Joe Biden Beats Barack Obama's Popular Vote Record

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Originally Posted by DMC

So left wing talking points aren't propaganda. Those are just facts. The right though, that's all propaganda and half the voters are stupid.

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Left wing talking points are, by definition, also propaganda.

Strawman fail.

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Originally Posted by Will Hunting

The congressional district polls were laughably off. They showed the Democrats running competitively in like 10 Texas house races and the went 0-10 with most of them not even close.

One dynamic I don’t think people or pollsters considered - Trump brought out low propensity GOP voters who didn’t turn out in 2018, while having Trump on the ballot allowed never Trump Republicans to take their anger out on Trump but still vote Republican down ballot. It was the worst of both worlds for down ballot Dem candidates.

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Republicans went blockwalking door to door. Dems didn't. That is the difference.

Dems abdicated the ground game due to the pandemic.

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Originally Posted by Will Hunting

I think florida was an error. Wisconsin also might have accurately predicted the winner but the polls were still way off. They had Biden up 8-9% and he won by <1%.

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Florida I marked Trump because it was within the MoE. I'll take your WI complaint. I have my own about NC (despite it was 0.5 outside the MoE).

If people have expectations that polls are going to accurately predict states within the MoE, then they don't understand polls.

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Originally Posted by RandomGuy

Republicans went blockwalking door to door. Dems didn't. That is the difference.

Dems abdicated the ground game due to the pandemic.

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Yes. The Dems like Rashida Tlaib and Omar who didn’t stop going door to door brought record turnout in their area.

Obama wrote the book on grassroots campaigning and the Dems really need to start following it.

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Originally Posted by JamStone

Voter turnout completed related to the polarizing response by voters to Trump. Biden obviously not more popular than Barack. But it’s extremely rare not to have an opinion of Trump. You either love him or hate him. And that led all these people to vote, for or against him. I voted for Biden only to vote against Trump. Has nothing to do with policy or political issues. I hate the fact that this country has been led by this piece of shit the last four years. I need him to be gone.

Regardless of any good things Trump did, and even his harshest critics can acknowledge there were some good policy things, they’ve all been completely eclipsed by how much of an egomaniacal, megalomaniacal, racist, sexist, overall bigoted jackass he’s been who not only fucked up this covid response but set the stage up for an all out racial civil war with his stupid fucking call to arms tweets and comments stoking the flames of that racial divide. He’s made it ok to be unapologetically and even openly racist. He fucking destroyed simple common decency in this country. And the fact that he still got as many votes as he did is an absolutely scary thing to realize.

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I agree with everything you said. As a former democrat I'm pretty much done voting after this election. I was never down with the republicans but the democrats have also left me. I only voted in this election because I live in a swing state and also because like you said I got sick and tired of the racial division Trump was causing in this country. It forced me to get out and vote for Biden whereas if the republicans ran their typical generic boring candidate then I would have stayed at home.

I'm one of the few people that are not shocked by how many votes Trump got. I guess that has to do with growing up in NC which up until 12 years ago was a hardcore red state. It's the same state that elected a hardcore openly racist senator in Jesse Helms a bunch of times up until he decided to retire in the early '00s. So I grew up with a lot of backwards people and saw a lot of ignorance in person. I think the ignorance of this country is always a culture shock for anybody who has lived most of their lives in a blue state or even a purple state.

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Originally Posted by daslicer

I agree with everything you said. As a former democrat I'm pretty much done voting after this election. I was never down with the republicans but the democrats have also left me. I only voted in this election because I live in a swing state and also because like you said I got sick and tired of the racial division Trump was causing in this country. It forced me to get out and vote for Biden whereas if the republicans ran their typical generic boring candidate then I would have stayed at home.

I'm one of the few people that are not shocked by how many votes Trump got. I guess that has to do with growing up in NC which up until 12 years ago was a hardcore red state. It's the same state that elected a hardcore openly racist senator in Jesse Helms a bunch of times up until he decided to retire in the early '00s. So I grew up with a lot of backwards people and saw a lot of ignorance in person. I think the ignorance of this country is always a culture shock for anybody who has lived most of their lives in a blue state or even a purple state.

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Or overseas. Amen.

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Originally Posted by Will Hunting

The problem isn’t just Perez but he’d be a great start. Democratic leaders don’t understand how state and local elections are won. Raising money and running TV ads is one element but if you want to flip a senate seat in Iowa or North Carolina you need a candidate visiting the rural counties and doing voter townhalls.

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I felt that is what really hurt Cunningham down here in NC outside of his texting adultery scandal. Cunnigham was absent and had no rallies and it ended up costing him a close race.

even trump is gonna surpass Obama's old record... huge turnout this year. love it. generally speaking the more turnout, the better.

This is probably a rare election in the sense that despite record turnout, both sides will have a bad taste in the mouth when it's done. The Dems squeaked a narrow win and will have to contend with McConnell. Trump lost, but it's close enough that the GOP won't be able to get rid of Trumpism in a hurry.

