ESPN writer roundtable: What does the future hold for Spurs?

Lock if reposted:


1. If the Spurs don't make the NBA Finals this season, what will have been the main reasons?



Henry Abbott, TrueHoop: Manu Ginobili's inconsistent play, which is undoubtedly related to fatigue and injury, and some bad timing in which the Spurs' normally excellent role players -- Robert Horry, Michael Finley, Bruce Bowen, Brent Barry -- took turns being really, really cold when it mattered.



Also, the Lakers are an excellent team.



J.A. Adande, ESPN.com: Sometimes there's a fine line between "experienced" and "old," and the Spurs appeared to tiptoe past it in these playoffs, getting blown out by New Orleans three times on the road and getting out-hustled by the Lakers in their own building in Game 5.



Another reason would be the lack of consistent production from their role players. Robert Horry hasn't made a shot so far this series. Two starters didn't score in Game 5. As Hubie Brown would say, you cannot have that.



Chris Broussard, ESPN The Mag: Age has had a slight impact. Tim Duncan is still a super-elite player but he has lost a step, and Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley, while still effective, have lost a bit as well.



Also, the Lakers improved drastically, as did New Orleans. Simply put, San Antonio is no longer the best team in the West. L.A. is.



Ric Bucher, ESPN The Mag: The age and athleticism issues we've been talking about for the past few years finally came to bear.



John Hollinger, ESPN.com: If the Spurs don't make the Finals, it won't be because of a non-call at the end of Game 4. No, the reason instead will be the 20-point lead they blew in Game 1 and, more generally, the fact they ran into a team with younger, fresher legs and didn't have enough left in the tank to respond.



With Manu worse than 100 percent and the other role players showing their age, they weren't quite good enough this time around.



Chris Sheridan, ESPN.com: It won't be because of Joey Crawford or any other peripheral issue. It'll be because they met their match -- just like two years ago against Dallas. The Lakers deserve credit here. They've played well ... except for those final 30 seconds in Game 4.





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2. How much longer do you expect the Spurs' big three to play at a high level?



Abbott: At least three years.



John Hollinger will tell you big men last longer, and Tim Duncan is in perfectly good shape as far as I can tell. He's 32 and he'll be elite for at least three more years, I'd assume.



Ginobili is the biggest worry: He's injury prone and a wing who has to be athletic to be most effective. But he's turning only 31 this summer. Plus, he can shoot and he has plenty of size for his position, so he'll age better than most.



And Parker is a baby.



Adande: If these playoffs are any indication, the Spurs will be down to a Big 2½ in the next couple of years.



Duncan is still capable of putting up big numbers and his game isn't based on athleticism, so age won't affect him the way it did, say, Shaquille O'Neal. Tony Parker just turned 26 and is as fast as ever.



But the accumulated wear and tear of all those extra playoff games, plus international competition, appears to be catching up to Ginobili -- especially on defense, where he no longer is the roving X factor he used to be.



Broussard: Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon and Moses Malone all had their last "20-10''-type seasons at (roughly) 34 years of age, so the 32-year-old Duncan's probably got two, maybe three, seasons left at this level.



Having a great, young (26) point guard like Tony Parker will help keep him at a high level.



Ginobili, who'll be 31 this summer, is probably on a similar timetable to Duncan, so I'll give them at least two more years at close to this level, but to win another title, they're going to have to have better pieces around them.



Bucher: The only question mark is the cumulative effect of Manu Ginobili's injuries.



Tim Duncan never lived off his athleticism, so even if that is diminishing, it shouldn't have a significant impact on his effectiveness.



Tony Parker is still improving.



They should have at least two more seasons as a championship-caliber core.



Hollinger: I'd expect each of them to have at least a couple more good years in them. Ginobili had the best season of his career this year and Parker is only 26, so it's not like imminent declines are coming from either of them.



Duncan, at 32, remains one of the league's most effective players, and players of his size and build tend to age well. So I doubt any of them will slip radically over the next two years.



Sheridan: Duncan has slipped very little. And Parker still has 90 percent of his speed, and Manu merely has ankle issues holding him back. I see them staying at a high level through 2012.





