Originally Posted by Scott M. Huse
Evolutionists insist that highly complex systems consisting of numerous interrelating components can arise through purely random and aimless processes. A brief consideration of probability statistics will reveal the absurdity and naivetι of such a viewpoint...
To illustrate, consider the likelihood of just spelling the word evolution by randomly selecting nine letters from the alphabet. The probability of success in only 1 chance in 26^9 trials. This is equivalent to 1 chance in 5,429,503,679,000! For such a modest request (accidentally spell a nine-letter word) these are rather bleak odds.
Consider a series of twenty cards that are numbered one through twenty. If these cards are thouroghly shuffled and then laid out successively in a line, the chance of laying them down in numerical order from 1 to 20 is 1 in 2,432,902,008,176,640,000 This huge number in known as 20 factorial, or 20! (the symbol ! represents factorial), and can be calculated "easily" by multiplying together all the numbers from 1 to 20.
Obviously, as the number of components increases, the probability of getting the desired result decreases rapidly
Let us consider the chance of development of a very simple system composed of only 200 integrated pars (simple compared with living systems). The probability of forming such an ordered system in 1 in 200 factorial, or 1 chance in 788,657,867,364,790,503,552,363,213,932,185,062,29 5,135,977,687,173,263,294,742,533,244,359,449,963, 403,342,920,304,284,011,984,623,904,177,212,138,91 9,638,830,257,642,790,242,637,105,061,926,624,952, 829,931,113,462,857,270,763,317,237,396,988,943,92 2,445,621,451,664,240,254,033,291,864,131,227,428, 294,853,277,524,242,407,573,903,240,321,257,405,57 9,568,660,226,031,904,170,324,062,351,700,858,796, 178,922,222,789,623,703,897,374,720,000,000,000,00 0,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.
This colossal number can be written more simply as approximately 10^375. Thus, there is only 1 chance out of 10^375 of selecting the proper arrangement for a 200-part integrated system on the first trial. But what if we keep on tryin gdifferent combinations over and over again? Won't we eventually achieve the desired result? Well, to begin with, there are only 10^80 electrons in the known universe. Assuming this to be the maximum number of parts available to work with, only 1 x 10^80 / 2 x 10^2 = 5 x 10^77 groups of 200 pars each could be formed at any one given time. But we have to form 10^375 such groups to be certain of getting the correct one. Assuming that none of the first trial groups work, let us continue trying over and over again at a generous rate of 1 billion (10^9) trials per second. Futhermore, to give the evolutionists every possible advantage, let us keep on trying for a period of 30 billion years(10^18 seconds) since this is the presumed age of the universe. But even granting such liberal concessions, we find that the maximum number of trial combinations which could be attempted is still only (5 x 10^77) (10^9) (10^18) = 5 x 10^104.
this is far too short of the needed 10^375 trial combinations required for success.
And so, even after all this, the chance that 1 of these 5 x 10^104 attempts would yield the desired result of a 200-part system is only 1 out of (1 x 10^375) / (5x10^104) = (2 x 10^270). Simply stated, the chance that a system composed of 200 integrated parts could develop by mere chance is for all practical purposes, nonexistent.
For his defense, the evolutionist might move for a mistrial on the basis of being misunderstood. Rather than suggesting that our 200-part integrated system be suddenly organized all at once, he is proposing that it develops gradually through a step-by-step mutation/ natural selection process. Unfortunately for the evolutionist, this argument only serves to weaken his cause. The probability of organizing a 200-part system by this step-by-step process in 1 out of the number represented by the series 2! + 3! + 4! + ... +200! Obviously this number is much larger than the 200 factorial and the chance of our 200-part system developing by this step-bystem mechanism is far less than its chance of developing all at once which was, for all practical purposes, a zero probability.
And yet a 200-part system is ridiculously primitive compared with living systems. Modern research by NASA has demonstrated that the most basic type of protein molecule that could be classified living is composed of at least 400 linked amino acids. Each amino acid, in turn, is made up of a specific arrangement of four of five chemical elements, and each chemical element is itself a unique combination of protons, neutrons, and electrons. Golay has demonstrated that the chance formation of even the simplest replicating protein molecule is 1 in 10^450 Wysong has calculated the probability of forming the proteins and DNA for the smallest self-replicating entity to be 1 in 10^167,626, even when granting astronomically generous amounts of time and reagents!! Who can imagine what the chance of formation of a more complex structure or organ such as the cerebral cortex in the human brain would be? It contains over 10,000,000,000 cells each of which is carefully arranged according to a specific design, and each of which is fantastically complex in itself!
Schutzenberger of the University of Paris, at a conference on "Mathematical Challenges to the Neo-Darwinian Interpretation of Evolution," concluded that the probability of evolution by mutation and natural selection is inconceivable.
"We believe that it is not conceiveable. In fact if we try to simulate such a situation by making changes randomly at the typographic level... on computer programs we find that we have no chance (i.e. less than 1/(10^1000). Even to see what the modified program would compute; it just jams and crashes...."
Given the exceedingly small probabilities of the preceding discussion (e.g. 1 in 10^375, 1 in 10^450, 1 in 10^1000, and 1 in 10^167,626), it is very significant to note that mathematicians generally consider any even with a probability of less than 1 chance in 10^50 as having a zero probability (i.e. it is impossible).
Thus, we find that it is mathematically impossible for even the most elementary form of life to have arisen by mere chance. Life is no accident. It is not even something that brilliant scientists can synthesize. the bewildering complexity of even the most basic organic molecules completely rules out the chance of life originating apart from super-intelligent design an planning. The most logical and resonable conclusion that can be reached based on mathematical analysis is that complex, ordered systems, which so characterize the world in which we live, never happened by mere chance.
