NYT: On Paper, Cavs Have Edge In Finals

Published today, obviously written before last night's game.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/03/sp...ref=basketball

By VINCENT M. MALLOZZI
Published: June 3, 2007

For years, N.B.A. coaches have tried to achieve optimum productivity from their players, tinkering and toying with various lineups. To find the most effective combinations of players on the court, coaches have played hunches, ridden hot streaks, gone by the book and against it, and searched as high as Yao Ming and as low as Muggsy Bogues for pieces to fit their hardwood puzzles.

Although there has never been a proven formula for winning, there is the Lenovo Stat, a plus-minus rating that shows which players as a group are most productive.

P. J. Carlesimo, an assistant coach with San Antonio, is a firm believer.

“I’ve always been a plus-minus guy,” said Carlesimo, whose Spurs will play Detroit or Cleveland in the N.B.A. finals beginning Thursday. “This particular statistic has been a great tool which has helped us tremendously all year.”

Carlesimo, who has coached the Trail Blazers and the Warriors and at Seton Hall, is well aware that the Lenovo Stat, which calculates point differentials during minutes played for one to five players, favors the Pistons and the Cavaliers over the Spurs in the finals.

Firm believer?

Well, maybe not that firm.

“This is a pretty important statistic, but it’s not the be-all, end-all,” Carlesimo said. “So you can’t overreact.”

The Lenovo Stat, which became accessible to coaches and fans this season at NBA.com, takes its name from the personal computer company that devised the algorithm on which it is based.

“Coaches have been requesting this kind of information for years,” said Steve Hellmuth, the senior vice president for operations and technology for N.B.A. Entertainment. “What’s brand new here is that coaches and fans now have access to this same information.”

A quick look online Friday showed that the Lenovo Stat ranked Detroit as having the best five-man combination in the playoffs, and Cleveland’s was fourth. San Antonio’s top unit was 14th.

During this postseason, the Pistons’ Chris Webber, Rasheed Wallace, Chauncey Billups, Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince have combined to score 503 points while allowing opponents 433 over 15 games, or 246 minutes 29 seconds, giving them a plus-70 rating.

Cleveland’s LeBron James, Anderson Varejao, Donyell Marshall, Daniel Gibson and Damon Jones have produced a plus-28 rating, having scored 81 points as a group while allowing 53.

The Spurs, proving that statistics can sometimes lie, are ranked below the Suns (fifth at plus-26) and the Jazz (seventh at plus-25), two teams the Spurs defeated on their way to the finals.

If Spurs fans are looking for a silver lining, it cannot be found anywhere beneath a dark statistical cloud that seems to favor the Pistons’ winning the championship. Detroit, according to the Lenovo Stat, has the top four-man (Wallace, Billups, Hamilton and Prince, plus-120), three-man (Wallace, Billups and Prince, plus-154), two-man (Billups and Prince, plus-155) and one-man (Billups, plus-120) units in the postseason. {and yet, a team that looked like sh*t in losing four straight to the Cavs, showing that stats don't measure heart or desire yet.}

“In the playoffs, rotations become a little tighter because the games are more meaningful, so the numbers can get a little skewed,” Carlesimo said. “You’re less apt to trust rookies or guys who haven’t played big minutes during the regular season.

“There are other factors that come into play, like blowout victories or garbage time, especially in a smaller amount of games played in the postseason. That’s why I like to look at these numbers over an 82-game season. It gives you a better read.”

Charles Klask, an advance scout for the Orlando Magic, said that while he understood that the Lenovo Stat was not an exact science, “its plus-minus rating allows me to see if there are any irregularities in a team’s rotation.”

“It’s a great tool that can be used by both sides in late-game situations,” Klask added. “If a team needs a score and maybe foul trouble or other factors have prevented them from having their best team out there, they know who their next-best lineup is, or their best duo.”

Klask said Paul Millsap, a top Utah bench player, stood out whenever he was studying the Lenovo Stat. “He’s not the focal point of their offense, he doesn’t score a lot, but he is always a part of two or three of Utah’s best lineups,” Klask said. “As a scout, I would let players know before a game to pay more attention to a player like that.”

Carlesimo, who looks over Lenovo statistics after each game, said the numbers “definitely tell you something.”

“Pop sometimes asks about it,” he said, referring to Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich. “It’s not brain surgery, but it’s a piece of the puzzle. A good piece.”

God, I hope Cleveland buys into this shit.

:lmao

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CubanMustGo

A quick look online Friday showed that the Lenovo Stat ranked Detroit as having the best five-man combination in the playoffs, and Cleveland’s was fourth. San Antonio’s top unit was 14th.

