ESPN Offseason Buzz

[carrao45]

Anyone who has insider. Could they please post the article. thanks

[JJ Hickson]

This aint 1849. Quit panhandlin ho. Pay for it yourself.

[2Cleva]

NBA Offseason Buzz: L.A. Lakers
Kobe's production should slip next season, but Farmar could pick up slack
Comment Email Print Share By John Hollinger & Ric Bucher
ESPN Insider




Want to know who's heating up for a big season on the hardwood? Insider is tapping into John Hollinger's projected player efficiency ratings to see who's trending up and down across the NBA. Ric Bucher rounds out the report by examining a pivotal player you'll want to watch as the season approaches. The series begins with the champs, the Los Angeles Lakers.


The Lakers avenged their 2008 NBA Finals face-plant against the Boston Celtics, Kobe got his ring sans Shaq and Phil Jackson broke his tie for championships with Red Auerbach. So what's their motivation this time around?



"Proving that Ron Artest isn't le-prohibiting crazy" probably won't be on the cover of the media guide, but it's hard to find a more compelling answer at the moment. It's easy to forget now, but the one question looming over the Lakers last season was whether they had the necessary killer instinct and mental toughness to win a championship. Now the question is, did they forge some permanent inner steel by overcoming Houston, Denver and, finally, Orlando, or will the removal of so many monkeys from so many backs cause them to lose that grit?



Oh, and what happens if Kobe's production begins to decline after his super season?



To see which player is taking off, who is crashing to earth and which name you'll need to know for the 2009-10 season, you must be an ESPN Insider.





Trending Up: Jordan Farmar

Last season: 9.93 PER
2009-10 projection: 12.68 PER

Farmar finished 59th in pure point rating, which was an inexcusable performance for a small, quick guard on a team with this many weapons around him. Even as a scoring guard he was lacking. He made only 39.1 percent of his shots from the floor, and his foul shooting (58.4 percent) has become absolutely indefensible. Overall, he ranked 62nd out of the league's 69 point guards in true shooting percentage and finished with a PER in single digits. For a healthy 22-year-old who posted a 15.29 PER a season earlier, it was an epic crash -- narrowly missing out on the league's largest decline:


Biggest PER drop, 2008-09
Jordan Farmar took a big step back last season, particularly considering his age relative to the other names on this list. (Minimum 500 minutes in both seasons)

Player Team 2007-08 PER 2008-09 PER Difference
Baron Davis LAC 19.85 14.54 -5.41
Jordan Farmar LAL 15.29 9.93 -5.36
Allen Iverson DEN/DET 21.06 15.89 -5.17
Earl Watson OKC 14.57 9.55 -5.02
Chauncey Billups DET/DEN 23.48 18.85 -4.63




On paper, Farmar enters the season as a quasi-backup who will split minutes with Shannon Brown behind Derek Fisher. In reality, much depends on which Farmar shows up. The guy from 2008-09 is unlikely to play much, but he has the talent to perform much, much better and showed it in the 2007-08 campaign. If he plays like that again, he'll blow past Brown and Fisher into the starting job by midseason, because he's clearly the most gifted of the three. He just hasn't determined how to translate his gifts into consistent offensive success yet. -- Hollinger



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Trending Down: Kobe Bryant

Last season: 24.46 PER
2009-10 projection: 22.65 PER

First, the bad news: A declining free throw rate is a fairly ominous canary in the coal mine, and Bryant is 31 years old with a lot of mileage on his legs. For that reason, I don't think he'll match last season's numbers.


Having said that, I wouldn't expect a precipitous decline, either. Bryant keeps himself in fantastic shape, has had few knee problems and has already shown he has the smarts to adjust his game to whatever new realities his body deals him. Additionally, the Lakers should be able to manage his minutes carefully and reduce the regular-season wear and tear. That, in fact, may be a bigger drain on his numbers than age -- if he plays, say, 34 minutes a game, his averages will drop no matter how well he performs. -- Hollinger



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Bucher's Name to Know: Andrew Bynum

You were expecting Artest, right? Well, it's already out there that Ron-Ron was nuttier in Houston last season than anyone realized and that he no longer has the athleticism to guard quick small forwards the way the departed Trevor Ariza did. Artest can be safely quarantined, though, if Bynum is once more the double-double machine he was right before he tore the medial collateral ligament in his right knee. In case anyone forgot, he was on a streak of five straight double-doubles for a total of 16 in the first 48 games.

Bynum never came close to that form upon his return, failing to get double-digit rebounds in a single playoff game. Concerns about his commitment to getting fit arose during his absence and he still looked to be favoring his right leg. Then issues bubbled up concerning Bynum's focus; rather than blocking shots and cleaning the glass, he seemed preoccupied with scoring, a far less vital ingredient. Nine times he scored in double figures but not once did he get more than nine rebounds. His blocked-shot production was sliced in half.

So if you want to be entertained -- or appalled -- follow Artest's antics. But if you want to know whether the Lakers can repeat or not, keep your eye on Bynum. -- Bucher

John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. Ric Bucher is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN Insider.

[Culburn369]

[First, the bad news: A declining free throw rate is a fairly ominous canary in the coal mine, and Bryant is 31 years old with a lot of mileage on his legs. For that reason, I don't think he'll match last season's numbers.


Having said that, I wouldn't expect a precipitous decline, either.]

Well, , Hollinger, you're covered no matter what Bryant does next season.

[2Cleva]

And rooting for Farmar? Please.

[carrao45]

Thanks

[DeadlyDynasty]

so that's the insight that espn has people pay extra for?

[VivaPopovich]

Farmar could pick up slack?

[Chieflion]

Farmar could pick up slack?

Come on, it is not as if there were Nazis on the basketball court.