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3. What will be the Spurs' biggest issues going forward?



Abbott: There is no crisis, just really good competition and a need for some of the pieces in the pipeline to start contributing (like Rodney Stuckey and Amir Johnson will be doing for the Pistons -- a team in a similar spot).



The Spurs let Luis Scola get away. And they might be losing Tiago Splitter to Tau. So that puts a lot of pressure on the likes of Ian Mahinmi, Ime Udoka and new youngsters who might join the roster to really be able to play. In the past, those guys weren't really needed.



Adande: The Spurs are so businesslike, it makes sense that one of their issues could be found in the currency tables of the Wall Street Journal; the declining dollar makes it less appealing for foreign draft picks to come here when they could be getting paid in Euros.



And as other teams catch up with them they won't have the built-in edge to attract NBA free agents they enjoyed when they were closer to a title than anyone else.



Finally, if home court is going to continue to make such a difference in the playoffs, the Spurs won't be able to stick with their strategy of rationing out minutes to the veterans and cruising a little in the regular season to keep everyone fresh. They'll have to fight for top seeds like everyone else.



Broussard: The Spurs are going to have to put better players around their big three. They're going to have to get younger and more athletic, and they'll need to get a better power forward to match up with David West in N.O., and Pau Gasol (who will move to the 4 when Andrew Bynum returns) or Odom in L.A.



Duncan won't be able to carry that frontline by himself anymore. He needs a PF who can give him good rebounding and a little scoring.



Bucher: The Spurs have structured their contracts so that only Parker and Duncan are under contract for the summer of '10, when a dozen or more superstars -- Kobe, who has great admiration for the San Antonio organization, included -- could be available.



So the biggest question they face is, how much do they invest in potential free agents, and thereby impinge upon their cap flexibility, between then and now?



Hollinger: Their three biggest problems are age, age and age. Every Spurs role player is on the wrong side of 30. All of them. And they're fading fast.



Michael Finley is a shell of what he was. Robert Horry is done, finito, over. Bruce Bowen (36), Brent Barry (36) and Fabricio Oberto (33) got next.



Even Ime Udoka is 30, and he's the young whippersnapper on this bench.



The Spurs need to rebuild the entire roster outside of the three-man core over the next two years; while they've given themselves plenty of cap flexibility to do it, it's a massive undertaking.



Sheridan: They need a young big man and an athletic 3. I am not ready to say that Ian Mahinmi and Tiago Splitter are the answers.





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4. The Spurs have talked about keeping this core together through (at least) 2012. How many NBA titles will they win from now to then?



Abbott: Darn it, my crystal ball is still not working! I'll guess one, but anything from zero to three would not surprise me.



Adande: The Spurs could get one more championship in that window. They will have to be opportunistic because the next three to four years should belong to the Lakers, with the Hornets, Jazz and possibly Blazers in the Western Conference elite mix as well.



Maybe they'll catch a break (they're owed one after the Derek Fisher non-call) or benefit from a key injury on another team. They'll be a fixture in the second round, but will need things to go their way to advance.



Broussard: Like I said, it depends on who they add to their core. As they are, they probably won't win another ring. But I'll give them one more title through 2012 just because "you can never count them out'' and, I'm assuming, they'll make smart personnel moves.



Bucher: On their every-other-year schedule, two more, but even the Spurs don't believe they can keep that run going.



That said, they are simply too smart as an organization for anyone to suggest they can't claim one more Larry O'Brien bauble before we see Duncan and Popovich ride off into the sunset together.



Hollinger: The Duncan-era Spurs might very well have another title left in them. Remember, this is one of the league's shrewdest organizations, and I have little doubt R.C. Buford, Gregg Popovich and company can figure out how to get some new pieces to replenish the aging ones.



The problem is that it might take a couple of years to get it all sorted out, and in the meantime the Lakers, Jazz, Hornets and Blazers all will be ascendant in the West.



Sheridan: At least one. And I am not counting them out of this series yet. But they'll be a high-level team at least until then, and they have a knack for winning tight games.





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5. How do the Spurs rate among the greatest franchises of the past three decades?



