Rising Suns??? Hollinger ESPN

Rising Suns???

Just gonna throw this out there …

John Hollinger ESPN

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playof...rprises-080428

All 83 times that a team has taken a 3-0 lead in an NBA best-of-seven playoff series, it has gone on to win the series.

But somebody is going to be the first to buck the trend. It happened for the first time in baseball with the Red Sox a few years ago, and inevitably it will happen in basketball, too.

And when would it happen? Most likely with a team that's basically as good as its opponent. That's a rarity in most of the series that started 3-0 -- but not in the Suns-Spurs series. The two teams finished only a game apart in the regular season, the Suns finished ahead in my power rankings, the scoring margin after four games is only five points, and the series would be even if not for the aforementioned Phoenix blunder at the end of Game 1.

I don't want to make too much out of this -- even if you presume the teams are dead-even and give the home team a three-point advantage each night, the fact that the Spurs have two home games in the final three and need to prevail only once adds up to a 94 percent chance they'll win the series. Most likely, San Antonio will be in the conference semifinals.

But this is one of the rare cases in which the team down 3-0 does still have a genuine chance of winning the series.

And if it happened, that would provide the ultimate surprise of this first round.

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.

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This media love for the Suns never gonna end.

Until...

Haha what has happened with Hollinger? Last year he loved the Spurs. This year he doesn't. Rooting for the underdog?

He's not really saying anything anti-Spurs, just that if it's ever gonna happen, this is as likely an instance as any other.

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Originally Posted by bdictjames

Haha what has happened with Hollinger? Last year he loved the Spurs. This year he doesn't. Rooting for the underdog?

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he actually picked the suns before the series started, he's drinking the phx koolaid, what do they put in that water? they see mirage's of a good team, thats about it, all smoke screens , suns are posers, media darlings, nothing more, they don't respond when it counts.

A team will lose a few games in the playoffs. No need to panic. Wish we would have taken care of business in PHX but since we didnt, we need to win Tuesday. Get an early lead and keep it. Play defense and dont let them back in the game. Thats it.

come on, aint you guys a little scared?

stfu, pencil-pusher.

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Originally Posted by Str8Ballin

come on, aint you guys a little scared?

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I would give you a serious answer if you didn't have that ridiculous picture.

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Originally Posted by Str8Ballin

come on, aint you guys a little scared?

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even if we go to a game 7, which will not happen because Spurs will take care of business as usual tomorrow night, even at game 7 i would not be scared. I mean, it's the Suns come on.

come on man that pictures funny as hell.

He just doesn't know what to write about this morning.

I'm not scared at all. I'm not even worried.

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Originally Posted by Findog

He's not really saying anything anti-Spurs, just that if it's ever gonna happen, this is as likely an instance as any other.

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this is more of an article that if it does happen he can say he was the first tojump on that wagon, it's pretty smart for an idiot actually

his first error is the the Suns are as good as the Spurs. They're not.

I'm scared. Scared that the Suns can win three in a row, push the series to seven and save D'Antoni's job by almost doing the impossible.

Screw that. If D'Antoni's fired with a Suns loss, then it's a necessary evil.

There's got to be a reason Carlisle hasn't taken a job yet, right?

Until the Spurs win 4 games, it remains possible that the Suns will win 4 games first. At this point, the Suns are in actuality the most likely team in NBA history to come back from down 3-0. All of the past teams in this position have failed and the '08 Nuggets haven't yet won a game in their series to make it slightly more possible that they could rally to win. So, in some sort of absolutist terms, the Suns are, in this moment, the most likely team in NBA history to come back to win after being down 3-0.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

Until the Spurs win 4 games, it remains possible that the Suns will win 4 games first. At this point, the Suns are in actuality the most likely team in NBA history to come back from down 3-0. All of the past teams in this position have failed and the '08 Nuggets haven't yet won a game in their series to make it slightly more possible that they could rally to win. So, in some sort of absolutist terms, the Suns are, in this moment, the most likely team in NBA history to come back to win after being down 3-0.

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not really, against the defending camps? one of the greatest teams in sports history, and one of the greatest coaches in NBA history? i dont think so. yea its good to be cautious, but lets be realistic. the better team always wins a 7 game series.

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Originally Posted by xtremesteven33

not really, against the defending camps? one of the greatest teams in sports history, and one of the greatest coaches in NBA history? i dont think so. yea its good to be cautious, but lets be realistic. the better team always wins a 7 game series.

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He's speaking in technicalities, not reality. Since no one else ever has, and since the other 3-0 team hasn't won a game yet, the Suns are currently the stastically most likely.

The likelihood is very slim, but FWD was merely pointing out that technically, the Suns have the best shot at the moment.

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Originally Posted by xtremesteven33

not really, against the defending camps? one of the greatest teams in sports history, and one of the greatest coaches in NBA history? i dont think so. yea its good to be cautious, but lets be realistic. the better team always wins a 7 game series.

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I think you missed my point. In all of time, there have been 85 teams that have gone down 3-0 in a playoff series. At this moment, there are only 2 teams that have a chance to come back from down 3-0 and win a series -- the 2008 Suns and the 2008 Nuggets. Of those 2, the most likely to come back and win is the Suns, if only because they've already managed to win one of the games necessary to complete such a comeback. As such, the 2008 Suns are the team most likely, in all of NBA history, to rally from down 0-3 to win a series. That's not saying that they will do it; but for now, they have a better chance than the 83 teams who've already failed and they have a better chance than the Nuggets team that has not yet won a game in its series.

I think he has nothing else to write about. Or, he's hoping for another game to be on ESPN/ABC. Who knows what that was all about?

It's a remote possibility but the possibility is there nonetheless. I think it's ridiculous that a team down 0-3 could come back.

What worries me the most is:
1) The Suns have come back for 0-2 and 1-3 so we know they're resilient
2) They should have won Game 1 OR
2a) They should have won Game 2
4) But instead they discombobulated on themselves when the Spurs applied pressure

Odds say that the Suns are due to win a game in San Antonio in Game 5. And if they win in San Antonio, does that give them an automatic win in Phoenix in Game 6? They should have the odds to win in Phoenix being the home team and already losing 1 badly there.

That places Game #7 in the air, Phoenix would no longer have the odds to win in San Antonio.

