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i hope Odom leaves. please, Odom, leave; anywhere BUT LA!
Roundtable: Analyzing free agency
SI.com's NBA writers size up the first two weeks of free agency.
1. Which team has helped itself the most so far in the offseason?
Ian Thomsen: It has to be the Lakers with their addition of Ron Artest, which enables the champion to improve -- the hardest of all moves to make. (I'm assuming Lamar Odom will re-sign with L.A.) Artest allows the Lakers to match up on the wing against Boston's Paul Pierce and Ray Allen (ditto Richard Jefferson and Manu Ginobili of the Spurs) while adding toughness and defense, which were the big needs for Los Angeles in its recent series against Houston and Denver. This move gives Kobe Bryant the potential to win two more rings and match the six of Michael Jordan.
Jack McCallum: The Lakers. They win the championship and pick up Artest? Are you kidding? Perhaps these are famous last words, but I can't see any problems developing between Kobe and Artest. And coaching Artest is bound to galvanize Phil Jackson on the bench. I think they will re-sign Odom and should be as strong as last year.
Chris Mannix: San Antonio. If you had peeked at Gregg Popovich's Christmas list the last few years, at the top it would have read ATHLETIC SMALL FORWARD WHO CAN SCORE. Well, Christmas came in June this year for Popovich. Jefferson is a solid half-court player (he shot a career high 39.5 percent from three-point range last season) and one of the top up-tempo forwards in the league. San Antonio also bolstered its frontcourt with Antonio McDyess and picked up what many NBA types believe is a steal in the second round in Pitt's DeJuan Blair.
Steve Aschburner: I like what San Antonio has done. The acquisition of Jefferson is almost like adding Michael Finley in his prime, and with the three key guys -- Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Ginobili -- to free up Jefferson for what he does best. McDyess is less nasty but more skilled than Kurt Thomas, and rookie Blair already might pick up any slack in toughness. I'm expecting to see the Spurs around for much of May next spring.
Scott Howard-Cooper: The Spurs. While there is no question Washington has put itself in position for the biggest increase in wins with the positive moves of adding Flip Saunders as coach and Mike Miller and Randy Foye in a trade, San Antonio made two moves to remain a le contender. Jefferson is a perfect fit in playing style and personality. Left shorthanded inside by that trade, the Spurs answered by signing McDyess. Two veterans with extensive playoff experience, two players to address needs, two potential critical acquisitions.
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2. Which team has taken the biggest step back?
Ian Thomsen: Houston will go into next season without Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady or Artest. The Rockets are facing a horrid season while Yao and McGrady recover from their injuries, but next summer provides an opportunity to reinvent their team with gobs of cap space (even if Yao doesn't opt out of the final year of his deal).
Jack McCallum: Obviously it's the Rockets. They lost Artest. Yao could miss the entire season. And McGrady is coming back to take every single shot and be injured half the time. Do the math. There will be no lifting off for the Rockets.
Chris Mannix: Milwaukee. Poor Michael Redd. Every time the Bucks look like they are taking one step forward they take two big steps back, and Redd is the one left to deal with the mess. By dumping Jefferson in a cost-cutting deal and by allowing Charlie Villanueva to leave via free agency, the Bucks have ensured themselves another season near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.
Steve Aschburner: It is hard for me to take Orlando as seriously as I did through three rounds, and into a fourth, of this year's playoffs. Hedo Turkoglu was a terrific fit in their system, a playmaker who hid some of the small-backcourt problems. Vince Carter? Too little, too late, and in my eyes he's not the shooter or ball handler that Turkoglu is. Giving up Courtney Lee also is a loss for the Magic, based on his growth from unheralded rookie to valuable postseason piece, and Dwight Howard will miss Marcin Gortat (though Brandon Bass was a nice pickup). Also, Orlando sure fiddled with its team based on Jameer Nelson's half a season as an "All-Star." I wouldn't be banking on equal or better production over a full 82 next season.
Scott Howard-Cooper: It's too early to say for sure, without knowing what will happen with Andre Miller in Philadelphia, Paul Millsap/Carlos Boozer in Utah, Marvin Williams/Josh Childress in Atlanta, David Lee in New York and other free-agent and trade scenarios that could become tipping points. But for now, the Rockets are the clear front-runner. Not all by their doing, but setting a torrid pace nonetheless. Seemingly in an instant, Houston went from the emotional high of a gutsy second-round loss against the Lakers to having the bottom drop out.
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3. What offseason move will have the greatest impact on the season?