Abbott: Part of being a "great franchise" is capturing the imagination of a national audience, and on that score they are among the worst champions ever and rank so far behind the Bulls, Lakers, and Celtics that you'd need binoculars to see them. But they don't care. This franchise under Gregg Popovich and Tim Duncan has always been about playing the best basketball, and on that score you simply have to put them up there with the very best.



Adande: They go sixth, behind the '80s Lakers, the '80s Celtics, the '90s Bulls, the three-peat Lakers and the underrated Pistons Bad Boys teams.



Duncan deserves credit for being the mainstay of so many good teams, but the full Spurs lineup couldn't match the talent on those other squads. Their most admirable trait has been their stability, a testament to the mind-set of the players and coaches and the front office's ability to manage the payroll. But that isn't an awe-inspiring trait.



Broussard: On the court, the Lakers are easily the NBA's finest franchise over the past three decades. Chicago's great just based on the Jordan Era, but San Antonio is right there after that.



They were solid in the late '70s/early '80s with The Iceman, very good in the late '80s/early '90s with The Admiral and great in the late '90s/2000s with Duncan. They haven't had the long droughts of weak play that have plagued Chicago and Boston and Detroit.



Off the court, the Spurs are great in terms of professionalism, character, etc.



Bucher: A top-five franchise, along with Lakers, Celtics, Pistons and Bulls.



Sure, they haven't won back-to-back titles, but maybe that's a reflection of overall increased league parity more than the Spurs' being unworthy of entrance to Valhalla. In the five years since the Lakers' three-peat, seven different teams have been in the Finals. If the Lakers and Celtics advance, it will be nine different teams over a six-year span. From a cursory glance at the NBA Guide, I didn't see a five-year stretch that ever saw that much Finals turnover.



Hollinger: The fact San Antonio never repeated will be held against it, but four championships in nine years is impressive no matter how you slice it. While these Spurs can't hang with the Shaq-and-Kobe three-peat or the Lakers and Celtics teams from the '80s, I'd put them up against any other team from the past three decades.



So let's call them the fourth-best dynasty of the post-merger era. That's not too shabby for a little outpost in south Texas.




http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playof...e-Spurs-080529

Quite a good round table.

They only have 3 good players on their team. Bowen, Finley and the role players need to be dealt.

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Originally Posted by Lake_show

They only have 3 good players on their team. Bowen, Finley and the role players need to be dealt.

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Bowen stays. The rest can go.

Very good analysis of the spurs past, present and future.

In 2010 I do not expect the Spurs to go out and get Kobe. If anything the Spurs will sign a bunch of young hotshots and basically start over.

the future is a slow, sometimes painful descent into oblivion. Kinda like the future of US of A

Pretty good until #5...

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Abbott: Part of being a "great franchise" is capturing the imagination of a national audience

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Why is that? Says who?

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Adande: They go sixth, behind the '80s Lakers, the '80s Celtics, the '90s Bulls, the three-peat Lakers and the underrated Pistons Bad Boys teams.

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Behind a two-time champion?

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Originally Posted by Bucher

In the five years since the Lakers' three-peat, seven different teams have been in the Finals. If the Lakers and Celtics advance, it will be nine different teams over a six-year span.

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Eight. The Lakers were there in 2004.

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Originally Posted by Hoillinger

While these Spurs can't hang with the Shaq-and-Kobe three-peat or the Lakers and Celtics teams from the '80s, I'd put them up against any other team from the past three decades.

So let's call them the fourth-best dynasty of the post-merger era. That's not too shabby for a little outpost in south Texas.

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I think Hollinger forgot someone.

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Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

Bowen stays. The rest can go.

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He is 36, no offensive threat and his defense is declining. He should be a bench player NOT a starter.

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Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

Bowen stays. The rest can go.

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yep! indeed.

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Originally Posted by Lake_show

He is 36, no offensive threat and his defense is declining. He should be a bench player NOT a starter.

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he is still best perimeter defender in the league. :idiot

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Originally Posted by Lake_show

He is 36, no offensive threat and his defense is declining. He should be a bench player NOT a starter.

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You said he needs to be dealt.

