Colb's Finals Analysis and Prediction

Here's my initial take on the 2007 NBA Finals, and the matchups it presents between the two Contenders, the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers:


Point Guard

Tony Parker vs. Larry Hughes

Parker's superb speed and Hughes' torn up foot should play a HUGE part in this series. In my opinion, this will be where the Spurs win their 4th Championship in the last 7 years. Now, some will argue that Tim Duncan will have the largest effect on the series' outcome, yet after watching him in Game 4 and 5 versus Utah, you can see he can be frustrated with a little physicality, and that's something Cleveland has.

Tony needs to really exploit his defender, the way he attacked Deron Williams in the deciding game of the Western Conference Finals, while Williams seemed a little hobbled. If he does that, this series could be over quickly.

Advantage: Spurs.

Shooting Guard

Michael Finley vs. Sasha Pavlovic

Assuming Pop doesn't switch up his lineup at all, I'll just keep Finley in here. These two players have played some pretty good ball in the playoffs for their respective teams, and they seem to share the same role. Sasha has earned his spot on his team thanks to his vastly improving defense over the year, and his superb shooting stroke. Finley earned his starting spot in the middle of the regular season while Manu Ginobli was struggling, and brings a veteran presence and a stingy defender to the court, not that the Spurs need another of either. Finley does have an advantage in experience, a large one, however. He will show tons of composure and the Spurs surely will not lose a step when Manu replaces him midway through the 1st quarter, as he usually does. The Cavs will send in the likes of a Daniel Gibson to replace Pavlovic, or move Hughes to the 2 for another look, and I still like the Finley/Manu combo over anything the Cavs can toss out at the off-guard position.

Advantage: Spurs.

Small Forward

Bruce Bowen vs. LeBron James

This will be quite entertaining. While it does not warrant a mention, Bruce Bowen is widely known to be the best perimeter defender in the league, and LeBron is obviously becoming a superduperstar, and just may be the best player in the league. Despite Bowen's defensive abilities, he seemed to struggle to contain Utah's Deron Williams in the Spurs' WCF victory, and I don't see him stopping LeBron at all. However, his veteran savvy and perhaps 'dirty' style of defense, for lack of a better word, could get to James' 22 year-old mind. He is, after all, a rookie when it comes to the Finals, as is the entire Cavs organization. I know you've heard enough from LeBron this far into his career, but he is playing out of his mind after being called out early in the Eastern Finals, and I don't see anybody stopping him from getting to the rim, and to the line.

Advantage: Cavs.

Power Forward

Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden

This one doesn't require too much thought at all. Tim is, in my opinion, still the best player in the game, although the aforementioned James is not exactly sneaking up on him, but coming at him like a freight train. With that said, Duncan has the chance to run that train right off the tracks if he takes advantage of the shorter, weaker, younger Gooden, which should be no problem. If Duncan gets back to facing the basket, making quick, decisive moves, and hitting that patented mid-range bank shot regularly, this matchup could be ugly and Duncan could have his 4th Finals MVP award here in a couple weeks, launching him further into greatness, and reminding everyone again that he is one of the greatest players of all-time.

The only problem I could see for TD in this series is the youngster Anderson Varejao. His superior athleticism is very unique for his size, and he brings ton of energy off of the bench. He could cause some problems for Duncan, and possible get him into foul trouble, thanks to that energy and his unmatched flopping skills.

Advantage: Spurs.

Center

Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Fabricio Oberto

Ziggy has been an All-Star, and has been rebounding very well lately, especially on the offensive end, where the Cavs are the best in the league at pulling down boards. Fabricio showed that he could expose bad defenders with his witty cuts and athletic finishes, and while Ilgauskas isn't exactly Marcus Camby, he has a condor-esque wingspan and is 7'3", so he won't finish as easily as he did against a guy like Carlos Boozer. Oberto will get outrebounded, but not outhustled, and I think he could give Big Z fits.

With all that said, I think Ilgauskas will hover around a double-double in each game, while Oberto will bring his usual energy to his team, but Z's contribution is much more important to his team, so it's vital to the Cavs for him to play well and alter some shots, which I think he can do.

Advantage: Push.