Ian Thomsen: I expect the Lakers to be the team to beat as Artest is incorporated into their system. Think about adding him and a healthy Andrew Bynum to the reigning champs for a full year. All of the contenders have improved, from Orlando (Carter) to Cleveland (Shaquille O'Neal and Anthony Parker) to Boston (Rasheed Wallace) to San Antonio (Jefferson and McDyess) to Dallas (Shawn Marion) and even Denver (which added Ty Lawson as a dynamic backup to Chauncey Billups). It should be a terrific season.
Jack McCallum: Leaving aside Artest, I'll go with Wallace in Boston. First of all, the Celtics get a lot more interesting, if only to watch 'Sheed's screeds in Beantown. They also get a lot more theatrical, with Wallace now vying with Kevin Garnett to see who can draw the most pregame attention to his own bad self. Having said that, the 'Sheed signing also makes Boston the team to beat in the East, provided Garnett is healthy.
Chris Mannix: San Antonio can probably tack on three more years as a le contender with the addition of Jefferson, who replaces the aging (and increasingly less ineffective) Michael Finley and Bruce Bowen. Jefferson's ability to score in a variety of ways will take pressure off the Spurs' Big Three and allow Popovich to keep the minutes down for his aging and aching players (Duncan, Ginobili). Jefferson's ability to get out in the open floor will help San Antonio (which has two quick point guards in Parker and George Hill) become a decent running team.
Steve Aschburner: Wallace is the perfect player going to, for him, the perfect team. He needs to and wants to defer to Boston's Big Three, enjoying himself without an overload of responsibility. He addresses a real need, too, with his size, shooting, defense and, to be fair, championship experience, which makes this addition a lot more helpful than the Stephon Marbury, bad-penny pickup last winter.
Scott Howard-Cooper: Millsap, no matter how it turns out. If the Jazz don't match Portland's offer sheet, Utah takes a big hit that could put it on the brink of missing the playoffs. If the Jazz do match, Utah faces money concerns that will probably force a Boozer trade. That not only affects the season ahead in Salt Lake City but also the landscape of the entire league.
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4. Which offseason move is destined to disappoint?
Ian Thomsen: If Millsap's offer sheet goes unmatched and he goes to the Trail Blazers, that would be a very solid move to deepen their frontcourt. But what happens if Utah retains him? The Blazers were positioned uncomfortably this summer as a team with specific needs, in terms of the position, style and age of the free agent they were seeking. They wanted to improve their team without upsetting the chemistry and balance established by their young players. That's why available talents like Carter (too old?) and Artest (too risky?) didn't quite make sense. But they need to do something with the cap space -- although they can wait to see if a trade into their space will develop by the February deadline. It makes no sense for the Blazers to jump into a big free-agent move that doesn't fit within their narrow parameters, but at the same time it must be difficult for them to watch other teams improving while Portland patiently seeks the right opportunity.
Jack McCallum: I'll say Turkoglu in Toronto. I like Hedo and think he'll have a productive season, but it won't lift the Raptors into the top four in the East, which was the general idea after last season's disappointing 33-49 campaign.
Chris Mannix: Shaq in Cleveland. Is the Big Twitterer an upgrade over Ben Wallace? Sure, but I can name 50 players who fit that description. Shaq certainly gives the Cavs a low-post presence and, provided he can stay healthy, will help Cleveland's push for a 70-win season. But Shaq will have difficulty against Cleveland's two most formidable East opponents, Boston and Orlando. For all the talk about Shaq's ability to defend Dwight Howard in the low post, the Magic aren't going to put him there. They are going to be utilizing his speed and athleticism outside on the pick-and-roll, where Shaq is an enormous liability. Same against Boston, which can play Wallace and Garnett in tandem and dare O'Neal to defend them on the perimeter. As good as O'Neal still is, he isn't what the Cavs really needed.
Steve Aschburner: Can I say Zach Randolph, even though he wasn't a free agent? Rats. OK, then, I'll say Trevor Ariza. Even though he's younger and more stable than Artest, Ariza is the sort of role player who gets better as his team does, too. On the Lakers, who were poised to chase a championship, he was versatile and valuable; on a Rockets squad that might be taking a large step back, Ariza may seem more ordinary and replaceable. He needed more time breathing the championship air to absorb it fully.
Scott Howard-Cooper: Villanueva to the Pistons. What does it tell you when his previous team, the Bucks, doesn't even extend Villanueva a qualifying offer despite averaging 16.2 points and 6.7 rebounds? Doesn't even want the right to consider matching? He got a reported five years and $35 million from Detroit and a lot of other teams don't mind a bit.