Make up your mind.

So much for Ime taking over Bowen's spot.

so we already lost this season?

That was an awfully nice obituary.

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Originally Posted by nkdlunch

he is still best perimeter defender in the league. :idiot

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I'd take Artest first over him. I'd still take a good defender and not a offensive liability. Point blank, Bowen should come off the bench.

I enjoyed the article even though it reeked of impending doom. The writer's seemed fairly on point.

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Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

You said he needs to be dealt.

Make up your mind.

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Either or.

"Adande: The Spurs are so businesslike, it makes sense that one of their issues could be found in the currency tables of the Wall Street Journal; the declining dollar makes it less appealing for foreign draft picks to come here when they could be getting paid in Euros."

Interesting point.

How long until top American draft picks are being recruited BY Europe?

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Originally Posted by MadDog73

"Adande: The Spurs are so businesslike, it makes sense that one of their issues could be found in the currency tables of the Wall Street Journal; the declining dollar makes it less appealing for foreign draft picks to come here when they could be getting paid in Euros."

Interesting point.

How long until top American draft picks are being recruited BY Europe?

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Could this be why the NBA is trying to get a team or teams in Europe? From my understanding that the teams that are in Canada pay pay their players with the Canadian dollar. (I am not positive on that) So if a team is based in Europe they would be paid in Euro's. But would that make them more attractive to play for? I guess it also depends on the taxes that have to be paid.

I would be laughing when the Spurs come back and win the series in 7.

:depressed

People are acting as if it's like the end of an Era or something.

As long as Orberto, Vaughn, Finley, & Horry don't come back, its all good.

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Originally Posted by 1Parker1

:depressed

People are acting as if it's like the end of an Era or something.

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Hmm, 4 of your starters have about 3 years left in them.

ESPN writer roundtable: What does the future hold for Spurs?

Game 5. Nothing else. They have to focus on game 5.

Hope they dont read this article before this playoff ends. After the PO, i hope they really do.

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Originally Posted by 1Parker1

:depressed

People are acting as if it's like the end of an Era or something.

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Losing Tiago hurts us in a bad way. Tiago was going to be someone they built around as Duncan declined. I don't think Ian can fill that gap, though I expect him to be pretty good. Ime is no Bruce, and he's 30 anyway, isn't he? Still no reliable back up point, Manu's health is a serious ? next season with the Olympics this summer. Our other wings consist of a guy who may retire and a guy who should retire. Our bigs consist of the corpse of Robert Horry and a heckuva nice guy who doesn't play really good basketball, despite how much we want him too.

They are going to be hard pressed to fill all the holes with not enough money.

It's definitely not over, and the Spurs have done a really good job at sustainability since drafting DRob - they've been almost perennial playoff team and been actual title contenders for many of those years. But there is no doubt that the current era is rapidly looking at a closing window. Whether or not the transition is seamlessly made to a new era (as it was from DRob to TMT) remains to be seen, and frankly, there is no way to tell. Losing Tiago is a big blow coming on the heels of trading Scola (and I wanted him traded).

Wake up! It's reality. 4 of your starters have about 3 years left in them.

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Originally Posted by Lake_show

He is 36, no offensive threat and his defense is declining. He should be a bench player NOT a starter.

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Bowen outscored Kobe in a game this season. It happened before the Gasol trade so I doubt any of the bandwagoners were paying attention.

Bowen is the one Spur who hasn't looked tired or slowed in the playoffs at all. He plays like he's the youngest guy in the rotation.

:lmao I was thinking that in Game 4. Bowen has arguably been provided the Spurs with the most consistent offense this series agains the Lakers.

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Originally Posted by Lake_show

Wake up! It's reality. 4 of your starters have about 3 years left in them.

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Probably/around that.

But they have already been cloned and are growing: Duncan 2 was the first when he doesnt even was in SA, now he has like 16 years old. What a visioners.

http://www.genetologisch-onderzoek.n...ad/cloning.jpg

The future of the Spurs: a descent into interminable mediocrity while the allegedly "die-hard" San Antonio fans drop them like cheap hookers and devote themselves instead to following dog races, boxing, and Mexican League soccer.

