Currently Under Contract
1 Parker
2 Ginobili
2/3 Udoka
3 Bowen
4 Duncan
4 Bonner
4/5 Mahinmi
5 Oberto
Player Options For Next Season
1 Vaughn
2 Barry
Draft Picks
1 Hill
2 Hairston
3/4 Gist
Hold Player Rights
2/3 Sanikidze
4/5 Javtokas
5 Karaulov
5 Splitter
Free Agents
1 Stoudamire
2/3 Finley
2/3 Johnson
4 Horry
4/5 Thomas
Cap Exceptions
Mid-Level Exception (~$5.5 mil)
Lower-Level Exception (~$1.9 mil)
Trade Exceptions
Beno Trade (~$1.9 mil)
Scola Trade (~$400K)
Thomas Trade (~$400K)
First, I would hope that Vaughn and Barry do not become free agents. Vaughn is almost a perfect fit as the 3rd point guard with a prospective rookie backup point. Barry becoming a free agent would create another hole to fill and at a minimum would eat into their MLE.
Second, I would re-sign Kurt Thomas. I think they can retain him for something like 2 years and $10 mil. Thomas is a solid rebounding and defensive big who should improve some in his first full season with the Spurs. Shaq is still in the Western Conference.
Third, I would count on Ian Mahinmi joining the rotation.
With Hill and Mahinmi joining the active roster and assuming the Spurs retain Vaughn, Barry, and Thomas, the Spurs would have 12 players under contract.
The primary need to fill in free agency will be someone who can start at the 2 or 3 and play approximately 25 minutes a night. At a minimum, that someone should be able to shoot, defend, run the court, and pass. It would be nice if they could score on their own. Swingmen available in free agency are:
First Tier
Corey Maggette
JR Smith (RFA)
Josh Childress (RFA)
Ron Artest
Ben Gordon (RFA)
Kelenna Azubuike (RFA)
Second Tier
James Posey
Mickael Pietrus
Ricky Davis
Sasha Vujacic (RFA)
Ryan Gomes (RFA)
Matt Barnes
Bostjan Nachbar
Carlos Delfino
Walter Herrmann (RFA)
The Rest
Tony Allen (RFA)
Maurice Evans
Gordan Giricek
Devin Brown
Antoine Wright
Derek Anderson
Kirk Snyder
Eric Piatkowski
Kareem Rush
Marcus Williams (RFA)
Quinton Ross
Ira Newble
Casey Jacobsen
Dorell Wright (RFA)
Awvee Storey
Ideally, the Spurs would be able to acquire Maggette, Childress, or Smith. Maggette seems likely to receive a contract above the MLE in a sign and trade. Smith may be available from the Luxury Tax saddled Nuggets, but that's not clear. The Hawks would likely match the Spurs' top offer (full MLE for 5 years) for Childress. Gordon will command far greater than the Spurs can afford as well as what would be prudent. Artest? Is he opting out or not? In any event, I don't see him as a Spur due to mutual non-interest.
Azubuike is interesting, if mostly for his age and potential availability. The Warriors also have Monta Ellis and Andris Biendrins as restricted free agents and seem primed to retain both. They also have Pietrus and Barnes as free agents. They may deem Azubuike too expensive to retain if he signs a large offer sheet. Then again, they may be willing to eat the short term expense in favor of keeping him long-term.
Out of the second tier, I think Posey would be the most desirable for the next couple of seasons as someone who knows how to play championship basketball and hit big shots. He is an unrestricted free agent. I would expect the Celtics to offer him close to his top free agent price and of course there will be some pressure to stay with the Champs.
Davis would be someone who could put up a good number of points a night for you, I'm just not sure if you can count on his commitment come the postseason.
Vujacic and Gomes are two players I would expect to see back with their teams unless someone signed them to a full MLE offer sheet for 5 years. But I don't see that happening.
Herrmann is a tricky call. I think Detroit matches any small offer. Of course, he's not worth a large one.
Barnes would not be a bad fit in SA. Would he want to leave Northern California? Delfino has had a less than stellar NBA career. Could it be revived in SA playing alongside two of his fellow countrymen? Nachbar would be a nice pickup, though I see him as more of a reserve 3 than anything.
I think Pietrus is the logical choice for the Spurs. He's unrestricted, which will make his acquisition considerably easier. He's athletic, long, and can shoot the 3. He's used to playing a wing spot on an up and down team which the Spurs have become more as of late.
After that, perhaps Delfino would be worth considering in a sign and trade for Bonner. But that would only make sense if the Spurs then devoted their full MLE to Eduardo Najera. Other candidates to replace Bonner would be...Robert Horry and Robertas Javtokas.
Assuming the Spurs sign a swingman outright in free agency, the Spurs will have 13 players under contract. That would leave 2 spots, likely IR spots, open. Hairston and Gist are candidates for those spots. In addition, the Spurs may consider a young free agent big for assignment in Austin. They should be able to use the LLE for this. Patrick O'Bryant is a possibility. Viktor Sanikidze might find a way onto IR with a great performance in Summerleague play as well as in training camp and the preseason.
The Spurs are looking to add some youth, athleticism, and length to their supporting cast. Their draft picks showed as much. Mahinmi falls squarely in this vein. Pietrus is the one free swingman free agent who fits this kind of profile.
I don't expect the Spurs to have much of a blockbuster free agency haul. Pietrus would be a solid pull. The Spurs don't need a superstar out of free agency. They need someone who fits the program. Pietrus isn't perfect, but then again, the Spurs don't have unlimited cap room nor unlimited resources.
Next season's opening night roster could very well look like:
Starters
1 Parker
2 Pietrus
3 Bowen
4 Duncan
5 Thomas
Bench
1 Hill
2 Ginobili
2 Barry
2/3 Udoka
4 Bonner
4/5 Mahinmi
5 Oberto
IR
1 Vaughn
Hairston or Gist
5 O'Bryant
That would give the Spurs a nice blend of youth, athleticism, and experience.
I'm sure many will complain, but this team was one normal Ginobili playoff series performance away from being back in the Finals yet again last season. Now's no time to panic.
-MB