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Yeah, the way the pattern is setting up, that sounds about right. The east coast usually gets more of the later season storms due to troughs that start digging in at the begining of fall.
Before the summer started, they actually predicted that the area of highest concern was from La. to Alabama for the summer months.
Two storms into the area, looks pretty accurate.
Now they are shifting their predictions to the east coast, and predicting with a high confidence level that a storm will go into the Carolinas before this storm season is over.
They also think that Florida and Texas have a "moderate chance" of getting a storm in the next two months.
Given their accuracy the last year and a half, this isn't good news.
Yeah, the way the pattern is setting up, that sounds about right. The east coast usually gets more of the later season storms due to troughs that start digging in at the begining of fall.
Actually they were kind of crappy with Katrina. They did not think it would hit Fl as a hurricane, it did. They didn't think when it left Florida it would turn to La it did. They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's .
Except they need to do it like this
GET THE OUT in big giant letters next time on TV...
haha (sorry it was so funny I could not resist)
Oh thats bull . The NHC has done very well in all of the hurricane forcasts this year. If you want them to tell you a week ahead of time you're better off calling Miss Cleo. They gave NO a 60 hour forcast, and that is damn good as far as hurricanes go.
They didn't forecast the eye's landing, they didn't forecast Katrina becoming a cat 1 when it hit FL and killed nine people.
What?They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's .
They told NO to get out on Friday, it hit on Monday, NO had about 80 hours lead time, but it still took Max Mayfield (Director of the NHS) calling Nagin on Saturday night begging for him to get everyone out to make it happen.
As for NHC being Katrina's " ", they were 15 miles off on their prediction of landfall. When a storm is 300 miles wide, I'd say that's pretty damn accurate.
Do you realize that the line between a Catagory 1 and a strong tropical storm is 1 mph? That is the difference you are using to distingush good and bad forcasting.
It is impossible to pinpoint an eye landing. That is why they have the cone of reasonable uncertainty on eveyr single forcast.
Yeah, you're wanting miracles and the NHC isn't going to be the best place to look for those.
And that cone of uncertainty is what kept people from leaving, and what probably kept the mayor from evacuating.
You don't think being within 15 miles of the eye's landing is accurate enough?
Jesus Christ, our weather get the weather right about 15% of the time, the NHC was within 15 miles. And with a hurricane like this, 15 miles don't really matter jack .
And that is ing stupid. If the NHC center says leave, you ing leave. But you saying they didn't do well is absolute . The forcasts this year have been very accurate and far more accurate than any other point in human history.
You're a ing idiot. NHC told everyone to get out Friday morning. Mayor ed around until Sunday 7 AM, but only after the director of the NHC called him personally and said "a lot of people are going to die unless you pull your ing head out."And that cone of uncertainty is what kept people from leaving, and what probably kept the mayor from evacuating.
Trainwreck, sometimes it's better to walk away from a losing argument. This is one of those times.
Friday morning????
9am
KATRINA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
11 am
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
2 pm
KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TONIGHT OR
SATURDAY.
11pm
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FLORIDA BAY AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM KEY LARGO SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO KEY WEST
INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.
NO os noticibly absent
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...lic.015.shtml?
final report on friday, no mention of land
48 hours before cane
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2005
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
25.3N 87.6W 42 X X X 42 NEW ORLEANS LA X 3 13 3 19
26.7N 89.0W 17 12 X X 29 NEW IBERIA LA X 1 12 5 18
28.6N 89.9W X 15 7 1 23 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 7 7 14
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 GALVESTON TX X X 6 6 12
JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 FREEPORT TX X X 4 6 10
SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 2 5 7
CHARLESTON SC X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 3 4
VENICE FL X X 1 2 3 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 2 2
TAMPA FL X X 1 2 3 GULF 29N 85W X 3 5 3 11
CEDAR KEY FL X X 2 3 5 GULF 29N 87W 1 8 7 2 18
ST MARKS FL X X 3 6 9 GULF 28N 89W 3 18 3 X 24
APALACHICOLA FL X 1 5 5 11 GULF 28N 91W X 15 6 1 22
PANAMA CITY FL X 1 6 5 12 GULF 28N 93W X 4 10 3 17
PENSACOLA FL X 1 9 5 15 GULF 28N 95W X X 6 4 10
MOBILE AL X 1 10 6 17 GULF 27N 96W X X 2 4 6
GULFPORT MS X 2 12 4 18 GULF 25N 96W X X 1 1 2
BURAS LA X 8 11 2 21
I may be reading this wrong but is it saying it has a higher probability of hitting Pensacola?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005...lty.017.shtml?
You know absolutely nothing about forcasting and it is apparent. You posted what the storm was DOING not what it was going to do.
Come on guys chill a little...
Friday morning
ORRECTED INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES THROUGH 36 HOURS
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY FROM DRY TORTUGAS NORTHWARD... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD
TO LONGBOAT KEY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
WEST COAST FROM NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ANCLOTE KEY. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 82.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
No mention of LA enlighten me
Just so you don't have to go looking the first mention of a hurricane watch is saturday at 10am
This is exactly why you shouldn't argue a point with half facts.
Do you want to continue?
Yeah because it wasn't moving towards LA hence the bolding of the southwest.
Big ing deal. What a storm is doing today doens't mean it is going to be doing the same thing tomorrow. The storm WAS moving in that direction at that time, but they were telling you later on in the dicussion what it was going to do.
Forcasting is the predicting of the what is going to happen int he future, not now.
Not friday morning, therefore not relevent to my argument
You can't read? 2 models were already pointed to Louisiana on the 12z run on Friday. That is 8am EDT.
And regardless of the situation, if you want to say they didn't have it Friday morning they sure as had it nailed by Friday afternoon, and that is still 60 hours before the hurricane landfall. 60 ing hours!
Lousiana was in the cone on Friday morning, so they should have been aware of the storm and keeping in an eye on it either way. Sure, they coudln't tell you what 20 mile segment of beach was going to see the eye that early, but (and I don't know how many times I have to tell you this) hurricane forcasting doesn't work that way.
The NHC did nail this, and you're wrong as all .
Your argument has jack to do with Friday morning.
Actually, the eye did go over the east side of New Orleans. Moral of the story? You're my .Actually they were kind of crappy with Katrina. They did not think it would hit Fl as a hurricane, it did. They didn't think when it left Florida it would turn to La it did. They thought for sure the eye would hit NO, at the last second it turns. Moral of the story NHC was Katrina's .
The item you quote friday 11 am says the majority of the models having it hitting notheast gulf coast, i don't think I read it wrong. Maybe I didn't understand it correctly.
See, I was asking how they had known on friday. I think there's a misconception here. In quoting the NHC do ents I was refuting the friday morning argument.
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