Poll results are based on telephone interviews with 615 registered voters who watched the presidential debate September 30, 2004. Before the debate, 52% of voters supported Bush, while 44% supported Kerry.
Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate: John Kerry or George W. Bush?
Kerry 53%
W 37%
Neither 01%
Both/Equally 08%
Gallup
The numbers don't spin.
...Other numbers...
How has your opinion of John Kerry been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Kerry more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
More Favorable 46%
Less Favorable 13%
Not Changed Much 41%
How has your opinion of George W. Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of Bush more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?
More Favorable 21%
Less Favorable 17%
Not Changed Much 62%
Indeed they dont
http://www.gallup.com/election2004/
GEORGE W. BUSH 52
JOHN KERRY 44
Sept. 24-26, 2004
Based on Likely Voters
I dont think Bush dropped that much. Then again I haven't seen the debate yet, but from what I have heard on TV he didn't shoot himself in the foot.
With the 6.5+ point built in edge for W that would make the actual poll
Kerry 50.5
W 52
That was pre-debate, and so a week ago. Can't wait to see the new numbers, if the Gallup post debate poll is any indicatorGEORGE W. BUSH 52
JOHN KERRY 44
Sept. 24-26, 2004
Based on Likely Voters
BAMM!
Numbers do spin. That was not a good poll. (I have many years of media stats behind me.)
The numbers don't spin.
1. It was a sample of registered voters.
2. The sample size was too small
3. There were more pro-Kerry people polled, than pro-Bush people.
4. What you failed to mention is that Bush is still found more likable, Bush is still more believable and Bush is still the one who has demonstrated he is the one tough enough for the job.
5. Polls that are conducted entirely in one day (like this) have a much higher level of bias in the results.
Sorry - this poll cannot be counted on.
Ohhhh! I get it!! They don't spin THIS time!
It comes as absolutely no surprise to me anymore that you support Kerry.
Something danny didn't post:
Those two sentences sum up why Kerry will lose the election as well as why the debate was not success for Kerry some think it was simply because he 'looked good.'Viewers leaned toward Bush on which candidate agreed with them on issues, who was more believable, and who was more likable. And by 54% to 37%, viewers said Bush better demonstrated he is tough enough for the job.
The "SERVED" emoticon from the old board would be quite appropriate here. Hey Kori, why don't you add it to the list of smilies?
Did you even read the original post? Respondants were 52-44 in favor of Bush before the debate.3. There were more pro-Kerry people polled, than pro-Bush people.
n/m, I re-read it.
...and Bush remained ahead of Kerry after the debate. So nothing changes but Kerry could say the wrong stuff inconsistently in a more eloquent manner.Respondants were 52-44 in favor of Bush before the debate.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/content/d....aspx?ci=13237
2004 Sep 30
(sorted by advantage for Kerry)
Kerry
Bush
Advantage
%
%
pct. pts.
Expressed himself more clearly
60
32
+28
Had a good understanding of the issues
41
41
0
Agreed with you more on the issues you care about
46
49
-3
Was more believable
45
50
-5
Was more likable
41
48
-7
Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job
37
54
-17
+
Advantage indicates Kerry lead
-
Advantage indicates Bush lead
Interestingly enough, Kerry was found to have expressed himself more clearly, yet Bush was "more believable" and "more likable."
Yep, sounds like a clear and convincing victory for Kerry to me.
Hey dipwad, those are the national numbers before the debate, not the numbers of that sample size.Did you even read the original post? Respondants were 52-44 in favor of Bush before the debate.
http://www.nationalreview.com/thecor...ive.asp#040956
But...but...he spoke so well.Since 1984, when Gallup began asking the question, “Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate?”, only one candidate to win this measure in the first debate went on to be elected. In 1996, Bill Clinton “won” the first debate and went on to be elected President. Candidates Gore, Perot, Dukakis, and Mondale all “won” their first debates, but failed to win election.
Sept. 30, 2004: Kerry 53/ Bush 37 (-16)
Oct. 3, 2000: Gore 48/Bush 41 (-7)
Oct. 6, 1996 Clinton 51/Dole 32 (-19)
Oct. 11, 1992 Perot: 47/Clinton 30/ Bush 16 (-17, -31)
Sept. 28, 1998 Dukakis 38/ Bush 29 (-9)
Sept. 28-30, 1984 Mondale 54/Reagan 35 (-19)
Yeah, it's a pretty clear concensious that Gore won the first debate against W, but it wasn't the convincing victory that yesterday's display by, no, make that spanking Kerry gave W. This debate was about foreign policy, the war on terrorism and Iraq. Subjects that W. should have dominated Kerry on given his perception of being strong on defense, national security and stuff...didn't happen.
If you want to argue that W is gonna win a debate over the economy in the second debate, now that I would like to see.
Oh ok. I can't wait to see how you spin Bush's win on election night.
Perhaps it will be...look at the spanking Bush got in Connecticut! If he can't win where he went to college, was born, and where his grandfather was elected Senator from then....
W. was just happy to get through the thing without having to say the word nucular.
Oh ok. I can't wait to see how you spin Bush's win on election night.
Perhaps it will be...look at the spanking Bush got in Connecticut! If he can't win where he went to college, was born, and where his grandfather was elected Senator from then....
Gotta take it all with a grain of salt, honey. This is coming from those who had basically a virtual orgasm over the ramblings of an 86 year old partisan typing pool lady.
Huh..cyber sex?
I've never had an orgasm due to a 86 year old woman.
Kerry is still the under dog so I won't be surprised or hurt or cry if Dubya wins. I'm just going to put my "Don't blame me, I voted for Kerry" bumper sticker on and MOVE ON!
..and the polls have been getting tighter and tighter since that night.This is coming from those who had basically a virtual orgasm over the ramblings of an 86 year old partisan typing pool lady.
You can deny to yourself that Ms. Knox's appearance on 60 minutes didn't hurt W, but most of the rational thinking public knows that she was telling the truth about the contents of the W memos, and that Dan Rather made a honest mistake when he presented the memos as authentic. Something that has subsequently been supported by countless numbers of do ent experts. Despite the lack of reporting of this by any of the right-wing media.
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