Hollinger: 80% chance Spurs don't make playoffs

[CubanMustGo]

We all know the dude's an idiot due to his over-reliance on raw numbers above all else. Today his brilliant take is that the Spurs have less than a 1-in-5 chance of making the playoffs.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

He even calls them "Playoff Odds". If he would put his money where his mouth is we could all take advantage of his blind reliance on statistics. The fact that we've played basically the entire season without two of the big three, and that they're coming back next month, is apparently totally irrelevant.

[mathbzh]

He also said that:

So will San Antonio miss the playoffs?
The playoff odds know a team's past results and its schedule. The one big piece of information it does not know is injuries. So the fact that the Spurs are playing without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker doesn't enter into the formula; the playoff odds tool just sees a bunch of unimpressive results and reacts accordingly. If the Spurs start playing better when those two return, their playoff odds will shift quickly as the team's power ranking rises.

Hollinger may be a moron but he is not blind.

And two thread for that BIIIP is probably too much.

[41times]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

We all know the Spurs are not a deep team. We know the bench is weak. But considering the won/loss percentage of the Western teams the Spurs will only have to win about 48 games to make the playoffs.

Is there anyone out there that thinks the Spurs win less than 48 games?

[tav1]

I appreciate Hollinger, but only when balanced against reality. One can only have so many Jackie Butler mulligans. He's not nearly as dogmatic as his formulas, and I'm certain he expects to see the Spurs in the playoffs, even if his Monster doesn't.

His power rankings, by the way, have been very accurate the last two years.

[peskypesky]

Idiot!

[G-Nob]

Rodeo Trip

[peskypesky]

I wish I could make this put his money where his mouth is and bet on this.

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

We all know the Spurs are not a deep team. We know the bench is weak. But considering the won/loss percentage of the Western teams the Spurs will only have to win about 48 games to make the playoffs.

Is there anyone out there that thinks the Spurs win less than 48 games?

True. Duncan's return should help a lot.

[Dr. Gonzo]

They have been lost without Duncan.

[PeterBurns]

F.U. Hollinger.

That's perfect. Just keep on saying it.

[Trainwreck2100]

The playoff odds know a team's past results and its schedule. The one big piece of information it does not know is injuries. So the fact that the Spurs are playing without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker doesn't enter into the formula; the playoff odds tool just sees a bunch of unimpressive results and reacts accordingly. If the Spurs start playing better when those two return, their playoff odds will shift quickly as the team's power ranking rises.

So if they play the whole season without parker or manu they have an 80% chance of missing the playoffs, way to go out on a limb there

[8ft.tall.tejano]

even for as bad as things have been, when you get tp & manu back in we go back up to contender status....tweak in a big n we're on top...it's just great that hill & mason are getting all these min now to get everything down...

[FromWayDowntown]

Again, if the Spurs somehow don't revert to form -- I think they will -- and somehow miss the playoffs -- I think that unlikely -- the consequence will be that they add a lottery pick to their fold and move on accordingly.

I've said it all season, but if I rooted for any other West club, I'd be praying every day that the Spurs find some way to make the 2009 NBA Playoffs.

[Tully365]

the Spurs are playing without Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker ....

If the Spurs start playing better when those two return......

As if there's some chance that adding Parker and Ginobili might not help the Spurs to play better! I'm calling a friend in Vegas today to find out if there is an actual line on the Spurs making the playoffs. That's a bet I'm definitely willing to make.

[xtremesteven33]

Nothing to see here folks.....Spurs will make the playoffs

[duncan228]

Under the radar. Just the way we like it.

[ehz33satx]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

Since when have the Spurs been without Duncan this year? You must not be watching Spurs games at all! It's Ginobili AND Tony Parker who are out.

[I. Hustle]

I hope Duncan comes back s00n.

[Cry Havoc]

Has there been a le-season when we weren't completely doubted and overshadowed by critics at some point?

[Xylus]

I don't get what the problem is here. Hollinger's odds are based on the idea that Ginobili and Parker aren't playing the rest of the season. I don't think the Spurs would have a very good chance of making the playoffs without those two players. Tim Duncan can't carry that kind of load for a whole season.

Fortunately, those two will be back, you will make the playoffs, and in a month Hollinger's playoff odds will reflect that.

[romain.star]

on top of it, none of the West big guns have had impressive starts (except LA).
We're just 2 losses away from the 2nd spot without TP and Manu... sounds good to me !

[timaios]

I don't get what the problem is here. Hollinger's odds are based on the idea that Ginobili and Parker aren't playing the rest of the season. I don't think the Spurs would have a very good chance of making the playoffs without those two players. Tim Duncan can't carry that kind of load for a whole season.

Fortunately, those two will be back, you will make the playoffs, and in a month Hollinger's playoff odds will reflect that.

Exactly.
This is mathematics. And mathematics ignore injuries.

[SenorSpur]

I said this before. The two factors that will determine whether they make the playoffs or not are:

1. Healthy return of Manu and TP and continued good health for the duration of the season
2. How big of a hole the team has dug for itself by the time these guys get back

[Matches Malone]

He is an idiot. Look at the standings. The Spurs are almost at the 8th spot right now and that is without Ginobli and Duncan.

Once Duncan gets back they will be okay. ONce Ginobli gets back they will be even better.

We all know the Spurs are not a deep team. We know the bench is weak. But considering the won/loss percentage of the Western teams the Spurs will only have to win about 48 games to make the playoffs.

Is there anyone out there that thinks the Spurs win less than 48 games?

Pss...I think we have a Timmy-look-a-like impersonating him pretty well. Any chance we can sign this guy once Timmy returns?
Imagine that...at PF TD and at C his impersonator. Better than Drob-TD combo. Get ready the champagne.

[JamStone]

Hollinger is an idiot. That has been proven over and over.

However, I'll reiterate what some have already explained in this thread. It's not really about him or reality so much as it is odds based on what has transpired in the season "so far." Probability does not equate to fact or accurate forecasting. It's just more ESPN bull to get discussion going.

Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.

The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the SEASON SO FAR.

Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA le, win the lottery, and so on.