So I would say series odds are now in favor of a 7 game series with San Antonio winning in game #7.

If the Suns played anything that resembled defense, then I'd be worried.

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Originally Posted by DarrinS

If the Suns played anything that resembled defense, then I'd be worried.

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Game 4, 1st Q
Spurs 13
Suns 34

That resembles defense.

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Originally Posted by All Seeing Eye

Game 4, 1st Q
Spurs 13
Suns 34

That resembles defense.

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I think the rim was your best defender in that game.

If Tony, Tim, and Manu are benched in the 3rd quarter of each game and the Suns have 30 points leads in those games, then the Sons have a very good shot at the series.

Hollinger is a stat geek if the numbers favor the team ...then he is all for them. he predicts Utah vs. Boston in NBA Finals ...nuff said. Boston I see ... but Utah?!

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Originally Posted by DarrinS

I think the rim was your best defender in that game.

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Ha ha. The old "they just weren't hitting their shots" gambit.

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Originally Posted by All Seeing Eye

Game 4, 1st Q
Spurs 13
Suns 34

That resembles defense.

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So the Suns win one quarter by double figures in the entire series and now they play defense? Maybe you're right. Maybe they finally figured it out. Or, maybe, just like they always have, the Suns put it all together for one game.

Guess we'll see.

I'm so torn. I can't bring myself to root against the Suns, but I want D'Antoni gone.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

2) They should have won Game 1
3) They should have won Game 2

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should have... would have... could have...

truth is they didn't and Spurs found a way to win the games. that's what champions do

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Originally Posted by Killakobe81

Hollinger is a stat geek if the numbers favor the team ...then he is all for them. he predicts Utah vs. Boston in NBA Finals ...nuff said. Boston I see ... but Utah?!

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Why not Utah?

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Originally Posted by JMarkJohns

Why not Utah?

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Current series notwithstanding, I don't think the Jazz are good enough on the road to overcome that many home court disadvantages.

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Originally Posted by hater

should have... would have... could have...

truth is they didn't and Spurs found a way to win the games. that's what champions do

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Ah I know that, I'm just saying that's why the odds are in favor of them winning in Game 5. They should have won in SA already. But since they haven't their odds of winning in Game 5 are pretty high.

It's not the series odds, Spurs up 3-1 of course are favored to win. But Game #5 should have the Suns favored and #6 as well if it comes to it. #7 is where the Spurs will win it.

Vegas will probably have Phoenix winning on Tuesday...it's just numbers of course.

This is stupid. How are the defending champions and team up 3-1 becoming the media underdogs? This Playoff coverage is starting to feel like the Democratic presidential campaign.

It has been proven that at most, a manager in baseball impacts the entire season and postseason in MLB by + or - 5 games. Usually, this is more like + or - 3 games. In other words, it took over a century for it to happen in pro baseball, because very little affects the outcome, other than pure talent. This has a lot to do with the unique structure of baseball. Without free substitutions and given the limits of a pitching rotation, a manager can do very little to influence the ultimate outcome of a game.

My theory is simple. Coming back from an 0-3 deficit has happened twice already in the NHL, which does allow free substitution. By this rationale, coaching (at least assigning playing time) has a greater impact on the outcome of NHL games than MLB games. Therefore, winning four in a row becomes more probable, because factors other than the teams' raw talent enter into the picture.

The best analogy I can think of is comparing Poker to a game like Bridge or Spades. It's not just what you have, but how you use the trumps.

In this regard, the NBA is more like the NHL. Assuming my theory has any validity whatsoever, an NBA team will eventually win four in a row after getting in an 0-3 hole. HOWEVER, this assumes that the team down 0-3 is able to outcoach the dominant team or somehow use its "trumps" to a decisive advantage.

My answer: D'Antoni is not capable of the task. While Phoenix might have enough talent to pull it off, it will not receive the necessary coaching or strategic advantage.

I knew an article like this was coming...

:rolleyes

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

I think you missed my point. In all of time, there have been 85 teams that have gone down 3-0 in a playoff series. At this moment, there are only 2 teams that have a chance to come back from down 3-0 and win a series -- the 2008 Suns and the 2008 Nuggets. Of those 2, the most likely to come back and win is the Suns, if only because they've already managed to win one of the games necessary to complete such a comeback. As such, the 2008 Suns are the team most likely, in all of NBA history, to rally from down 0-3 to win a series. That's not saying that they will do it; but for now, they have a better chance than the 83 teams who've already failed and they have a better chance than the Nuggets team that has not yet won a game in its series.

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I still think the 2007 Cavs have a better shot.

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Originally Posted by Kyle45

Current series notwithstanding, I don't think the Jazz are good enough on the road to overcome that many home court disadvantages.

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If you read Hollinger's article, he presents score after score that says the Jazz are capable of beating any team by any amount anywhere. They are a great home team, have good size, good depth and two proven scorers in Williams and Boozer. They have a coach who knows how to win, as well. They are a very complete team.

There biggest issue is playing down top the competition on occasion.

But this is a team that advanced to the Conference Finals last season. Some key players are now more experienced/skilled.

We'll have to see, but I don't think it's unreasonable at all to say Utah is a Finals caliber team or to expect them to advance there.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

Odds say that the Suns are due to win a game in San Antonio in Game 5. And if they win in San Antonio, does that give them an automatic win in Phoenix in Game 6? They should have the odds to win in Phoenix being the home team and already losing 1 badly there.

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Not that I'm interested in arguing or anything, but the Spurs will most likely win game 6, if there is one (IMO). They've done that sort of thing alot (close out on the road, and they got their "this is too easy, we're bored" blow out loss out of the way, espeically after a home loss).

Even if you aren't a believer in that, it's still absurd to say game 6 would be "automatic" for anyone.

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Originally Posted by Spurminator

I still think the 2007 Cavs have a better shot.

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If Nike ever finishes its conquest of the NBA, you may well be correct. Of course, by then 2007 will have been renamed "Year Zero"...

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Originally Posted by JMarkJohns

If you read Hollinger's article, he presents score after score that says the Jazz are capable of beating any team by any amount anywhere. They are a great home team, have good size, good depth and two proven scorers in Williams and Boozer. They have a coach who knows how to win, as well. They are a very complete team.