The biggest loser is American democracy, with both sides unhappy with the process for drastically different reasons. This is looking like a shit sandwich no matter who you are

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Originally Posted by Warlord23

This is probably a rare election in the sense that despite record turnout, both sides will have a bad taste in the mouth when it's done. The Dems squeaked a narrow win and will have to contend with McConnell. Trump lost, but it's close enough that the GOP won't be able to get rid of Trumpism in a hurry.

The biggest loser is American democracy, with both sides unhappy with the process for drastically different reasons. This is looking like a shit sandwich no matter who you are

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This country needs a uniter right now, I don't think Joe is that guy, but we'll see.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

This country needs a uniter right now, I don't think Joe is that guy, but we'll see.

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With the state of the economy, virus cases and deaths on the rise, racial division, Trump undermining the electoral process, it's going to be a shitty 2021 for Biden. This isn't like Obama in 2008 ... the economy was in the dumps then but there was a lot of positivity.

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Originally Posted by Warlord23

With the state of the economy, virus cases and deaths on the rise, racial division, Trump undermining the electoral process, it's going to be a shitty 2021 for Biden. This isn't like Obama in 2008 ... the economy was in the dumps then but there was a lot of positivity.

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I can't think the last Dem president that didn't inherit a shitshow, tbh

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Originally Posted by ElNono

I can't think the last Dem president that didn't inherit a shitshow, tbh

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The last Dem president to inherit a great situation I would say is Truman and that goes all the way back to the 40’s.

64k votes with 77k left to count in Philly. Outside of court fuckery Biden is definitely winning Pennsylvania.

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Trafalgar group was extremely wrong in their polls this and last time around. As a matter of fact, their junk polls appear to be directly aimed at undermining good polling.

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They were much closer in the swing states than all the fairy tale polls out there. Consistently had Trump up a point or two or down a point or two. In WI I think they had him down 1 in their final poll and that's pretty much how it turned out.

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Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale

They were much closer in the swing states than all the fairy tale polls out there. Consistently had Trump up a point or two or down a point or two. In WI I think they had him down 1 in their final poll and that's pretty much how it turned out.

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Here's their projected map of the 2020 election based on their polls:

What do you think?

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Originally Posted by ElNono

Here's their projected map of the 2020 election based on their polls:

What do you think?

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It's not like Biden has large margin victories here. :lol

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Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale

It's not like Biden has large margin victories here. :lol

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:lol under that premise we should just don't have polls at all.

Everybody knows which states are not swing states, if we're going to pretend whiffing on almost every contested race is ok because muh margins, then what's the point?

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Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale

It's not like Biden has large margin victories here. :lol

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Bargaining comes after anger and denial, you seem to moving quickly through Kubler-Ross's stages of grief. :tu

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Originally Posted by ElNono

:lol under that premise we should just don't have polls at all.

Everybody knows which states are not swing states, if we're going to pretend whiffing on almost every contested race is ok because muh margins, then what's the point?

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Cant even believe you are arguing this :lol

RCP AVERAGE had Biden +6.7. It went to Biden less than a point. Trafalgar had Biden +1 in a very recent poll. Around the same time, an ABC poll had Biden +17 in WI :lol yeah, coming close to the actual number counts for something, elnono.

2016 they called it for Trump when nobody else did.

Overall I do not trust any of them after this, but it's clear to me that he other pollsters were deliberately flooding us with junk polls as a form of voter suppression.

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Originally Posted by Winehole23

Bargaining comes after anger and denial, you seem to moving quickly through Kubler-Ross's stages of grief. :tu

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WTF are you even talking about? The polls were all wack. One of them was more accurate numbers wise than the others.

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Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale

WTF are you even talking about? The polls were all wack. One of them was more accurate numbers wise than the others.

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crossed wire, my bad. i edited my comment to reflect the reason. :lol

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Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale

Cant even believe you are arguing this :lol

RCP AVERAGE had Biden +6.7. It went to Biden less than a point. Trafalgar had Biden +1 in a very recent poll. Around the same time, an ABC poll had Biden +17 in WI :lol yeah, coming close to the actual number counts for something, elnono.

2016 they called it for Trump when nobody else did.

Overall I do not trust any of them after this, but it's clear to me that he other pollsters were deliberately flooding us with junk polls as a form of voter suppression.

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:lol RCP Average is trash, and it's been called out by any decent poll aggregator for adding absolutely trash polls like Trafelgegger

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...885414415?s=20

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status...249713152?s=20

That is indeed the problem with polls these days, there's plenty of absolutely crap polls that need to be adjusted accordingly or dropped entirely.

Again, if you're into polling, then you know these things.

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Originally Posted by Dirks_Finale

Cant even believe you are arguing this :lol

RCP AVERAGE had Biden +6.7. It went to Biden less than a point. Trafalgar had Biden +1 in a very recent poll. Around the same time, an ABC poll had Biden +17 in WI :lol yeah, coming close to the actual number counts for something, elnono.

2016 they called it for Trump when nobody else did.

Overall I do not trust any of them after this, but it's clear to me that he other pollsters were deliberately flooding us with junk polls as a form of voter suppression.

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Look at sheer number of people who voted for Trump.
Suppression my ass.
The clear problem with polling is a whole other issue.