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Crickets from the right...
A new national poll suggests Barack Obama is widening his lead over John McCain in the race for the White House.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll out Monday afternoon suggests that the country's financial crisis, record low approval ratings for President Bush and a drop in the public's perception of McCain's running mate could be contributing to Obama's gains.
Fifty-three percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing Obama for president, with 45 percent supporting McCain.
That 8-point lead is double the 4-point lead Obama held in the last CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll, taken in mid-September.
Monday's CNN national Poll of Polls -- incorporating our new CNN survey, as well as new tracking numbers from Gallup and Hotline taken October 3-5-- shows Obama leading McCain by 7 points -- at 50 to 43 percent.
President Bush may be part of the reason why Obama's making gains. Only 24 percent of those polled approve of Bush's job as president, an all-time low for a CNN survey. See the latest polling
"Bush has now tied Richard Nixon's worst rating ever, taken in a poll just before he resigned in 1975, and is only 2 points higher than the worst presidential approval rating in history, Harry Truman's 22 percent mark in February 1952," says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
And that's bad news for McCain, because the poll suggests a growing number of Americans believe the Republican presidential nominee would have the same policies as the current Republican president. Fifty-six percent say McCain's policies would be the same as Bush, up from 50 percent a month ago.
The financial crisis also appears to be contributing to Obama's increased lead in the poll. Sixty-eight percent are confident in the Democratic presidential nominee's ability to handle the financial crisis, 18 points ahead of McCain, and 42 points ahead of Bush.
More Americans appear to have an unfavorable view of Gov. Sarah Palin, and that may also be helping Obama in the fight for the presidency. Forty percent now have an unfavorable view of Palin, up from 27 percent a month ago and from 21 percent in late August, when McCain surprised many people by picking the first-term Alaska governor as his running mate.
"A majority of Americans now believe that Sarah Palin would be unqualified to serve as president if it became necessary, and her unfavorable rating has doubled," Holland said.
Another hurdle for the Arizona senator is expectations. Six in 10 questioned in the poll predict that Obama will win the November election.
The poll was conducted Friday through Sunday, just after President Bush signed the $700 billion federal bailout into law. By a 53 percent to 46 percent margin, Americans oppose the bill.
"One in five might have supported a different bill, but one in three believe that the government should have stayed out of the crisis completely and let the markets attempt to recover on their own.
"A majority think that the bailout package will not prevent the economy from going into a deep and prolonged recession -- but they turn thumbs-down to another bailout package if this one does not work. Only one in five would support more assistance beyond Friday's $700 billion package," Holland said.
The CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll was conducted by telephone on October 3-5. The survey questioned 1,006 people. The survey's sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The Poll of Polls does not have a sampling error.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/...lls/index.html
Crickets from the right...
Palin's crowd gathering abilities counterbalance these shady poll results.
ask kerry what he thinks about polls
if obama loses the dems need to shut it down. you would have to question if a picture of McCain and Bin Laden having tea would even help?
Actually this very day in 2004 Kerry was down in electoral college numbers....
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...aps/Oct06.html
Kerry was virtually tied with Bush in most battleground states or trailing by a point. This is starting to take on a look of a landslide. We shall see.....
Poll fight! Zogby has it at Obama +4, within their margin of error.
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/z...05/137437.html
True, but the polls flipped around a lot in October 2004, which is why I'm sure Obama isn't getting complacent, even if some of his supporters are.
Here's the same site from November 1st, 2004:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp200...aps/Nov01.html
Oh trust me I'm not. I saw that lead evaporate for him quick as after the convention, and would be lying if I said I wasn't nervous even though I was sure it was due to a convention bounce. I just think we are dealing with a much better run campaign this time around, and a overall smarter canididate.
That race was still too close to call even though they were giving Kerry FL, OH. I mean to be honest that close to the election with only 1 point separating the two candidates, they would had been better off just putting FL and OH into the tied column. Kerry had to play catch-up and thats the same thing McCain has to do this time around.
The McCain campaign announced Sarah Palin is set to make a stop in North Carolina Tuesday night, two days after the Republican VP candidate stumped in Nebraska — two reliably red states that haven't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in at least three decades.
Palin's most recent travel schedule is the latest indication Barack Obama and the nation's ailing economy have put John McCain on the defensive, even in states where the prospect of a Democratic win was unthinkable only four years ago.
