Spurs' future draft picks

I might expect them to be more inclined to draft domestic this coming draft than in previous years because right before the season started they announced the hiring of a Director of College Player Personnel, George Felton.

It was unclear from the article that he had a predecessor, so I would venture that it is a new position for their scouts. I lost my old media guides as well.

If it's new . . . would the Spurs pay a salary to a guy with a title like 'Director' and then not use his advisement? Sure if the guys he likes are gone that's one thing, but it's not unreasonable to take Felton's hiring as a sign that they recognized they needed help domestic-wise.

Ex is pretty much dead on. If the 2008 Plan is in full effect, this first round pick is either going to be a draft-n-stash or traded away for a future pick or a player on a one-year contract (like the Speedy Claxton trade).

In the 13 drafts in the Popovich era, the Spurs have drafted in the first round and kept Cory Alexander, Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Beno Udrih. One domestic pick in 13 drafts ... and Alexander was another attempted CIA Pop move because he was injured most of his junior and senior year so Pop told him to hide out so the Spurs could pick him. Basically, they've never taken a straight up domestic prospect in the Popovich era.

The Spurs have never traded for a first round draft pick under Pop. They've never traded up in the first round. To expect them to go out and pick a domestic talent for the first time in 14 years is wishful thinking. To think they are going to pick three or four domestic players is insane.

The most likely scenario is the Spurs use the first round pick on a draft-n-stash or trade it away. The second round pick would be used to draft a point guard (as long as Beno is traded by then). And whatever other picks the Spurs have in the draft will either be traded or used on Euros.

If the Spurs are going to extend the Beno saga one more season, I could very easily see them going into the draft with four picks and coming away with no players for next year's roster.

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Originally Posted by objective

I might expect them to be more inclined to draft domestic this coming draft than in previous years because right before the season started they announced the hiring of a Director of College Player Personnel, George Felton.

It was unclear from the article that he had a predecessor, so I would venture that it is a new position for their scouts. I lost my old media guides as well.

If it's new . . . would the Spurs pay a salary to a guy with a title like 'Director' and then not use his advisement? Sure if the guys he likes are gone that's one thing, but it's not unreasonable to take Felton's hiring as a sign that they recognized they needed help domestic-wise.

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Felton spent the last five years with the Pacers. During that time, Indiana didn't exactly mine gold out of the draft.

They drafted Fred Jones 14th, ahead of Tayshaun Prince and Nenad Krstic. They drafted David Harrison 30th ahead of Anderson Varejao. They drafted Shawne Williams in this year's draft in the first round at 17 (Nothing so far in the NBA and struggled in summer league). They also traded two second round picks for James White. And then cut him :lol

With this guy's track record, I'd rather the Spurs just stick to drafting Euros.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

You people make me laugh. A late first rounder can be a lifetime rotation player and potential starter? Lucky if he sticks beyond his required rookie contract guarantee years. They're not much better than second rounders, and come with that guarantee albatross contract.

The best way to re-juve the roster is the Malik Rose, Antonio Daniels, Stephen Jackson route: players who have been in the L for a year or two, and who's teams give up on them too soon. Every year, there are a couple of decent ones who get caught in a numbers game and get cut. We nabbed White and Butler this year, but usually don't have a roster spot available. In the next couple of years, a few spots will open up.

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Are you kidding me? Look how many good players have gone 20-30 since 2001:

David Lee (30)
Luther Head (24)
Jordan Farmar (26)
Jameer Nelson (20)
Kevin Martin (26)
Tony Allen (25)
Boris Diaw (21)
Leandro Barbosa (28)
Josh Howard (29)
Tayshaun Prince (23)
Nenad Kristic (24)
Gerald Wallace (25)
Jamal Tinsley (27)
Tony Parker (28)

Every one of these guys would get huge minutes on this team, and half of them would start.

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

Are you kidding me? Look how many good players have gone 20-30 since 2001:

David Lee (30)
Luther Head (24)
Jordan Farmar (26)
Jameer Nelson (20)
Kevin Martin (26)
Tony Allen (25)
Boris Diaw (21)
Leandro Barbosa (28)
Josh Howard (29)
Tayshaun Prince (23)
Nenad Kristic (24)
Gerald Wallace (25)
Jamal Tinsley (27)
Tony Parker (28)

Every one of these guys would get huge minutes on this team, and half of them would start.