San Antonio shows all the signs of winning the championship this year, as I have been saying since about March. They are peaking at the perfect time, have not gone into a Game 7 yet (and only one Game 6), they've won on the road, and breezed into the Finals, and are easily the best team in the league (whether Suns fans will admit it or not). They are playing much too well right now to be stopped. Gregg Popovich will completely outcoach Mike Brown, hell, he outcoached Jerry Sloan, Mike D'Antoni, and George Karl to get here, and Mike Brown is not exactly on their level.

The Spurs will take Games 1 & 2 at home, and Games 3 & 4 in Cleveland. I predict a swift, painless sweep, and I'm not sure how anybody thinks the Cavs have a chance. I believe LeBron gives them a chance at a couple games, thanks to maybe a Wade-type treatment, but I think the difference is so vast between the teams that it wouldn't effect the outcome of the series, just the amount of games it takes for the Spurs to slide another ring on their fingers.

And to top it all off, everyone is talking about LeBron and the Cavs and ignoring the Spurs. Like they need the motivation.


---Corn

Nicely done.

Spurs in 6.
Duncan MVP.

I'm glad you stuck around, Corn.

Your take is an interesting one...I only disagree about the sweep prediction. The Spurs tend to have letdown games for whatever reason, and I don't think this series will be any different. I'd love it if you're right though!

I think this one could go 6.
It's time to pick an MVP as well, and I'll go with Duncan. I think, as long as he's on this team, he will always be the MVP.

:flag:

NIce work ... and you forgot Manu :p:

I guess I did space off Manu and my MVP prediction.

I would have to think that Manu has more effect than Finley in the series, giving that nobody, not even Eric Snow, the Cavs best perimeter defender, can stop him from getting into the paint. The backcourt matchups pose huge problems for Cleveland, problems from which I don't think they can recover.

As for the MVP, as long as Duncan is on the team, you'd think he'd get the MVP, even if he didn't necessarily deserve it during the series, a la Peyton Manning in Super Bowl 41. My sleeper pick is Tony Parker, or if the NBA wanted to go even more insane over him, LeBron James. :D

I don't want to jinx the SPURS but ending this swiftly is about right. PARTY ON THE RIVER around the 16th of JUNE!

Any feedback on this article maybe grammar wise, where I could improve, etc.

I really want to get into sports journalism, so I want to see where I can improve.

Thanks guys!

yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

finley went to ther starting line up because he was struggling ..that's how i remember it .
ggggggggggg

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Originally Posted by powerpower

yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh

finley went to ther starting line up because he was struggling ..that's how i remember it .
ggggggggggg

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Huh?

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

I guess I did space off Manu and my MVP prediction.

I would have to think that Manu has more effect than Finley in the series, giving that nobody, not even Eric Snow, the Cavs best perimeter defender, can stop him from getting into the paint. The backcourt matchups pose huge problems for Cleveland, problems from which I don't think they can recover.

As for the MVP, as long as Duncan is on the team, you'd think he'd get the MVP, even if he didn't necessarily deserve it during the series, a la Peyton Manning in Super Bowl 41. My sleeper pick is Tony Parker, or if the NBA wanted to go even more insane over him, LeBron James. :D

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Manu is Manu, in Go wild mode he got many trophys around the world ... in suck mode he is terrible. :music

MVP will go to TD or LBJ is terms of Mr Stern bu$ine$$ perspective, since 2005 when dangerously Manu got close to TD. :rolleyes

Objectivisly (if that word exists in english :D) I think TD healthy is an obvious choice.

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Originally Posted by WalterBenitez

Manu is Manu, in Go wild mode he got many trophys around the world ... in suck mode he is terrible. :music

MVP will go to TD or LBJ is terms of Mr Stern bu$ine$$ perspective, since 2005 when dangerously Manu got close to TD. :rolleyes

Objectivisly (if that word exists in english :D) I think TD healthy is an obvious choice.

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I agree! :D

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

Huh?

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Fin went into the starting lineup because the team was struggling, with the bench looking particularly horrible. Moving Manu to the bench gave it a needed spark, and allowed Fin to get hot.

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Originally Posted by sprrs

Fin went into the starting lineup because the team was struggling, with the bench looking particularly horrible. Moving Manu to the bench gave it a needed spark, and allowed Fin to get hot.

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Ah, well I saw a rise in Manu's numbers, and it seemed to me, prior his 'benching', that he wasn't playing like Manu usually does.

So was he playing well? Better than he usually does? Or was he, along with the Spurs, struggling?