There biggest issue is playing down top the competition on occasion.

But this is a team that advanced to the Conference Finals last season. Some key players are now more experienced/skilled.

We'll have to see, but I don't think it's unreasonable at all to say Utah is a Finals caliber team or to expect them to advance there.

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I believe Utah has the talent to make the Finals, there's no question. Deron Williams is one of the top 3 point guards in the league, love his game. But for all the stats Hollinger throws out there, I feel this is the most telling:

17-24

Utah's road record through the regular season, no better than that of Dallas or Denver. They're damn near unbeatable at home, but considering they're the five seed they shouldn't get an opportunity to utilize that as a series advantage.

Starting to look like 2006, kids. Spurs take a game off, Pop decides to mess with the rotation. If Horry's ahead of Oberto in the rotation for the next game, be very afraid.

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Originally Posted by fyatuk

Not that I'm interested in arguing or anything, but the Spurs will most likely win game 6, if there is one (IMO). They've done that sort of thing alot (close out on the road, and they got their "this is too easy, we're bored" blow out loss out of the way, espeically after a home loss).

Even if you aren't a believer in that, it's still absurd to say game 6 would be "automatic" for anyone.

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My bad, I shouldn't have said *automatic*, I'm just saying they would have heavy odds to win Game 6 since San Antonio already won 1 in Phoenix.

The Spurs are of course heavy favorites to win the series being up 3-1. The length of the series is what's questionable. Just talking odds, the Suns have good odds to win #5 and great odds to win #6. But the Suns have very poor odds of winning #7.

Hollinger is all about stats, banking his whole basketball analysis on being able to predict the NBA champ from a complex equation basically boiling down to point differential on offense and defense.

According to his stats, the Spurs were the best team last year, and he banked on them winning all last year when others counted them out. This year, he's banked on the Celtics winning all year, and the Spurs have been ranked lower, based on all of the same statistical analysis.

He certainly has a personal motivation to see the Spurs fail: If they go on to win the championship, or even be the West champ, it pokes a serious hole in his theory.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

Ah I know that, I'm just saying that's why the odds are in favor of them winning in Game 5. They should have won in SA already. But since they haven't their odds of winning in Game 5 are pretty high.

It's not the series odds, Spurs up 3-1 of course are favored to win. But Game #5 should have the Suns favored and #6 as well if it comes to it. #7 is where the Spurs will win it.

Vegas will probably have Phoenix winning on Tuesday...it's just numbers of course.

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Then again, given that the Spurs are 163-33 (.832) at home since the start of the 2004-05 season (including playoffs) and 25-7 (.781) at home in playoff games during that time, it would seem possible that the Suns had their best chance to win a game in either Game 1 or 2 and missed it.

Ultimately, I don't think the chances of doing something in basketball aggregate over time. You're either better on a given night or you aren't, and that has very little to do with whether you've done something (such as winning in San Antonio) recently. I don't really think odds tend to "catch up" to good teams. Phoenix might win Game 5 -- hell, they might even win a Game 7 if it happens -- but it won't be because the odds are catching up to them. It will be because they play better than the Spurs do.

Hollinger looks like like the dude at the playground that would kidnap your kids if he got the chance.

He picked the Rockets to get out of the west back at the beginning of the season.

Just a weirdo who thinks he knows basketball and he doesn't.

People who think Suns are going to pull a Red Sox are stupid.

Just plain stupid

This article is as boring as the person who wrote it! :violin

He's right, out of all the teams, the Suns have the best chance. Van Gundy or someone threw it out there. Spurs won Game 4 pretty convincingly. Now say the Spurs come back and *knocks wood* get an injury to one of the Big 3, Suns have a revived chance of winning the next 3 to win because anything can happen from game to game.

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Originally Posted by 1Parker1

Van Gundy or someone threw it out there. Spurs won Game 4 pretty convincingly. Now say the Spurs come back and *knocks wood* get an injury to one of the Big 3, Suns have a revived chance of winning the next 3 to win because anything can happen from game to game.

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Yes, I think what he said was, let's say the Spurs lose one of their Big Three to injury in the first six minutes or so of Game 5. . . are you certain then that the Suns couldn't win four straight? Of course, part of their job as broadcasters is to keep casual viewers thinking there's a chance the so-far never been done can be-- and of course there is, but I'd say it's still pretty small.

a few tidbits from a Hollinger chat on ESPN.com

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Adriel Carolino (Cerritos, Ca): If the Suns do stretch the series a bit longer, do you think the Spurs have enough left in them to even get past New Orleans?


John Hollinger: (4:24 PM ET ) I like New Orleans in that series, but there's a good chance it goes seven.

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John Hollinger: (4:10 PM ET ) Is it really that complex? We should be 2-2 at this very moment. Obviously at 3-1 San Antonio will likely prevail, but I still say if you played this out 100 times it would go about 53-47 for Phoenix.

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Jack (Chicago): A lot of people are making a big deal about hack-a-shaq, do you really think it made that much of a difference in terms of the outcome of Spurs-Suns?


John Hollinger: (4:36 PM ET ) Pretty much changed Game 1, which pretty much changed the entire series. So I'd go with an emphatic yes.

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utah what the fuck!!!!!!
:flag::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::lobt2::flag:

I will say this about Hollinger's comment -- he certainly has a vested interest in Phoenix making a comeback in this series, given that his predictive models said before the series that the Suns would win and given that the accuracy of his predictive models are pretty much his bread-and-butter at this point.

If his model is correct, he's seen as more expert than others; if his model is proven to be shaky, his model-based opinions lose their carry a bit. It's easy to be right in mismatches; the validity of Hollinger's models is really a matter of how well it predicts closer matchups and this series would be among the closer matchups thus far in the playoffs. I have no doubt that somewhere, deep down inside, Hollinger is hoping for a Suns comeback -- if only to validate his model.

I'm not trying to suggest that Hollinger is actively rooting against the Spurs, but it stands to reason that he's looking for hope that he'll be proven right in the end.

Hollinger is the worst type of fake statistician. Making up fake stats is okay; he'll get some sheep to follow him. But now the rest of his existence revolves around him either mentioning his fake stats, making excuses for his fake stats or rooting for his fake stats to prove to be right.

