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Nice writeup.
I think we were all expecting something special out of Blair, but I doubt if anyone thought he would be this good this fast. His development in this league should be remarkable to watch.
As part of the Raising the Bar series of features, I've been asked to do player evaluation threads more regularly. With this current Spurs team, I felt there was no better place to start than the much praised rookie DeJuan Blair. While many people try to sum up Blair's strengths in one word (“rebounding”), I think I'd rather sum up the promise of DeJuan Blair in one sentence: In the NBA, it is rare that you can draft a player who not only has an immediate impact on the game, but also has the upside, at ude, and learning ap ude to improve his game significantly, both in the short-run and the long-run; DeJuan Blair is one of those players. Coming out of Pitt, Blair was a lottery-level talent, but make no mistake that even lottery players don't always have this combination on a regular basis. (And yes, there's no doubt Blair could have gone in the lottery; not only was he a first-team All-American (read: likely top 5 player in the country), he was often projected to go in the lottery before the bombs about his knees.)
Now don't get me wrong, I don't want to contribute to over-hyping Blair; there has been quite enough of that done already. Blair is a player who will always have certain limitations. In the NBA, he will never be listed any taller than 6'7”; despite his wingspan, this will always hinder him to a point against bigger players on both ends of the court. As athletic as he is, even if he lost 30 pounds, he'll never have the leaping ability or freakish athleticism of Dwight Howard. And of course, the elephant in the room is his lack of ACLs, which some feel will limit his longevity in the NBA. We could debate this point all day, but the bottom line is that only time will tell. The potential for injury is a sad fact of life for all athletes. Whether it's Tim Duncan or Bill Walton, Michael Jordan or Tracy McGrady, Greg Oden, Blake Griffin, or DeJuan Blair, the chance for injuries to play a major part of a career exists for all players, and all you can really do is hope for the best.
With all this in mind, let's take a closer look at DeJuan Blair.
Strengths
-Rebounding: Everyone knows about this one, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention it: DeJuan Blair is a rebounding machine. His big, soft hands allow him to corral anything that comes in his direction. (I could have written a whole section on his hands; they are immensely skilled, and allow him to rebound, collect passes, and handle the ball well, and will only help him more going forward.) He gets great position, times his leaps well, and has instincts for finding the ball off the rim that are only rivaled by some of the best rebounders this game has seen. This isn't hyperbole; his rebounding rates thus far compare favorably to many greats of the modern era. This is especially true on the offensive end, where he is not only skilled at bringing the ball down off a teammate's miss, but also at quick put-backs and tip-ins. Second chance points are often where games are won or lost, and as long as the Spurs give Blair steady minutes, it's a battle they have a great shot at winning.
-Ability to get to the basket: As we'll talk about later, DeJuan doesn't have much of a jumper as of yet. So, he has to score most of his points at the basket, either via dunk, layup, or put-back. Thankfully, getting to the basket is something he is very good at. I'm not just talking about getting offensive rebounds close to the rim, capitalizing on open cuts, or getting position close to the basket, though those are all things he is very good at. No, I'm mostly talking about the deceptively varied moves he uses to get past his defender and hit layups instead of short jumpers. He uses a variety of spin moves, pump fakes, and appropriate muscle to get to the hoop. Not only that, but there are times when he picks up his dribble 8-10 feet from the hoop and you think, “Uh oh, he's going to have to shoot from there.” Not so fast; with Blair's length and ability to lean into the shot, he frequently makes layups from positions usually reserved for floaters or baby hook shots.
-Ability to use his girth: Some guys have great size, but don't know how to use it; DeJuan Blair is not one of those guys. While he's not exactly an enforcer, he uses his size to get good position for rebounding and posting up, as well as planting his feet for strength on defense. This is especially evident on the offensive end, both in regards to offensive rebounding and forcing his way to the basket. That being said, he could stand to throw his weight around even more on both ends on a regular basis, which may be in the cards when fouling gets more under control (more on that in a bit). For now, however, his effectiveness in using his girth, particularly in his posterior region, is a big strength. (His butt is so famous that there was even a column written about it in the New York Times.)
-Hustle and effort: These last two strengths are noteworthy because they're hard, if not impossible, to teach. One thing that sets Blair apart from a lot of players is his tenacity and his overall engine. He doesn't give up on plays and he's isn't afraid to lay his body on the line for a loose ball. In this way, he's like an oversized version of Manu Ginobili. He dives to the ground, he fights for balls, he tips the rebound three times if necessary, and he flat-out hustles. Like Ginobili, this may end up limiting his minutes at times, but I'd rather have 25-30 minutes of a guy going 100% than 40-45 minutes of a guy mailing it in. From what we've seen of DeJuan Blair, he'll never mail it in.
