Everybody has a 2010 Plan. Where do we fit?

[wildbill2u]

I know that all these fabulous players and some pretty decent ones get free agency in 2010.
http://www.yardbarker.com/nba/articl...hopping/389384

A lot of teams will be chasing the biggest names with the usual suspects, LA, Chicago, N.Y. Miami having the best chances to land the biggies m because of money and lifestyle issues.

I notice some players like Amare are already being shopped this year to get ready for the 2010 free agency and I suspect that the other clubs will be trying to lock in their stars before then. (Good luck, Cleveland)

Manu and Mason are up so I assume we'll try to sign them early.
Other than that what's OUR plan? Where do we fit in all this high-dollar auction that is coming up? Are we going to snipe at a lesser player while the big boys get caught up in the Superstar action?

This is gonna get craaaaazzzzy

[coyotes_geek]

Just my $0.02, but I think the Spurs 2010 plan consists of trading away their contracts that expire in 2010 in this coming offseason in 2009 for a solid player with a contract that goes beyond 2010. Manu needs a contract extension this offseason and there's no way for the Spurs to clear enough cap room to make a big splash once they give him that extension. Especially considering that the whole economic mess means that the salary cap isn't going to grow all that much between now and then. Some are projecting that the cap in 2010 might even be less than it is now.

The 2010 free agent market is going to be a good one to stay out of, IMO. Three teams are going to be very happy they got Lebron, Wade or Bosh and everyone else is going to go into a panic.

The Spurs should just give Manu a 2 year extension, go after Rasheed this offseason with a 3 year full MLE offer, punt on the whole 2010 fiasco and set themselves up for a cap run in 2012 when Duncan, Manu's and (hopefully) Rasheed's deals would expire.

[Civilfatman]

We would have to give up Manu and mason to sign any high profile free agent that summer.

If we resign Manu with a typical 8.3% increase ($11,550,000) and give Mason the midlevel ($5,500,000), we wont have more than the midlevel to give out to a free agent. The salaries on the books would equal $52.35 Million and I would assume the salary cap that year would be around $57 Million.

The 2010 free agent plan is bull , we are not signing any high profile free agents outside possibly Rasheed Wallace in 2009. Even then I think he will be like Maggette in the sense that he will be interested in us untill somebody offers him a better deal.

I think our FO is setting us up, with the flexiblity under the luxury tax, for possible trades during that summer to get a player of significance. But if that is the case, who can you include in the trade? The only guys under contract would be Parker, Duncan, Hill, Mahinimi, and hopefully Mason and Ginobili.

I really think there is no summer of 2010 plan and I think if they do anything it will be this season or next because those are the seasons they actually have expendable salaries they can move.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Hopefully they'll utilize their expiring deals and nab someone this summer, but Pop and R.C. can be pretty stubborn and it wouldn't surprise me to have us endure another summer like the one we chased all the premier guys (Kidd, O'Neal, etc.) and then had to come back around to lesser acquisitions.

2010 is foolish for the Spurs. Every other team is clearing cap room, there's only so many premier FAs, and the majority of those other cities are going to be more desirable to FAs than SA. If we don't make a move this summer we'll be overpaying for lesser players next summer.

[Agloco]

The overwhelming consideration is the economy. Will it have recovered by 2010? It's pretty damn stagnant and most projections say that we will have a hangover until at least the summer of that year. It's the reason you see teams like NO shopping Chandler for apparently no logical reason.

My opinion is that the FO is setting us up to get the franchise through the recession in one piece. All of the expirings in the next year or two are a testament to that. The 2010 FA market is a distant second.

[coyotes_geek]

CG: A tidbit from Hollinger on what might happen to the cap & tax in the near future.

*************

• Finally, let me share a juicy tip from a league source on the state of the salary cap. Basically, the situation will be worse than many people expect, and the luxury-tax level next season will be set even lower than what several teams are currently planning for. The implications will be huge as we head into next season.

Here's the more interesting part of what I was told: Next season's luxury tax might just be the tip of the iceberg. The salary cap (and thus the tax level) could drop massively in 2010; my source used the term "bloodbath."

