Originally Posted by John Hollinger, ESPN
1. Chauncey Billups, Pistons (p)
2. Vince Carter, Nets (p)
3. Rashard Lewis, Sonics (p)
The gap between spots No. 3 and 4 is longer than Yao Ming's inseam. Lewis potentially will get a max contract in the $100-million neighborhood; the next three players on this list might not get half of that.
As with Carter, he has the option to sign an extension with his team between now and the end of the June, but it wouldn't seem to be in either player's interests to do so when they could get a new, long-term deal this summer.
4. Gerald Wallace, Bobcats (p)
Wallace is perhaps the game's most unheralded star, using his tremendous athleticism to block shots, crash the boards and throw down transition jams. He's also effective enough off the bounce that he averages 16.2 points per game despite a hideous outside shot.
Considering he's only 24 and seems to have considerable upside left to explore, he might be the most undervalued commodity on this year's market.
5. Mo Williams, Bucks
6. Grant Hill, Magic
This is where the rankings get less defined. Hill is clearly the best player left on the list. But we don't how many games he'll be available to play, which is why nobody is going to offer Hill a deal longer than two or three years.
That said, he's still a star when healthy and easily could be the piece that puts a contending team over the top, plus he's a class act who won't ruffle feathers wherever he goes.
7. Darko Milicic, Magic (r)
8. Anderson Varejao, Cavs (r)
I'm not sure how high to put Varejao. On the one hand, scouts and execs absolutely love the guy because he plays hard all the time and never needs the ball. But on the other hand, you have to wonder if he's already pretty close to his ceiling as far as productivity and, if so, whether that output is worth anything more than the midlevel exception.
I'm not ruling out future improvement, but I'd sure as heck be wondering this if I was about to pay him.
9. Andres Nocioni, Bulls (r)
The Wild Bull of the Pampas is putting together his second straight solid season and, at 27, figures to have plenty left in the tank.
The one complication at the moment is the plantar fasciitis in his foot, which could make teams skittish if he can't come back this season and show his usual form.
10. Chris Webber, Pistons
11. Ruben Patterson, Bucks
People are going to stay away from this guy because of his reputation, but that might be a mistake. He's playing the best basketball of his career right now, averaging 14.4 points per game and shooting 54.5 percent from the floor. Plus, he's mellowed considerably off the floor and hasn't gotten into trouble in years.
He's 31, he's only 6-5 and he can't shoot, so if he loses a step he's finished. But he doesn't seem to have lost a thing athletically, and could be a big value this summer if teams don't get too crazy with the years.
12. Travis Outlaw, Blazers (r)
Outlaw hasn't played a ton of minutes this year, but when he's played, the 22-year-old forward has been effective. With his length and athleticism he has more potential than any other player outside the top 7, and after four years it looks like he's finally starting to put it together as a real basketball player.
At this point in the list, the gamble on that potential might be a better bet than a known quantity with a lower ceiling.
13. Luke Walton, Lakers
He chose the right time to have a breakout year. The fourth-year forward has improved tremendously as a scorer, which in turn has made his devastating passing skills even more of a threat.
On the downside, he's a better fit in a read-and-react system like L.A.'s than on a one-on-one team, so not every club will be a good match. Plus, he's only had one good season so teams shouldn't get too giddy with the bidding.
14. Jerry Stackhouse, Mavericks
15. Mo Peterson, Raptors
Of the three long-range specialists (Peterson, Matt Carroll and Jason Kapono) who figure to get paid this summer, Peterson is the worst shooter and the best basketball player. I can't provide a good explanation for why he lost his starting job in Toronto, but his performance hasn't fallen off one iota and, at 29, he figures to stick around for a while.
He could be a good value on a three-year deal around the midlevel.
16. Matt Carroll , Bobcats
Carroll has a rep as a shooter and he certainly can stroke it, but unlike a lot of shooters he has a real knack for getting to the line. That helps him get points even when the jumper isn't falling, which is why he scores so much (19.3 points per 40 minutes) for a shooting specialist.
He's 26 and his numbers this season aren't too far off his career norms, so he should be able to do this for quite a bit longer.
17. Mikki Moore, Nets
18. Jason Kapono, Heat
A non-entity before the season, Kapono worked his way into the Heat's starting lineup by ditching the high-difficulty Larry Bird fadeaways and sticking to spot-up shooting.
He's hitting a sizzling 52.5 percent on 3-pointers as a result and has the fourth-best true shooting percentage in basketball; that should earn him a nice payday over the summer.
19. DeShawn Stevenson, Wizards (p)
Stevenson had to settle for the minimum after opting out of his contract with Orlando a year ago; I have a feeling he'll do better this time.
The 25-year-old defensive specialist finally is beginning to blossom at the offensive end, shooting 46.5 percent on 3-pointers while reducing the 20-foot fadeaways off the dribble that had been his previous calling card.
20. Bonzi Wells, Rockets (p)
Wells' season mostly has been a lost cause, but he's had a few nice games recently. Moreover, everybody in the league still understands how he physically can overwhelm smaller guards with his power inside.
Wells won't get anything close to the 5-year, $36 million deal he turned down from Sacramento a year ago, but his off-year in Houston won't shut off the market completely.
21. Earl Boykins, Bucks (p)
What happens to a 5-5 guard with a shaky jumper when he gets into his 30s? I think more than a few teams are reluctant to find the answer to that question, which is why the bidding for Boykins might be less enthusiastic than one might expect just by looking at his stats.
The Hawks' experience with Speedy Claxton this year probably won't help Earl's case any.
22. Ime Udoka, Trail Blazers
After emerging from nowhere to become Portland's defensive ace and a surprisingly effective 3-point shooter from the corners (39.1 percent), Udoka looks to be in line for a nice payday.
Unfortunately for him, there are a lot of wing-defender types on the market this summer (Wallace, Patterson, Stevenson, Mickael Pietrus, Desmond Mason, Dahntay Jones, etc.), so that's likely to keep the bidding from getting too crazy.
23. Mickael Pietrus, Warriors (r)
Despite a second consecutive off-year, Pietrus remains intriguing because of his combination of defensive talent and 3-point shooting.
He's still only 25 and has scored at a decent clip his entire career, but his inability to put the pieces together is leaving a lot of people bewildered.
24. Charlie Bell, Bucks (r)
The fourth key Milwaukee player who will become a free agent after the season, Bell should be a desirable commodity because he's still fairly young (27), he plays solid defense on the wings despite his small stature (6-3), and he can shoot the rock (36.9 percent on 3s for his career).
25. Desmond Mason, Hornets
A great athlete with a hideous jumper, Mason's offensive limitations keep him from climbing higher up this list in spite of his undeniable physical skills.
The worry is that those crazy hops will diminish as he gets into his 30s -- he hits the big 3-0 in October -- while the offensive struggles will persist.
Best of the rest: The next 10, in no particular order -- Chucky Atkins, Grizzlies; Kelenna Azubuike, Warriors (r); Matt Barnes, Warriors; Travis Diener, Magic (r); Chuck Hayes, Rockets (r); Dahntay Jones, Grizzlies; Jamaal Magloire, Trail Blazers; Chris Mihm, Lakers; Smush Parker, Lakers; James Posey, Heat.
