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14/9 in less than 30 min.?!? would be nice
I made a thread about G Hill about a year ago, and we were able to predict his production!!!!
Its about time to make predictions about Bejuan's Blair second year as a spur
here is mine
27:6min per game; 14.4pts, 9.8Reb and 1.2Ast.
14/9 in less than 30 min.?!? would be nice
I've been saying that a very good performance from Blair would be:
25 mpg, 10.5 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 0.9 bpg.
Also, keeping his FG% above 50% would be impressive, and it would be nice to see his FT% improving to around 65% (not too unreasonable, considering he shot 60-62% in college).
I'm willing to accept a little slippage in his 55.6% FG% because:
a.) That number is very impressive to begin with.
b.) A sop re drop-off is wholly expected (e.g.- Duncan dropped from 54.9% to 49.5% his first year to second year).
c.) A drop in his FG% likely means he's attempting more shots that aren't dunks or lay-ups, a part of his game that most people agree he'll need to take the next step in this league.
it starts and ends with the minutes.
and with Splitter coming in and even assuming Tim's and Dice minutes go down, he won't see that much of an increase in PT. I guess 20, maybe 22.
25 would be a surprise (likely at the expense of Dice) and IMO the absolute limit.
(in case of no serious injury to either Tim, Dice and Splitter).
my prediction: 21 MPG, 10 PPG, 7.5 RPG.
I'm probably less enthusiastic than most about Blair's numbers next season. I'd say your prediction would probably be the best case scenario for next season.
There's something else,though - I don't necessarily think that an increase in his statistics would be the only way to gauge his improvement. I would be extremely happy for him if he keeps his numbers, or slightly increase them in a few more minutes, but show better defensive instincts and an improvement in his mid range J, even at the expense of his FG %, which would be expected. Just getting closer to finding his NBA niche would be an improvement IMO because right now I'm not sure where he stands - does his energy provide enough value so that he'd get minutes against taller/longer big men? Can he play within a structured offense or would he keep feeding off put backs, can he guard any decent low post player, etc.
I'd say improvement in his defensive mechanics and finding a couple more things to add to his game would represent more of an improvement than simply an increase in his statistics.
I'd go for : 20 mins, 8 pts, 8 rebs, 1 ast, ~ 50% FG & a better overall game.
First of all, barring any miracles, Blair isn't going to average double figures in scoring next season. We have at least 5 guys who can do that next year. With Splitter, that could very well be 6. Assuming that is the case (Splitter's arrival), Blair's minutes would not pass 23 minutes. I believe he is going to average 20 minutes next season. So, my prediction would be:
19.8 minutes, 8.7 ppg, 7.9 rpg, 0.9 apg, 0.7bpg, 0.6spg, 56.0 FG%
I expect him to be further along his development and hit the occasional mid-range jumper, but his main offensive game would still be offensive putbacks. He would have some big games and be inconsistent throughout the season.
21 mins, 8.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg
22 min
10 points 7.6 boards 0.7 blocks 1.5 assists
22 mpg, 9.4 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 1.0 apg, 0.6 spg, 0.6 bpg, 1.7 to, 3.0 pf, .520 fg%, .610 ft%
82 games played, 8 starts, 43 double-doubles, 4 foul-outs
At least take a 20% haircut.
While I have made arguments about what he could be I don't believe that he will be able to grow his game much past what it is now. He cannot allow taller players to post him up and he needs to develop a quick release mid range jump shot. Neither, of which I think he will do.
22 mpg, 9.2 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 52 fg%
A miracle like Popazit playing Blair more then 8 games a season at 30+ minutes isn't likely to happen, huh?
8/10
28/21
11/16
8/13
8/11
10/12
8/8
27/23
13pts/14 rebounds average in the 8 games Popazit allowed Blair to play 30+ minutes
*Many of those minutes with Blair at Center with Matt Bonehead as his Power Forward.
He could have a solid season with a 10/10 average but still needs to improve defensively if he wants to log major minutes. Was easily one of the worst 1 on 1 defenders and team defenders we had last season and that should be what he is working on. That could also keep him off the court
25 min 14ppg 7rpg
11 ppg, 8 rpg, 2 ast, and maybe a steal, or block on .502% shooting in 25 minutes.
Last edited by TimDunkem; 06-03-2010 at 11:35 PM.
19 mpg, 9.1 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 56% FG
24.6 mpg, 8.5 ppg, 7,6 rpg, 52 % FG
30 mpg, 45 ppg, 25 rpg, 60% FG, One Epic Beard
23.6 min, 8.6 pts, 5.4 rbs, .8 assts, 1 stl, .6 blk
25 mins 11.2PPG 8.7RPG .546 FG%
Without Splitter: 25 mins 12ppg 10rpg 53%
With Splitter: 17 mins: 7pts 8rpg 55%
But, we're trading Tony Parker for an aging Larry Bird and the draft rights to Reggie Miller and Larry Johnson, so I don't know. I don't know, can Bird rebound?
DeJuan on Facebook.
DeJuan Blair is in San Antonio working out.
Watching the Finals series; hopefully Blair becomes a much better version of Big Baby. Davis has a mid-range jumper and he's a good help defender despite being undersized. He's also full of energy and hustle.
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