Reed Sheppard - 2024 NBA Draft Prospect

[Obstructed_View]

Reading over what everyone here thinks and wants, I'm going to laugh so hard when the Spurs select Salaun with the 4th pick.

Unless the Spurs decide to reach for another Josh Primo, most of us will be happy with anyone who is useful to the team.

[SpursBills]

The challenge with Reed at 4 is not a high ceiling. He's a statistical darling and I'm not against him at 4, but very curious how his intangibles carry over. If not, could be too close to a Jared McCain.

Interestingly, I'm much higher on McCain than consensus as well. The only question is whether / how much of his playmaking was masked playing next to Proctor and Roach since he was the only off-ball player that Duke had. Very similar numbers to CJ McCollum as a playmaker at the same age and for me that's his 70th percentile comp. He's checks quite a few boxes:

1. Jumper that's just as good as Sheppard - McCain took more difficult shots at a higher volume, shoots close to 90% from the FT, and his 3PT% was still well above 40

2. Stronger than most guards - his half court rim percentages were excellent among guard prospects - better than Sheppard, Dillingham, and Castle. Also he's built like a brick wall, that strength should hold up in the playoffs where he's getting bumped off his spots more and calls come less frequently

3. Above average guard rebounder - OREB% was actually very similar to Devin Carter; total rebounds/100 eclipse Sheppard, Dillingham, Collier, Cody Williams (lol)

4. Compe ive as and raises his performance for big games - the only guard prospect that noticeably improved against top 50 and top 100 compe ion - FTR went up, EFG% went up, AST% went up, rim finishing went up, BPM went way up. Went out with a bang in the final 4 with 32/6 against NC State. Contrast that with Castle whose offensive numbers completely crater against top 100 and top 50 compe ion

I have him around 6 on my big board, very close to Devin Carter. I'm basically very low on all the wings this year and high on the combo guards - 3/4 of whom (Castle, Sheppard, McCain) have their playmaking masked playing behind or with at least one other lead guard. I'd have absolutely no problem taking McCain at 8 if the Spurs ended up missing out on Sheppard and instead took Castle at 4.

[Vienna]

Interestingly, I'm much higher on McCain than consensus as well. The only question is whether / how much of his playmaking was masked playing next to Proctor and Roach since he was the only off-ball player that Duke had. Very similar numbers to CJ McCollum as a playmaker at the same age and for me that's his 70th percentile comp. He's checks quite a few boxes:

1. Jumper that's just as good as Sheppard - McCain took more difficult shots at a higher volume, shoots close to 90% from the FT, and his 3PT% was still well above 40

2. Stronger than most guards - his half court rim percentages were excellent among guard prospects - better than Sheppard, Dillingham, and Castle. Also he's built like a brick wall, that strength should hold up in the playoffs where he's getting bumped off his spots more and calls come less frequently

3. Above average guard rebounder - OREB% was actually very similar to Devin Carter; total rebounds/100 eclipse Sheppard, Dillingham, Collier, Cody Williams (lol)

4. Compe ive as and raises his performance for big games - the only guard prospect that noticeably improved against top 50 and top 100 compe ion - FTR went up, EFG% went up, AST% went up, rim finishing went up, BPM went way up. Went out with a bang in the final 4 with 32/6 against NC State. Contrast that with Castle whose offensive numbers completely crater against top 100 and top 50 compe ion

I have him around 6 on my big board, very close to Devin Carter. I'm basically very low on all the wings this year and high on the combo guards - 3/4 of whom (Castle, Sheppard, McCain) have their playmaking masked playing behind or with at least one other lead guard. I'd have absolutely no problem taking McCain at 8 if the Spurs ended up missing out on Sheppard and instead took Castle at 4.

as declared on several occasions, I'm also a member of the McCain Club. yes, the combine was a bit disappointing regarding height (I was hoping for like 6'3" and 6'8" wingspan), but didn't change my general view.
so, if the Spurs are in position to choose between him and Sheppard at pick #8, I would pick McCain.
just to add something to your points (to your point 1): tough shots. this is confirmed statistically. I don' remember who brought it up, I think it was Stayman on the locked on podcast, McCain's shooting shows a crazy anomaly as his percentage on guarded 3s was something like 44% and was much higher than unguarded 3s (this was like 40%). almost as if this kids needs a hand in his face to bring the best out of his shooting. he also made such shots from 5 feet behind the line.
so, if there was something like a tough shot statistic, I'm pretty sure he would be on top. and that's something that for sure would translate to the NBA.

[CGD]

Steve Kerr shot .573 from deep in his senior year at Arizona.

Wow, wild to think Steve Kerr was the 50th pick in the 1988 draft. He’s come a long way.

[CGD]

I’m warming to Reed with the 8th pick. I wouldn’t waste 4 on him though. Take the best wing at 4 and best PG at 8.