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5. How do you see the top four teams in each conference right now?
Ian Thomsen: Here's how I think it will go during the regular season. In the West: Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Mavericks. Maybe I'm assuming too much to think that Duncan and Ginobili will be healthy next season, but if so, the Lakers and Spurs will distance themselves from the rest of the conference. In the East: Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta. The Celtics will sacrifice a few wins in hopes of pacing their veterans for the playoffs. The Cavs will be the team to beat in the East.
Jack McCallum: In the East, Boston is the cream of the crop, with the healthy-Garnett caveat. How can you not like Cleveland teaming Shaq with LeBron? I hated what Orlando did, but then again, I've never been a Vince Carter fan. I can't see the Magic getting back to the Finals and may battle Atlanta and a rejuvenated Detroit to hang on to fourth. In the West, the Lakers are definitely still the team to beat, and the Spurs' offseason moves (landing Jefferson and McDyess) put them back in the hunt. I see Utah, Portland and Denver battling for third and fourth ahead of sinking Houston and still-trying-to-figure-it-out Dallas.
Chris Mannix: If we're predicting regular-season records, in the East it's Cleveland (should be a monster regular-season team), Boston (the Celtics still need one more wing player to win back their le), Washington (adding Miller and Foye to the backcourt and Saunders on the bench makes the Wizards a scary offensive team) and Orlando (Carter can still play pick-and-roll but he's not as complete a player as Turkoglu). Boston my pick to come out of the conference. In the West, it's the Lakers (with a small-but-growing fear in the back of my head that Artest might prove to be a distraction), Spurs (not that Popovich cares about the regular season), Nuggets (bringing back the same core) and Trail Blazers (any offseason addition will only make a talented young team stronger). I see San Antonio emerging from a bloody conference playoffs.
Steve Aschburner: In the East, Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and either Chicago or Washington are my preseason top seeds. The Wizards have the best chance of installing a completely new culture, while getting a boost from injured regulars Gilbert Arenas and Brendan Haywood. Atlanta just seems very Peter Pan-ish, determined never to grow up. In the West, I see Lakers, San Antonio, Dallas and Utah, at least while waiting for the Millsap-to-Portland and Carlos Boozer-to-someplace speculation to sort itself out.
Scott Howard-Cooper: East: Celtics, Cavaliers, Magic, Bulls. While signing Wallace is filled with positives, the real issue in Boston isn't the move the Celtics made. It's the move they didn't make. How is Rajon Rondo feeling about being on a team that has questions about his approach, and how will he do in the face of the trade rumors that will inevitably come next season unless the C's start 19-1? West: Lakers, Spurs, Nuggets, Trail Blazers. The defending champs put themselves in position to be even better next season by signing Artest. L.A. needs to keep Odom to make that an absolute statement, but that deal should get done. The Nuggets accomplished their No. 1 summer goal by re-signing Chris Andersen and added desired depth at point guard by trading into the first round to get Lawson. Now let's see how the Linas Kleiza free agency plays out.
i hope Odom leaves. please, Odom, leave; anywhere BUT LA!
Odom leaving or staying doesnt nearly have as much of an impact as Ginobili being hurt or healthy. Weather the Lakers sign Odom or not I dont care, I just want a crack at them with a healthy team, and with a healthy team I like our chances.
LOL I'm gonna laugh when Artest is blowing up the Lakers by midseason next year.
Artest is a better player, but the Lakers don't need him, and Artest has blown up every team where he wasn't able to be The Man. He'll say all the right things, but he's gonna pout when he doesn't get as many touches as Kobe...or even Pau...
Adding Blair, Jefferson and Dice were HUGE moves. But like you guys point out, health is going to be the biggest factor this year. Duncan and Manu are key and need to be healthy in order for us to get it done.
So that's what happened to Houston...
The best that happened to Houston was McGrady getting injured. That freed-up Ron Ron to be da man in the backcourt.So that's what happened to Houston...
Actually they DO need him. The Lakers are a weak champion, as champions go, and they know it. Hence a risky upgrade that may not be one at all.
The Spurs did more in the offseason than LA.
(Jefferson + Blair + 'Dice) > (Artest - Arriza)
Artest didn't have a meltdown in Houston or anything, but then the rockets sure weren't going to try very hard to keep him around either. Houston still becomes the latest team to prove that the Ron Artest experiment never works.So that's what happened to Houston...
???
I hate the lakers as much as the next guy, but come on. A championship is a championship. Winning 65 games and making it out of the west isn't weak.
