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Pretty solid picks IMO.
My thoughts on the teams themselves:
1. The Colts have the best QB in the game by far and a heck of an offense. But injuries and a middle-of-the-pack defense are question marks. If they were to go all the way, I think they'd need the right matchups. In the Colts' case, a team with a good secondary and a balanced run/pass offense could trip them up. Which is one of the reasons why the Chargers have had success against them in the past. As a Steeler fan I'd rather face the Colts than the Pats because of matchup reasons.
2. The Pats' run defense is suspect but the pass D is pretty good. Their passing offense is great but the running game is mediocre. Which is why I wouldn't favor the Steelers against NE. But a team with a good running offense and good pass D (2007-08 Giants) could stop the Pats - this is also why the Jets beat them this year. Bengals-Pats would be interesting ... I don't think the Bengals secondary can stop the Pats' passing, at the same time I don't think the Pats can stop the Bengals' running game. It is interesting that at this point in the season, there is no team out there which is close to the top in both rushing offense and pass defense - which bodes well for the Pats in the postseason.
3. The Vikings have a solid passing game, solid running game and solid run defense. Their pass defense is poor though, which is why I think the Vikings won't win the SB if the Pats, Colts or Steelers represent the AFC, but can win if they play the Bengals.
4. The Saints have the best balanced offense in the league (top 5 in both run and pass), but they aren't stopping anybody on D. If defense wins championships, then they are in trouble if the opponent has a QB that can get it done late in the game.
5. The Bengals have out-physicaled the Steelers twice and have a great running game (though Benson is injured now). They don't have a good pass D which can be their bane against the Colts/Pats. Then again, those 2 teams won't be able to stop Cincy's running game either. If Carson Palmer and the passing O can step up their game, this team can go places. The definite dark horse (read: non Colts/Pats) contender in the AFC.
6. The Steelers have the best run D in the NFL and the #12 pass D. They have the #8 passing offense but a mediocre running game. On paper that looks kinda balanced, but I don't think the pass D is good enough to beat the Colts, Pats, Saints or Vikings. Polamalu getting injured often hasn't helped. But they do have an outside chance if they improve the pass D in the stretch run.
7. Dallas has a balanced run-pass offense and a decent run D. But their pass D is inadequate and they are a highly penalized, indisciplined team. I just don't see them beating Minnesota or NO in the divisional round.
8. Philly is hard to figure out. Good defense (pass and run), good passing O, mediocre running O. They have all the tools to be the dark horse contender (as they have been in recent years), but haven't shown any consistency from week-to-week. Which makes this team the hardest to predict. They maybe in the SB, they may be out in the wild card round. Not a predictable team by any means.
9. The Chargers are rock-bottom in rushing yards, but an LT-Sproles combo is still good on paper with the good passing offense that they have. They have a good pass D but inadequate run D. If they run into the Bengals or Steelers they are probably out. But they have a puncher's chance against pass-happy teams like the Colts or Pats.
10. NY Giants have underachieved this year. But they, like the Eagles, have the right tools barring injuries. Good run/pass offense, good defense. They are the only team in the NFL who are top 5 in overall offense and overall defense! But they haven't converted that to points. They are definitely the other NFC dark horse, but difficult to predict.
11. The pretenders:
- Arizona has a horrible pass D and won't go anywhere unless someone chokes.
- Houston has a good passing O that's all they have.
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