DMN's Colishaw: Spurs, others have "no chance" of beating Mavs or Suns in playoffs

The thing is, guys, NOBODY in Dallas wants to read an article saying the Mavericks can be beaten by the Spurs. Someone who would write that in a Dallas paper doesn't understand his audience or is Dale Hansen, who loves scaring the shit out of fans and has the clout to get away with it.

Ahh, I remember just a few years ago, all the "experts" declaring the lowly Detroit Pistons had no chance of defeating the might Shaq&Kobe-led Lakers. Remember that, people? Never underestimate the heart of a champion.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

The thing is, guys, NOBODY in Dallas wants to read an article saying the Mavericks can be beaten by the Spurs. Someone who would write that in a Dallas paper doesn't understand his audience or is Dale Hansen, who loves scaring the shit out of fans and has the clout to get away with it.

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I disagree, I listen to the local sports media, ala ESPN 103.3, and in the past they are often hyper-critical over the mavs and their performance. Any local media is going to be partial to their team and to assume that that only relates to Dallas is asinine. Since when is the media a non-biased entitiy anyways.
Come on now, if one article upset Some spurs fans that bad, wow. A lot of the guys on this board say us Mav fans constantly bitch about getting no respect, and then one article comes up and boom: Its the Spurs against the world.Well, welcome to the Mavs world, where up until this year, and even more so up until this point and time during this season, especially after the loss in the Finals, have we really started garnering some national respect. Its going to be a hellla good playoffs this year.

That's a powerful speech, Havoc, but there's no way the Mavs should be viewed as Goliath, especially by 'dem Spurs.

Dallas can and should be favored over the Spurs because:

1) They are a better team overall

2) They have matchup advantages against the Spurs.

But the overconfidence by the Dallas media is foolish. I just finished a statistical analysis of the Mavericks' season -- and they are not quite as strong as their record shows through 59 games.

Statistical gobbledygook below:

I took the point differential in each of their games and mapped out a normal distribution. By doing that, I can draw a line on the curve through "Point differential =0," and calculate the percentage of the integral of the normal distribution that lies under that line.

The Mavs' expected winning percentage is 75.13%, as opposed to their actual of 84.75%. They have 5 more wins than what their performance would predict. In actuality, they are a 62-win team that has won an unusual amount of close games.

While that is still serious title material, and Dallas rightly is the championship favorite, they are not so invincible as a lot of their fans and media might like to believe. It is no sure thing.

This could inspire the Spurs to play hard against the Mavs.

Mr. Hollinger, going 23-4 in games decided by nine points or less cannot possibly be a matter of luck now, can it?

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Originally Posted by Dirkadirkastan

Mr. Hollinger, going 23-4 in games decided by nine points or less cannot possibly be a matter of luck now, can it?

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If statistically they should be only 18-9, then yeah, the extra 5 wins could be luck. +/-3 wins from the expected value is normal. 5 would be unusual, but not unheard of.

Nobody has been able to find any statistical measure for extraordinary "clutchness," only for choking. A "clutch" team performs equally as well under pressure as not. A choking team visibly underperforms.

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Originally Posted by Mavs are Champs

I disagree, I listen to the local sports media, ala ESPN 103.3, and in the past they are often hyper-critical over the mavs and their performance. Any local media is going to be partial to their team and to assume that that only relates to Dallas is asinine. Since when is the media a non-biased entitiy anyways.

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Okay, Dallas isn't a bandwagon town, dude. You've obviously never listened to the radio on the day after a Cowboys game. Being "hyper-critical" of the Mavs "in the past" wouldn't coincide with their losing, would it? Don't know if you've been paying attention or not, but they haven't lost in a while and still haven't gotten past blaming the officials for stealing their championship from them last season, complete with being almost completely unable to hide their glee that Dwayne Wade got severely injured.

Again, Cowlishaw knows better than to write an article splashing cold water on Mavericks fans during this incredible run, even in an article that's mostly about the NHL. Negativity doesn't sell papers in Dallas until a team starts to struggle. When the Mavs have a bad stretch and drop a few games in the next couple of weeks we'll see what the reaction is.

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Originally Posted by Extra Stout

If statistically they should be only 18-9, then yeah, the extra 5 wins could be luck. +/-3 wins from the expected value is normal. 5 would be unusual, but not unheard of.