Go after Ryan Gomes

We have to retool fast just to keep up with the other teams in the West. I don't know how we can do it.

Splitter was a good pick--but now probably gone for good. Ian may not be ready to play extended minutes at this level for a couple of seasons. And those are our best players in the pipeline.

We desperately need to raid the FA market and much as I hate it, the best fit/pick would be Artest. Desperate times call for desperate measures.

this article is close to useless, except in proving that if you ask 4 different people their opinions you get 4 different opinions.

in summary: Duncan is declining, but he's not declining, and he has 2 or 3 more years left of elite play. Manu is declining, and injury prone, but he played the best season of his career. the Spurs are going to be chamionship contenders for at least 2-3 more years, but the Lakers are better. Riiiiiiiiiight.

Spurs will definitely have to get better and younger next year. But that is true for every team in the league, except the one that walks away with the title.

By the way, I'm not convinced the Spurs don't come in and win tonight. Manu is going to have a spectacular game, because he has a lot of pride, and he doesn't want to go out like that. Whether he can do it, and the Spurs can do it, for another 3 games in a row - that's a big if. But I don't think they lose tonight.

My biggest worry that I have brought up a million times and you homers never seem to care is that this team is getting very old before our eyes with no plan in place to retool while still winning.

At this rate of atrophy, the Spurs will be a lottery team before they win another title.

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Originally Posted by Ghost Writer

My biggest worry that I have brought up a million times and you homers never seem to care is that this team is getting very old before our eyes with no plan in place to retool while still winning.

At this rate of atrophy, the Spurs will be a lottery team before they win another title.

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I don't know what you want them to do.

They have high draft picks, no cap room.

All they can do, until a certain time, is use the MLE.

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Originally Posted by T Park

I don't know what you want them to do.

They have high draft picks, no cap room.

All they can do, until a certain time, is use the MLE.

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Make a trade for young, serviceable talent.


And you know that the Spurs will cling to the Big 3 as they continue to age towards retirement instead of biting the bullet for some draft picks, etc.

:lol we've all noted the importance of getting younger. Trouble is, there's nothing we can do about it.

Very good article.

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Originally Posted by ChumpDumper

Bowen stays. The rest can go.

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if thomas can develop some offensive chemistry with the team, which a full season can do, he could be a last-resort type option to resign if we can't get another big who can contribute immediately, which we will need if Splitter decides to stay with Tau.

Barry can stay, and he can go a long way to proving himself as deserving of a spot with a big effort tonight. i count on it. besides, didn't we sign him for next year (or 2?) when we picked him up off waivers after the elson trade?

other than these two, and of course the BIG 4, the rest don't have to go home, but they gotta get the hell up outta here.

I would start by filing a lawsuit against the Memphis Grizzlies for damaging the integrity of the league.

Next, follow Detriot's plan. They have 4 guys on the bench learning to play and getting ready to step into starting roles when need be in Afflalo, Stuckey, Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. Stuckey was a steal at the 15th pick.

We can't continue to draft players and let them sit overseas or misfire like on Marcus Williams. How much better off today would we be with Carl Landry and Glen Davis instead of the two players we drafted last season. I don't think either is great but they are serviceable. Personally, I was wishing we had moved up a couple spots and taken Morris Almond out of Rice.

With the 26th and 45th picks this year we have to get players. period. if CDR out of Memphis is really going to slide into the early 20's then move up and get him or whoever the brain trust feels will contribute the most. CDR is the kind of guy we could use off the bench and would easily be the most athletic player on the roster. Now that Utah has Korver and Brewer looks like a player, see what the want for Morris, he fits the Spurs player mold. Work out Hardin out of Cal or McGee out of Nevada and find out what they have. And scour the free agent field with a magnifying glass. How desperate are we for a Jamario Moon to come off the bench ???

This is the biggest offseason this decade for the Spurs. We still have the core pieces to win another title but players must be added and the bench has to get younger and more athletic. It starts on draft day and we can't have another disaster like 2007.

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Originally Posted by LEN BIAS 4EVER

I would start by filing a lawsuit against the Memphis Grizzlies for damaging the integrity of the league.