Palin's visit to North Carolina comes as most recent polls of the state show Obama and McCain essentially in a dead heat there. A CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation poll of North Carolina last month showed the candidates dead even, while some recent polls have even suggested a slight Democratic lead. CNN/Time Magazine/Opinion Research Corporation will release a new North Carolina poll Tuesday afternoon.
Then there’s the unknown variable of an anticipated rise in turnout in the African-American community. In 2006 that voting bloc made up 26 percent of North Carolina's electorate, with 85 percent voting for Sen. John Kerry. Obama is expected to win an even higher percentage of the black vote this cycle, with a higher expected turnout as well.
"The North Carolina of today is far more diverse than the North Carolina of twenty or even ten years ago," CNN Political Research Alan Silverleib said. "The state’s changing economy has attracted thousands of new voters willing to pull the lever for a Democratic nominee. Second, the state’s sizable African-American voting bloc is extremely energized by Obama’s candidacy. Third, the economic downturn has made Tar Heel voters — just like voters in the rest of the country — much more receptive to the Democratic message of change."
Palin's appearance in the state comes more than five months after McCain held his last public event there, delivering a speech in early May at Wake Forest on his vision for judicial appointments. The event came the same day as Indiana and North Carolina's Democratic primaries and was largely overshadowed by the still-ongoing battle between Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton.
McCain-Palin spokesman Ben Porritt said Monday the campaign remains confident the Republican ticket will carry the state.
"This is a state that Barack Obama has put millions of dollars into," he said. "This is an opportunity to speak to our supporters there and makes sure they turn out."
Porritt also declined to say whether McCain has any plans to visit North Carolina before Election Day.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
I see what you were referring too though. OH for instance went from 49-43% Kerry on the 24th, to 47-42% Bush on the 25th...
That poll is SO last week...
In 04 the race was virtually tied up till the 4th. To close to call........
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/...oll/index.html
I think CBS has a poll that shows Obama/Biden up by 4 among likely voters...so, for those that follow polls, that's so today.
Well, technically, since last week ended Saturday, you're right, but the latest poll data was October 3, only 3 days ago, the same day that the originally posted Gallup Poll began, (10/3-5).That poll is SO last week...
Apology for your misrepresentation is accepted.
Last edited by PixelPusher; 10-06-2008 at 10:17 PM.
Because of the economic crisis/bailout the polls are reflecting Bush vs Obama. I expect to see the polls tighten quite a bit over the next few weeks if McCain does well in the debates.
Keep in mind the polls are weighted heavily democratic because of the increased registration. Much of this is new AA and youth voters. The big unknown is if these voters will actually turn out to vote. Historically they don't. If they do this time then it's over for McCain, if not we'll be talking about President McCain and why the polls were so wrong?
Good point! You can wear a rock the Obama shirt all you want, or say who you plan to vote for if/when someone calls to survey you. Thats pretty easy to do.
Aww, too bad, you didn't beat the edit time limit with the picture change.
Maybe you can do a slide presentation.
Wait 'til they hear about Ayers!
Wait, they already did?
And they don't give a ?
God damn America![/desperate board Republicans]
I thought this one conveyed "cherry picker" better than the old one, but I can go back and dig it up if you'd like.Aww, too bad, you didn't beat the edit time limit with the picture change.
Maybe you can do a slide presentation.
I hesitate to burst the bubble of over-confidence that seems to be building around these polls but,...
From Slate, Sept 2000:
"Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points.
It’s fashionable at this stage to caution that “anything can happen,” that Bush is “retooling,” and that the numbers can turn in Bush’s favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can’t. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over."
Zogby Interactive polls are different form Zogby polls and are considered a joke through out the polling community. I'll let you do some research to find out way.
Tell us what's wrong with this one, Oh Great and Wonderful Poll Expert:
CBS Poll: Presidential Race Tightens
Fake but accurate? What?
Nothing's wrong with that one. Don't confuse me with yourself or Whottt. I don't make excuse for polls. There is a reason ZI is considered horrible, you're free to research it if you'd like. You're also free to look at a single poll because you like its numbers better. You're free to do whattttttttttttttevver you'd like Yoni.
But like I said, nothing inherently incorrect about this poll.
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