-At ude: Finally, DeJuan Blair has a great at ude, both on and off the court. From all accounts, he's friendly (if somewhat soft-spoken in the press), humble, a team player, and eager to learn. On the court, you'd be hard pressed to find someone who has more fun and smiles more throughout the game than DeJuan. He has allowed more veteran players to take him under their wing, and seems to learn new skills quickly. When projecting the future development of a player, at ude is a very underrated indicator, and it's something that Blair has on his side. If Blair doesn't progress steadily over the next few years, it's not likely to be from a lack of trying.
Room for improvement
(Note: Most stats quoted in this section are as of the 2/4 Portland game.)
Like all players, Blair stands to improve on many facets of his game. One of the major differences with Blair, however, is that he has the skill and learning ability that not only makes most of these improvements legitimately possible, you feel like he could break out with these newfound skills sooner rather than later. In his short tenure with the Spurs, Blair has taken strides in his defense, fouls per minute, and shooting motion, among others. Here are some major points Blair stands to improve on going forward:
-Lateral quickness: While I never expect Blair to have the lateral quickness of a much lighter player, I feel that exercises and drills to increase his horizontal mobility would benefit him greatly, particularly on the defensive end. There are times when the man he is defending gets around him at ease, and there are also times when he takes too long to rotate toward a penetrating guard. An increased focus on this skill will help him on a play-by-play basis, and sometimes a split second is the difference between a block and a charge, between an easy layup and an altered shot, between giving up a baseline slam dunk and your opponent stepping out of bounds. Continued work in this area should benefit every part of this game, but especially his defensive presence.
-Free-throw shooting: Blair thus far has a FT% of 54%. In his college years at Pitt, he hit 62% and 61% respectively, so it's possible that he's underachieving by 5-10% as it is. While improving this shot isn't a NECESSITY per se (Shaq has been a star in this league with a career FT% of 53%), it would be a huge boost for a couple reasons. Obviously, going back to Shaq, you want to avoid any sort of Bump-a-Blair strategy. More importantly, however, with the offensive game that Blair has, he's capable of getting to the line A LOT. Improving his FT% to even 65-75% would be huge in the grand scheme of things. The good news is, this is something the Spurs have started to work on with Blair. While he hasn't shown major improvement in percentages (he's hit 54% the last 26 games vs. 50% the first 22), his current shot has much better arc than the old one, which is a big step toward being anti-Shaq in this regard. Only time will tell, but I believe we'll see a better percentage next year after an entire offseason of working with the Spurs coaching staff.
-Short to mid-range jumper: While Blair has shown minor flashes of being able to hit a 5-10 footer, it's not something we've seen consistently from him. As the next step in his offensive development, this needs to be a major focus for the big man. If he can even learn a steady 4-9 foot jumper, much less a 10-15 footer, he'll be extremely hard to stop. While this is far from the only thing Blair needs to work on, it's perhaps the most important one if he's going to go from role player to starter/star in this league. If you have to deal with Blair both under the rim AND 12 feet from the basket...watch out world, and good luck.
-Defense without fouling: As I mentioned before, Blair has already made strides in this department. In his first 22 games as a Spur, he averaged 6.11 PF per 36 minutes. In the last 26 games, he's averaged 4.38 PF per 36 minutes. While I don't expect him to get up to the level of Tim Duncan (roughly 2.6 PF per 36 minutes), getting below 4.0 would allow him to stay on the court for basically as long as he needs to. Also, this is a department where he needs more consistency; there are times when he still makes "dumb fouls," and if he can get the dumb fouls to smart fouls ratio at a better level, it will certainly help. However, as most of you know, defense w/o fouling is about more than playing more minutes. With proper focus, this generally yields more fundamental defensive techniques, and allows fewer points per possession for the opponent. In addition, fouling less on an average possession would allow Blair to play with more of what I call “smart aggression.” While swiping at the ball less is part of what will lower his fouls per minute, not being in foul trouble will allow him to pick his opportunities as they arise, to throw his weight around more and go after more blocks and steals when the opposing player makes mistakes. With DeJuan's length, increased steals and blocks in this regard could be a real asset.
-Endurance and conditioning: Don't get me wrong, for a guy of Blair's size and build, he's in good shape. He has a muscular physique and does a good job of running the floor in short bursts. Given my comments above about DeJuan's hustle and effort, I doubt he'll ever be a consistent 35-40 mpg player (again, similar to Manu Ginobili). However, while he has shown the ability to play 25-30 minutes in some games, he'll need continued conditioning work if he's ever going to be a regular starter in this league, playing 30 mpg in 82 straight games. There are times when he lumbers slowly up the court a bit after extended stretches of playing time, and there have been a couple brief stretches of the season where fatigue seemed to set in. In many ways, this point is true of all rookies who are used to playing 30-40 games in a college season; however, it is doubly true of a guy with Blair's build. As he gets more and more into "NBA shape," he will find it easier to keep his overall physical effort at improving his game on par with his superb mental effort.