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Negates the whole article.

fnck...I felt pretty sure about calling the Cavs victory until the NYT got my back...

I may have to reconsider. Because the next time the NYT prints something that is accurate, will be the first.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by exstatic

God, I hope Cleveland buys into this shit.

:lmao

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Maybe Mike Brown will call Pop to find out what he thinks. :lol

NYT ain't worth shit nowadays. What a rotten, horrible, stupid article. It's barely even readable.

'Sides, nothing for the Spurs bringing their (second)/(third) best player off the bench?

Here's the link if you want to look at them.

http://www.nba.com/lenovostat/

Anyone or anything can have an edge on paper :rolleyes

i may be wrong, but i swear the computer that brokedown during the game last night was called lenovo.

Quote:

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Klask said Paul Millsap, a top Utah bench player, stood out whenever he was studying the Lenovo Stat. “He’s not the focal point of their offense, he doesn’t score a lot, but he is always a part of two or three of Utah’s best lineups,” Klask said. “As a scout, I would let players know before a game to pay more attention to a player like that.”

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:lmao
A scout need to study lenovo stats to realize that Millsap is a good player ?

Even me, who is an average BB fan, can see that he is good only by watching a game.

my printer paper also has an edge.....( i got me a paper cut to pruuf it)

First of all, it's good to have confirmation that the Spurs look at plus/minus numbers. I've grown to like the stat more and more over the years. It's not a stat that can tell you the whole story, but it's good indicator that you can use as part of the puzzle.

That said, I've never in my life heard about using 5-man plus/minus units as a way to do power rankings or figure out which team is better. That's the dumbest crap I've ever heard. :lmao

I had to read the article a couple times to make sure they were stupid enough to actually think that.

Amazing.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by timvp

First of all, it's good to have confirmation that the Spurs look at plus/minus numbers. I've grown to like the stat more and more over the years. It's not a stat that can tell you the whole story, but it's good indicator that you can use as part of the puzzle.

That said, I've never in my life heard about using 5-man plus/minus units as a way to do power rankings or figure out which team is better. That's the dumbest crap I've ever heard. :lmao

I had to read the article a couple times to make sure they were stupid enough to actually think that.

Amazing.

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why's it so dumb?

Utterly misguided use for the Lenovo stat. It simply can't be used for the purpose of comparing units on different teams. If the results in this year's playoffs aren't enough to convince you, I'll be glad to go into a long boring explanation.

I would hope that no NBA coach (or assistant) is really trying to use it that way. If they are, I've found my next consulting gig.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by td4mvp3

why's it so dumb?

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Well, for one thing, Cleveland compiled its playoff statistics in the Eastern Conference.

This is the problem with statistics, if you find one bogus underlying assumption, the whole thing goes up in smoke.

So we are boring even in Stats? :wakeup

This article added a new reason to hate maths :p:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by WalterBenitez

So we are boring even in Stats? :wakeup

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Every stat except wins, I guess. :rolleyes :D

I do like Milsap.

I wonder what the Spurs' plus minus would have been if they'd played Washington instead of Denver or New Jersey instead of Phoenix.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

I wonder what the Spurs' plus minus would have been if they'd played Washington instead of Denver or New Jersey instead of Phoenix.

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Werd. The Wiz were DOA.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Obstructed_View

I wonder what the Spurs' plus minus would have been if they'd played Washington instead of Denver or New Jersey instead of Phoenix.

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Your view doesn't seem obstructed to me.

Dead on, rather. :D

Quote:

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Originally Posted by timvp

First of all, it's good to have confirmation that the Spurs look at plus/minus numbers. I've grown to like the stat more and more over the years. It's not a stat that can tell you the whole story, but it's good indicator that you can use as part of the puzzle.

That said, I've never in my life heard about using 5-man plus/minus units as a way to do power rankings or figure out which team is better. That's the dumbest crap I've ever heard. :lmao

I had to read the article a couple times to make sure they were stupid enough to actually think that.

Amazing.

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Exactly! It's an INTRA-team stat, not an INTER-team stat. It helps you work out who works best together ON YOUR TEAM. What a freakin ridiculously stupid article. :wtf :lmao

That said, you have to be careful even using it like that. If you have a starter who plays with the scrubs in garbage time, you have to take that into account as well. I haven't really seen any evidence that plus minus is anything other than a tool to support flawed basketball arguments, but that's mainly because of its use around here.

I gotta agree with this. I don't see how we can win. Too bad we don't have a superstar like King James.

Fairly irrelevant given the differences in opponents during the playoffs for the two teams. One hopes it is Mike Brown calling the shots in Cleveland and not Egan.