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Reed is the one guy I would actually want SA to trade up for. Ive been on Reed to Spurs as my best case for a while now personally.
I truly think people are just totally overthinking it with Sheppard. It’s even more puzzling considering this team’s needs…he just so perfectly fits what we’re missing.
Clear #1 target IMO and if we manage to land him I’ll be thrilled.
Reed is the one guy I would actually want SA to trade up for. Ive been on Reed to Spurs as my best case for a while now personally.
That seems to be the only way to get him. Wonder what the Wizards would want for #2.
Theres nothing WAS would want IMO since they want Sarr and trading 2 for 4 would mean HOU could take Sarr. Only way Wash would trade is if Clingan went first and they legitimately like Risacher and Sarr equally and are guaranteed one of them. But from what we are seeing, that seems highly unlikely and they want Sarr badly.
So it would mean trading with ATL most likely or HOU way less likely.
The optimistic scenario for Spurs getting Reed is this: ATL takes Clingan, WAS take Sarr and HOU trades their 3rd pick and someone who really wants Risacher or Buzelis comes in and takes them at 3 and Reed naturally falls to 4.
Other than that, it means likely trading pick 8+ATL 25 for pick one or pick 4+8 for pick 1 none of which thrills me
If Sarr goes #1 to ATL, or another team via trade, I could see Washington being open to moving back. But if Sarr is there at #2, I agree.
For sure - in that scenario I can see them being open to trade but that seems really unlikely at this point.
In case anyone was interested, the Dunc'd On podcast's scouting report on Sheppard had Duncan believing in Sheppard as an NBA point guard and Leroux more doubtful
Does Reed have All-Star potential? I don't want a spot up shooting specialist with a top 4 pick...
Only if he's the next all-time great shooter.
Not Steph level, but Klay/Ray level while being a solid playmaker.
I actually like the TJ McConnell with elite 3pt shooting as realistic comparison.
TJ McConnell is really selling Sheppard short. He’s bigger, more athletic, and a more dynamic offensive player capable of scoring from almost anywhere on the court.
I think McConnell is closer to Sheppard’s floor than his median outcome. And I absolutely think Sheppard has all-star potential…questioning whether he’s just a spot up shooter is silly - just watch some highlights and you can clearly see he’s more than that. He’ll have to prove that he’s capable of consistently breaking down defenses and generating offense on his own, but his ability to move without the ball and shoot without being stationary shouldn’t really be a question. He’s the perfect type of guy to have next to Wemby as defenses will be forced to choose between leaving Wemby in single coverage vs. worrying about Sheppard getting open if Wemby gets doubled.
Frankly, I don't see Sheppard making any All-Star team. He's going to be a very good role-player if things work out.
He never wowwed me in all the games I saw of Kentucky. Well, definitely plays here or there. Fantastic hands, a money jump shot, and a couple games (MS State) he took over. But he rarely seemed like "wow, that guy!" to me, he never dominated.
The player who dominated at times for Kentucky? The other short guy.
As much as I like Sheppard, I think that McConnell with JJ Red 's jumper is probably at least median if not an above median outcome for him. Especially if you're looking at TJ McConnell these last 2 years, he's been an 18/10/5 per 36 minute guy on 50/40/80 shooting with a +2 BPM. This is all with an incredibly low volume 3 point shooting. His main limitation to not playing more minutes is his complete inability to space the floor. Give that guy a 40% 3 point jumper on 7-8 attempts per 36 and that's an all star player to me. Reed's got a ways to go with regards to POA defense, increasing his shooting volume, and limiting his turnovers before he turns into that player.
Fair enough - maybe I’m underselling what TJ McConnell with an elite jumper would be.
My point remains that I don’t think there’s any way Sheppard is just a “lowly” spot-up shooting role player in the NBA, and I don’t think him becoming an all-star is some crazy outlier outcome at all. It’s certainly not his base case but it doesn’t take a wild imagination to see him becoming one. I feel like a lot of people on this board think there’s no ceiling with Sheppard and that him being anything more than a role player is highly unlikely.
Hornacek is still the most reasonable 70th percentile outcome that I've seen - doesn't require insane development in his handle, shotmaking, or defense, and the guy was a 1 time all-star and the third best player on multiple contenders, and good enough to be the centerpiece for a Barkley trade. I think that's a reasonable compromise between those who say "bench spot up shooter" and "steve nash"
And I think that type of outcome is extremely valuable for a franchise that already found their clear #1 guy. For other teams, I can see trying to take a gamble on someone with maybe a little juicier upside. For the Spurs Sheppard just so clearly seems like an impeccable fit IMO.
They're both 6'1" - 6'2"
Are you claiming he is way more muscular or what?
Sheppard does have more hops for sure.
But can he use the hops in a real life NBA game?
All kinds of former Slam Dunk Contest open gym type leapers who didn't become big in the NBA/
McConnell was 6’0.5” without shoes at the combine. Sheppard is 6’1.75”.
Oh a whole inch taller.
Sign him up.
Now can he defend fast guards? Taller guards?
Sheppard is going to have the same problem with size Dillingham will have.Oh a whole inch taller.
Sign him up.
Now can he defend fast guards? Taller guards?
His team defense will be much better. His random play making on defense will be very good.
But he got wrecked by Dalton Knecht, who liked like a giant next to him. Sheppard has trouble navigating screens.
Sheppard could have helped against Gohlke versus Oakland but wasn't fast enough and kept getting picked off.
The player who stayed with Gohlke, this guy constantly moving and bombing away, the only guy who could keep alongside him, was Dillingham.
I'm not nec totally down on Sheppard or Dilly pickle, but beezus with these glaring weaknesses is it way to much to ask for another....
Manu GNob?
I really love the idea of somehow moving up to 5 to have back-to-back picks, but IMO, trying to land Sheppard and Castle is the most unlikely to be achieved scenario because it requires the complicity of the two teams most likely to have those guys at the top of their boards. If you take Castle, DET isn't trading with you to take Reed, and if you take Reed, CHA isn't trading with you to take Castle. DET and CHA each are probably not too interested in helping you snake their guy, either.
I think the best chance you have of securing a trade for 5 is if Risacher and Reed both go Top3, and DET isn't too psyched about Buzelis, giving you an opportunity to grab Castle and Buz. That will leave Clingan for CHA or POR, but if CHA takes Clingan it really leaves Williams for POR, unless they go Salaun (or DET likes Salaun).
If Castle goes Top-3, then the CHA pick is probably in play (assuming Clingan and Sarr go 1-2) where you take Reed at 4, and then move up to CHA to take Buz after DET goes Risacher (or vice versa).
While I love the idea of moving to 5 or 6... I don't think it's really all that likely for these reasons and SA might have to overpay more than originally estimated.
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