This would have huge effects on the pursuit of big-game free agents, of course, but also on the luxury-tax level for that season … which could push many more teams over the line and lead to fire-sale-type trades.

All this would be a prelude to the labor negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement in 2011. If money gets as tight as some project, things could get ugly.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/column...otebook-090215

[exstatic]

My guesses are Joe Johnson or Chris Bosh. Bosh will be 26, and JJ will be 29 in 2010.

[lurker23]

My guesses are Joe Johnson or Chris Bosh. Bosh will be 26, and JJ will be 29 in 2010.

If we retain our cap space going into that summer, those would be the two I'd target as well (with the obvious caveat that you tell LeBron he's more than welcome to join the Spurs if he wants to play in a smaller market for a championship).

[exstatic]

My opinion is that the FO is setting us up to get the franchise through the recession in one piece. All of the expirings in the next year or two are a testament to that. The 2010 FA market is a distant second.

Yeah, except they started this in the summer of 2007 right after the championship when a lot of the 2008 class re-signed with their teams. They signed Bonner and Oberto to 3 year deals and re-worked Bowen to 2010, too. The economic bust wasn't even on the horizon. Make no mistake, this was set up to reel in a big fish for the Spurs. What it turns out to be used for could be another story, but it was never intended as a cushion to ride out an economic storm.

[benefactor]

Though I would love to have Bosh I think we will probably be outbid for him. I have always felt Joe Johnson would be a good target and with him turning 29 he could be lured away to a contender knowing that now is probably his best opportunity to sign a contract with a team that could possibly get him a ring.

But we said that about Maggette too.....

[exstatic]

Though I would love to have Bosh I think we will probably be outbid for him. I have always felt Joe Johnson would be a good target and with him turning 29 he could be lured away to a contender knowing that now is probably his best opportunity to sign a contract with a team that could possibly get him a ring.

But we said that about Maggette too.....

Bosh is making good coin right now on a bad team. We'll see if he tires of that. I'm not sure anyone else, other than Toronto, will be able to "outbid" us. Everyone is pretty much limited by the same MAX ceiling of salary and years. The Spurs will have the cap room to go toe to toe with anyone.

[coyotes_geek]

Bosh is making good coin right now on a bad team. We'll see if he tires of that. I'm not sure anyone else, other than Toronto, will be able to "outbid" us. Everyone is pretty much limited by the same MAX ceiling of salary and years. The Spurs will have the cap room to go toe to toe with anyone.

Not unless they're prepared to run off Manu and Mason.

[mountainballer]

Bosh is making good coin right now on a bad team. We'll see if he tires of that. I'm not sure anyone else, other than Toronto, will be able to "outbid" us. Everyone is pretty much limited by the same MAX ceiling of salary and years. The Spurs will have the cap room to go toe to toe with anyone.

no. as CG said, cap wise they need to drop Manu and Mason.
but the more important point will be SA and Tim's age. Tim in his prime plus max money plus a Pop road trip thru Slovenia once was enough to get plan E or F, namely Rasho.
2010? Tim will be 35 and player searching for a superstar to ride him to a ring will doubt his ability to do this for some more years. (even if he had some more productive years).
and I heard SA isn't exactly like NY or LA, when talking about an attractive promotion market for FAs.
they are definitely not toe to toe.

[picnroll]

CG: A tidbit from Hollinger on what might happen to the cap & tax in the near future.

*************

• Finally, let me share a juicy tip from a league source on the state of the salary cap. Basically, the situation will be worse than many people expect, and the luxury-tax level next season will be set even lower than what several teams are currently planning for. The implications will be huge as we head into next season.

Here's the more interesting part of what I was told: Next season's luxury tax might just be the tip of the iceberg. The salary cap (and thus the tax level) could drop massively in 2010; my source used the term "bloodbath."

This would have huge effects on the pursuit of big-game free agents, of course, but also on the luxury-tax level for that season … which could push many more teams over the line and lead to fire-sale-type trades.