He's getting worse and worse. I used to like him but now Hollinger has become so self-absorbed it's difficult to find any unbiased basketball opinion out of him.

Hollinger's model excludes emotion, heart, and experience - all things that factor much more heavily into the playoffs than the regular season. And he's too dumb to credit those factors, blindly saying "my numbers say x" no matter what.

Fuck a bunch of Hollinger. Spurs in 5. Book it.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

Then again, given that the Spurs are 163-33 (.832) at home since the start of the 2004-05 season (including playoffs) and 25-7 (.781) at home in playoff games during that time, it would seem possible that the Suns had their best chance to win a game in either Game 1 or 2 and missed it.

Ultimately, I don't think the chances of doing something in basketball aggregate over time. You're either better on a given night or you aren't, and that has very little to do with whether you've done something (such as winning in San Antonio) recently. I don't really think odds tend to "catch up" to good teams. Phoenix might win Game 5 -- hell, they might even win a Game 7 if it happens -- but it won't be because the odds are catching up to them. It will be because they play better than the Spurs do.

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Yes I can see your point, it's from a basketball point of view. It's hard to predict anything when it comes to humans.

Statistically speaking, only from a numbers perspective, there is no way the Spurs should have been up 3-0 but they are up and it happened.

But looking at it from a 7 game series point of view, the Suns should have won at least 2 games in this series with 1 being in San Antonio. Spurs should have won one in Phoenix (which they have)

You're right in that they had their best chance in game 1 & 2 but it didn't happen. Since the 3-0 was a sort of statistical fluke, the Spurs should have won 4-0 at that point to complete the "statistical" fluke or "buck the trend". But they didn't so now the odds come back into play and we have a normal statistic again, Spurs are 3-1 (winning 2 at home and 1 on the road, just missing 1 more home win to complete the trend #7)

The best chance of the Suns winning now would be in Game 6 but since they can't get to a game 6 without wiinning Game 5, they get odds towards game #5 since that's also the missing SA game win. If the Suns win #5 (as they are statistically favored to), the whole series is exactly back on the statistical trend 3-2 with both teams winning the games they should have won.

Then you round out statistics with Game #6 Suns and Game #7 Spurs and the series went exactly as it should have (looking at it from a 7 game perspective)

Numbers generally tend to even up and the statistics are generally correct...given a large enough sample. The 7 games isn't a large enough sample but that's all we have right now.

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John(NYC, NY): Your prediction for spurs/suns series was suns in 6. How do you justify that?

John Hollinger: (4:10 PM ET ) Is it really that complex? We should be 2-2 at this very moment. Obviously at 3-1 San Antonio will likely prevail, but I still say if you played this out 100 times it would go about 53-47 for Phoenix.


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braeden, san antonio: As a spurs fan, i'm somewhat worried about the suns coming back or at least sending the series to game 7. should i be?

John Hollinger: (4:10 PM ET ) Of course you should. These teams are basically even, so it wouldn't shock me at all if Phoenix climbed back in it.

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From his chat today :rolleyes.

Why do people continue to make excuses for the Suns and downplay what the Spurs have done. News flash, ALMOST winning a game, and ACTUALLY winning a game are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS!

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braeden, san antonio: As a spurs fan, i'm somewhat worried about the suns coming back or at least sending the series to game 7. should i be?

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Is that ST's braeden0613?

Wait, so almost winning two games is as important as actually winning two games? My head might explode trying to read the Hollinger statistical theory behind that logic.

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Originally Posted by 1Parker1

From his chat today :rolleyes.

Why do people continue to make excuses for the Suns and downplay what the Spurs have done. News flash, ALMOST winning a game, and ACTUALLY winning a game are TWO DIFFERENT THINGS!

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I agree with you about the analysis, but I think we're all getting a bit sensitive to hearing/reading media-types who are suggesting that the Spurs are just lucky to be up 3-1 and that it's very likely that the series will wend its way to a Game 7. I think that possibility certainly exists, no matter the mental and tactical advantages that the Spurs might seem to have, and I don't think it's wrong for pundits to argue that there's reason to think that the Suns could even win the series.

I think there's plenty in the 6 quarters that immediately preceeded Game 4 to think that the Spurs are the superior team; but if I'm a Suns fan, I'm banking on the fact that my team has been able to build double-digit first half leads in 3 of the 4 games and that it might have found some answers in its resounding win in Game 4.

Was Game 4 just the Suns playing well and the Spurs playing poorly (probably) or was it something else?

Hollinger's just hoping his original prediction pans out.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

You're right in that they had their best chance in game 1 & 2 but it didn't happen. Since the 3-0 was a sort of statistical fluke, the Spurs should have won 4-0 at that point to complete the "statistical" fluke or "buck the trend". But they didn't so now the odds come back into play and we have a normal statistic again, Spurs are 3-1 (winning 2 at home and 1 on the road, just missing 1 more home win to complete the trend #7)

The best chance of the Suns winning now would be in Game 6 but since they can't get to a game 6 without wiinning Game 5, they get odds towards game #5 since that's also the missing SA game win. If the Suns win #5 (as they are statistically favored to), the whole series is exactly back on the statistical trend 3-2 with both teams winning the games they should have won.

Then you round out statistics with Game #6 Suns and Game #7 Spurs and the series went exactly as it should have (looking at it from a 7 game perspective)

Numbers generally tend to even up and the statistics are generally correct...given a large enough sample. The 7 games isn't a large enough sample but that's all we have right now.

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This is absolutely false. If you flip a coin 49 times and it lands heads 49 times in a row, the chance of the next flip landing tails is not any greater than it had been on the first 49 flips. It is exactly the same.

There is no statistical evidence to suggest that a "skewed" stat is going to renormalize itself. Statistics do not work in such a manner. Never have, never will.

as SAS would say:

IT'S OVAH!

- Mars

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Originally Posted by Allanon

4) But instead they discombobulated on themselves when the Spurs applied pressure

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WTH does that mean? :wtf

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Originally Posted by Allanon

It's a remote possibility but the possibility is there nonetheless. I think it's ridiculous that a team down 0-3 could come back.