Next, follow Detriot's plan. They have 4 guys on the bench learning to play and getting ready to step into starting roles when need be in Afflalo, Stuckey, Maxiell, and Amir Johnson. Stuckey was a steal at the 15th pick.

We can't continue to draft players and let them sit overseas or misfire like on Marcus Williams. How much better off today would we be with Carl Landry and Glen Davis instead of the two players we drafted last season. I don't think either is great but they are serviceable. Personally, I was wishing we had moved up a couple spots and taken Morris Almond out of Rice.

With the 26th and 45th picks this year we have to get players. period. if CDR out of Memphis is really going to slide into the early 20's then move up and get him or whoever the brain trust feels will contribute the most. CDR is the kind of guy we could use off the bench and would easily be the most athletic player on the roster. Now that Utah has Korver and Brewer looks like a player, see what the want for Morris, he fits the Spurs player mold. Work out Hardin out of Cal or McGee out of Nevada and find out what they have. And scour the free agent field with a magnifying glass. How desperate are we for a Jamario Moon to come off the bench ???

This is the biggest offseason this decade for the Spurs. We still have the core pieces to win another title but players must be added and the bench has to get younger and more athletic. It starts on draft day and we can't have another disaster like 2007.

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LMAO

Bowen NEEDS to go. Seriously. As much as I love and respect (as with all the other hopeful castoffs) guy, he is not what he was two years ago. He gets LIT up by every top player. CP3 lit him up in lieu of being robbed of a spot on the Defensive 1st Team and Kobe is tearing him up as I type. He's still decent on slower, shooter types such as Peja, but we can mold plenty of younger players to do that. Ime Udoka has shown he can do Bruce's dirty work just with more offensive aptitude and a lower cap number. He will also be much more effective in his second season with the team as everyone does. He can stay, Bruce take a hike with Bobs, Finley, Vaughn, Damon and Brent Barry. I think with the Spurs in a hole with the Splitter thing (sorry, Ian Mihinnimi or however its spelled, I believe will not last long in this league. Just don't see it.) that they should keep around Kurt Thomas and Oberto as a combination to do some effective glass work and then the Spurs need to add some lowpost scoring to help Tim, who is dying out there some nights and then attack the free agent market for the much needed youth. Some things I could suggest:

Front Court (Reasonable) Top tier:
Luol Deng will be a restricted FA and with Chicago having to deal with his and Gordon's contracts and the first pick, maybe he will be expendable with Beasley possibly on the horizon. He would be a nice scoring compliment in the post and is a decent rebounder. He could be had.

Andris Biedrins-Restricted too, but man! He fits the system and is young and getting very good. I doubt Golden State lets him slip away but with Monta Ellis and Baron Davis needing to get paid, never say never and his cap number would be lower than Deng's.
Lower level : Eduardo Najera, thats all who could really fit well into the system. Najera would be a great fit.

Backcourt: This is where a closer would fit well. I know alot of people don't like Corey Magette but with all the laughable shit names people throw around here I can't see a better combination of scoring, rebounding and defense on the FA list with a good cap number. He would also be what the Spurs really need, a closer. Or Ginobili could be the closer. Either way, with a scorer of his caliber, the Spurs scoring woes would definitely soothe. His rebounding ability is great for a guy thats 6'6.

Role players: Earl Boykins would be a great offensive backup at point guard, Jarmario Moon and Kenyon Dooling would be great off the bench and could be molded into decent defenders. I dunno, but no one on the current roster outside the Big 3 are an answer with the exception of Thomas and Udoka.

Bowen is still servicable. He did as good as a job as you could do on Kobe.

Brent Barry showed me a lot this series. That boy can still play and knock down 3's.

I would like to keep Kurt Thomas (albeit undersized) because he's heady, plays D, and knocks down 15 footers.

Although Horry is my boy, he and Fin have to go.

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Originally Posted by timvp

Bowen is the one Spur who hasn't looked tired or slowed in the playoffs at all. He plays like he's the youngest guy in the rotation.

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He just can't score and "holds" Kobe to the same point total as anyone else who guards him in the NBA.