a bigger base than obama at his height? lmao yall are so damn gullible.
No surprises here, you let Americans vote comfortably, and they do vote.
Possibly but I’m more convinced this is Trump driving turnout from those who love him and those who hate him.Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono
Harshest critic here:Quote:
Originally Posted by JamStone
Good trump policy things:
China tariffs.
Space Force.
We need to do something to contain China.
The number of votes he got speaks to the effectiveness of right wing propaganda. Fear is easy and hard to shake.
Indeed.Quote:
Originally Posted by SnakeBoy
May be about the only thing he has ever done more/better than Obama. Ironic.
No doubt. But there's also a lot less excuses to fuck voters over when you have a pandemic going on.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Hunting
The problem with the polls is that you cannot predict what people will do given free choice. If you could, we wouldn't need an election.
So left wing talking points aren't propaganda. Those are just facts. The right though, that's all propaganda and half the voters are stupid.Quote:
Originally Posted by RandomGuy
I no longer trust polling, period. But I think the Trafalgar group's critique of modern day polling is pretty accurate. This is not 1995. No more, or very little landline calls. And you have to keep it short and sweet. The only people talking to you for 20-30 minutes about politics are the extremists from either side, which does not give you the pulse of the common Joe. And if there's a polarizing guy like Trump on the ballot, you have to somehow assure them of anonymity, thanks to cancel culture.Quote:
Originally Posted by DMC
You and me both man. whiffing two elections in a row.. .somethings wrong, and I doubt anyone can fix it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale
Well the population has grown and more eligible and registered voters are on the rolls. Plus a lot of people vote against Trump and not necessarily for Biden.Quote:
Originally Posted by koriwhat
I still want somebody, anybody to point out how polls were incorrect this year, at least on the presidential race? Maybe NC being the outlier?Quote:
Originally Posted by DMC
Polls don't exist to replace the vote. They exist to try to get a sense of where races are going.
Trafalgar group was extremely wrong in their polls this and last time around. As a matter of fact, their junk polls appear to be directly aimed at undermining good polling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale
The congressional district polls were laughably off. They showed the Democrats running competitively in like 10 Texas house races and the went 0-10 with most of them not even close.Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono
One dynamic I don’t think people or pollsters considered - Trump brought out low propensity GOP voters who didn’t turn out in 2018, while having Trump on the ballot allowed never Trump Republicans to take their anger out on Trump but still vote Republican down ballot. It was the worst of both worlds for down ballot Dem candidates.
That's fair, I think Spurminator brought it up before, and like I told him, I didn't particularly track those polls, so I'll take your word for it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Will Hunting
However, so far at least, the POTUS race has been called fairly spot on? I posted what the A/A+ polls map looked like before the count started, I don't see any egregious errors or mistakes?
I think florida was an error. Wisconsin also might have accurately predicted the winner but the polls were still way off. They had Biden up 8-9% and he won by <1%.Quote:
Originally Posted by ElNono