So, all this being said, the main question I have about DeJuan Blair is this: what is his ceiling? Despite the quick learning ability he has shown, is it possible that he'll never develop a complete offensive game? Is it possible that, for one reason or another, he'll never be able to consistently play more than 22 minutes per game, and all we'll be able to do is marvel at his per minute numbers? Or, on the other end of the spectrum, is he capable of becoming the next Charles Barkley? Almost undoubtably, the truth is somewhere in-between. However, this is such a wide spectrum that I'm sure we'll all be anxiously watching and waiting to see the next steps in the future of DeJuan Blair.
Nice writeup.
I think we were all expecting something special out of Blair, but I doubt if anyone thought he would be this good this fast. His development in this league should be remarkable to watch.
Very nice
It is really difficult to get a grasp on players like Blair and their ceiling. At times he looks like Barkley and other times he looks like Craig Smith. That is to be expected with rookies, but like you mentioned his work ethic and ability to make large strides in short time should bode well.
He has some holes in his game (lack of offensive game, defense), but they are over shadowed by his benefits. Even if he does not progress beyond what he is today, he can still have a nice little career as an elite rebounder and energy guy. If he continues to improve, he can be so much more.
TMI, dude.His big, soft hands allow him to corral anything that comes in his direction. (I could have written a whole section on his hands; they are immensely skilled, and allow him to rebound, collect passes, and handle the ball well, and will only help him more going forward.)
There were several moments in my writing where things like that happened, or I was tempted to make George Hill jokes. However, I decided to just leave them as they were, and I stand by my words.
Good job. The only that I would add is a comment on perhaps his biggest strength after rebounding: he has an innate sense of proper spacing on the court which not many players have. He knows where passing lanes are and where to make cuts off the ball, and those are reasons he works so well with Manu.
In conjunction with this, his good hands, and understanding of ball movement, he is a deceptively effective passer. He's not going to rack up tons of assists, but when the ball gets to him it's going to make progress towards a good shot.
Very nice write up. Thanks for taking the time to raise the bar.
Excellent write-up. I think his career will lean towards the higher end of the Barkley scale. I just don't think he will ever get to the offensive level Barkley achieved.
Nice post. In regards to your comment about lateral quickness, Blair gets called for more blocks than any other player I can think of. For sure the most on the Spurs.
Whether it be rookie calls or that split second you talk about, a fraction of a second would make an immediate difference on the outcome of a lot of those calls.
Still we are really luck to have him. Coming into the season, I was overly optimistic about our bigs and thought they might even be a log jam. Imagine what the Spurs front court rotation would look like if the Spurs hadn't gotten lucky with DeJuan. I'd rather not...
Nice job. Very good analysis of our newest star.
Very good points and observations. Court spacing is sometimes a lost art in today's era of bigger players, and basic understanding of the appropriate concepts can make a huge difference; Blair has far more than a basic understanding.
If I was going to write up a section on that, I probably would have led it "instincts." However, there's a more accurate, albeit potentially more vague, description that fits: DeJuan Blair simply knows how to play basketball.
Blair's passing did surprise me. He can make some clever/tough passes.
Blair running the PnR with Manu is just crazy good for this early in his career.
The West would have been even more screwed if the Nuggets had drafted this kid
The Nuggets were going to draft him but got cheap at the last second and sold the pick
Lawson and Blair in the one draft?
Lurker23, good job raising the bar way up high.
Heavy D is going to be the future of this team, along with Hill, in around 4-5 years and he's going to be a borderline all-star.
This post is pro stuff.
I liked Ryan's comparison to Wes Unseld.
Barkley was naturally gifted with outside shooting instincts.
You can tell from the way Blair shoots FTs that he is not very natural as a shooter. That's a good indication.
Eventually he will get to 70% at FT with hard work, but shooting in traffic and with no time to think is a whole different matter.
I don't see a barkley in the making in Blair.
He could still end up being a heavier version of Adrian Dantley, though.
And yes, I agree that put it simply, Blair knows how to play basketball.
Which, in my opinion, cannot be said of 70% of NBA athletes.
Great post. Thanks lurker23.
Thanks for the read!
thanks for taking the time to write this...very in depth..great read
The only negative with Blair has been is foul trouble situations; too many, but he is a rookie
Other than that, he is not playing like a rookie
Wow, you haven't changed your sig and avatar for like two days, new record for you.The only negative with Blair has been is foul trouble situations; too many, but he is a rookie
Other than that, he is not playing like a rookie
Great read
Thanks!
Millsap is the measuring stick for me when it comes to Blair. It's obvious he's either already better than the majority of the other undersized power forwards or will be better than them in short order, but Millsap is a cut below an All-Star. Can Blair get to that level? I think he can, but I'm skeptical that he'll surpass Millsap as a player.
Wow, great work, lurker.
I noticed that his shot at the line at least looks better than it has at the beginning of the season, as well.
He'll never be a guy you can build a team around or something, but if his knees hold, we'll hopefully enjoy his rise to a solid role player, maybe even more than that.
I really loved his performance in the second quarter against Denver. He might have been our best player there.
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