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

Ah, well I saw a rise in Manu's numbers, and it seemed to me, prior his 'benching', that he wasn't playing like Manu usually does.

So was he playing well? Better than he usually does? Or was he, along with the Spurs, struggling?

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Well he was playing decent, but I suppose the move to the bench bumped up his stats because he wasn't on the floor with Tony and Tim, who took a fair share of the posessions away. Playing with the second unit made him more of a focal point for the offense.

nice job, and as a Spurs' homer, I enjoyed its slant. You asked for grammatical corrections, so I'll let it fly.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

Here's my initial take on the 2007 NBA Finals, and the matchups it presents between the two Contenders, the San Antonio Spurs and the Cleveland Cavaliers:


Point Guard

Tony Parker vs. Larry Hughes

Parker's superb speed and Hughes' torn up foot should play a HUGE part in this series. In my opinion, this will be where the Spurs win their 4th Championship in the last 7 years. Now, some will argue that Tim Duncan will have the largest effect on the series' outcome, yet after watching him in Game 4 and 5 versus Utah, you can see he can be frustrated with a little physicality, and that's something Cleveland has.
[run on sentence--reword]

Tony needs to really exploit his defender, the way he attacked Deron Williams in the deciding game of the Western Conference Finals, while Williams seemed a little hobbled. If he does that, this series could be over quickly.

Advantage: Spurs.

Shooting Guard

Michael Finley vs. Sasha Pavlovic

Assuming Pop doesn't switch up his lineup at all, I'll just keep Finley in here. These two players have played some pretty good ball in the playoffs for their respective teams, and they seem to share the same role. Sasha has earned his spot on his team thanks to his vastly improving defense over the year, and his superb shooting stroke. Finley earned his starting spot in the middle of the regular season while Manu Ginobli was struggling, and brings a veteran presence and a stingy defender to the court, not that the Spurs need another of either. [verging on another run-on]Finley does have an advantage in experience, a large one, however. [I would say: Finely does have an advantage in experience, however--a large one.] He will show tons of composure and the Spurs surely will not lose a step when Manu replaces him midway through the 1st quarter, as he usually does. The Cavs will send in the likes of a Daniel Gibson to replace Pavlovic, or move Hughes to the 2 for another look, and I still like the Finley/Manu combo over anything the Cavs can toss out at the off-guard position.

Advantage: Spurs.

Small Forward

Bruce Bowen vs. LeBron James

This will be quite entertaining. While it does not warrant a mention,[If it doesn't warrant a mention, then why mention--illogical] Bruce Bowen is widely known to be the best perimeter defender in the league, and LeBron is obviously becoming a superduperstar, and just may be the best player in the league. Despite Bowen's defensive abilities, he seemed to struggle to contain Utah's Deron Williams in the Spurs' WCF victory, and I don't see him stopping LeBron at all. However, his veteran savvy and perhaps 'dirty' style of defense, for lack of a better word, could get to James' 22 year-old mind. He is, after all, a rookie when it comes to the Finals, as is the entire Cavs organization. I know you've heard enough from LeBron this far into his career, but he is playing out of his mind after being called out early in the Eastern Finals, and I don't see anybody stopping him from getting to the rim, and to the line.
[sometimes you're falling into the pattern of using the same rhythm for each sentence here]
Advantage: Cavs.

Power Forward

Tim Duncan vs. Drew Gooden

This one doesn't require too much thought at all. Tim is, in my opinion, still the best player in the game, although the aforementioned James is not exactly sneaking up on him, but coming at him like a freight train. With that said, Duncan has the chance to run that train right off the tracks if he takes advantage of the shorter, weaker, younger Gooden, which should be no problem. If Duncan gets back to facing the basket, making quick, decisive moves, and hitting that patented mid-range bank shot regularly, this matchup could be ugly and Duncan could have his 4th Finals MVP award here in a couple weeks, launching him further into greatness, and reminding everyone again that he is one of the greatest players of all-time.

The only problem I could see for TD in this series is the youngster Anderson Varejao. His superior athleticism is very unique for his size, and he brings ton of energy off of the bench. He could cause some problems for Duncan, and possible[possibly] get him into foul trouble, thanks to that energy and his unmatched flopping skills.["very unique" is redundant. In general, the word "very" tends to dilute the power of the word it modifies, rather than its intended focusing effect]

Advantage: Spurs.