Nobody has been able to find any statistical measure for extraordinary "clutchness," only for choking. A "clutch" team performs equally as well under pressure as not. A choking team visibly underperforms.

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Almost any coach, or any athelete would say that a W is a W, and games and stats aren't tracked by how "lucky said team is. You can tweak numbers and stats to make your case by adjusting the formula. The true litmus test when watching these teams play, is to actually "watch." A LOT of these 5 to 6 point wins these Mavs have had are do to solid play, rebounding, defense, etc. The Mavs never seem worried throughout the game, and if the go down by 5 or 6, like last night, a timeout is called and Avery tweaks the game plan.

Then Boom, the Mavs go on a run. They are just playing really solid bball, much like the Spurs right now.

Luck comes into play when looking at which Orlando team the Mavs and Spurs had to play. :p:

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Originally Posted by Mavs are Champs

Almost any coach, or any athelete would say that a W is a W, and games and stats aren't tracked by how "lucky said team is. You can tweak numbers and stats to make your case by adjusting the formula. The true litmus test when watching these teams play, is to actually "watch." A LOT of these 5 to 6 point wins these Mavs have had are do to solid play, rebounding, defense, etc. The Mavs never seem worried throughout the game, and if the go down by 5 or 6, like last night, a timeout is called and Avery tweaks the game plan.

Then Boom, the Mavs go on a run. They are just playing really solid bball, much like the Spurs right now.

Luck comes into play when looking at which Orlando team the Mavs and Spurs had to play. :p:

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I agree. The Mavs are playing the way the Spurs have from time to time in the last fifteen years. If they get down, they don't panic because they know they are going to make a run. If the game is close at the end, they don't panic because they know they can play good defense and execute. Dirk is confident that he can get a shot, and if he can't get a shot, he knows someone is open that's not afraid to take an open shot he provides for them. The confidence is the factor in those games.

BUT: Everyone has a plan until they get hit.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

Okay, Dallas isn't a bandwagon town, dude. You've obviously never listened to the radio on the day after a Cowboys game. Being "hyper-critical" of the Mavs "in the past" wouldn't coincide with their losing, would it? Don't know if you've been paying attention or not, but they haven't lost in a while and still haven't gotten past blaming the officials for stealing their championship from them last season, complete with being almost completely unable to hide their glee that Dwayne Wade got severely injured.

Again, Cowlishaw knows better than to write an article splashing cold water on Mavericks fans during this incredible run, even in an article that's mostly about the NHL. Negativity doesn't sell papers in Dallas until a team starts to struggle. When the Mavs have a bad stretch and drop a few games in the next couple of weeks we'll see what the reaction is.

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If that happens. You can't just cherry pick quotes to justify your argument. I said that the media was biased, but not just Dallas'. So what if a homer wants to write an article singing the praises of a team that has won 15 in a row after winning 13 and 12 straight and after going 50-5. So what do you think he should say; "The mavericks, who are breaking all kinds of team records, is so so and they should just go ahead and pack their bags come playoff time."
And trashing a team who plays solid every night is a hard thing to do. And almost any fan in Dallas will tell you that the Mavs blew their chance last year. They blamed the Mavs for sucking it up, not the refs, not even the Heat, which I dont think is entirely fair.
As for DWade getting hurt, it has nothing to do with the injury, it has everything to do with the wheelchair/shoulder display. It sucks when anyone gets hurt on any team, but tell me you wouldnt think it was a little ridiculous if Duncan, the cornerstone to your team, would be wheeled off after a SHOULDER injury. Im not convinced he wouldnt keep playing in spite of being hurt.

Phoenix is a paper tiger. None of the contenders have anything to fear from them.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

I agree. The Mavs are playing the way the Spurs have from time to time in the last fifteen years. If they get down, they don't panic because they know they are going to make a run. If the game is close at the end, they don't panic because they know they can play good defense and execute. Dirk is confident that he can get a shot, and if he can't get a shot, he knows someone is open that's not afraid to take an open shot he provides for them. The confidence is the factor in those games.

BUT: Everyone has a plan until they get hit.

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Agreed, just like last years Championship.

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Originally Posted by Extra Stout

If statistically they should be only 18-9, then yeah, the extra 5 wins could be luck. +/-3 wins from the expected value is normal. 5 would be unusual, but not unheard of.

Nobody has been able to find any statistical measure for extraordinary "clutchness," only for choking. A "clutch" team performs equally as well under pressure as not. A choking team visibly underperforms.

