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Well, it seems to rise when the admin announces something positive and falls when the opposite is true. Maybe a case of ad hoc ergo propter hoc, but that's the trend I've noticed.
And assuming that the DOW is a good indicator of our overall economic health (just give me this for a moment, please), will Republicans:
A) Admit that the economic plan seemingly has worked
B) Cite some other factor for why the DOW is rising
C) State that while the plan may have worked in the short-term, it will doom us long-term and we are merely putting off the inevitable
My guess is 5% A, 30% B, and 65% C.
Well, it seems to rise when the admin announces something positive and falls when the opposite is true. Maybe a case of ad hoc ergo propter hoc, but that's the trend I've noticed.
I'll admit that it is the responsibility of the admin if you admit that oil prices dropped because Bush lifted the ban.
i heard in the club that the market is directly related to people liking or hating obama.
Are you serious?
yes, but that thread has been kind of silent lately.
I'd say your guess on those percentages is correct. Those same percentages also probably worked for democrats when the dow was falling who thought that:
A) The economic plan seemingly was not working
B) Cited some other factor why the DOW was falling
C) Stated that while the plan might not be working in the short-term, it will still save us long term and we are merely waiting for the inevitable.
In these turbulent times, movements in the Dow indicate nothing. The volatility is so high that major indices such as the Dow and the S&P can move 20% in a month. That is huge.
By the way, I predict we are probably heading for another downturn in the Dow and the S&P. I'd say the Dow will not go over 8,500 and the S&P over 870 before they both turn south and test the years' lows.
There, I said it!
Yeah, all it might take is some unemployment report and the Dow could take a crap again.
Making sense of March Market Madness
Sluggish demand for a recent Treasury auction and the big rally in stocks could mean investors love risk again. Or it could just be end of the quarter noise.
By Paul R. La Monica, CNNMoney.com editor at large
Last Updated: March 26, 2009: 2:36 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Treasury Department is busy holding auctions of U.S. debt to raise much-needed funds for the government's numerous financial rescue packages.
The bad news is that Wednesday's sale of 5-year notes was not met with as much healthy demand as previous Treasury auctions. And even though demand was stronger for an auction of 7-year notes Thursday, interest from foreign buyers was a bit low.
That could be a sign of a supply problem, a glut of Treasurys on the market.
It also may be an indication that foreign investors that are big holders of Treasurys could be growing more nervous about the health of the U.S. economy, particularly its rising debt load and increasing budget deficit.
To that end, China's premier said earlier this month that he had "some worries" about the security of U.S. bonds and the head of China's central bank proposed earlier this week that a new global currency be created to replace the dollar as the international reserve currency. China is the biggest holder of U.S. Treasurys.
In addition, European Union president and Czech prime minister Mirek Topolanek said Wednesday that the stimulus package passed by Congress last month was "a way to ."
But the somewhat sluggish demand might also be a good sign. It could mean that investors have stopped worrying so much about the U.S. economy, and instead of flocking to the safety of Treasurys are now looking at stocks as a better buying opportunity.
In other words, shares of U.S. companies may finally look more attractive. And if that's the case, the need to bailout more firms in the financial and auto sectors could diminish over time.
Stocks have surged in the past few weeks, including a nearly 500 point gain in the Dow on Monday following the release of the Treasury Department's plan to help banks get rid of toxic assets. Since stocks hit their lowest point of the year on March 6, the S&P 500 is up nearly 23%, leading some investors to hope that stocks have finally hit bottom in this bear market.
And bank stocks have been leading the charge. The KBW Bank Index, which includes beaten-down financials such as Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), is up more than 65% from its March 6 low.
So what gives? Several investing experts said investors may be once again trying to call the bottom, even though it's too soon to do so.
"Investors are looking at the March bottom as potentially being THE bottom. So they seem willing to step up and buy stocks because once the train leaves the station, you've got to be on it. But that may be premature," said Paul Nolte, director of investments for Hinsdale Associates, a money-management firm based in Hinsdale, Ill.
One bond investor added that the latest moves in the bond and stock markets have been driven by a lot of "noise."
Robert Smith, chairman of Smith Affiliated Capital, a fixed-income money management firm based in New York with $2.2 billion in assets, said some of the recent economic data, such as better-than-expected housing sales numbers and a surprise jump in durable goods orders, have muddled the picture for bond investors. Typically, bond prices fall and yields rise when the economy is on the upswing. (Prices and yields move in opposite directions.)