[onechance87]

I’m warming to Reed with the 8th pick. I wouldn’t waste 4 on him though. Take the best wing at 4 and best PG at 8.

and who is the best wing and pg

[mo7888]

and who is the best wing and pg

Best wings are Buzelis and Risacher

Best PG's are Sheppard and Castle

[CGD]

and who is the best wing and pg

My views on Castle at 4 are known. If Castle isn’t there at 4, there is a good chance ZR falls to 4. Spurs will take him there in an heartbeat. If both Castle and ZR are gone I’m looking hard at Buz (assuming somehow Sarr didn’t drop).

At 8 there will be a lot of PG options who will be fine. There won’t be much of a talent separation honestly.

[dbestpro]

Sheppard or Castle will be at 4. I prefer Sheppard. I also would like to see Knecht at 8. The offensive versatility would be amazing. They could bring back the beautiful game.

[BatManu20]

Sheppard to Houston almost seems to be getting telegraphed at this point. Makes me think it's not gonna happen tbh. Still think they're gonna try and move that pick for a win-now player.

Like I said tbh. I think this is legit. Clingan or a trade at 3 for the Rockets.

[BatManu20]

Question then becomes do PATFO value Sheppard over Castle. Cause Reed definitely ain’t falling to #8.

[SpursFan86]

Question then becomes do PATFO value Sheppard over Castle. Cause Reed definitely ain’t falling to #8.

I think it’d be a huge mistake to not go Sheppard at 4 in that scenario.

Get our shooter, and then at 8 take whoever they like most out of Castle/Buzelis/Holland/Williams/Knecht/Salaun. Castle would be the dream obviously but at least 3 of those guys are pretty much guaranteed to be there.

[DPG21920]

Reed is who I want more than anyone in this draft

[BatManu20]

Castle’s my guy in this draft, but I agree in this hypothetical scenario, it’d be hard to pass on Reed. Will be an interesting situation if it comes to fruition tbh.

[SpursFan86]

The only way I think it makes any sense to go with Castle at 4 is if you’re also very high on Dillingham. Liking Castle + Dillingham more than, say, Sheppard + Williams is fine. But if we take a non-shooter at 4 and then another non-shooter at 8 it’ll be frustrating.

I guess Castle + Knecht is an option but Knecht is quite a bit less exciting than Dillingham.

[DPG21920]

Castle’s my guy in this draft, but I agree in this hypothetical scenario, it’d be hard to pass on Reed. Will be an interesting situation if it comes to fruition tbh.

Good news is if broke this way SA could get both Reed and Castle (either with Castle falling to 8 or by trading up using 8 + something with DET or CHA)

[Mr. Body]

The only way I think it makes any sense to go with Castle at 4 is if you’re also very high on Dillingham. Liking Castle + Dillingham more than, say, Sheppard + Williams is fine. But if we take a non-shooter at 4 and then another non-shooter at 8 it’ll be frustrating.

I guess Castle + Knecht is an option but Knecht is quite a bit less exciting than Dillingham.

Just get the best player available, which is Castle, a brilliant fit, and figure out the next step from there. If it's Carter, then that's totally great with me. You get two hard-ass players who will bust people's chops. Start truly regaining the shut-em-down Spurs culture. Better than taking sickly leper Cody Williams or otherwise.

[mo7888]

Good news is if broke this way SA could get both Reed and Castle (either with Castle falling to 8 or by trading up using 8 + something with DET or CHA)

Sheppard + Castle might very well be the best case scenario. I'd love that..

[TD 21]

I'd select Sheppard over Castle without thinking twice, but my sense is the only player the Spurs would select over Castle is Risacher (and obviously it's highly unlikely he's available at 4).

[SpursFan86]

I'd select Sheppard over Castle without thinking twice, but my sense is the only player the Spurs would select over Castle is Risacher (and obviously it's highly unlikely he's available at 4).

I’m not so sure it’s highly unlikely at this point. I mean it’s less than 50% but 1/2/3 going Clingan/Sarr/Sheppard isn’t a major long shot IMO.

[rascal]

Good news is if broke this way SA could get both Reed and Castle (either with Castle falling to 8 or by trading up using 8 + something with DET or CHA)

You aren't getting Castle at 8.

[DPG21920]

You aren't getting Castle at 8.

Well then you trade up if you need to.

[DPG21920]

Sucks because im 99% sure Reed is going in the top 3 and it will probably be HOU if they don’t trade that pick. I think Reed is probably the best player in this draft for Spurs so it really annoys me that HOU is likely going to get him and hes a great fit there

[rascal]

Sucks because im 99% sure Reed is going in the top 3 and it will probably be HOU if they don’t trade that pick. I think Reed is probably the best player in this draft for Spurs so it really annoys me that HOU is likely going to get him and hes a great fit there

Don't worry so much. Reed is going to be nothing more than a player who comes off the bench with a limited role.