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I'm willing to bet the Mavericks perform well in categories like FT%, FG%, TO, and REB. My theory is that teams that win more games than they should perform well in these categories, and I'll take a look at it as soon as I can.

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Originally Posted by Mavs are Champs

If that happens. You can't just cherry pick quotes to justify your argument. I said that the media was biased, but not just Dallas'. So what if a homer wants to write an article singing the praises of a team that has won 15 in a row after winning 13 and 12 straight and after going 50-5. So what do you think he should say; "The mavericks, who are breaking all kinds of team records, is so so and they should just go ahead and pack their bags come playoff time."

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Go back and read my post. My point is the writers in Dallas KNOW not to write articles saying something like that in the middle of a run like this, and I was explaining it to the Spurs fans that don't live up here. Cowlishaw wrote exactly what he was supposed to write. The Mavericks fans are in such an uproar there are guys logging onto Spurs message boards with ridiculous names like "Mavs are Champs". Why the fuck would a sportswriter want to go against that kind of incredible bandwagon passion? The average Mavericks fan doesn't know dick about basketball and actually thinks Mark Cuban is the reason the team is good. You sell papers to that kind of person by talking up why they should win, because otherwise they start focusing on Cowboys season.

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Originally Posted by SRJ

I'm willing to bet the Mavericks perform well in categories like FT%, FG%, TO, and REB. My theory is that teams that win more games than they should perform well in these categories, and I'll take a look at it as soon as I can.

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I agree, the term clutch is too arbitrary. Its the same principal as being down by three with 5 seconds left. Who are the Spurs going to go to for that last second 3 point attempt. Duncan? Parker? Finley? Horry? (Rhetorical)

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Originally Posted by Mavs are Champs

Who are the Spurs going to go to for that last second 3 point attempt. Duncan? Parker? Finley? Horry? (Rhetorical)

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Ginobili.

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

Go back and read my post. My point is the writers in Dallas KNOW not to write articles saying something like that in the middle of a run like this, and I was explaining it to the Spurs fans that don't live up here. Cowlishaw wrote exactly what he was supposed to write. The Mavericks fans are in such an uproar there are guys logging onto Spurs message boards with ridiculous names like "Mavs are Champs". Why the fuck would a sportswriter want to go against that kind of incredible bandwagon passion? The average Mavericks fan doesn't know dick about basketball and actually thinks Mark Cuban is the reason the team is good. You sell papers to that kind of person by talking up why they should win, because otherwise they start focusing on Cowboys season.

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Even if the Mavs win the Championship, the local media will start talking Cowboys the day after, thats just how Dallas is about the 'boys. I get your point, I really do. My point is that their is an entire thread dedicated on the Spurstalk board about what this one local sportswriter said about his team, and how it shouldnt matter, because thats how all sports writers are. And,,, you can't and shouldnt assume that just because theteam is doing well now, that everyone who likes them is a bandwagoneer. Thats not a fair assumption.

AS for my screen name, I like the Discussions overall on this board more so than other boards. I don't see a problem in engaging in some lively arguments with true sports fans on this site, and also trashing some of the idiots who like the Spurs because they are bandwagonners and thats all. Its ususally pretty easy to tell the difference. And read my signature if you are upset over the screen name.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

Ginobili.

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Damnit, I said rhetorical, but how did I not put Ginobili in that list,, it messed up my whole point. :depressed

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Originally Posted by Mavs are Champs

and also trashing some of the idiots who like the Spurs because they are bandwagonners and thats all. Its ususally pretty easy to tell the difference.

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Like a Spurs fan who would join a division rival's fanboard after his team had won, I don't know, fifteen games in a row? Is that how you tell?

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Originally Posted by Mavs are Champs

Damnit, I said rhetorical, but how did I not put Ginobili in that list,, it messed up my whole point. :depressed

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Yeah, I know.

i don't take much stock in local sportswriter, they mostly tend to be homers...bill simmons basically made the same assessments a couple of weeks ago after the trade deadline expired

keep the stupid articles coming cowlishaw. I love the fact that for once the spurs are not going to be picked by anyone to win so they can just fly under the radar, so to speak, and maybe ruin some teams "great" seasons.

Some of the greatest teams in NBA History have been defeated by an 8th seed team on a roll. The Spurs are former NBA Champions, they are on a roll. If they are on a roll come playoff time they have a big chance to beat the Mavs, and Suns.