Another fixed-income analyst agreed that the latest data could be helping stocks in the short-term. But he said it's too soon to say that investors are now more eager to flock back into stocks for the long haul and shun safer bonds.
"By no means is the economy out of the woods. It's not a sign of a sudden strong turn in the economy. It just offers potential hopes that the economy may, in some areas, be forming a bottom. And that's not necessarily a bad environment for Treasurys," said John Canavan, an analyst with Stone & McCarthy, a Princeton-based fixed income and economic research firm.
Canavan added that the Federal Reserve's announcement last week that it would start buying $300 billion in long-term Treasurys over the next six months also adds to the confusion in the market since prospective buyers in Treasury auctions already know that the Fed is going to be a participant in debt sales.
"The Fed's announcement will keep something of a floor over Treasury market prices and a ceiling on yields. So I think we still see strong demand for Treasurys," he said.
And neither Canavan nor Smith said they were overly concerned by comments made by Chinese leaders about the U.S. economy. Smith described the remarks as a "rattling of the cages" that helped spur the Fed into deciding to start buying Treasurys sooner rather than later.
With that in mind, Smith said he wasn't sure how much longer the rally in stocks could last. He said part of it could be due to short-covering, the phenomenon that takes place when short sellers buy back stock that they borrowed and immediately sold.
He also said the calendar could be playing a role in what's going on: the first quarter ends on Tuesday and as such, big ins utional investors may be rushing to position their portfolios accordingly.
"I don't sense that there is a tremendous interest in stocks yet. We're getting to the end of the quarter and you're seeing the typical noise making," Smith said. "There isn't a race for more risk."
You're leaving out the liberals who thought we shouldn't be bailing out fat cats anyways. Adding that as category D, I'd say,
A - 10%
B - 25% (BUSH!)
C - 25%
D - 40%
What do you mean by "economic plan"?
I think its disgusting how we think we can manipulate the market like this. The whole idea of this stimulus thing is just absurd. Let the economy fix itself people.
lol @ ppl who think this is an ideological issue.
Goldman Geithner donated $1T to private investors to buy toxic trash. DOW makes huge jump. Not really a fundamental indicator of total economy's health.
fake demand and hype created by the media and govt so ppl/investors start investing or using money
BAM! All of the sudden CNBC and Cramer are gushing about Obama...that can't be good....
So is this Bush's fault too?
I'll go with "B", but remember. I'm a conservative libertarian. Not a republican...
I say that because the markets are responding to the democrats finally stopping trying to tinker with the economy. It's at a bottom. Invester are now jumping in to buy low, sell high. The markets are not recovered, or in recovery yet. They will not be in recovery until they are above 10,000 and not recovered until they are above 14,000.
Ps...
This administration and congress can cause fear again in those who make capital investments, and make the markets drop again so easily...
I agree with you.
Like clockwork.. I can attribute any happening to anything I want to..
Are you addicted be being wrong?
I am beginning to wonder. This post will return to haunt you.
... this so shortly after multiple threads ing about Geitner's plans to expand federal oversight to hedge funds and other hybrid financial businesses that hasn't yet been withdrawn? That proposal would seem to indicate that the "democrats" haven't stopped "trying to tinker with the economy".I say that because the markets are responding to the democrats finally stopping trying to tinker with the economy.
Oops.
You suck, and that's sad.
Do you think I care? I guess I should have specifically stated "in my opinion..."
If you say so. I'll admit that I haven't followed it real close, but from what I know, even democrats are backing of from the agendas they set on this path. I believe that's partially why the markets stopped dropping. Still... I do believe they will drop again.... this so shortly after multiple threads ing about Geitner's plans to expand federal oversight to hedge funds and other hybrid financial businesses that hasn't yet been withdrawn? That proposal would seem to indicate that the "democrats" haven't stopped "trying to tinker with the economy".
Oops.
You suck, and that's sad.
Now hasn't there been less negative news in quarterly profits and other reports than predicted as well? That changes investors opinions too.
Yes. I am very biased against the democrats. So much, that I firmly believe they will open their pieholes again about taxing those who produce and invest, and drive stock prices down again.
What's so complicated? Obama has just thrown billions of dollars (not from his own money of course, he used your money, and the money of your children, and your grandchildren) to the Wall Street, to the deep pockets of shareholders and top managers of Dow companies.
When the government gives away subsidies to companies, of court the value of those companies increase. When a government borrows money from future generations, of course the value of the current economic agents increase - they're using free wealth.
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