Center

Zydrunas Ilgauskas vs. Fabricio Oberto

Ziggy has been an All-Star, and has been rebounding very well lately, especially on the offensive end, where the Cavs are the best in the league at pulling down boards. Fabricio showed that he could expose bad defenders with his witty cuts and athletic finishes, and while Ilgauskas isn't exactly Marcus Camby, he has a condor-esque wingspan and is 7'3", so he won't finish as easily as he did against a guy like Carlos Boozer. Oberto will get outrebounded, but not outhustled, and I think he could give Big Z fits.

With all that said, I think Ilgauskas will hover around a double-double in each game, while Oberto will bring his usual energy to his team, but Z's contribution is much more important to his team, so it's vital to the Cavs for him to play well and alter some shots, which I think he can do. [run on]

Advantage: Push.

San Antonio shows all the signs of winning the championship this year, as I have been saying since about March. They are peaking at the perfect time, have not gone into a Game 7 yet (and only one Game 6), they've won on the road, and breezed into the Finals, and are easily the best team in the league (whether Suns fans will admit it or not). They are playing much too well right now to be stopped. Gregg Popovich will completely outcoach Mike Brown, hell, he outcoached Jerry Sloan, Mike D'Antoni, and George Karl to get here, and Mike Brown is not exactly on their level.

The Spurs will take Games 1 & 2 at home, and Games 3 & 4 in Cleveland. I predict a swift, painless sweep, and I'm not sure how anybody thinks the Cavs have a chance. I believe LeBron gives them a chance at a couple games, thanks to maybe a Wade-type treatment, but I think the difference is so vast between the teams that it wouldn't effect the outcome of the series, just the amount of games it takes for the Spurs to slide another ring on their fingers.

And to top it all off, everyone is talking about LeBron and the Cavs and ignoring the Spurs. Like they need the motivation.


---Corn

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[Corn, you have a lot of information but try to pack it into too few sentences. I would go over your stuff and look for clarity and cut out fat. Pretend "you" are paying by the word, like a telegram :). I would especially be careful about run-on sentences. They undermine your credibility, even in this colloquial style. I hope I didn't throw too much stuff at you! Good job and I wish you success in your dream!]

Corn, that was a terrific breakdown. Great job!

Since when is Larry Hughes a point guard?

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Originally Posted by michaelwcho

nice job, and as a Spurs' homer, I enjoyed its slant. You asked for grammatical corrections, so I'll let it fly.

[Corn, you have a lot of information but try to pack it into too few sentences. I would go over your stuff and look for clarity and cut out fat. Pretend "you" are paying by the word, like a telegram :). I would especially be careful about run-on sentences. They undermine your credibility, even in this colloquial style. I hope I didn't throw too much stuff at you! Good job and I wish you success in your dream!]

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Come on Michaelcho, leave Corn alone, you sound like my english teacher :p:

Great preview Corn! I think the Spurs will have to beware of how Cleveland uglies-up the game in the interior, particularly when Timmy posts-up. They will also pack it in on Parker's and Gino's drives. If the Spurs can get Z and/or Varejao into foul trouble, the Red Sea will part for them and the points in the paint will be high.

If the Spurs try to plod along with the Cavs, I think it will be a mistake. The Spurs can run them out of the gym if they keep the motion flowing. Misdirection is the Spurs' friend...particularly with one of Pop's mentors, Hank Egan, assisting with strategy.

LeBron James is too strong for Bowen and there is no way Bruce can defend him without help. The Spurs will have to double James hard from different places, always mixing it up. When James goes baseline, the help defender had better do so quickly because LeBron is one of the best at getting to the rim and they know the Spurs want to send players baseline.

Hopefully Elson and Oberto can learn in practice this week how to plant their feet outside the dotted line. As a fan, I'm a bit concerned about that.

Spurs in 6

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Originally Posted by michaelwcho

nice job, and as a Spurs' homer, I enjoyed its slant. You asked for grammatical corrections, so I'll let it fly.

[Corn, you have a lot of information but try to pack it into too few sentences. I would go over your stuff and look for clarity and cut out fat. Pretend "you" are paying by the word, like a telegram :). I would especially be careful about run-on sentences. They undermine your credibility, even in this colloquial style. I hope I didn't throw too much stuff at you! Good job and I wish you success in your dream!]

