Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown
I think there are some faulty assumptions that are pretty pervasive in this thread.
First, while Pop does shorten his rotations at playoff time, last year's series with the Mavericks was an anomaly, largely because Pop basically had 4 guys -- Nesterovic, Mohammed, Udrih, and Oberto -- who he refused to play, mostly because each proved himself to be overmatched in short stretches.
I still believe that part of the impetus for the Spurs off-season moves was to lengthen the bench in a playoff series. Because of that, I think it's conceivable that Pop will play at least 9 and maybe as many as 10 guys -- at least for cursory minutes -- for most of the playoffs.
Likewise, the notion that Vaughn might not play is laughable. Barring some remarkable set back in the next few weeks, Vaughn will play some 1st and 2nd quarter minutes in playoff games, and probably will play some 3rd quarter and early 4th quarter minutes as well. Vaughn will play 10-14 minutes each night, I think, with Parker getting the other 34-38 minutes. That's not an unusual minute distribution for Pop at playoff time -- even when he had Speedy Claxton to back-up a young Tony Parker in 2003, Pop played Parker 34 mpg and Claxton about 14 mpg.
Finley will undoubtedly remain a part of the rotation, but his minutes should decline from last year's series with Dallas. Horry will nominally be in the rotation, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Pop used Bonner to offset matchup problems.
That leaves at least this:
Elson
Duncan
Bowen
Barry
Parker
Ginobili
Vaughn
Finley
Horry/Bonner
A 9-man rotation without considering Bonner as a stand-alone from Horry and without considering Oberto.
Obviously, Parker and Duncan are going to get heavy minutes, if they're healthy. In big series, Duncan is a 40+ mpg player (in '05 he played 40.7 against Detroit and 39.6 against Phoenix; in '04, he averaged 41.8 against LA; in '03, he averaged 43.8 against New Jersey, 43.3 against Dallas, and 40.3 against LA). If the question is production -- i.e., whether Tim can improve upon his gross production if his minutes are the same or slightly reduced, the answer is likely to be no. But, the idea for the Spurs (I think) is to mitigate the need to score by playing better defense in big spots by adding athleticism to the mix and having bigs on the floor who can better handle the new NBA style. That's why Elson and Bonner are here.
The main production point that Tim needs to replicate or improve is his rebounding number. And what the Spurs need, more than anything else, I think, is for someone (Elson, Horry, Bonner, Oberto) to add some rebounding punch on the defensive end.
Parker doesn't need 38+ mpg to be a 20 ppg scorer. In fact, I think Parker would prove to be a more effective player if he's only asked to play 34-36 minutes each night and his bench time is padded by mandatory timeouts.
As for the others, Manu is going to get 30-35 minutes every night, just as he did against Dallas last year. I do think, however, that if there is a Spur whose production is going to increase without a huge bump in minutes, it's Manu who will get that.
Barry and Finley will probably play in the 22-28 minute range -- already a huge difference from 2006 if Finley isn't made to play 37 mpg. If Vaughn gets 10 productive minutes, the Spurs are better off than they were last year as well.
