Mumbai attacks may destabilise Pakistan: study

[Nbadan]

An eye-for-an-eye ethic could put India and Pakistan on a path toward nuclear brinkmanship....

Mumbai attacks may destabilise Pakistan: study

* Stratfor says India, US will have joint interest in forcing Pakistan to act decisively and immediately
* Private forecaster stresses holding Pakistan responsible still an assumption, but India likely to blame foreign quarters
By Iftikhar Gilani

NEW DELHI:

Pakistan may face ‘massive destabilisation’ under pressure from India and the US as fallout of the serial terror attacks in Mumbai, a Texas-based private research agency has warned, and the attacks may also bring India and Pakistan back to the brink of a nuclear confrontation – a reference to a military standoff between the two countries in 2002 after a terrorist attack on Indian parliament.

In an analysis on the geo-political fallout of the Mumbai attacks, Strategic Forecasting (Stratfor) says, “If the attacks in Mumbai were carried out by Islamist militants – as it appears – the Indian government will have little choice, politically speaking, but to blame them on Pakistan. That will in turn spark a crisis between the two nuclear rivals that will draw the US into the fray.”

Stressing that India is already under enormous pressure to respond to the attacks, it said, “Events point to a serious crisis not simply between Pakistan and India, but within Pakistan as well – with the government caught between foreign powers and domestic realities.”

Stratfor – which specialises in providing focused insight and actionable intelligence to help governments prepare for uncertainties – says the Indians will have no choice but to be assertive, and the US is likely to follow suit.

Joint interest: “Whether it is the current government in India that reacts or the one that succeeds doesn’t matter ... given the cir stances, massive destabilisation (of Pakistan) is possible – (which is) never a good thing with a nuclear power,” says the Stratfor analysis. It says the Indians and Americans would have a ‘joint interest’ in forcing the Pakistani government ‘to act decisively and immediately’.

Daily Times

[Nbadan]

New Delhi: Two Pakistani suicide attackers, part of a group of 20-25 alleged Lashkar-e-Tayyeba operatives that launched a deadly attacks in Mumbai on Wednesday night, had checked into the Taj Mahal hotel four days earlier. This is what two of the apprehended terrorists now in Mumbai Police’s custody told Intelligence Bureau (IB) officials.

“One of the two terrorists who had checked into the Taj Hotel on November 22 was Ajmal Amir, a resident of Faridkot, Multan. The other could have been shot dead in operations,” a senior IB officer told HT after the suspects’ debriefing. “The two used false iden ies and checked into room number 630,” he added.

“The duo received several visitors between Saturday, November 22 and Wednesday, when the attacks began. These visitors carried bags probably filled with weapons and explosives.” The officer said Manjar, who was also held by police, told interrogators the group was in telephonic contact with mentors in Karachi throughout the attacks.

The suspects allegedly revealed the plan to attack Mumbai was formulated by the LeT brass a year back. They also claimed the group of men “specialised in terror training at Muzaffarabad in PoK and naval training in Karachi” from Laskhar trainers, another interrogator said.

An IB alert issued last January had claimed that a team of LeT terror team had been assigned to strike in Mumbai from sea.

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