What worries me the most is:
1) The Suns have come back for 0-2 and 1-3 so we know they're resilient
2) They should have won Game 1 OR
2a) They should have won Game 2
4) But instead they discombobulated on themselves when the Spurs applied pressure

Odds say that the Suns are due to win a game in San Antonio in Game 5. And if they win in San Antonio, does that give them an automatic win in Phoenix in Game 6? They should have the odds to win in Phoenix being the home team and already losing 1 badly there.

That places Game #7 in the air, Phoenix would no longer have the odds to win in San Antonio.

So I would say series odds are now in favor of a 7 game series with San Antonio winning in game #7.

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I think many would agree that the Suns should have managed to pull out game 1 (although they didn't exactly tank in that game, the Spurs made a lot of plays).

But after their tremendous start in Game 2, the Spurs thoroughly outclassed them for the remainder of the night.

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Originally Posted by Pero

WTH does that mean? :wtf

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They fell apart.

No, not worried at all, for two main reasons. One, I think the chances that happens are slim to none, considering it'd mean losing the next three games in a row, two of which are in San Antonio including the potential deciding game. But more importantly, it means jack shit to me what round you're eliminated in, it's either a championship or not. And if the Spurs were to blow this lead then I'd take it as a strong indication they weren't going to make it past the next three rounds anyway, considering this might just be the toughest year in a while. In summary, if they're going to make it they can't blow this, and if they do -which they won't- then they weren't going to make it anyways. So no, not worried at all.

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Originally Posted by Cry Havoc

This is absolutely false. If you flip a coin 49 times and it lands heads 49 times in a row, the chance of the next flip landing tails is not any greater than it had been on the first 49 flips. It is exactly the same.

There is no statistical evidence to suggest that a "skewed" stat is going to renormalize itself. Statistics do not work in such a manner. Never have, never will.

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On a game by game basis, yes 50-50 would be accurate if you go by heads or tails but in trending the series, numbers tend to follow a pattern.

The skewed stat is 3-0 and that broke all the trends and should have gone 4-0 at that point if it follows the skewed pattern. But 3-1 is no longer an anomally, since it's on the verge of being changed in favor of the trend again aka 3-2:
1) Phoenix is supposed to win 1 of 4 games in SA
2) Suns should win 2 games out of 7 in the least

And if this happens, then the series would be 3-2 which again follows the overall 7 game series trend nicely and also suggests that Suns would win Game #6 as well.

We know trends aren't 100% correct but this series is falling back into the trend so it's not crazy to think the Suns have a good chance at winning #5 and also #6 depending on #5.

Let's see what Timmy, Tony and Manu have to say about the trends tomorrow :D

ps. Hahah Discombobulated, "to fall apart" or in the Suns case, they choked away the final minutes in Game 1 and the second half in Game 2. Spurs Defense had alot to do with it.

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Originally Posted by Mr.Bottomtooth

They fell apart.

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:lol
Why such a strange and long word for something so simple? :lol

I was in vegas all weekend and fell asleep at the Bellagio sportsbook watching the Suns-Spurs game on TV after being awake for approx. 36 hours of hard drinking... then I got kicked out... haha.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

Yes I can see your point, it's from a basketball point of view. It's hard to predict anything when it comes to humans.

Statistically speaking, only from a numbers perspective, there is no way the Spurs should have been up 3-0 but they are up and it happened.

But looking at it from a 7 game series point of view, the Suns should have won at least 2 games in this series with 1 being in San Antonio. Spurs should have won one in Phoenix (which they have)

You're right in that they had their best chance in game 1 & 2 but it didn't happen. Since the 3-0 was a sort of statistical fluke, the Spurs should have won 4-0 at that point to complete the "statistical" fluke or "buck the trend". But they didn't so now the odds come back into play and we have a normal statistic again, Spurs are 3-1 (winning 2 at home and 1 on the road, just missing 1 more home win to complete the trend #7)

The best chance of the Suns winning now would be in Game 6 but since they can't get to a game 6 without wiinning Game 5, they get odds towards game #5 since that's also the missing SA game win. If the Suns win #5 (as they are statistically favored to), the whole series is exactly back on the statistical trend 3-2 with both teams winning the games they should have won.

Then you round out statistics with Game #6 Suns and Game #7 Spurs and the series went exactly as it should have (looking at it from a 7 game perspective)

Numbers generally tend to even up and the statistics are generally correct...given a large enough sample. The 7 games isn't a large enough sample but that's all we have right now.

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Curious about this statistic and numbers perspective that you keep talking about when you say that the Suns have the odds for Game 5.

Weighted percentage of a Spurs home win this series is 72% based on Spurs home record and PHX road record.

This means, based on the odds, that the Spurs can reasonably expect to win three games before losing one game.

The first 4 games had the home team winning three times, a statistical reversal to the regular season where the road team won three times in four games.

How exactly do the odds favor the Suns?

What is this nebulous feeling of being "due"? Just because they missed their first "due" game in Game 1 does not mean that cosmic fate is going to present them with another "due" game.

The odds are for a 7 game series.

Like you said, it's about 75% for a Spurs home win. 25% would be for a Suns win in San Antonio.

So 1 out of 4. The Suns have not won a game in San Antonio yet so they haven't gotten their statistical "due"...in a statistical 7 game series. It could be game #5 or game #7 of the remaining games. But since the Suns won't have another chance, it must be game #5 and by winning #5, they put themselves into good position to win #6. But at the same time they have a very low chance of winning #7.

Almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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Originally Posted by RonMexico

I was in vegas all weekend and fell asleep at the Bellagio sportsbook watching the Suns-Spurs game on TV after being awake for approx. 36 hours of hard drinking... then I got kicked out... haha.

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plan to do that again? seems to have worked.

- Mars

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Originally Posted by Allanon

The odds are for a 7 game series.

Like you said, it's about 75% for a Spurs home win. 25% would be for a Suns win in San Antonio.

So 1 out of 4. The Suns have not won a game in San Antonio yet so they haven't filled their "due"...in a statistical 7 game series.

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Nor have the Spurs filled their "due" of three home wins out of four. So statistically, at worst, both teams have a 50-50 chance of winning this game.

If I'm PHX, I don't like those odds.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

The odds are for a 7 game series.

Like you said, it's about 75% for a Spurs home win. 25% would be for a Suns win in San Antonio.