All this would be a prelude to the labor negotiations for a new collective bargaining agreement in 2011. If money gets as tight as some project, things could get ugly.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/column...otebook-090215

That's what I'm thinking. These owners have to be hurting, some massively. For instance, last June CAT was at 80 now it' 30. And league revenue must be falling off a cliff and will fall further.

Another thing to factor in

— Most significant, Stern and Hunter both acknowledged that they’ve been talking in advance of the expiration of the league’s current collective bargaining agreement. The agreement runs through 2010-11 (the league has the right to extend it a year), but both sides acknowledged that, with the worldwide economic downturn, the agreement may need to be altered before it expires—which would be an unprecedented move.

“I can’t tell you that we are close to reaching a deal,” Hunter said. “But we have been talking, and I’m obviously going to be as diligent as I can be on behalf of our players. I can say to you that we are anxious to reach a deal. I’m going to do everything within my power—everything within reason to reach a deal—but I’m going to be an aggressive negotiator on behalf of the players.”

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slu...=tsn&type=lgns

[picnroll]

Factors tht might influence 2010:

1. Multiple teams are lining up for the megastars.
2. Unless they were shorting the market or investing in gold, owners have taken a massive in their net worth.
3. Reasonable chance we’re entering a long financial winter (prolonged severe recession/depression)
4. If so franchise revenue will decline, ad revenue will decline, franchise value will decline.
5. CBA will be renegotiated to take effect in 2011 I believe and those negotiations are likely going to be hard (lock out/strike?). Owners undoubtedly have already laid out some game plan and their spending for 2010 probably takes into account the landscape they envision post-CBA agreement. Maybe shorter years, lower max, maybe things like revenue sharing, who knows but it’ll be factored in and make most owners cautious in 2009 and 2010. For instance would someone want to lay on massive salary and then have a CBA negotiated with extremely punitive measures for those over the cap.

[coyotes_geek]

Factors tht might influence 2010:

1. Multiple teams are lining up for the megastars.
2. Unless they were shorting the market or investing in gold, owners have taken a massive in their net worth.
3. Reasonable chance we’re entering a long financial winter (prolonged severe recession/depression)
4. If so franchise revenue will decline, ad revenue will decline, franchise value will decline.
5. CBA will be renegotiated to take effect in 2011 I believe and those negotiations are likely going to be hard (lock out/strike?). Owners undoubtedly have already laid out some game plan and their spending for 2010 probably takes into account the landscape they envision post-CBA agreement. Maybe shorter years, lower max, maybe things like revenue sharing, who knows but it’ll be factored in and make most owners cautious in 2009 and 2010. For instance would someone want to lay on massive salary and then have a CBA negotiated with extremely punitive measures for those over the cap.

That's a good list. The dangerous thing for small market teams like San Antonio is that in this environment any team who is willing to take on salary is going to be able to really steal talent from teams whose owners are feeling the financial strain. We're probably going to see more Gasol/Camby type trades where teams dump players just to free themselves from the financial commitment.

Could also be a pretty rough stretch for second tier free agents.

[picnroll]

That's a good list. The dangerous thing for small market teams like San Antonio is that in this environment any team who is willing to take on salary is going to be able to really steal talent from teams whose owners are feeling the financial strain. We're probably going to see more Gasol/Camby type trades where teams dump players just to free themselves from the financial commitment.

Could also be a pretty rough stretch for second tier free agents.

Since there are more small market and mid-tier market owners than big market owners I'm hoping something like revenue sharing gets shoved down the throats of the Buss's, Dolan's, Allen's, Cuban's. Otherwise for me, if it plays out where big market temas can stock up and small markets have to dump, it's syonara NBA.

[2YiZ]

I envy any team without a 2010 plan. I bet a minimum 70% of the big name FAs keep their jerseys.

[exstatic]

Not unless they're prepared to run off Manu and Mason.

no. as CG said, cap wise they need to drop Manu and Mason.
but the more important point will be SA and Tim's age. Tim in his prime plus max money plus a Pop road trip thru Slovenia once was enough to get plan E or F, namely Rasho.
2010? Tim will be 35 and player searching for a superstar to ride him to a ring will doubt his ability to do this for some more years. (even if he had some more productive years).
and I heard SA isn't exactly like NY or LA, when talking about an attractive promotion market for FAs.
they are definitely not toe to toe.