The weakest champion of the decade, probably. This team has a lot of problems. A weak bench, very soft inside. They faced no real opposition in the playoffs and the one scrappy, confident team they faced gave them everything they could take.
Hey, they won the championship. Great. But there's a reason the top contenders spent a lot to upgrade -- they know the boss is very much ripe for the taking.
I could maybe say the '06 Miami Heat team was as weak as this one. They're ripe for the plucking.
yeh, my bad. that is true right there.
i'll take my chances with any team with a healthy ginobili - hopefully somewhere along the lines of 2005.
Remember, too, that this same Lakers team got absolutely destroyed by a healthy Boston team the year before.
lol at the guy who said wizards will be in the top 4. they'll improve no doubt, but no way they're a top 4 team yet.
as for the spurs, i'm glad to see they all recognized the spurs will atleast be 2nd in the west. is it just me or is the west getting a little less compe ive?
But the Rockets still didn't blow up like everyone seems to think..
I think Spurs fans are underrating Artest's capabilities. Everyone is citing a hypothetical situation where Artest will "blow up" team chemistry, etc, etc. Well what if he doesn't? You can't deny what he brings to the table.
With that said, until proven otherwise, the Lakers are the team to beat. And with the Artest signing they just got tougher to beat.
Artest is gonna kill on the Lakers. I don't comprehend how ppl can claim Artest will harm them. He has made every team he has been in better(brawl wont ever happen again)
Brawl won't happen again but trouble in the streets of LA will...
And yet LA sent Boston into a tailspin twice this year - once when LA was without Bynum on a long road trip.
LA faced a touger gauntlet of physical teams this year in prep for the Finals than last year. Utah last season was more physical than even SA - that's why LA wasn't ready for Boston.
Hate as you will - LA showed they were tough enough by smacking the best teams on their own court - sending messages throughout the reg season.
Whoever walks away with the gold proves they were tough enough.
Eh, it's a very good team, but a lot of it looks like smoke and mirrors. The '06 Dallas team won a ton of games, too, and got destroyed by the Warriors in the first round. The Lakers have to pray they don't hit physical teams with good scoring options - they won't be able to handle it. Same as against that healthy Boston team. I haven't seen domination like that in a long, long time.And yet LA sent Boston into a tailspin twice this year - once when LA was without Bynum on a long road trip.
LA faced a touger gauntlet of physical teams this year in prep for the Finals than last year. Utah last season was more physical than even SA - that's why LA wasn't ready for Boston.
Hate as you will - LA showed they were tough enough by smacking the best teams on their own court - sending messages throughout the reg season.
Whoever walks away with the gold proves they were tough enough.
Key with Artest is having guys who he believes he should be 2nd too. The few times Yao and T-Mac were healthy, Artest was the good soldier. When they were gone is when he went rogue and Hou had no other option to balance him out.
Artest works for LA because
1 - He has obvious respect for Phil and Kobe. Idolized the Jordan Bulls.
2 - He's tried to get to LA for years, he'll fully embrace the opportunity and step in line.
3 - He has triangle experience - played it when he initially got to Chicago - so it will shorten the learning curve.
4 - He shot 40% from 3 and that was often off forces or creating his own. He'll be able to catch and shoot more because Kobe and Gasol will always demand double-teams. Him shooting 40-45% won't be a reach.
5 - Ron is Hollywood - like Shaq. The off-court opportunities will keep him happy when shots aren't there.
You couldn't pick a more perfect position for Artest than in LA right now.
Artest must also beleive he is 3rd behind Gasol or Lakers are in trouble
No team with a ring has smoke and mirrors.
Dallas didn't have the cred of rings backing them up.
Boston dominated but it took them 6 games? That's hardly dominating. Take aside Game 6 and the avg margin of victory was 6.6 points (10, 6, 6, 6, 5).
LA got their ass beat in Game 6 - no question. But the series as a whole was close. Similar to the Lakers/Magic. LA won by 5 but 4 of the games were close.
Disagree there because Gasol doesn't look for shots. Even when LA feeds him in the post he is a very willing passer.
For the season, Pau shot 12.9 per game, Bynum 10, LO 9, Fisher 8.4.
For the playoffs, Pay shot less - 12 per game, LO 9 per game, Ariza 8, Fisher 7.3.
Pau can scorer but he's very effective. Besides a couple post ups per game - most of his points are off putbacks, dump offs, kick outs, or Fts - all secondary scoring. Best garbage man ever really.
Artest's shots won't be an issue.
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