So 1 out of 4. The Suns have not won a game in San Antonio yet so they haven't gotten their statistical "due"...in a statistical 7 game series. It could be game #5 or game #7 of the remaining games. But since the Suns won't have another chance, it must be game #5 and by winning #5, they put themselves into good position to win #6. But at the same time they have a very low chance of winning #7.

Almost like a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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Suns must win Game 5 to win Game 6.

Brilliant.

Is your name Hollinger?

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Originally Posted by sandman

Nor have the Spurs filled their "due" of three home wins out of four. So statistically, at worst, both teams have a 50-50 chance of winning this game.

If I'm PHX, I don't like those odds.

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Not exactly in my opinion. If the Spurs win Game #5, that means they took more than their share and the Suns didn't get their 1 win. The series would be ended and that does not follow the trend.

That should have been the case when they went up 3-0 but since it didn't, the regular trend comes back of 1 in SA for the Suns and 3 in SA for the Spurs.

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Originally Posted by sandman

Suns must win Game 5 to win Game 6.

Brilliant.

Is your name Hollinger?

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If that's your point after your previous intelligent response, whatever dude.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

Not exactly in my opinion. If the Spurs win Game #5, that means they took more than their share and the Suns didn't get their 1 win. The series would be ended and that does not follow the trend.

That should have been the case when they went up 3-0 but since it didn't, the regular trend comes back of 1 in SA for the Suns and 3 in SA for the Spurs.

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Your reasoning assumes that the Suns are somehow fated, by statistical quirk, to extend the series to 7 games and that their win in San Antonio (if there is to be one) must come before Game 7. I'd say that your reasoning is rather flawed in that sense.

The trend might show that the Suns are likely to win one of four games in San Antonio (though I'm not sure what statistical proof exists to support that premise -- as noted above, the Spurs have won at home at something better than an 80% clip in recent years and are better than 83% in the 2007-08 season; given those rates, the Suns are already ahead of the curve according to your logic as they've won 2 of 4 in San Antonio during 07-08). But there's no proof that the Suns are likely to specifically win one of the first three games in San Antonio.

Assuming for the sake of argument that the trend also showed that the Spurs were likely to win one of four games in Phoenix, that trend has already been fulfilled. The fulfillment of the Spurs road win trend has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Phoenix is more likely to win the third road game in San Antonio. The trend shows the Suns are (perhaps) likely to win 1 of 4 -- that trend doesn't say which one of the four it might be.

And the fact that losing Game 5 will eliminate the possibility of a 4th road game in San Antonio doesn't, by itself, make it any more likely (or less likely) that the Suns will win the third game in San Antonio, either.

You're connecting two premises that have no logical or statistical connection.

I'm not sure where your statistical reasoning comes from, but it seems to be fundamentally flawed. There's no logic to your logic.

Ultimately, there's little doubt that the Suns could win Game 5. But if they do, it will have nothing whatsoever to do with the odds catching up with either team. Nothing.

http://simpsons.ugo.com/images/seque...ters/frink.jpg

We'll have these babies on the shelves long before they figure out the Pickle Matrix!

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

Your reasoning assumes that the Suns are somehow fated, by statistical quirk, to extend the series to 7 games and that their win in San Antonio (if there is to be one) must come before Game 7. I'd say that your reasoning is rather flawed in that sense.

The trend might show that the Suns are likely to win one of four games in San Antonio (though I'm not sure what statistical proof exists to support that premise -- as noted above, the Spurs have won at home at something better than an 80% clip in recent years and are better than 83% in the 2007-08 season; given those rates, the Suns are already ahead of the curve according to your logic as they've won 2 of 4 in San Antonio during 07-08). But there's no proof that the Suns are likely to specifically win one of the first three games in San Antonio.

Assuming for the sake of argument that the trend also showed that the Spurs were likely to win one of four games in Phoenix, that trend has already been fulfilled. The fulfillment of the Spurs road win trend has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not Phoenix is more likely to win the third road game in San Antonio. The trend shows the Suns are (perhaps) likely to win 1 of 4 -- that trend doesn't say which one of the four it might be.

And the fact that losing Game 5 will eliminate the possibility of a 4th road game in San Antonio doesn't, by itself, make it any more likely (or less likely) that the Suns will win the third game in San Antonio, either.

You're connecting two premises that have no logical or statistical connection.

I'm not sure where your statistical reasoning comes from, but it seems to be fundamentally flawed. There's no logic to your logic.

Ultimately, there's little doubt that the Suns could win Game 5. But if they do, it will have nothing whatsoever to do with the odds catching up with either team. Nothing.

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I think you're confusing yourself going into too many different areas, there's no murky math here or magical connections:

Just look at the ESPN predictions and almost every expert in the world:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs

This series was projected as a 6 or 7 game series from the beginning due to the fact that both teams are pretty evenly matched. I think a 6 or 7 series assumption is correct, reasonable and that is the "trend".

The Spurs bucked the trend by going 3-0 but by going back to 3-1, they're back on track with a trend of 7.

So based upon a 6 or 7 game series, the Suns are most likely to win at least 1 SA game in this series. That game happens to be #5.

It's as simple as that.

I've got some math that might be a little too much for Hollinger to handle. The team with more points at the end of the game tomorrow will be the winner.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

So based upon a 6 or 7 game series, the Suns are most likely to win at least 1 SA game in this series. That game happens to be #5.

It's as simple as that.

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If you choose to oversimplify statistical analysis -- and if you deem the predictions of ESPN experts to somehow be either statistical or binding in terms of the likely outcomes of the series. How many times have ESPN's experts unanimously agreed that a series would go 6 or 7 games, only to have the teams decide the series in fewer than 6 or 7 games?

Even if your initial premises are true, there's still nothing about those points that suggests, invariably, that the Suns are somehow most likely to win Game 5. I mean, you're assuming that no matter what, this series goes at least 6 games. Aside from the lack of statistical proof to back that up -- and notwithstanding the basic flaw in your argument: the fact that the outcome of any basketball game is never the product of fulfilling some statistical trend -- there's nothing to say that the series is somehow still likely to go to 6 or 7 games when one team stakes itself to a 3-1 lead.