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14 players...7 drafts..that's about a 20% hit rate, and some of those guys have not yet survived their rookie deals.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Felton spent the last five years with the Pacers. During that time, Indiana didn't exactly mine gold out of the draft.

They drafted Fred Jones 14th, ahead of Tayshaun Prince and Nenad Krstic. They drafted David Harrison 30th ahead of Anderson Varejao. They drafted Shawne Williams in this year's draft in the first round at 17 (Nothing so far in the NBA and struggled in summer league). They also traded two second round picks for James White. And then cut him :lol

With this guy's track record, I'd rather the Spurs just stick to drafting Euros.

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I didn't say he was stellar, but imo they're not going to pay this guy a decent front office salary to scout the NCAA only to pre-determinedly draft euros to keep overseas for the next couple of years.

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Originally Posted by exstatic

14 players...7 drafts..that's about a 20% hit rate, and some of those guys have not yet survived their rookie deals.

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I see your point about the Spurs' history of unwillingness to take on contracts, but in my view, the Spurs had no significant "need" at any one position during those times....not the case this year. The Spurs have legitimate needs at SF and PG, and I think they'll even try to trade up if they feel they can address one of these needs.

Attempts to trade up have also been made in the past, suggesting that the Spurs, though inclined to look at veterans, do think that some draftees have the ability to contribute right away.

I think the Spurs will have their eye on a few different players and if they are unsuccessful at getting any of them, they'll do what they always do...trade out of the first round for future picks.

What i got from reading this is that the spurs either have 4 or 5 picks in thsi year's draft, and thats gravy for me because I would really like to see an injection of youth to this lineup. I agree on the looking for bowen replacment, and i would use the rest of the picks to get youthful players. I would, however, like to see Scola come over to SA finally. Based on what people are complaining about this year, the FO has to shake things up this offseason, and that involves. in my opinion, bringing over Scola.


BTW ginobli _is_god,who is the chick that was in your sig?

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Originally Posted by exstatic

14 players...7 drafts..that's about a 20% hit rate, and some of those guys have not yet survived their rookie deals.

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Having a 20% shot of landing a guy to be in your top 8 isn't bad when you're talking maybe $1.8-2.5 million guaranteed over a rookie contract. Ever since 18-19 year-olds started entering the draft in mass in 2001, lots of talent has been getting pushed deep. Now 20-30 isn't much more of a crap-shoot than is 12-19.

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

Are you kidding me? Look how many good players have gone 20-30 since 2001:

David Lee (30)
Luther Head (24)
Jordan Farmar (26)
Jameer Nelson (20)
Kevin Martin (26)
Tony Allen (25)
Boris Diaw (21)
Leandro Barbosa (28)
Josh Howard (29)
Tayshaun Prince (23)
Nenad Kristic (24)
Gerald Wallace (25)
Jamal Tinsley (27)
Tony Parker (28)

Every one of these guys would get huge minutes on this team, and half of them would start.

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...and the Spurs could've had the ones in bold.

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Originally Posted by baseline bum

Having a 20% shot of landing a guy to be in your top 8 isn't bad when you're talking maybe $1.8-2.5 million guaranteed over a rookie contract. Ever since 18-19 year-olds started entering the draft in mass in 2001, lots of talent has been getting pushed deep. Now 20-30 isn't much more of a crap-shoot than is 12-19.

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I disagree with talent being pushed deeper, except maybe the first year or two. Those 18 and 19 year olds didn't make it to college, so the college entry pool was less talented to begin with. That was exposed in last year's dreadful draft when they didn't have the young kids for the first time.

I think we may be having two different discussions, though. You're saying what you think they SHOULD do, and I'm saying what I think they WILL do, which is opt out of the first round this year, and probably next. I think all of their efforts are going in to the '08 plan, and even two of those smallish late round contracts could derail that by not leaving enough to offer someone a MAX deal.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Felton spent the last five years with the Pacers. During that time, Indiana didn't exactly mine gold out of the draft.

They drafted Fred Jones 14th, ahead of Tayshaun Prince and Nenad Krstic. They drafted David Harrison 30th ahead of Anderson Varejao. They drafted Shawne Williams in this year's draft in the first round at 17 (Nothing so far in the NBA and struggled in summer league). They also traded two second round picks for James White. And then cut him :lol

With this guy's track record, I'd rather the Spurs just stick to drafting Euros.