You can't build a team around a 30 YO SG and a 33 YO SG (Manu and Mase in 2010) when Tim is gone. That's what 2010 is all about. They've been doing little re-loads on the fly, but hard choices will have to be made if the Spurs want to secure the future of the franchise. Over the past 6 years, Manu has definitely made summertime decisions that were good for him, but detrimental to the Spurs and his career longevity. Those chickens may now be coming home to roost. Don't be shocked by out of the box thinking like letting Manu go, trading Tony to Toronto for Bosh and going with Hill at PG, etc. I doubt Toronto would get a better offer than that for a S&T, and we'd have the inside track on Bosh if he's interested. It would re-load a franchise type player in SA and cut payroll. We'd only really be paying Bosh and Tim.

[coyotes_geek]

You can't build a team around a 30 YO SG and a 33 YO SG (Manu and Mase in 2010) when Tim is gone. That's what 2010 is all about. They've been doing little re-loads on the fly, but hard choices will have to be made if the Spurs want to secure the future of the franchise. Over the past 6 years, Manu has definitely made summertime decisions that were good for him, but detrimental to the Spurs and his career longevity. Those chickens may now be coming home to roost. Don't be shocked by out of the box thinking like letting Manu go, trading Tony to Toronto for Bosh and going with Hill at PG, etc. I doubt Toronto would get a better offer than that for a S&T, and we'd have the inside track on Bosh if he's interested. It would re-load a franchise type player in SA and cut payroll. We'd only really be paying Bosh and Tim.

As any homeless guy in a rainstorm will tell you, sometimes life is better inside the box.

[exstatic]

As any homeless guy in a rainstorm will tell you, sometimes life is better inside the box.

Sometimes you can walk across the street to a nice warm shelter with food and cots. Beats the out of a box.

[stxspurs]

ian might be worth a damn by then.....who knows

[picnroll]

Don't be shocked by out of the box thinking like letting Manu go, trading Tony to Toronto for Bosh and going with Hill at PG, etc. I doubt Toronto would get a better offer than that for a S&T, and we'd have the inside track on Bosh if he's interested. It would re-load a franchise type player in SA and cut payroll. We'd only really be paying Bosh and Tim.

I suspect the major stars will be looking for:

1. A major market with cap space and
2. The ability of the signing team to match them up with another major star

SA won't be able to meet either of those requirements.

[exstatic]

I suspect the major stars will be looking for:

1. A major market with cap space and
2. The ability of the signing team to match them up with another major star

SA won't be able to meet either of those requirements.

How many teams will? How many teams may actually use their cap room on 2010 now in this economic climate?

[baseline bum]

You can't build a team around a 30 YO SG and a 33 YO SG (Manu and Mase in 2010) when Tim is gone. That's what 2010 is all about. They've been doing little re-loads on the fly, but hard choices will have to be made if the Spurs want to secure the future of the franchise. Over the past 6 years, Manu has definitely made summertime decisions that were good for him, but detrimental to the Spurs and his career longevity. Those chickens may now be coming home to roost. Don't be shocked by out of the box thinking like letting Manu go, trading Tony to Toronto for Bosh and going with Hill at PG, etc. I doubt Toronto would get a better offer than that for a S&T, and we'd have the inside track on Bosh if he's interested. It would re-load a franchise type player in SA and cut payroll. We'd only really be paying Bosh and Tim.

Why would they trade Parker for Bosh if they could just sign him outright? No one ever gets a decent deal in a sign and trade when their star can just walk to the other team on his own. That'd be a great way for Colangelo to get blacklisted by the NBAPA if he takes a hardline stance to make sign and trades impossible.

I think I'd rather sign Manu for two more seasons though unless the team can acquire one of Bosh, Stoudemire, James, and Wade. Then go into full lottery mode and rebuild from the draft once Tim retires. I certainly don't want to see them throwing big deals at mid-level talent like they did with Nesterovic.