Again, I don't quarrel with the idea that the Suns can win Game 5 -- they definitely can. I just think it's asinine to suggest that there's some statistical certainty to that result happening. If the Suns win Game 5, it won't be because they're destined to win it or because the odds caught up with them.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

It's a remote possibility but the possibility is there nonetheless. I think it's ridiculous that a team down 0-3 could come back.

What worries me the most is:
1) The Suns have come back for 0-2 and 1-3 so we know they're resilient
2) They should have won Game 1 OR
2a) They should have won Game 2
4) But instead they discombobulated on themselves when the Spurs applied pressure

Odds say that the Suns are due to win a game in San Antonio in Game 5. And if they win in San Antonio, does that give them an automatic win in Phoenix in Game 6? They should have the odds to win in Phoenix being the home team and already losing 1 badly there.

That places Game #7 in the air, Phoenix would no longer have the odds to win in San Antonio.

So I would say series odds are now in favor of a 7 game series with San Antonio winning in game #7.

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Phoenix has already won their one home game per Spurs series. Seriously, they were 2-7 at home over the last three series vs. SA. Game 6 would certainly not be a pencil-in win for PHO.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

If you choose to oversimplify statistical analysis -- and if you deem the predictions of ESPN experts to somehow be either statistical or binding in terms of the likely outcomes of the series. How many times have ESPN's experts unanimously agreed that a series would go 6 or 7 games, only to have the teams decide the series in fewer than 6 or 7 games?

Even if your initial premises are true, there's still nothing about those points that suggests, invariably, that the Suns are somehow most likely to win Game 5. I mean, you're assuming that no matter what, this series goes at least 6 games. Aside from the lack of statistical proof to back that up -- and notwithstanding the basic flaw in your argument: the fact that the outcome of any basketball game is never the product of fulfilling some statistical trend -- there's nothing to say that the series is somehow still likely to go to 6 or 7 games when one team stakes itself to a 3-1 lead.

Again, I don't quarrel with the idea that the Suns can win Game 5 -- they definitely can. I just think it's asinine to suggest that there's some statistical certainty to that result happening. If the Suns win Game 5, it won't be because they're destined to win it or because the odds caught up with them.

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I'm no expert but I'd take expert opinion over mines and I would say anybody handicapping this series would have called it a 6-7 game series. I suppose you're not much of a numbers guy...this isn't "magic" or "destiny/fate" or anything mystical or paranormal.

These are just numbers and how they relate to patterns. I'm not sure why you are wrapped up in destiny. Statistics trends patterns, it doesn't say they are 100% true but they are generally correct.

in a 7 game series, with 4 games in SA the odds are that the Suns will get 1 game in SA.

We know if they lose tomorrow, that it's over...so that's NOT within the trend.

By winning tomorrow, the Suns follow the trend of winning 1 out of 4.

I suppose we'll find out in 24 hours. And I'll go onto say if the Suns win tomorrow, they will most likely win game #6 and no, it's not "destiny" either :D

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Originally Posted by Allanon

If that's your point after your previous intelligent response, whatever dude.

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I'm simply pointing out that it was a bit obvious that the Suns must win Game 5 in order to win Game 6.

You insist that because the Spurs did not sweep, the series must now go a full seven games to fulfill some statistical necessity. Ergo, the Suns will win Games 5 and 7 simply so that they can fulfill a 25% road record after a loss in Game 7.

In the end, the Suns still lose. And they know it. I highly doubt that the intangible of the human psyche will want to rise to the occasion over the next two games simply to fulfill a statistical prophecy.

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Originally Posted by sandman

I'm simply pointing out that it was a bit obvious that the Suns must win Game 5 in order to win Game 6.

You insist that because the Spurs did not sweep, the series must now go a full seven games to fulfill some statistical necessity. Ergo, the Suns will win Games 5 and 7 simply so that they can fulfill a 25% road record after a loss in Game 7.

In the end, the Suns still lose. And they know it. I highly doubt that the intangible of the human psyche will want to rise to the occasion over the next two games simply to fulfill a statistical prophecy.

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There was sarcasm in your post so I took it the wrong way, I apologize.

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Originally Posted by The Truth #6

I think he has nothing else to write about. Or, he's hoping for another game to be on ESPN/ABC. Who knows what that was all about?

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He was wrong. He predicted the Suns would win. They won't.

My email to him: Can't admit your power ranking is imperfect? This fits with past Suns/Spurs playoffs. Spurs have 4 titles in 9 years. Regular season isn't important. Meaningless comments you yourself don't even believe. Nor do we.

:nope

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Originally Posted by Allanon

There was sarcasm in your post so I took it the wrong way, I apologize.

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Oh no, there was a ton of sarcasm in my post! :lol

But I try to use it as humor, not a hammer.

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Originally Posted by Sausage

a few tidbits from a Hollinger chat on ESPN.com

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I'm tired of this "Suns should have won game 1 or 2" bullshit.

By that logic, Spurs should have won game 4 last year against them, and actually won the series 5-1, so that whining about the suspensions is moot.

Man, some people are having some strange takes on probability here.

Let's start from square one:

1. coin flip is 50-50
2. if you flip heads 9 times, the probability of getting heads the next time is still 50%

Now, Suns-Spurs

1. Lets assume they are equal, and thus 50-50
2. Let's say the Spurs- winning the first three games was statistically improbable to the same extent as flipping heads 9 times.

Question: what is the chance of winning game 5?

3. Still 50-50

In other words, previous events have no statistical correlation with detached later events. So, using simplistic statistical arguments to "prove" the Suns will win game 5 is nonsensical.

In my opinion, these teams are very evenly matched, and the final 3 games could very well be 50-50. If you do the math, that would come out to .125 chance of the Suns winning the series, right? That leaves out the small effects of home court, and the possibly large effects of injuries, fatigue, and coaching.

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Originally Posted by michaelwcho

Man, some people are having some strange takes on probability here.

Let's start from square one:

1. coin flip is 50-50
2. if you flip heads 9 times, the probability of getting heads the next time is still 50%

Now, Suns-Spurs

1. Lets assume they are equal, and thus 50-50
2. Let's say the Spurs- winning the first three games was statistically improbable to the same extent as flipping heads 9 times.

Question: what is the chance of winning game 5?

