http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/8...rs-can-survive
Here's how the Spurs can survive
by Randy Hill
With the defending NBA champions on the ropes, it seems like a fine time to offer a few knockout-prevention tips.
Our first bit of advice for the San Antonio Spurs is simple and obvious: Just go home. Home teams are 17-1 in the second round of the NBA playoffs, which are threatening to become far less compelling than anticipated.
It should be noted that the single road-team breakthrough did not occur in the Spurs' series with the New Orleans Hornets, so the going-home strategy may work out (at least until Game 7 in Louisiana).
But what if it's not that easy during Game 6 back in Texas? What if the Hornets decide to show up and play with the skill and urgency expected of the Western Conference's second seed?
Well, the next two words of advice seem as obvious as going home. For the record, the words are actually names: Tim Duncan.
Going home and going to Duncan — perhaps the most underrated superstar of the current NBA era — is about as good as it gets when crafting survival strategy.
Checking the results of the first five games of this series, it should be noted that Duncan has averaged 11 points per game in the three road defeats and 19 in the two home victories. To their credit, the Spurs did attempt to get Timmy involved during Game 5 in New Orleans, but his series-high 18 field-goal attempts resulted in only five makes and 10 points.
The main reason for Duncan's struggles — and the Spurs' difficulty in getting their role players quality opportunities from 3-point range — is 7-foot-1 Hornets center Tyson Chandler. Chandler, the former No. 2 overall pick straight out of Dominguez High in Compton, has been able to guard Duncan with only occasional double-team assistance. That's pretty rare and fairly damning; without a second defender arriving in Tim's work space, the Hornets have no reason to rotate over and enable the Spurs to make the extra pass that leads to a wide-open three.
So why go to Duncan if Chandler has been able to lead the Hall of Famer into 43 percent shooting? Because while Tyson does a fine job of using his length and ability to get off the floor quickly to bother Duncan, he lacks the bulk and leverage to stay out of foul trouble if Tim is able to gain satisfactory low-post position. In Game 4, for example, Duncan did this and Chandler finished with five fouls, four rebounds and two points.
Duncan scored 22.
Chandler also must perform after bruising his foot late in Game 5.
To achieve the position required to keep Chandler from locking in, the Spurs would be wise to have Duncan move across the lane into position during a ball reversal, rather than just marching to his familiar position on the left block.
-Another offensive tactic that might help against the Hornets is allowing Tony Parker to work against Chris Paul without the benefit of so many on-ball screens. Sure, this seems to be a staple maneuver of almost every NBA offense (including San Antonio's), but New Orleans does a splendid job (especially Chandler) of showing hard on this screen, misdirecting Parker and rotating when the screener attempts to slip the screen.
David West, who buried the Spurs with 38 points and 14 rebounds in Game 5, is terrific at timing his rotation to pick up the screener. With someone like Chandler jumping out on Parker until Paul can recover, it's hard for the Spurs' point guard to look over that 7-1 frame and find an open shooter on the weak side.
-The 3-happy Spurs also should resume a familiar tactic of attacking the basket. While it's assumed the home team always shoots more free throws, that theory didn't prevail the first three games of this series. But in the last two, the home team is a combined plus-23 in free-throw attempts.
It also seems to be a good thing when Parker and Manu Ginobili put pressure on the defense by going to the hoop.
-Our first piece of defensive advice is focused on how the Spurs defend on-ball screens for Hornets point guard Chris Paul.
Simply put, Parker should continue going under until Paul starts to make them pay. When Duncan is involved with the screener, he's agile enough to step out and redirect the driving lane of the NBA's top point guard.
If the screen play can be pushed out far enough, Paul will be required to either reset or shoot an uncustomary 3. He's 2 for 5 from behind he arc in New Orleans; 0 for 3 in San Antonio.
-The Spurs should not put their entire defensive emphasis on allowing Paul and West to "get theirs" while shutting off everyone else.
While this certainly can work, Paul and West (and his sore back) are capable of dropping a combined 60. It's fine for Bruce Bowen to continue removing Hornets' sniper Peja Stojakovic from productivity and the Hornets' other role players have shot miserably in San Antonio. At 6-9, Peja has a three-inch height advantage on Bowen, but is not comfortable going to the post to exploit it.
The Paul strategy listed above should dovetail into an effort to prevent the ambidextrous West from annihilating the Spurs inside for the second consecutive game.
This slight philosophy change involves Duncan, who again was voted to the league's all-defensive team. Although Spurs coach Gregg Popovich sometimes saves Duncan for fourth-quarter duty on West, it might be a good idea to make this switch earlier, based on need.
Sure, you risk foul jeopardy with Duncan, but the Spurs are playing at home. West has demonstrated enough quickness to face up against Duncan and drive past him, but that could be adjusted by gap-and-help threats from whoever is guarding Chandler. Unless he's free to run to the hoop for a lob, Tyson is not a scoring threat from anywhere past five feet.
If the Spurs lean on their veteran wiles and play these or similar angles, they stand a strong chance of creating the need for a Game 7.
But based on that near home-team invincibility, it may not matter.
(Sidebar with article)
Three's the key
The third quarter has determined the Spurs-Hornets series so far. The eventual winner has seized control of the game right after halftime in each of the five games.
Game 3Q score Final score
1 Hornets, 29-17 Hornets, 101-82
2 Hornets, 36-18 Hornets, 102-84
3 Spurs, 29-22 Spurs, 110-99
4 Spurs, 30-19 Spurs, 100-80
5 Hornets, 28-11 Hornets, 101-79
This is actually a very good article. I agree with the vast majority of it.
When Tim is sulky, begging for calls and not playing to win on both ends of the floor this team will generally lose. We can overcome a bad game from Manu, Parker or anyone else from time to time, but Tim is the anchor and he hasn't found his groove in this series.
NBA will let Spurs win (in other words, call the game pro spurs)
Expect Chandler to get in early foul trouble, like 3 fouls by early 2nd quarter and Duncan has 30+ pts.
Parker will get a lot of calls he wasnt getting in NO.
Game 7 = $$$$$$$$$$
the big 3 need to combine for over 70 points if they win this series
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