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And you should have probably pointed out that he spelled Ginobili wrong. :)

Corn, private message me if you have any interest in submitting articles to me for use on WOAI.com.

Corn, nice work.

You missed one obvious point in assessing it a sweep though - superstars win games on their will alone. You will very rarely see a team with a true superstar swept, because they will win at least one game ON THEIR OWN. I think LeBron will win 2 here, because he'll get all the calls and he just went to another level with the 48pt game.

That being said, the Spurs are playing consummate team basketball and outmatch the Cavs, especially the bench. That has been a feature of our guys all playoffs - our bench has been far superior to any bench we've faced, and Pop uses them well. A number of games have been blown open (or the lead maintained) in the late 3rd Q with a lineup of Oberto-Horry-Bowen-Manu-Vaughn, or even Finley for Horry or Bowen!

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Originally Posted by michaelwcho

nice job, and as a Spurs' homer, I enjoyed its slant. You asked for grammatical corrections, so I'll let it fly.

[Corn, you have a lot of information but try to pack it into too few sentences. I would go over your stuff and look for clarity and cut out fat. Pretend "you" are paying by the word, like a telegram :). I would especially be careful about run-on sentences. They undermine your credibility, even in this colloquial style. I hope I didn't throw too much stuff at you! Good job and I wish you success in your dream!]

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Thank you very much man. I really appreciate it.

After re-reading it, I understand what you mean by using the same rhythm for sentences and running on. In my defense, I just kind of threw it together, you're kind of like the editor in this process, and that was definitely a rough draft. You didn't throw too much at me, I left too much stuff to be thrown! So again, thanks, I really appreciate it.

And Kori, G-I-N-O-B-I-L-I. There we go. Can't believe I messed that one up! :D

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

Fabricio ...athletic finishes

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:lmao :lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao
:lmao

Nice write up Corn.

Just one question: What happens during a witty cut? Does he shout "En garde!" or "Have at thee, you knave!" during each cut?

I actually imagine he smiles sardonically, then laughs very gentlemanly after he scores. :p:

IMHO, Spurs advantage at the starting SG spot is not a decisive, undebatable argument in my book. And i think Ilgauskas has quite pronounce advantage compared to Oberto, atleast offensively.

Having said that, i don't think the series will go past 6 games, with the Spurs coming out on top. ;)

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

The Spurs will take Games 1 & 2 at home, and Games 3 & 4 in Cleveland. I predict a swift, painless sweep, and I'm not sure how anybody thinks the Cavs have a chance. I believe LeBron gives them a chance at a couple games, thanks to maybe a Wade-type treatment, but I think the difference is so vast between the teams that it wouldn't effect the outcome of the series, just the amount of games it takes for the Spurs to slide another ring on their fingers.

And to top it all off, everyone is talking about LeBron and the Cavs and ignoring the Spurs. Like they need the motivation.


---Corn

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The Cavs are a good defensive team and LeBron is playing at a high level right now, so they have a "chance" at taking this series. Don't be so dismissive and arrogant. That said, the Spurs have more experience, the Cavs have absolutely no answer for Duncan, and the Spurs have that killer instinct and poise that Detroit lacks. Spurs in six.

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Originally Posted by L.I.T

Nice write up Corn.

Just one question: What happens during a witty cut? Does he shout "En garde!" or "Have at thee, you knave!" during each cut?

I actually imagine he smiles sardonically, then laughs very gentlemanly after he scores. :p:

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I'm not sure why I used 'witty,' I was trying to say he always was cutting at the perfect moments, maybe I should have said 'timely.' Not witty. :D

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Originally Posted by Corn on the Colb

I'm not sure why I used 'witty,' I was trying to say he always was cutting at the perfect moments, maybe I should have said 'timely.' Not witty. :D

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Witty was good, I thought. It's distinctive... IMO you don't want to try to be like everyone else. In other words, be careful about saying things like "flat-out", "chippy", "this young team is growing up in front of our eyes!" Freshness is so rare nowadays...

Bump.

Not to toot my own horn, but I totally called it. :D

I like the Great Cornholio and her takes. If she weren't a Jazz fan, I'd ask her to marry me. But, being Mormon, she probably wouldn't talk to me to begin with.

Dude... it's not a girl.

Shut up buttmunch, it's a chick.