3. Still 50-50

In other words, previous events have no statistical correlation with detached later events. So, using simplistic statistical arguments to "prove" the Suns will win game 5 is nonsensical.

In my opinion, these teams are very evenly matched, and the final 3 games could very well be 50-50. If you do the math, that would come out to .125 chance of the Suns winning the series, right? That leaves out the small effects of home court, and the possibly large effects of injuries, fatigue, and coaching.

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You make a good point... because a lot of people screw up the concept of probability.

Hollinger tries to use stats too much to try and explain events in which humans are involved. Yes, Suns and Spurs are evenly matched and therefore, odds should be 50-50 in the final 3 games, but nerves, momentum, and streaks factor into NBA games very much. That's why "clutch factors" cannot be measured in numbers. Hell, even in Vegas this weekend they still had the Suns' championship odds at 4-1 and the Spurs at 3-1 before Game 4 began.

However, I'm watching Joe Johnson singlehandedly dismantle the Celtics' defense and I'm realizing three things:

1. This shows that in the NBA, anything (including amazing) can happen.
2. Man, it would be nice to have Joe Johnson in this series.
3. Despite Diaw's Game 4, fuck Robert Sarver for not re-signing him.

Spurs in six............!!:flag::flag::flag:

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Originally Posted by Str8Ballin

come on, aint you guys a little scared?

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Yes they are!

Phoenix will become the first team to win a best-of-seven first round series after being down 0-3

And for that matter the Spurs will become the biggest CHOKERS in NBA History for allowing this to happen.

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Originally Posted by oski1000

Spurs in six............!!:flag::flag::flag:

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So what happened to Game 5?

Already conceding defeat?

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Originally Posted by biba

Rising Suns???

Just gonna throw this out there …

John Hollinger ESPN

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playof...rprises-080428


And if it happened, that would provide the ultimate surprise of this first round.

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Doesn't matter what any of them say. It isn't going to happen.

But before talking about the surprise of the first round, he ought to pay attention to the fact that the Celtics and Hawks are tied at 2-2. If the Hawks somehow pull off a series win, it would be the surprise of the season... period. And right now that's a lot more likely than the Suns winning 3 more in a row.

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Originally Posted by Princess Pimp

Yes they are!

Phoenix will become the first team to win a best-of-seven first round series after being down 0-3

And for that matter the Spurs will become the biggest CHOKERS in NBA History for allowing this to happen.

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Considering the Spurs have won every game Louis has guaranteed they will lose this playoffs so far, I suddenly feel a lot better about their chances in Game 5. :lol

And if the Spurs win Game 5, I predict Louis is going to show up as a Hornets troll and guarantee another sweep.

The Spurs are one good first quarter from finishing this series.

Forget having to play a solid entire game. If they just get off to a good start, the mental midgets will fold up tent.

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Originally Posted by FromWayDowntown

I think you missed my point. In all of time, there have been 85 teams that have gone down 3-0 in a playoff series. At this moment, there are only 2 teams that have a chance to come back from down 3-0 and win a series -- the 2008 Suns and the 2008 Nuggets. Of those 2, the most likely to come back and win is the Suns, if only because they've already managed to win one of the games necessary to complete such a comeback. As such, the 2008 Suns are the team most likely, in all of NBA history, to rally from down 0-3 to win a series. That's not saying that they will do it; but for now, they have a better chance than the 83 teams who've already failed and they have a better chance than the Nuggets team that has not yet won a game in its series.

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what are the chances of a team coming back when down 4 in a series?

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Originally Posted by michaelwcho

Man, some people are having some strange takes on probability here.

Let's start from square one:

1. coin flip is 50-50
2. if you flip heads 9 times, the probability of getting heads the next time is still 50%

Now, Suns-Spurs

1. Lets assume they are equal, and thus 50-50
2. Let's say the Spurs- winning the first three games was statistically improbable to the same extent as flipping heads 9 times.

Question: what is the chance of winning game 5?

3. Still 50-50

In other words, previous events have no statistical correlation with detached later events. So, using simplistic statistical arguments to "prove" the Suns will win game 5 is nonsensical.

In my opinion, these teams are very evenly matched, and the final 3 games could very well be 50-50. If you do the math, that would come out to .125 chance of the Suns winning the series, right? That leaves out the small effects of home court, and the possibly large effects of injuries, fatigue, and coaching.

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The probability of the Suns winning 1 game out of 4 games in SA remains the same no matter how many games they have already lost. Probability says they will win 1 out of 4 games in San Antonio.

Let's do it a little easier since it's so "non-sensical". Let's do something you can relate to, "Hack a Shaq"

You hack Shaq because he will PROBABLY miss, not because he is 100% going to miss. His % is 60%, and most likely he will miss 4 out of 10 free throws. Is this predicting or controlling the future? Why don't you do Hack a Nash? Nash has a 50/50 chance of making the free throw when he stands at the line...just like Shaq...what bearing do his last million free throws have on his chances today "a detached later event" of making his free throws...it's 50/50 isn't it?

Ah, but is it REALLY that plain and simple 50/50 chance...I mean you either make the shot at the line or you don't right? Why not hack Nash instead of Shaq since past performance doesn't have a direct affect on their shot right now ("a detached later event")? Does probability have any say in whether Shaq or Nash will make their next free throw even though they BOTH have a 50/50 chance of making it?

Is there really only a 50/50 chance that the Suns will lose 4 games straight in San Antonio or is it more probable that the Suns will win 1 game out of 4?

Even though there's only a 50/50 chance, Nash is more likely to hit his free throws than Shaq.
Even though there's only a 50/50 chance, the Suns are more likely to win 1 out of 4 in SA rather than lose 4 straight in SA.

Even though Hollinger's stats are sometimes wrong, they are more often right because of statistical probability.

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Originally Posted by Allanon

You hack Shaq because he will PROBABLY miss, not because he is 100% going to miss. His % is 60%, and most likely he will miss 4 out of 10 free throws. Is this predicting or controlling the future? Why don't you do Hack a Nash? Nash has a 50/50 chance of making the free throw when he stands at the line

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The above states that Shaq is 10 percent more likely to make a free throw than Steve Nash is.

You REALLY need to just give up trying to discuss statistics or probability, because you've proven it's far beyond your grasp.