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are you serious?
or is it just a notorious excoriating by using half of the truth or just facts, that are suited to back up your opinion?

First of all: you know, that a scout does his scouting in the first place, you can't blame him for decisions the GM did. so we will also never know about the exactly impact of a scouts work. do you really think Felton just hands over a list of players to Larry Bird and Bird just executes what he is told? that's just naive.

but let's look at Felton's record. I wouldn't claim, that it is the best in the NBA, but it is far from just finding busts. in fact, it is pretty decent.

the Fred Jones pick from 2002 could have been a better pick, but Jones isn't a bust for a mid 1st rounder. picking Tskitishvili with no.5 or Wagner with the no.6, when Amare is still on the board is a major mistake, Picking Jones at no. 14 isn't IMO.

why didn't you mention the drafting of James Jones 2003 (no.49 pick)?
that's a great pick for 2nd half of 2nd round. Jones would likely be the no.6 or 7 in our current rotation, with a chance to become our starting SF 2008.
(Spurs always liked him and might have signed him 2005, if the Finley signing didn't happen)

or the pick of Danny Granger at no. 17 in 2005?
Granger is now the starting SF on a Pacers team that is quite deep at the foreward spots.
in his second season, Granger looks like future all-star potential. a bad pick?

calling the Williams pick a bust is ridiculous in this monent. Williams is picked based on potential, noone expected him to contribute this year, especially not with so many forewards on this pacers roster.
(btw. he also was picked before the Pacers traded for Harrington, Powell and Marshall and signed Baston. that was also the reason, why they cut White. this decisions don't have much to do with the work of Felton)

and btw. the pick of Alexander Johnson looks quite nice today for a no. 45 pick in a weak draft class.

and the Harrison pick has been labeled as one of the steals of the 2004 draft, before Harrison decided to butlerize himself. and the scouting of a player like Varejao isn't exactly the job of a college scout. so why do you blame Felton for the fact, that the Pacers picked Harrison over him?

I'm very unhappy with many moves of the FO in the last years. but for sure not that they hired a college scout, because they are just reacting to a default of the past. Felton isn't the worst option to start with.

timvp is all about specious argument. nicely done, mountainballer.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Body

timvp is all about specious argument. nicely done, mountainballer.

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...and your'e all about wishful thinking. timvp's argument is based on past behavior of the same group in the Spurs front office.

That past behavior is no longer working. We'll see if the Spurs continue to draw from that well, but I don't think so. My point with timvp is rather that he excels at selective stats to support his arguments.

the fact that they've hired a director of college player personnel is enough to suggest that there will be a change in behavior, unless Holt likes throwing money away.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Body

That past behavior is no longer working. We'll see if the Spurs continue to draw from that well, but I don't think so. My point with timvp is rather that he excels at selective stats to support his arguments.

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Right, because exactly one team has won the O'Brien since the Spurs have, and gee, we might not win this year. If this model is broken, there are probably somewhere in the high 20s of teams that would like to be broken in exactly the same way. Spurs fans are just spoiled and expect to win every year. Grow up. The Spur braintrust keeps them in contention for a fucking DECADE with smaller ups and downs. Does anyone remember the old rivalries? Portland? shit. Sacto? shit. Lakers? Just finally crawling out of the shit.

I was just wondering about our 2nd rounders this year:

now that it looks more and more that we will have 3 of them (currently no. 35, no. 52 and no. 58), is there a realistic scenario to turn them into a 1st rounder to add to our own 1st rounder?

thinking of Suns. they own 3 1st rounders this year. considering that they are a young team and that they will get something very nice with the Hawks pick and also own the Cavs pick, it would make much more sense for them to trade their own 1 st rounder for multible 2nd rounders they could use for gambles on european players they can leave overseas for some years and wait how the develope.
(in another scenario they could of corse use 2 picks to trade up)

another team that might be interested are the Bobcats, who own the Raptors 1st rounder. (currently no.20). they don't have a 2nd rounder this year, but again have to repleace half the roster. their own pick will be a top pick again, so they might be interested in mutiple picks to get cheap players to fill the roster. the 3 Spurs 2nd rounders alone won't be enough to get a no. 20 pick, but maybe with a sweetener. (Beno? White?)

any thoughts?

