Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
To give you an idea of how little the Spurs foul, they allow opponents to shoot 19 free throws per game. The Suns are second in the league at 22.1 free throws per game. That's a difference of 3.1 free throws. The Portland Trailblazers are 21st in the league, allowing 25.2 free throws per game. So basically the difference between the Spurs and second place is the same difference between the second place team and the 21st place team.
With that little of fouling, the Spurs better be pretty damn high in Points Per Possession or else they'd get run out of the building.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
Additionally, the Spurs lead the league in opponents' free throw percentage by a pretty large margin. So unless you expect the cosmic forces to allow that to continue, the balancing out of that stat will expose the Spurs' defense even more if they don't improve.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kori Ellis
Because their interior D is awful and they gave up 70+ points in the paint.
Rasho for Bonner+Williams is looking better and better...
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
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Originally Posted by ShoogarBear
I don't know how points per possession is calculated, but if in that same example 1-4 is treated as four possessions then it is also meaningless.
It's only one possession.
The end of a possession for ppp is when you give back the ball to the opponent.
ppp is by far the best stat to judge the overall quality of a defense. The team that won at the end of a game is the team that has scored more points, not the team with the lowest FG% or the best rebounding team. If a your ppp on offense is greater than your ppp on defense, you win the game.
Spurs ppp is low this year mainly because Spurs don't do a lot of fouls. That doesn't mean that ppp is a bad stat but that doing a foul is often a bad defense.
BTW, ppp for the Bucks game : 1.23
ppp for the Rockets game : 1.13
it's really bad.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
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Originally Posted by ShoogarBear
Nikos, I hope you are not seriously trying to say the 2004 Spurs were the best defensive team of all time. That would negate the value of points per possession right then and there.
Well statistically they were. Do I feel they were the best ever? Who knows? I don't think they were good enough defensively to matchup with a prime Shaq led team-- but in terms of an 82 game season context they probably were. They were at least good enough to be mentioned in the same breath as any team of all time on that end. That I know for sure.
Just because they have the best point per possesion defense of all time doesn't negate anything. Since when are statistics useless because they invalidate ones biases? Who do you 'think' is the best defensive team of all time and why?
I don't think the stats show how well the Spurs would defend a certain team in a 7 game series come playoff time -- but the 82 game season stats do show quality of defense at the general level. And that 2004 Spurs team was astronomically great on that end.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
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Originally Posted by timvp
Points Per Possession is going to be skewed in the Spurs because the Spurs don't foul. That's part of the Spurs' defensive scheme and has been since Pop became coach. Think about it, even if you let teams shoot 55% from the floor but don't foul anyone ... that's better Points Per Possession than a team that holds team to 40% but fouls. That's because the NBA shoots 74% from the free throw line. Of course if you don't foul, you aren't going to give up 57% field goal percentage (~57% = equivalent FG% for each possession you send someone to the line) even if you are the Phoenix Suns.
Talking about the Phoenix Suns, they are 14th in the league in Points Per Possession. So unless you think the Suns are a better than average defensive team, you can pretty much throw that stat back in the trash.
Don't foul at all and give up 55% field goal percentage and you'd lead the league. :rollin
How is it 'skewed'? Part of basketball is to limit your opponents scoring efficiency -- field goal shooting is the main proportion of that, but not the only portion. If a team doesn't get to the line much, the team isn't scoring efficiently in all liklihood, and a few percentage points doesn't really make up the difference between getting to the line a lot and not. In other words its better to get to the line a lot more than another team and shoot 75%, than get to the line a lot less and shoot 79% (all other stats aside).
Obviously you have to rebound, limit and create turnovers as well. But in the end of the day if your team scores at a high efficiency and keeps the opponent at a low efficiency as Bruno stated, the team is doing a great job. Team Efficiency for opponents against the Spurs is 102.3. That basically means they are scoring at a 51.2% percentage which is good for third in the league.
Without breaking down the stats these discussions aren't as useful because you can't really tell where the effectiveness is coming from unless you compare teams. But at the end of the day Offensive and Defensive Efficiency is a far more useful stat than pure FG% in accessing the quality of a team defense or offense.
Ughh the Suns are #1 in the league in Points Per Possession on offense. Makes sense considering even to the naked eye they are an offensive juggernaut. They average 114.8 points per 100 possesions or 1.148 points per possesion -- which means their True Shooting Percentage is about 57.4%.
BTW -- FT's count as .44 per shot (adjusted for technicals, illegal defense etc....) -- generally they would be about .50.
http://www.knickerblogger.net/stats/2007/o_oe.htm
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
Quote:
Originally Posted by timvp
Talking about the Phoenix Suns, they are 14th in the league in Points Per Possession. So unless you think the Suns are a better than average defensive team, you can pretty much throw that stat back in the trash.
Talking about the Phoenix Suns, they are 13th in the league in opponents FG%. So unless you think the Suns are a better than average defensive team, you can pretty much throw that stat back in the trash.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
Watching the Spurs play the past couple of games is really really frustrating.
It almost looks as if they are not really interested in being there. They look lazy and cocky...Not the spurs i am used to seeing the past 4 years.
I really hope the coaching staff can kick their ass back into gear, because i hate watching lazy basketball.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
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Originally Posted by Bartzini
Watching the Spurs play the past couple of games is really really frustrating.
It almost looks as if they are not really interested in being there. They look lazy and cocky...Not the spurs i am used to seeing the past 4 years.
I really hope the coaching staff can kick their ass back into gear, because i hate watching lazy basketball.
That's absolutely right.
No defense no championships.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
I see the defense on the perimeter being very good actually. Bowen, Parker, Ginobili, given the rules do an excellent job one on one. The problem is anytime they get rubbed off the defense seems to collapse. Where the big men go...and often they aren't in the game.....is a mystery to me. How Williams and Redd can conduct an in game lay-up drill is beyond me. Tim is either a) out of position, b) not athletic enough to contest or c) doesn't give a shit. I know that puts a lot on him, but geez he is the superstar on the team... and he is often the culprit. Are they just going through the motions waiting for April?
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
PPP is the best stat for analyzing overall defensive effectiveness for the regular season. But like every other stat, it's pretty useless for prognostication (not that I believe that's what Nikos is trying to do), because it judges every game and possession with equal weight, regardless of opponent, injuries, or whether the game was played in November or April.
You may have, statistically, the best defense of all time... but if your Playoff opponent can completely alter your defense by making you front their center, if they can exploit your best offensive player by frustrating him into costly turnovers, and if they can catch a ball, turn around, file their taxes and shoot in 4 tenths of a second... what you did in the regular season against the other 28 teams is meaningless.
Re: New Ways of Spurs Basketball
Quote:
Originally Posted by Spurminator
PPP is the best stat for analyzing overall defensive effectiveness for the regular season. But like every other stat, it's pretty useless for prognostication (not that I believe that's what Nikos is trying to do), because it judges every game and possession with equal weight, regardless of opponent, injuries, or whether the game was played in November or April.
You may have, statistically, the best defense of all time... but if your Playoff opponent can completely alter your defense by making you front their center, if they can exploit your best offensive player by frustrating him into costly turnovers, and if they can catch a ball, turn around, file their taxes and shoot in 4 tenths of a second... what you did in the regular season against the other 28 teams is meaningless.
This is what I was saying in a previous post. In the playoffs the stats are meaningless. But they are a nice indicator of the quality of the team. Matchups and health can change everything. Yes every team gets a little luck their way as well.