I don't think the Spurs are going to want to give guaranteed money to a first-rounder this draft. I look for them to maybe try to package the pick in a trade for a player with an expiring contract. As far as their second rounders go, they will do what they always do, draft a Euro and hope they find a "gem in the rough" like with Ginobili. I like everyone has been tired with the Luis Scola Saga...maybe the Spurs finally do something with him this year, who knows, but really I don't think he is well-suited to play on a Spurs team that needs more athleticism and youth. Basically, he's just a younger version of Fab, so maybe somebody wouldn't mind having him on their team and we get something back in return. I think the Spurs are not really looking to spend alot this offseason, maybe retain Vaughan, Bonner and try to trade Beno, but basically they are saving their cash for 2008 when they can do some damage in free agency.

I don't know if anyone has mentioned Al Thorton from FSU. Anyone have an idea where he might go in the draft???

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Originally Posted by mountainballer

I was just wondering about our 2nd rounders this year:

now that it looks more and more that we will have 3 of them (currently no. 35, no. 52 and no. 58), is there a realistic scenario to turn them into a 1st rounder to add to our own 1st rounder?

thinking of Suns. they own 3 1st rounders this year. considering that they are a young team and that they will get something very nice with the Hawks pick and also own the Cavs pick, it would make much more sense for them to trade their own 1 st rounder for multible 2nd rounders they could use for gambles on european players they can leave overseas for some years and wait how the develope.
(in another scenario they could of corse use 2 picks to trade up)

another team that might be interested are the Bobcats, who own the Raptors 1st rounder. (currently no.20). they don't have a 2nd rounder this year, but again have to repleace half the roster. their own pick will be a top pick again, so they might be interested in mutiple picks to get cheap players to fill the roster. the 3 Spurs 2nd rounders alone won't be enough to get a no. 20 pick, but maybe with a sweetener. (Beno? White?)

any thoughts?

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I can't imagine the Suns would deal with us. We helped them out tremendously by giving them Barbosa, but they won't want to return the favor now that they're championship contenders. It wouldn't hurt to try. The Raptors pick (from Charlotte) is likely more available. The Spurs could use the Milwaukee pick to trade up to it. I don't think they'd take a package of 2nd rounders for it. It's just that the Chicago pick, if the Spurs get it, and their own late 2nd rounder, just aren't worth much at all. They could get an earlier 2nd, but not a 1st. All 3 picks? I think the Milwaukee + our first can move up some spots, but those late 2nds probably won't do anything at all.

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Originally Posted by MoSpur

I don't know if anyone has mentioned Al Thorton from FSU. Anyone have an idea where he might go in the draft???

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Your great sites here are Draft Express and nbadraft.net. He'll be a lottery pick.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Body

They could get an earlier 2nd, but not a 1st. All 3 picks? I think the Milwaukee + our first can move up some spots, but those late 2nds probably won't do anything at all.

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well a 1st rounder will be quite expensive this year, so our 3 2nd rounders might not be enough. (sweeten with White?)
about the late 2nd rounders I disagree. in a deep draft, they do have some value. (not that much, but something). the interesting thing for a GM about thoses late 2nd rounders is, that they can only win by using them.
if they find a decent role player, they can take all the props. if the player never makes it to the NBA, people will just call the pick worthless anyhow.
but as we know best, in every draft there are at least 2 or 3 usefull players at 45 or higher.
remember 2005: no.48-Gelabale, no.50-Gomes, no.55-Roberts., jury is still out on no.49 Blatche and btw. the no.60 pick Alex Acker looks really good this year in the eurolegue, I expect him to be back in the NBA soon (he could be interesting for the Spurs also)

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Originally Posted by mountainballer

well a 1st rounder will be quite expensive this year, so our 3 2nd rounders might not be enough. (sweeten with White?)

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I just don't think White is worth much. There are a good handful of guys that will be available in the 30s who might already be better than him. Would you take Demetrius Nichols this second over him? I probably would. I don't think teams would put much stock in White at all, even as a sweetener. If anything he'd take up roster space for some other guy.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Body

Your great sites here are Draft Express and nbadraft.net. He'll be a lottery pick.

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I've never been really impressed with NBAdraft.net's mocks. DraftExpress does a good job though.